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21st October 2021

Saturday TV Trends and Tips (15th May 2021)

After a week at York, the ITV cameras head to Newbury this Saturday to cover four races including the Lockinge Stakes, while they are also showing three contests from Newmarket – As always, here at TQ we've got all the big race trends and tips……

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.50 – BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f8y ITV

14/16 – Had between 1-3 previous wins
14/16 – Had won over 6f before
13/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
12/16 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
11/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
11/16 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Drawn in stall 3
3/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

Note: The 2020 running was staged at Windsor

TQ VERDICT: The Queen’s Tactical is the top-rated in the field (112) and after winning on his return at HQ last month will be a popular pick here. However, he’s got to give 3lbs away to the rest too and I’m not sure the drop back to 6f is in his favour. He looked to need every inch of the 7f last time – only getting up close home – so even though the softer ground will help I’m happy to take him on. Godolphin’s CREATIVE FORCE is progressing nicely and get the pick. Yes, the softer ground is a slight unknown as all runs have been on good or quicker, but he’s bred to get a bit further than this 6f trip so that will help if the ground gets any softer. Spycatcher and Mishal Star have live chances too, but with the Hannon yard having a good record in this race their HAPPY ROMANCE is the danger. This 3 year-old bounced back to winning ways at Chelmsford last time out in a Listed race, but that win was a lot better than it looked as she had to come very wide into the straight and looked to have no chance a few furlongs out. She’s a course winner here at HQ too and has also won on good-to-soft ground in the past.

 

2.25 - Al Rayyan Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

16/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
13/17 – Drawn 4 or lower
12/17 – Had run at Newbury before
12/17 – Placed favourites
12/17 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
11/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
10/17 – Irish bred
9/17 – Had won between 1-3 times before
8/17 – Aged 4 years-old
6/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Won last time out
3 of the last 12 winners were Godolphin-owned
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2

TQ VERDICT: All eyes here will be on the return of the 2019 St Leger winner – Logician. This classy staying grey, however, does need to bounce back from a poor run at York last October when beaten at heavy odds on. Yes, there is every chance that wasn’t his true running and he’s still only 5 years-old so can easily bounce back. The horse hung badly that day, but no other explanation was found to that poor showing. Therefore, a bit remains on trust to see if he’s the same horse as he was, and the safer call might be to side with the Haggas runner – AL AASY – who won the G3 John Porter at Newbury last month in easy fashion. He’s rated 3lbs lower than Logician and has to also give 3lbs away due to that G3 win this season, but he did it well and at least we know he’s fit and well. Of the rest, Thunderous, Rainbow Dreamer and Ranch Hand are all closely-matched on the ratings and if the main two faulter one of these should be picking up the pieces.

 

3.00 - BetVictor London Gold Cup (Open Handicap) Cl2 1m2f6y ITV

16/17 – Had won between 1-2 times before
14/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Carried 8-10 or more
13/17 – Rated 90 or lower
13/17 – Winners from stall 8 or lower
13/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Had won over 1m2f before
8/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/17 – Irish bred
6/17 – Raced at Newbury before (2 won here)
4/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

TQ VERDICT: 13 of the last 17 winners of this race came from stalls 8 or lower – this is, therefore, good news for Greystoke, Oz Legend, Dejame Paso, King Frankel, Tamborrada, Fountain Cross, Dingle and Bay Bridge. Of that bunch, the unbeaten Godolphin runner – Tamborrada, who is 3-from-3, will be popular but only just got home last time at Doncaster (neck) and is up another 8lbs here. Of those not mentioned, the Frankie/Gosden horse Highland Rocker has to enter the mix too if able to overcome the wide draw. He was a good winner at Ripon last time out and stays further than this 1m2f trip, while this is his handicap debut. Dubawi Sands and the Hannon runner – River Alwen – are others to note, but again have wide draws to contend with. So, the two to focus on for me are BAY BRIDGE and KING FRANKEL (e/w). The former comes form the Stoute yard that have a fair record in the race and will have Ryan Moore riding. He bolted up at Newcastle last month on just his third start (5 lengths) and is now into a handicap for the first time. 8st 10lbs and a mark of 90 looks fair and he also handled softer ground well enough on debut at Yarmouth last season. King Frankel is from another yard that have past winning form in the race (Mark Johnston) and is progressing well after a very easy (32l) win at Pontefract last time out. He’s another in to a handicap for the first time, but gets in here with just 8st 2lbs to carry and that is a very light burden.

 

3.35 - Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

17/17 – Won over a mile before
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
13/17 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won a Group One race before
12/17 – Aged 4 years-old
12/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/17 – Winning favourites
10/17 – Having their first run of the season
10/17 – Unplaced last time out
5/17 – Godolphin owned
4/17 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard (Has won the race 5 times in all)
4/17 – Won by a mare
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/17 – Won by a Cheveley Park stud-owned horse (won it 5 times in all)
3/17 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (has won the race 8 times in all)
1/17 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/3

TQ VERDICT: Some very nice sorts on show here, including the Aidan O’Brien-trained Lope Y Fernandez, who returned to the track with an easy win in a Listed race at Leopardstown last month. Prior to that he’s got solid G1 form and should not be far away. Mr Oberon is another that won on his return when taking the G3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes at Newbury and should make his presence felt. Top Rank is closely-matched with My Oberon based on last season’s form and can get involved too. But that trio all have it to do to topple the 125-rated PALACE PIER, who should really be adding this G1 to his tally. This Gosden/Dettori runner was super-impressive in winning the G2 Bet365 Mile by 8 lengths at Sandown earlier his season and on that form he’s the clear one to beat. Softer ground is fine if there is more rain and really if repeating that run from last time it should be Palace Pier first and the rest playing for places. The three already mentioned – My Oberon, Top Rank and Lope Y Fernandez – will be the most likely to give the selection the most to think about, but it’s unlikely to be enough.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

2.05 – Betway Fairway Stakes (Listed) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV

14/14 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Had won between 1-2 times before
12/14 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
12/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/14 – Favourites placed in the top three
12/14 – Had won over 1m or further before
11/14 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Draw 1,2 or 3
9/14 – Had raced at Newmarket before (Rowley)
8/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/14 – US-bred winners
4/14 – Godolphin-owned winners
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained John Gosden
3/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/14 – Ridden by William Buick
2/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

TQ VERDICT: Just the six runners here but it will be a shock the Hannon-trained Fancy Man, who is rated a lot higher than the others, isn’t going close here. He was last seen running third in the Chester Vase – only beaten 2 2/4 lengths – and that is the best form on offer here. However, there could be a big danger to the Hannon horse and that is the Ed Dunlop runner – JOHN LEEPER. This Frankel colt went into many a notebook last time out at Newcastle with an easy 4 length win and with only two career runs should have a lot more to come. This 1m2f trip clearly suited last time and back on the turf will be fine. He’s got a Derby entry too and is around 20/1 for the Epsom race, but could just have a bit more potential than the already exposed Fancy Man. Of the rest, Flyin’ High, Tasman Bay and Sea The Shells can do best.

2.40 –Betway King Charles II Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV

16/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
14/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Winners from stall 4 or lower
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Won only once before
11/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/17 – Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
10/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Trained by the Hills stable
2/17 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 6 winners)
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Ridden by Dane O’Neill
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

TQ VERDICT: The Hannon yard have won two of the last 6 runnings and will be trying to add to that with Thank You Next. This 3 year-old gets a handy fillies allowance (5lbs) from most of the others but you still feel has a bit to find on recent form. Gosden’s Fundamental wasn’t beaten far in a better race – the G3 Greenham Stakes – last time out at Newbury and can’t be ruled out, while the top two rated in the field – DEVILWALA and Cloudbridge – have to be respected, especially the former who has been running in much better races that this. The first-time blinkers are interesting and even though he was down the field in the 2000 Guineas last time, this drop into a Listed race and slight ease in trip will be to his liking. But a chance is also taken on the Jane Chapple-Hyam runner here – BELLOSA (e/w) – who bolted up on debut over this course and distance in April. She gets a handy 5lbs too off the males in the race, but we also know she handles the track well – none of the others are course winners. Yes, this is a step up in grade, but with the expected improvement she might just be worth chancing with Richard Kingscote a plus in the saddle.

 

3.15 – Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

17/17 – Had won between 1-3 times before
14/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Had won over 6f before
14/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
13/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
11/17 – Carried 8-12 or more
11/17 – Favourites placed in the top 4
10/17 – Rated between 91-96
10/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
6/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won by a mare/filly
3/17 – Won by the Kremlin House (Varian) stable
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1-8
9 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 3-7
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

TQ VERDICT: With 10 of the last 12 winners coming from stalls 1-8, then this is a good place to start with this 17-runner handicap. Those with this draw trend on their side are OPERATIC, DESERT GULF, JUST FRANK, PEROTTO, MR TRICK, BICKERSTAFFE, FIRST FOLIO and SHARK TWO ONE. Away from that bunch, the Eve Johnson-Houghton runner – Jumby – will be popular after a decent third here last time and that came being not the best away and also not getting the best of runs in the closing stages. Barney’s Bay, Seven Brothers and Jadwal are others to consider. But, I’m happy to go back to the key draw trend for the fancies with PEROTTO, FIRST FOLIO and SHARK TWO ONE (e/w) – the interesting ones. The first-named was a good second here last time and was only beaten a length behind a horse called Creative Force – the same horse that won the race Jumby finished third in. Therefore, on that line of form the two are closely-matched. This 3 year-old reared at the start that day so also wasn’t the best away, so did well to only be beaten a length. First Folio won on his return to the track at Yarmouth last month (3 ¾ lengths) and even though an 11lb hike for that looks harsh he’s got a good draw in 7 and looks to be going the right way. The final pick – Shark Two One – will be a fair price and hails from the Richard Fahey yard that have a good record in the race. This 3 year-old will need to improve on his return run at Donny, when 8 lengths behind Seven Brothers, but that should have blow away the cobwebs and probably came on ground that was plenty quick enough.

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