Welcome to Trainers Quotes!
30th July 2021

Saturday TV Trends and Tips (22nd May 2021)

More LIVE ITV4 horse racing this Saturday as the cameras take in nine races across three venues – Haydock, York and Goodwood – with the feature contest the Group Two Temple Stakes at Haydock Park.

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle – use these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

1.40 – MansionBet Watch And Bet Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m6f ITV4

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Carried 8-12 or more
7/7 – Drawn between 3-9 (inc)
7/7 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
7/7 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
7/7 – Aged between 4-7 years-old
6/7 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
6/7 – Won between 2-4 times before
5/7 – Rated between 95-102
5/7 – Carried between 9-1 and 94 in weight
4/7 – Aged 5 years-old
4/7 – Irish bred
4/7 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/7 – Had run at the course before (2 won)
3/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by Amanda Perrett
2/7 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/7 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: Just the seven past runnings to go on, but with ALL 7 recent winners carrying 8-12 or more in weight this is good news for STARGAZER, JUST IN TIME, AMTIYAZ, HYANNA and HOCHFELD. We’ve also seen all of the last 7 winners drawn between stalls 3-9, so of those already mentioned, STARGAZER, JUST IN TIME and AMTIYAZ fit the bill. Indigo Times will draw the eye with three recent AW wins, but is up another 3lbs here, is also in a higher grade and is 0-from-2 on the grass. With all of the last seven winners aged between 4-7 too, then this would be a negative for the 8 year-old Stargazer. So, that leaves us with AMTIYAZ and JUST IN TIME. The former raced a bit free over 2m last time at Lingfield in a Conditions race and didn’t last home, but back into a handicap here will help and should be fitter for that run as it came off 2 months off. Just In Time is a proven CD winner here that should benefit from stepping back up in trip today after probably finding 1m4f too sharp last time at Kempton. Softer ground is fine too and he’s dropped to a fair mark, that is 3lbs lower than his last win.

2.10 – MansionBet Beaten By A Head Festival Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

15/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/16 – Had won at least 3 times before
11/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
9/16 – Had run at Goodwood before
9/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
8/16 – Finished in the top two last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16– Ridden by Tom Queally
2/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Chris Wall
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

TQ VERDICT: A tight little Listed race with just five runners. The old-timers in the race – Desert Encounter (9) and Stormy Antarctic (8) – are the top two rated in the field and after both running well last time out command a lot of respect. Of the two DESERT ENCOUNTER is preferred after a solid second at Sandown in the G3 Gordon Richards Stakes and won’t mind any more give. He’s a strong-travelling sort and being the only proven course winner in the field must count for something. Majestic Dawn and Winter Reprise have a bit to find on form, but the other of interest is AL ZARAQAAN. This William Haggas runner was a fair fourth at HQ last time out, in a much better race than this – the G2 Jockey Club Stakes. He should also like the step back in trip, but does stay a bit further than this. Of the five runners, he’s only had six career runs and is the one that’s probably got the more improvement to come.

 

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)


2.40 – Williamhill.com Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) (4yo+) Cl1 1m6f ITV4

Just 2 previous runnings
Trainers John Gosden and William Haggas have won the race in the past
Trainer Roger Varian is just 3 from 48 (6%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: A couple of Irish raiders here make the race a bit more interesting, with the Joseph O’Brien-trained Mighty Blue and the Jessie Harrington runner Flor De La Luna making the trip over. Both have the form to go well and Mighty Blue heads here having won well at Gowran Park last time out. Believe In Love has won 4 of her 6 starts on the turf and was a real improver last season – this Roger Varian runner is probably the one to beat, but does return from a 210-day absence. So, the call goes to the only course winner in the field – MAKAWEE. This 6 year-old was a close second at Goodwood last time out over 1m4f, but the step back up to 1m6f here is a plus and she beat another of today’s runners – Tribal Craft – by 5 ½ lengths last season too. Of the rest, Urban Artist did well last season to win three times and hails from the in-form Hughie Morrison yard that have been having plenty of winners in recent weeks.

 

3.50 – William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl2 5f ITV4

Only 6 previous runnings
5/6 – Raced in the last 2 weeks
5/6 – Winning distance ½ length or less
4/6 – Drawn in stalls 5-9 (inc)
4/6 – Didn’t win last time out
3/6 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
3/6 – Returned between 5/1 and 9/1 in the betting
2/6 – Aged 4 years-old
1/6 – Winning favourites
Duke Of Firenze won this race in 2019
Copper Knight won the race in 2017
Trainer William Haggas has a 20% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Roger Fell is just 4 from 82 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Paul Midgley is just 3 from 74 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan is just 4 from 98 (4%) with his older horses at the track

TQ VERDICT: The old-boy Duke Of Firenze won this race in 2019, when it was last run, and is still showing signs he’s in love with his racing with a decent AW campaign. He gets in here with just 8-0 in weight and is 7lbs lower than when taking this prize in 2019. However, the call is to stick with another past winner of this race – COPPER KNIGHT (e/w), who won this in 2017. This 7 year-old bounced back to winning ways at York last week, beating Mulzim by ½ a length. Yes, he’s up 5lbs for that win, but is still looking fairly well treated, having won this race off a 5lb higher mark in 2017. Softer ground is fine too and he’s clearly in good order with himself after that return to form last time and can go close again. These two past winners are also the only two CD winners in the field. Of the rest, Pendleton and Justanotherbottle head here off the back of good recent runs and the Scott Dixon-trained ZARGUN (e/w) – is another that caught the eye last time after a close third at 125/1. This former German sprinter has some good form in his old country – placed at Group level – and with that last run also coming here at York, we know the track suits. That also came over 6f, but he ran well for much of the way to suggest the drop back to 5f is another plus. The final one to note is the William Haggas runner – HURRICANE IVOR. This 4 year-old is having it’s debut for the yard after coming over from France. The Haggas team have a decent 20% record with their 4+ year-olds at the course too and with this being his first run back since being gelded this is also interesting. He’s also run well fresh in the past, so the 218-day absence isn’t too much of a worry.

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)


1.55 – Casumo Horse Racing And Sports Betting Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 7f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer William Haggas has a 26% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ed Walker has a 26% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 4 from 81 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Karl Burke is just 2 from 36 (6%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: No past runnings to go on, but there are a few trainers that do well at the track with their 4+ year-olds. Firstly, the William Haggas camp has a decent 26% record here, so their TOM COLLINS (e/w) is interesting, despite running down the field last time at Thirsk. This 4 year-old should be fitter for that run and the drop back to 7f should help. They are also putting the cheekpieces on for the first time here, while the very quick ground last time was probably not in his favour. He’s got decent form on a softer surface too, so a much-improved run looks on the cards here. Sunset Breeze and Ffion are others to respect, while with average strike-rates at the track with their 4+ year-olds the Burke and Fahey runners Lord Oberon and Gabrial The Devil are overlooked. Cold Stare and Lincoln Park are the only two CD winners in the field, but the other with good form on a softer surface is the Ed Walker-trained MOLLS MEMORY (e/w). Add in the yard have a good 26% record here with their older horses, plus this horse – despite not winning – has run well from three races this season and is now back down to her last winning mark.

 

2.25 – Download The Casumo App Today Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV4

Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Winners aged 4 or 5
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
6/6 – Came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
6/6 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
5/6 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
5/6 – Unplaced favourites
5/6 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
5/6 – Winners carried 8-13 or more
5/6 – Rated between 90-98
4/6 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
2/6 – Trained by Mark Johnston
0/6 – Winning favourites
Lucky Deal won this race in 2019
Trainers William Haggas, Mark Johnston (2), Tim Easterby, Brian Ellison and Lucy Wadham were previous winners of the race

TQ VERDICT: Just the six past runnings of this race, but with ALL six past winners failing to win last time out, this might be deemed a negative for Green Book, Hiroshima and Rajinsky. The consistent Postileo is probably the one to beat, but he did finish second in behind Green Book last time out at Chester – beaten 4 ¾ lengths. He does, however, have a 7lb weight pull this time and you feel the slight drop in trip will favour the Varian runner – Postileo – this time too. But the two of interest here for me are FRANKENSTELLA (e/w) and FUTURE INVESTMENT (e/w). The former was a fair fourth at York last time out, but was also hampered in that race and still only beaten 4 ¾ lengths. Softer ground is also a plus, having won on this ground last season and also gets in here with a light racing weight of just 8-9. Future Investment wasn’t disgraced in the Chester Cup last time (9th) as only beaten 6 lengths that day. He’s down a pound for that, but was also sent of as joint favourite that day. He’s still got a small bit to prove, with his last win coming off 5lbs lower, however, looks the sort with more to come and Oisin Murphy catches the eye in the saddle.

 


3.00 – Join Casumo Today Bowl Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

17/17 – Had won between 1-3 times before
16/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
15/17 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
15/17 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/17 – Placed last time out
13/17 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/17 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
10/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of last 7)
David Probert has ridden 2 of the last 10 winners.
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: A tricky race with seven of the 10 runners all last time out winners. Of that bunch though, the Andrew Balding-trained NEBULOSA might be the answer though. This 3 year-old has done well to win her last two over 7f and the step up to a mile might bring out even more. She has winning form on soft ground too and will be fitter for a recent win at Goodwood with that coming off a 204-day break too. Dark Lion and Laos the are two top-rated in the field and can go well, but as a result do have to give weight away and 13 of the last 17 winners carried 9-1 or less. Teodolina is the only CD winner in the field and did it well at Ascot last time out – she’s up 6lbs for that though. The Mark Johnston yard have a good record in the race – winning 2 of the last 7 – and have a fair contender again in Headingley, but WOBWOBWOB is the other pick. This Adrian Keatley runner was well-backed last time out when winning easily at York and could have more to come now upped in trip. Yes, he’s up 8lbs for that win and his previous try over 1m resulted in just a third. But that also came on ground that was probably too quick for him – the softer ground clearly suits better, which he’ll get here, so he is worth another chance over this distance.


3.35 – Casumo Bet10Get10 Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 6f ITV4

15/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
14/15 – Had won over 6f before
13/15 – Had won between 1-3 times before
13/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – From stall 5 or higher
8/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Came from stall 8 or 9
3/15 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/15 – Raced at York last time
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
2/15 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2009 and 2015

TQ VERDICT: The unbeaten Dragon Symbol will be popular – he’s won all four starts in the style of a very nice sprinter in the making, but is up into a Group Two race here so have a lot more on his plate. He’s also going to be tackling much softer ground with all wins coming on a quicker surface – therefore, he’s got a bit to prove for me and might not rate much value. The Lir Jet is interesting back in trip too having run a bit keen over 7f last time out at Newbury in the Greenham, but it was still a top effort to be a close third and has to enter calculations. Any support in the betting for the Irish raider – Laws Of Indices – should be noted too, while Method was a Listed winner last season and should have more to come with just four career runs. But the two I like here are LIGHT REFRAIN (e/w) and UMM KULTHUM (e/w). The former is a royal runner that was a nice Listed winner at Nottingham last time out over 6f. That win came in soft ground too and this is a race the Haggas yard have done well in over the years – Tom Marquand rides and she also gets the handy 3lb fillies’ allowance. Then Umm Kulthum, who is the top-rated in the field (110) stands out as she also gets the 3lbs fillies’ allowance. She didn’t quite see out the 7f last time at Newbury in the Fred Darling Stakes so the drop back to 6f will help. With a good level of form last season, that included a G3 win at Ayr last September, further add confidence.


4.10 – Casumo Best Odds Guaranteed Temple Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV4

17/18 – Trained in the UK
16/18 – Had won over 5f before
15/18 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
12/18 – Raced within the last 2 months
11/18 – Placed third or better last time out
11/18 – Favourites that were placed
11/18 – Had won a Group race before
9/18 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Won their latest race
2/18 – Owned by Qatar Racing (2 of last 6 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of last 4 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Charles Hills (last 2 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Henry Candy
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 4 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 6/1
7 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or lower

TQ VERDICT: No Battaash this season, who has won the last two runnings of this race. Que Amoro is the top-rated in the field (112) and has a good record fresh so is certainly a big player here. But the unknown is the ground with her as all her runs have been on much quicker ground. Both Jabbarockie and Declaring Love head here on three timers so are clearly in great form, but this is a step up and they both have a bit to find on these level-weights terms. But I think the John Quinn pair – Look Busy and LIBERTY BEACH – might be the ones to focus on. They are both rated 109, so there is nothing between them and the pair also both have decent form at this level. Look Busy will have Oisin Murphy riding too and has winning form with cut. The only niggle with her, for me, is that he’s often taken a few races each season to get going, so even though he’s a course winner, the 230-day break is a small worry. In contrast, Liberty Beach, who is another course winner, has a good record off a break, winning first time out for the last two seasons. He’s gone well in soft ground too and we know he stays a bit further than this 5f trip too, which will help in conditions.

Comments are closed.

TQ Newsletter
Get the latest news from Trainers Quotes here
We respect your privacy.