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30th July 2021

Saturday TV Trends and Tips (24th July 2021)

It’s King George Day at Ascot this Saturday as some of the best middle-distance horses in the world line-up for this lucrative Group One. We’ve four LIVE ITV races to take in at the Berkshire track, while there’s also three races at York that are headlined by the Group Two Sky Bet York Stakes.

As always, we’ve got all the key trends for LIVE ITV Races this Saturday (24th July 2021) – use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners and narrow down the runners.

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends

 

1:50 - Princess Margaret Keenland Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

15/18 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/18 – Had won just once before
15/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/18 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
13/18 – Won over 6f before
11/18 – Foaled in either Feb or March
9/18 – Winning favourite
8/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/18 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Won by the Hannon yard
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
9 of the last 15 winners were Irish bred
9 of the last 15 horses from stall 1 were placed
4 of the last 9 winners came from stall 1
Under The Stars (25/1) won the race in 2019

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newbury

TQ VERDICT: Some promising juvenile fillies in show here and having run a cracker to be second in the G2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at HQ last time out, the Stuart Williams-trained DESERT DREAMER sets a fair standard. This drop in grade slightly into a G3 will help and the stiffer Ascot track can also help as she was doing all her best work at the death last time out. Oisin Murphy takes the ride. Next best looks to be the Hannon-trained System, who actually beat Desert Dreamer on debut at Newmarket at the end of June so there should be a lot between the two, but I just feel the Williams runner has progressed well since in a better race than this and can reverse that form. Attagirl, Crazyland, Delmona and Nymphadora are others that have made pleasing starts to their careers and can go well, while with horses from stall one having a good record in the race, the Hollie Doyle-ridden NAZANIN (e/w), is of interest of those at bigger prices. She won well on debut at Newbury (soft), so any rain won’t be an issue, plus she’s had just over a month to get over that last outing.

 

2.25 – Porsche Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m ITV

9/10 – Carried 8-8 or more
7/10 – Winners between stalls 8-15
5/10 – Had won just once before
5/10 – Unplaced favourites
4/10 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/10 – Irish bred
4/10– Won last time out
4/10– Winning favourites
2/10 – Ridden by William Buick
9 of the last 10 winners returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
Trainer John Gosden won the race in 2020
Trainer Andrew Balding won the race in 2019
Trainer Clive Cox won the race in 2018
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2016
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2014
Trainer Hughie Morrison won the race in 2012

TQ VERDICT: Several past-winning trainers are back for more here with Hughie Morrison (Marsabit), John Gosden (Guru) and Andrew Balding (Mystery Smile) all having runners. Isla Kai has been in cracking form this season too and commands a lot of respect - he heads here on a four-timer and is closely-matched with the Gosden runner GURU, having beaten that horse by just a neck here last time. The weather will be key too, as there are reports of a lot of rain over the weekend, but I feel with Guru returning last time from a 3 month break, he can reverse that form with Isla Kai. This 3 year-old also gets in there with only 8-9 to carry and with only four career runs should have more to come. Fantastic Fox is another that’s sure to be popular returning to 1m. He clearly didn’t stay the 1m2f last time at Royal Ascot, but if there was any rain, I’m not sure if this would be a plus having been beaten soundly now the twice he’s raced on soft. Latest Generation has the form to be considered too, but the other pick is the Morrison runner - MARSABIT (e/w). This 3 year-old will have the services of Hollie Doyle and heads here having won three of his last four. He’s only got 8-3 to carry in weight and caught the eye - albeit in a lesser race - last time, when winning easily.

 

3.00 - Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV

18/18 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
18/18 – Had raced at Ascot previously
16/18 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
14/18 – Won over 7f previously
14/18 – Carried 8-9 or more in weight
13/18 – Favourites unplaced
13/18 – Won between 2-4 times previously
11/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
11/18 – Winners that came from outside the top three in the market
11/18 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
10/18 – Aged 4 years-old
7/18 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
6/18 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/18 – Won their last race
3/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/18 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/18 – Winning favourites
Trainer Richard Fahey has won the race three times in the last 11 years
12 of the last 14 winners ran at either Ascot, Newmarket or Haydock last time out
11 of the last 14 winners came from a double-figure stall
9 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 5 last time out
Blue Mist (9/2 fav) won the race in 2020
Raising Sand (7/1) won the race in 2019

Note: The 2005 running was staged at Newbury

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Richard Fahey has won this race three times in the last 11 years, so his two runners Tadleel and Gabrial The Wire are worth having on your radar at bigger prices. With 11 of the last 14 winners coming from a double-figure draw, this might be a way of knocking out 9 of the 22 runners, including the well-fancied Danyah (drawn 4), who was a solid second in the Buckingham Palace Stakes here at the Royal Meeting in June. But jockey Dane O’Neill was riding that day and it’s interesting he prefers to do the steering on another Shadwell horse - MOTAKHAYYEL, who was very impressive when winning at Newmarket last time out. This Richard Hannon runner is up only 3lbs for that 3 ½ length win, is a proven CD winner here at the track and has won on ‘good to soft’ ground, so a bit of rain would be okay. He’s drawn 19 of the 22 runners too and looks to have a big chance. The other Shadwell runner - Aldaary - is another CD winner and is respected but draw 2 might not be ideal. Matthew Flinders, Lord Rapscallion, Dance Fever and Star Of Orion are others that are drawn high and have been running well of last too. The Jamie Osborne-trained Raising Sands won this in 2019 and is back for more too - draw 12 will give him options and he’s rated 3lbs lower here too. Osborne also has CLIFFS OF CAPRI (e/w), who was runner-up in this race 12 months ago. He’s rated 2lbs lower this time and does seem to love it here at Ascot, where he’s also a CD winner. Softer ground will be okay and drawn 21 is a plus also. The final one to mention for me is the Hugo Palmer runner - ACQUITTED (e/w) - who ran well for us three weeks ago at Sandown (3rd). He gets in here off the same mark and stayed on well that day so should be doing his best work at the finish. Having won on heavy ground, then any rain will be fine, while in a race of this nature is still relatively lightly-raced with just 10 career outings.

 

3:35 - King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1) (British Champion Series) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f ITV

19/19 – Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
17/19 – Had won over 1m4f before
16/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
16/19 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
16/19 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
16/19 – Placed last time out
15/19 – Previous Group 1 winner
12/19 – aged 4 years-old
12/19 – Had run Ascot before
11/19 – Won their previous race
10/19 – Favourites that won
8/19 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
8/19 – Won at Ascot before
5/19 – Trained by John Gosden
4/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner in 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2017, 2019 and 2020
2 of the last 7 winners were that season’s Epsom Oaks winner
Galileo (2001) was the last horse to do the Derby/King George double
Trainer John Gosden won the race in 2011, 2014, 2017, 2019 & 2020
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1981, 1983, 2002, 2009, 2010 & 2018
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor won the race in 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999 & 2004
Trainer Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2001, 2007, 2008 & 2016
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 10/3

TQ VERDICT: A bit of a shame we’ve only got the six runners for this prestigious Group One, but it’s still a decent renewal. If the rain comes, then the David Menuisier-trained WONDERFUL TONIGHT (e/w) will have a much better chance and she could not have been more impressive when winning the G2 Hardwicke Stakes here last month - beating another runner, Broome. That runner-up has also since franked the form by winning a G1 in France, so the form looks solid. She’ll certainly need some of the wet stuff though, but the forecast is saying she might just get it! However, the race does revolve, around the Epsom Derby winner - Adayar - and the classy filly LOVE. The former was a slightly shock winner of the Derby in June but being a 3 year-old gets a handy 8lbs off Love and is only officially rated a pound lower than her. He clearly loved being steeped up in trip last time and handles soft ground should the rain come. It’s hard to knock his chance, but, for me, I’d just like to see him back up that Derby win first as in recent years we’ve had some strange winners of that Epsom Classic that haven’t quite fulfilled their claims. Therefore, I’d rather stick with LOVE, who has now won her last four races, including last time out in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes here. That came over 1m2f, but we know she stays this 1m4f trip well having bolted up in the Epsom and Yorkshire Oaks last season. She’s unraced on really soft ground, but breeding suggests she’ll be fine on it and even though it won’t be easy having to give 8lbs away to this season’s Derby winner, she’s a classy filly that I think is up to the task. We’ve also got the globe-trotting Mishriff and the Frankie-ridden Lone Eagle in the race. Both are certainly no back numbers either. Mishriff was last seen running third in the Coral-Eclipse, but my only niggle is that he’s got to give 3lbs away to Love and his only previous run here at Ascot wasn’t a great one. Lone Eagle was a close second in the Irish Derby under Dettori and has form on soft ground too. He gets weight from all the others barring Adayar too and having won four of his 7 starts is a fast-improving middle-distance colt that can’t be totally ruled out either.

 

York Horse Racing Trends

 

2.05 - Sky Bet ‘Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe’ Handicap (To Be Ridden By Professional Jump Jockeys) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 5f ITV

Just 3 previous runnings
3/3 - Aged between 5-7 (inc)
3/3 - Carried between 10-8 and 11-1 in weight
2/3 - Won by trainer Paul Midgley
1/3 - Winning favourite

TQ VERDICT: Jump jockeys riding over 5f on the flat - whatever next!? Anyway, probably not a race to get too involved in based on that, but the safest call if you do want a play in the race is to just side with the Paul Midgley yard - they’ve won the race twice in the last three years. The are clearly going for it again too with five entries - MID WINSTER, VENTURA EXPRESS, JAMES WATT, NIBRAS AGAIN and SON AND SANNIE. Of that bunch, the Sam Twiston-Davies ridden Mid Winster will be popular having won well at Doncaster last time. But is up 5lbs for that and has been beaten in her last three runs at York - that would be a concern. So, I’d rather side with his proven CD winners in the field - JAMES WATT (e/w) and NIBRAS AGAIN (e/w). The former won here last time out by only a head, but looked to have a bit more in-hand at the line so the 5lb rise looks fair. Top jump jockey Brian Hughes has been booked to ride too. Nibras Again only just failed to get up at HQ last time out over this trip and having run well the time before at Nottingham looks a sprinter running into form - Jonathan England will be the passenger. Of the rest, Dark Shot is often never far away, but does find it hard to win these days, while Secretinthepark and Eeh Bah Gum are the other two proven CD winners in the field to respect. Soul Seeker is the only other last-time out winner in the line-up too, but as s result is up 3lbs more in the ratings - with Tom Scudamore booked to ride though he still looks a big player and is sure to be involved.

 

2.40 - Sky Bet Dash Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV

17/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
16/17 – Had won between 2-6 times before
15/17 – Carried 8-12 or more
15/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Aged 5 or younger
13/17 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
10/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Raced at either Hamilton, York, Newmarket or Ascot last time
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/17 – Had run at York before
6/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/17 – Won last time out
10 of the last 15 winners carried 9-0 or more
Muscika (10/1) won the race in 2020
Dakota Gold (10/1) won the race in 2019
Flying Pursuit won the race in 2017 and 2018

TQ VERDICT: With 10 of the last 15 winners carrying 9-0 or more in weight, this is a plus for only the top five on the card - Lahore, Gulliver, Streamline, Venturous and Mondammej. It’s a race the Tim Easterby yard have a good record in so their runners - Golden Apollo (2020 & 2018 runner-up), Music Society, Flying Pursuit and Manigordo enter calculations. Of that bunch, his Flying Pursuit won this race in 2017 and 2018 so has the pedigree to go well. He’s rated 86 now too and with the last of those wins (2018) coming off a rating of 94, he’s got an obvious chance. However, of the Easterby runners, I was taken by the way MUSIC SOCIETY (e/w) finished last time out at Hamilton (2nd) and probably should have won. The horse didn’t get the best of runs but flew in the final furlong to lose by just a nose. Jockey Ella McCain rides again and can claim a handy 5lbs - with a bit more luck in-running he can go well. While Easterby’s GOLDEN APOLLO (e/w) has to go well again in a race he loves to run well in. This 7 year-old has finished second, fourth and second in the last three runnings of this race. He’s rated 3lbs lower than 12 months ago too and heads here in fine fettle after good runs at Thirsk and Pontefract.  We’ve also got another past winner - Muscika - in the race and he’s only a pound higher so has to be considered, plus the Scott Dixon runner - Giogiobbo - has found a new lease of life winning his last three and his latest 4lb rise in the handicap is offset by Kieran Schofield’s 5lb claim.

 

3.15 - Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2½f ITV

14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
13/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
13/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
12/15 – Had won over 1m2f before
12/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Had won at least 4 times before
10/15 – Rated between 111 and 117
9/15 – Horses from stall one that finished in the top two
8/15 – Had run at York before
8/15 – Ran at Sandown last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Aged 6 years-old
2/15 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Aspetar (11/1) won the race in 2020
Elarqam (7/1) won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: The 119-rated Armory is a good place to start having run Love to 1 ½ lengths when third in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out. This Aidan O’Brien runner is the top-rated in the field and back into a Group Two looks to have a big chance. But, that said, it won’t be easy having to give weight away to all the others, including the exciting MOHAAFETH, who has won his last four. This Shadwell 3 year-old colt is improving rapidly up the ranks and caught the eye again last time when bolting up in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot. He’s up again in grade here but it’s interesting that jockey Jim Crowley has come here instead of going to Ascot to ride. He’s rated 7lbs inferior to Armory as this stage of his career but gets a handy 12lbs from that rival in weight to swing things back in his direction. He looks an exciting middle-distance colt that I feel can continue his upward progression. Of the rest, Bangkok, Montatham and recent Ascot scorer, Juan Elcano, are all classy sorts on their day too and should make bold bids. However, they’ve all got a bit to find on the ratings and at the weights, so it would still be a shock if the solid Armory and the upcoming Mohaafeth aren’t fighting this one out - with the 12lb weight pull in favour of the Shadwell horse, that can be the difference for me.

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