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30th July 2021

Saturday TV Trends and Tips (26th June 2021)

The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to Newmarket, to take in three races.

Did you know - 16 of the last 19 Northumberland Plate winners were aged 6 or younger?

Plus, it’s also Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh - Here at TQ we've got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RacingTV)


2.05 – Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies’ Stakes Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

17/18 – Never raced at the track before
16/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
14/18 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
11/18 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
10/18 – Didn’t win their previous race
8/18 – Came from stall 4 or lower
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/18 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
7 of the last 10 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

TQ VERDICT: Plenty of unexposed 2 year-olds on show here but on form we’ve already seen on the track the George Boughey-trained OSCULA is hard to ignore. She was last seen running third in the G3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot on heavy ground, which was a top effort, but back on this quicker ground she should be bang there. The useful Mark Crehan, who has ridden her in all four career starts, remains in the saddle. The Boughey yard also run Cachet, who was just behind her stablemate in the Albany Stakes (5th) last time and is another to respect on the better ground too, while with a 26% strike-rate with his 2 year-olds at the track, trainer Mark Johnston Ellade is worth noting in the betting too. Of the rest, Canonized was a tidy winner at Windsor last time out over 5f, but will need to back that up over this 6f trip and in a better race. Jersey Rose, Little Prayer, Najat and Rock Melody are interesting too, but with a 33% record with his juveniles at the track the Karl Burke runner - HONEY SWEET (e/w) - is the other pick. This 2 year-old was a nice winner on debut at Nottingham in soft ground, so staying this extra furlong should be fine and has been kept fresh for this with a month to get over that last race. With the expected improvement she looks one to note.

2.40 - Close Brothers Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

9/10 - Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 - Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/10 - Had won over at least 1m4f before
8/10 - Won 3 or more times
8/10 - Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
7/10 - Placed favourites
7/10 - Rated 100+
4/10 - Winning favourites
4/10 - Had run at the track before
3/10 - Ran at York last time out
3/10 - Trained by David Simcock
2/10 - Ridden by William Buick
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: Just the seven runners here and several are on a bit of a recovery mission. The ratings suggest the John Gosden runner - Logician - is the one to beat as he’s got 5lbs in-hand on the rest. But the 2019 St Leger winner hasn’t progressed as many thought and having lost his last two races now does have a bit to prove. Yes, this drop into Listed grade will help and if back on song he’ll take a lot of beating, but I’d rather see it back on the track first. Pablo Escobar and Max Vega have the past form to go well too, but it’s the David Simcock yard that love to target this race - they’ve won the pot three times in the last seven years. Therefore, their old-timer, DESERT ENCOUNTER gets the call. This 9 year-old has returned this season in great form despite not winning, and ran the useful 2020 Oaks winner Love, to 4 ½ lengths last week in the G1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. This drop in grade will help, while the step back up to 1m4f is fine. He’s a horse that acts on any ground too and has run okay at the track in the past. Outbox, with Hollie Doyle riding is respected too, but the danger to the pick can come from PABLO ESCOBAR, who beat Desert Encounter at Goodwood last season and should be a lot fitter for his return run at Newmarket at the beginning of May.

3.15 – Close Brothers Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

17/19 – Won over 7f before
17/19 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
16/19 – Had at least 1 run already that season
13/19 – Aged 5 or younger
12/19 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/19 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/19 – Came from stall 3 or lower
9/19 – Unplaced favourites
6/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 10 runnings)
2/19 - Trained by Henry Candy (last 2 runnings)
8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
Limato won the race in 2019 and 2020
Sir Dancealot won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

TQ VERDICT: A decent and competitive renewal of this Group 3 - there looks to be many chance. With 8 of the last 11 winners though coming from stalls 5 or lower, then this is great news for APOLLO ONE, MOTAKHAYYEL, LORD OF THE LODGE, KINROSS and ROYAL CRUSADE. It’s also a race the Richard Hannon yard have done well in over the years - they run the already mentioned Motakhayyel and Mums Tipple. With Thanks for William Haggas should be better for her return run at Haydock last month, but it’s the horse that won that race - KINROSS - that’s hard to ignore. This Ralph Beckett-trained 4 year-old was a comfortable 1 ¼ length winner that day and despite having to carry a 3lb penalty for already winning a Group Three this season, he might be up to the task. Hollie Doyle has been booked to ride too and with that run also coming off a 3-month break can be expected to have more to come too. Of the rest, it’s interesting jockey James Doyle prefers Glorious Journey over the other Charlie Appleby runner - Royal Crusade. Duke Of Hazzard and the unexposed Tinker Toy are others to consider, but the already mentioned MOTAKHAYYEL (e/w) - is the other one I’ll be playing. From the Hannon yard that have done well in this race and has a good draw in 2. The softer ground went against him last time out at Ascot so had an excuse that day, while he’s also 2-from-2 here at the track with wins on the July course in 2019 and 2020.

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.45 - williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 6f ITV

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 - Aged between 3-6 years-old
4/4 - Had won over 6f before
4/4 - Won between 2-5 times
4/4 - Carried 9-2 or more in weight
3/4 - Returned between 15/2 or shorter
3/4 - Drawn in stalls 10 or higher
3/4 - Placed favourites
3/4 - Rated between 97 and 99 (inc)
3/4 - Unplaced last time out
3/4 - Had run at the track before
2/4 - Came from stalls 10
0/4 - Winning favourites
Staxton won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 10/1

TQ VERDICT: Just the four past runnings of this race, but with three of those four winners coming from stalls 10 or higher, there might be a trend building up here. If so, this is a plus for STREAMLINE, EJTILAAB, STAXTON, JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE and VICTORY HEIGHTS. Of that bunch, the Ian Williams-trained EJTILAAB stands out after a nice win at Epsom last time out. He’s only up 4lbs for that and looked to have a bit more in-hand than the neck winning margin at the line. He likes to come late so the long Newcastle straight should be right up his street too. It could also pay to have the 2019 winner of this race - STAXTON (e/w) - in your corner. He’s in here off a pound lower mark than a few years ago and showed he retains all his ability when winning back in April at Ripon. He’s had a break since his last run at the beginning of May but is a horse that goes well fresh and the experienced Graham Lee, who rides this track well, has been booked to do the steering. Of the rest, the James Tate (25%) and Charles Hills (18%) yards do well with their 4+ year-old at the track, so their VICTORY HEIGHTS and FLEETING PRINCE might be worth having a small saver on.


2.20 – William Hill
Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

18/19 – Had won over 6f before
17/19 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
15/19 – Unplaced last time out
14/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
12/19 – Yet to win a Group race
11/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Had won at least 4 times before
9/19 – Aged 5 or older
8/19 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/19 – Had run at Newcastle before
2/19 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/19 – Won last time out
Judicial (9/1) won the race in 2020
12 of the last 18 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

TQ VERDICT: Another competitive Group Three contest here, but back on the AW, the Roger Varian runner - Khuzaam - is taken to bounce back to form to run better here. This 5 year-old flopped at Sandown back in April behind Palace Pier, but that run was too back to be true and being back on the sand surfaces is a plus. The drop back to 6f here is also interesting, but he’s a horse that shows plenty of pace in his races and it looks an interesting move. His form on the AW tracks is much better too - with 8 runs, 4 wins and 4 seconds, so is clearly developing into a better horse on the all weather tracks. Jim Crowley rides. Of the rest, you feel Crowley would have had the pick to ride the other Shadwell Estate horses - Tabdeed and Khaadem, so the fact he’s sticking with Khuzaam is noted. However, DILIGENT HARRY is a fast-improving sprinter from the Clive Cox yard - he’s won 3 of his 4 starts and I think there is more to come. He gets a handy 7lbs from the older horses being a 3 year-old and has a nice draw in 2 as well. He beat a fair sort in Mighty Gurkha at Lingfield last time and his only defeat has been at the hands of Rohaan (short head), who has since franked the form many times. Good Effort, Ventura Rebel and Chil Chil are others to note, but it’s last season’s runner-up in this race - BRANDO (e/w) - that catches the eye. He was only beaten 1 ½ lengths last season in this contest but despite his advancing years (9) is still the second top-rated in the field here. He burst a blood vessel the last day at York so had an excuse there, but before that had run well at Haydock and Doncaster to show he still retains his ability.

 

2.55 - William Hill Pick Your Places Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation race for the Plate) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV

Five previous runnings
Mondain won the race in 2020
Cosmeli won the race in 2018
5/5 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
5/5 – Ran in the last 2 months
5/5 - Won with between 9-3 and 9-10 in weight
4/5 - Won over at least 1m6f in the past
4/5 - Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Winners came from stalls 11-19 (inc)
3/5 - Won over 2m (flat) in the past
3/5 - Winning favourites
2/5 – Won last time out
2/5 – Had run at Newcastle (flat) before
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 9/1

TQ VERDICT: The Gay Kelleway runner - COSMELI - won this race in 2018, and can’t be ruled out on a 4lb lower mark. He does seem to save his best for this track and the 2m ½ trip won’t be an issue. The Charlie Fellowes yard won this in 2019 and try again with Byron Hill, who won very well at Yarmouth last time. He’s up just 5lbs for that but the niggle would be that he’s 0-from-4 on the AW and seeing out this 2m trip. The interesting runner at the foot of the weights though could be the Venetia Williams-trained BELLATRIXSA (e/w), who is a proven CD winner here too. She’s been running well over hurdles of late - winning two of her last three starts - and her form on the AW here at Newcastle is 2-1. She’s only 5lbs higher than when winning here last October but looks to have improved since with her hurdles showings, while with just 8-11 in weight could be very dangerous. Of the rest, the David Simcock runner Indigo Times has done little wrong in winning four of his last five but is up another 5lbs here. Raymond and Zeeband have consistent profiles and have to be taken seriously too, while with decent strike-rates at the track with their 4+ year-olds, the Haggas yard (38%), who run A Star Above and the Beckett camp (36%), who have Brasca, are noted too.

 

3.30 – William Hill Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV

18/19  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
18/19 – Finished fifth or better last time out
16/19 – Came from stall 14 or lower
16/19 – Aged 6 or younger
15/19 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
15/19 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
11/19 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/19 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
7/19 – Won by a National Hunt yard
5/19 – Won their previous race
5/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 13 winners)
3/19 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/19 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/19 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 6)
1/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 12.5/1
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 15 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Ten winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 4 of the last 9
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

TQ VERDICT: Onto the main race at Newcastle this Saturday and the first thing to note is that horses aged 9 or older don’t have a great record - this is bad news for Nicholas T, Watersmeet and Sir Chauvelin, who are all 9+ year-old. The class act in the race is clearly the Alan King runner - TRUESHAN - who was last seen running the useful Japan to ¾ of a length in the G3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester. He stays this 2m trip well too and despite having a big weight 10-4, connections are helping by booking Rhys Clutterbuck to ride and claim 5lbs. He’s also won before carrying a big weight (9st 12lbs) and is 1-from-1 on the AW having won at Wolverhampton back in 2019. It won’t be easy with having to give the weight away, but I’ll take his class to see him through. The main dangers look to be Dubious Affair, who was very unlucky (2nd) at Ascot last time out over 1m6f, but the 2m trip would be a slight concern for this Charlie Fellowes runner. Reshoun won the Ascot Stakes over 2m4f so staying will be fine, but he’s up 5lbs more here for that success. Australis was runner-up in this 12 months ago and can go well again, but it’s worth pointing out he’s rated 10lbs higher now. Themaxwecan, Watersmeet, Lucky Deal, Hochfeld and Mildenberger represent the Mark Johnston yard that are always respected in races like this and of that bunch their LUCKY DEAL (e/w) could go well at a price. He’s been out of sorts recently, but the return to the AW might spark him back to life. He’s a CD winner here at the track too and his overall AW record is not too shabby with 12 runs, 5 wins, and 8 top three finishes. Andrew Breslin helps by taking off a handy 5lbs too. Grandmaster Flash comes over from the powerful Joseph O’Brien yard and will be interesting in the market, but it’s another Alan King runner - RAINBOW DREAMER (e/w) - that is the final one to have onside. Jim Crowley has been booked to ride and with 6 wins from 11 starts on the AW the return to Newcastle will suit. He was also a fair 5th in the race last season and is only 3lbs higher this time - he was a bit keen that day, so if settling a bit better will have a stronger chance of getting home this time.

 

Curragh Horse Racing Trends (Ire)


3.45 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Colts and Fillies) (3yo) 1m4f

18/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
16/18 – Won by an Irish-based yard
16/18 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
14/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Won a Group race before
14/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/18 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
13/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/18 – Failed to win their last race
12/18 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
12/18 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
11/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won the race 14 times in total)
7/18 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (3 winners, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
4/18 – Previous Group 1 winners
4/18 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 6/1

TQ VERDICT: The Aidan O’Brien yard have won the Irish Derby a staggering 14 times and with five of the 11 runners this year, they’ve a strong hand in making it win number 15. Of course, anything that jockey Ryan Moore picks to ride for O’Brien should be noted - but surprisingly Moore has NEVER ridden the winner of the Irish Derby! Yes, it’s hard to believe with all the O’Brien winners, but he’s taken to break his duck in the race this year with the 115-rated HIGH DEFINITION. This well-bred Galileo colt was doing all his best work at the finish in the Dante Stakes over 1m2f, so this step up to 1m4f should be just the trick. He’s also a proven course winner here at the track when winning here twice last season. Hurricane Lane won the Dante Stakes earlier this season, so beat the selection that day, and has since run well to be third in the Epsom Derby - he’ll be no pushover and it’s worth pointing out he lost both front shoes in the Derby. But I’ll take the O’Brien runner to reverse that Dante form over this longer trip. O’Brien also has Arturo Toscanni, Matchless, Van Gogh and Wordsworth in the race with the last-named looking their next best chance with Seamie Heffernan riding - he’s ridden four Irish Derby winners for O’Brien too. Of the rest, it’s hard to ignore Epsom Derby second Mojo Star too, who comes over from the Richard Hannon yard, while Irish 2000 Guineas winner - Mac Swiney, who was also fourth in the Derby, can’t be ruled out but the trip again here would be the question mark for me.

 

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