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21st October 2021

Sunday Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 26th July 2020

More top-class LIVE ITV Racing this Sunday (26th July 2020) with the cameras heading to York and Ascot.

At York there are three races that include the Sky Bet Dash (2.45) – a race that 14 of the last 16 winners carried 8-12 or more in weight.

Then at Ascot, we’ve four more races that are headlined by the Group Three Princess Margaret Stakes (3.40) – a contest that’s seen 14 of the last 17 winners finish in the top three last time out.

As always, here at TQ, we’ve got all the key trends and stats to help narrow down the winners – use these trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of the races.



York Horse Racing Trends


2:10 - Sky Bet Daily Price Boosts Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-95) 7f ITV4

One previous running
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor trained the 2019 winner
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 22% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 12 from 237 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: A tough contest to start with the LIVE races at York but a chance is taken with the Ralph Beckett runner – DANCING VEGA (e/w). This 4 year-old was a nice winner on debut at Doncaster in 2018 but failed to build on that next time at Newbury when a beaten favourite. She’s clearly a horse that’s had some issues with just two runs to date, but the first-time hood is an interesting move and the yard have a decent 22% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track. If the patience has paid off then there could be more to come from this unexposed runner on handicap debut. Of the rest, CD winners So Beloved, Firmament and Get Knotted have been around the block but are useful on their day and have to enter the mix, while the consistent PRESIDENTAL (e/w) and Alemaratalyoum are others to consider – most notably the former, who was a close third in a similar race off this mark last time at HQ. Any rain would be fine for him and the Roger Fell yard have been doing well since racing returned.

2:45 - Sky Bet Extended Dash Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4

16/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
15/16 – Had won between 2-6 times before
14/16 – Carried 8-12 or more
14/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/16 – Aged 5 or younger
13/16 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
10/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Raced at either Hamilton, York, Newmarket or Ascot last time
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/16 – Had run at York before
6/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/16 – Won last time out
2/16 - Trained by Tim Easterby
9 of the last 14 winners carried 9-0 or more
Dakota Gold (10/1) won the race in 2019
Flying Pursuit won the race in 2017 and 2018

TQ VERDICT: Plenty of old faces here. 13 of the last 16 winners were aged 5 or younger so that’s a negative for the likes of Wentworth Falls, Golden Apollo, Hyperfocus, Teruntum Star, Gunmetal, George Bowen and Muscika. With 13 of the last 16 winners coming from stalls 10 or lower too then of those left – SOLIDIER’S MINUTE, CAMACHO CHIEF, JONAH JONES, SPLIT DOWN SOUTH, DIAMOND DOUGAL and MUSIC SOCIETY get a thumbs-up here. Of that bunch, the Frankie ridden JONAH JONES, who is a proven CD winner here stands out and is sure to be popular after two solid thirds recently. Camacho Chief is the other of interest after a smooth win at Doncaster last time out. He’s up only 4lbs for that run but the only worry would be the step up to 6f – he’s tried this trip 9 times and been beaten on each occasion. So a chance is taken with MUSIC SOCIETY (e/w), who gets in with a low weight of only 8-10 and looks a horse that could be running into some form after two solid recent runs – he’s trained by the Tim Easterby yard, who also run Hyperfocus and Golden Apollo, and have a fair record in this race, winning it in 2017 and 2018.

3:20 - British Stallion Studs EBF Lyric Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2½f ITV4

10/10 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Won between 1-3 times before
9/10 – Placed favourites
8/10 – Drawn in stalls 2, 5 or 7
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
6/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Raced at York before
4/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/10 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/10 – Trained by John Gosden
2/10 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

TQ VERDICT: Some promising sorts on show here, but it’s hard to get away from the Frankie Dettori/John Gosden runner – FRANCONIA. This 3 year-old filly is the clear top-rated in the field off 105 and was very impressive last time out at Newbury. She’s bypassed some of the big 3 year-old fillies races since winning that Listed race in June but looks the sort that could easily progress into Group company after this. Of the rest, Beautiful Illusion, Chamade and Bighearted can go well, while the Sir Michael Stoute camp have a fair record in this race so their Shepherd Market might do best of the others now upped to this 1m2f trip for the first time.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends


1.55 - Play Nifty Fifty Exclusively At Betfred Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

9/10 – Had won over 5f before
8/10 – Aged 5 or younger
8/10 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
8/10 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/10 – Had run at Ascot before
7/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Aged 5 years-old
3/10 – Winners from stall 12
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

TQ VERDICT: With 8 of the last 10 winners aged 5 or younger then this might be seen as a negative for Mubaalegh (6), El Hombre (6), Equitation (6) and Blue De Vega (7). MAGIC J was a nice winner at Sandown last time out – beating another possible runner here Konchek by 2 lengths and despite being upped 8lbs by the handicapper is an in-form sprinter that could have more to offer. He wore the first time cheekpieces that day and they clearly did the trick and remain on here, while Oisin Murphy gets on well with the horse and is so-far yet to finish out of the first two riding him (4 runs). Of the others, Ryan Moore is an eye-catching booking for the CD winner Mountain Peak, while the unbeaten Bomb Proof is another to note from the James Fanshawe yard. Aplomb has the form to go well too, but the other pick is the already mentioned KONCHECK, who rarely runs a bad race. Yes, he’s got a bit to find with Magic J, but should not be far back on better terms this time.

2:30 - Betfred 'Fred's Pushes' Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

4 previous winners
3/4 – Aged 4 years-old
3/4 – Carried 9-3 or more
3/4 – Won over 1m4f before
3/4 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
3/4 – Had run at the track before
3/4 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
3/4 – Rated between 88 and 90
2/4 – Drawn in stall 7
1/4 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 7/1

TQ VERDICT: Only 4 past runnings to go on, but with 3 of the last 4 winners aged 4 years-old, running first or second last time out and carrying 9-3 or more in weight then these three trends suggest COUNTRY is the one to be on – he’s the only one that ticks all three of these stats. This William Haggas runner was a good winner at Newmarket last time out and a 4lb rise for that looks very fair. He’s won 4 of his 8 starts to date and looks the sort to have more to come over this 1m4f trip that he’s only tried twice. The horse from stall 7 has won 2 of the last 4, so Jeremiah will be looking to add to this stat, while Ryan Moore is a good booking to ride the Simcock runner – Almania. CD winners Dash Of Spice and Koeman have good form at the track, but the other Haggas runner – DAL HORRISGLE – ticks a lot of the key trends too and is worth some support too. A recent fourth at HQ would have brought him on but is also dropped 4lbs for that effort. Oisin Murphy rides.

3:05 – Betfred British EBF Valiant Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV4

10/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/10 – Won over at least 7f before
10/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/10 – Won between 1-3 times before
10/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/10 – Drawn in stalls 5-10
6/10 – Drawn in stalls 7-9
6/10 – Irish bred
6/10 – Won last time out
6/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
3/10 – Drawn in stall 7
2/10 – Trained by William Haggas
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: The unbeaten Miss O Connor is sure to have it’s supporters after winning her fourth race last time out in France. That came in a Group Three contest, but the key to her chance might be the ground – all her wins/runs have been with some degree of ‘soft’ in the description. She returns from a 274-day break but has gone well fresh in the past and if the rains come would have a big chance. The ratings suggest Agincourt, Stylistique, Look Around and Iconic Choice are others that can throw their hat into the ring, but the clear top-rated is the former 1,000 Guineas winner – BILLESDON BROOK. She ran a blinder to be a neck second in the G1 Falmouth Stakes at HQ last time out and on that form and now dropped into a G3 would make her hard to beat. Sean Levey rides for the Richard Hannon yard.

3:40 - Princess Margaret Betfred Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV4

14/17 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Had won just once before
14/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
12/17 – Won over 6f before
11/17 – Foaled in either Feb or March
9/17 – Winning favourite
7/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Won by the Hannon yard
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
8 of the last 14 winners were Irish bred
9 of the last 14 horses from stall 1 were placed
4 of the last 8 winners came from stall 1
Under The Stars (25/1) won the race in 2019

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newbury

TQ VERDICT: The David Loughnane yard look to hold a strong hand here with recent Windsor winner – Caroline Dale and their Newmarket third – Santosha, who took the bronze medal behind the useful Dandalla in the G2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes. That is solid form and of his pair I think she’s got the better chance. However, we’ve an interesting Aidan O’Brien runner in the race in MORE BEAUTIFUL that could spoil the Loughnane party. She was a poor favourite in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot last time but the step up to 6f looks a good move as looked a bit out-paced that day. She’s clearly thought to be better than that last run and with Ryan Moore, who has a decent record in the race, riding that’s a further plus. Of the rest, the unbeaten Isabella Giles and Hala Hala Hala could improve further and play a hand.

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