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7th July 2020

Sunday LIVE Racing – Free Tips and Trends: 28th June 2020

This Sunday (28th June 2020) there is more LIVE ITV horse racing to enjoy with seven races spread across both Windsor and Newmarket.

We’ve got the key trends and stats for each race, plus our FREE TIPS. Use these key trends to whittle down the runners and find the best past winning profiles.

Windsor Horse Racing Trends (Sky/ITV4)

2:25 - Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 6f ITV4

14/15 – Had between 1-3 previous wins
13/15 – Had won over 6f before
12/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
10/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
10/15 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
5/15 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Drawn in stall 3
3/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

Note: This race is normally staged at Newbury

TQ VERDICT: A race the Richard Hannon yard have a good recent record in this race, so their DARK LADY is the call here. This 3 year-olds is the top-rated in the field (106) so sets the standard anyway and could have more to give after a wind op over the winter. Had been running in better races than this too, so the drop to Listed level should see her have a big chance. Of the rest, the Kevin Ryan yard are going well so their Repartee can’t be ruled out, while CD winner Fleeting Prince and the Richard Fahey runner – Istanbul are others that would have a squeak.

 

3:00 - Midsummer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV4

 10/10 – Returned 8/1 or less in the betting
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Ran at Newmarket (3), Ascot (4) or York (2) last time out
9/10 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
9/10 – Aged 5 or younger
8/10 – Rated between 102 and 110
8/10 – Favourites placed in the top three
7/10 – Drawn 4 or lower
7/10 – Won over at least 1m before
7/10 – Drawn in stalls 4 or lower
3/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Had run at the course before
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

 TQ VERDICT: Accidental Agent is back into calmer waters here after last running in the Group One Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. Was only beaten 4 ½ lengths that day but into Listed grade here will give him a big chance. Davydenko is the only CD winner in the field so commands respect for the Stoute yard that have a 30% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track. In contrast, the Balding yard are just 1 from 35 (3%) with this age group at Windsor so their Foxtrot Lady has this to overcome. Urban Icon is a course winner too for the Hannon yard, but is yet to win over this 1m trip and that would be a concern. But a chance is taken on the Mark Johnston runner CARDSHARP (e/w) here. The yard boasts a 33% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track and I feel he’s better than recent runs suggest. Down the field at Ascot last time in the Hunt Cup, but is well-drawn here in 1 and should be happier on the quicker ground. STORMY ATLANTIC is the top-rated in the field (114) and is another that is sure to be popular, and should be a lot fitter for a recent fourth at Newbury in a Group Three. A nice draw in 2 and the up-and-coming Tom Marquand is a further plus in the saddle.

 

3:35 - attheraces.com Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 1m ITV4

 No previous runnings
Trainer Roger Varian has a 27% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer William Haggas has a 36% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston is only 2 from 27 (7%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Silvestre De Sousa has a 29% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Luke Morris has only a 4% record riding 3 year—olds a the track

TQ VERDICT: Another nice race and a lot of focus will be in the unbeaten Dance Fever, from the Clive Cox yard. This course winner is stepping up in trip but has been winning in the manner to suggest it will suit. Certainly one for the shortlist. Tell Me All and Sword Beach are the two only distance winners in the field, while the Sir Michael Stoute team are always respected in races like this – they run Jean Baptiste. Trainer Richard Hannon has Sun Power and Oh Purple Reign in the race, but the call here is to side with the William Haggas entry – SURF DANCER. Another ridden by Tom Marquand, this 3 year-old returned from a break to run a fair fourth at Sandown a few weeks a go and will be a lot sharper as a result. The Haggas yard also boast a cracking 36% record with their 3 year-olds at the track to add further confidence.

 

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

 

2:45 - Betway Empress Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV4

18/18 – Never raced at the track before
16/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
13/18 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
10/18 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
10/18 – Didn’t win their previous race
9/18 – Came from stall 5 or lower
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/18 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

TQ VERDICT: Having had a run at Royal Ascot last time has been a fair guide to this race in recent years – so, with that in mind, the Roger Varian runner – UNDERTAKE – who was fourth in the Albany Stakes last week, is the only qualifier. She was beaten just over 7 lengths into fourth that day, but this represents a slight drop in grade and can also be expected to have learnt a lot from that experience. She should also like the quicker ground and after losing two places close home the run was actually even better than it looked. Recent winners Concessions, Kadupul and Live Streamare others to consider, but the main threat might come from Time Scale, who dotted-up at Chepstow last time out (6 lengths) and looks to be useful prospect for the Beckett team.

 

3:20 - Betway Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 6f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Roger Varian has a 16% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Tom Dascombe is only 1 from 21 (5%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Richard Kingscote is just 1 from 33 (3%) riding 3 year-olds a the track

TQ VERDICT: Only four runners here. The top-rated in the field is Monoski for the Mark Johnston yard, but as a result has to give a bit of weight to the others. The Roger Varian yard have a fair 16% record with their 3 year-olds here – the best on show from the stables running in the race – so their Ascension will have it’s supporters based on this. Buhturi ran well to be second on it’s return run at Haydock and should go well, but in a race that all four look to have a say, the safest option might be to side with the only CD winner in the field – LEXINGTON DASH. This 3 year-old won easily last time out at HQ (3 ½ lengths) and with that being it’s first run back from a wind op, the horse has clearly improved for it. Thore Hammer Hansen is the added plus riding as he can claim 5lbs too.

 

3:55 - Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a 26% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David O’Meara is only 2 from 53 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey David Egan is only 1 from 35 (3%) riding 4+ year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: Another small but select field here. Elwazir is the top-rated but has to give a bit of weight away as aa result. Ryan Moore catches the eye booked to ride the Hannon runner – Kuwait Currency, but the Haggas yard have two of the five runners – Dal Horrigle and DESERT ICON. The former has Cieren Fallon on and he can claim 3lbs. Returns from a break, but the horse has won well off a break in the past and if fully wound-up has a big chance. But with James Doyle riding their other entry – Desert Icon – this one just edges it. Will be fitter for it’s last run at HQ (4th of 8) as that was it’s first run after being gelded too. The cheekpieces are also on today as fluffed the start a bit last time too – these will hopefully calm him down a bit.

 

4:30 - Betway Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV4

18/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
15/18 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
15/18 – Had between 0 and 2 previous runs that season
14/18 – Didn’t win their previous race
14/18 – Placed favourites
13/18 – Had won over 1m4f (or further) before
11/18 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
11/18 – Aged 4 years-old
11/18 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
9/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Won by the Kremlin House stable (Roger Varian)
8 of the last 10 winners drawn 5 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute team up here with ALIGNAK, who was a nice winner at Newcastle earlier this month. This is a step up in grade though, but the yard has a good record in this race and could have more to come. Universal Order has the form to go well too but with the Simcock yard 0-from-21 with their 3 year-olds at the track this would be a worry. Pablo Escobar has to enter calculations too as the joint top-rated in the field, but the John Gosden yard look to have a string hand with El Misk and FIRST IN LINE. The former has top form on the AW – winning 3 of his 4 races, but on the turf is currently 0-from-3 so has a bit to prove. Plus, with Frankie picking to ride First In Line this is a strong indication this is their better hope. This 3 year-old ran a close third in a Listed race here last time out and should be better for that as it came off a 218 day break. Trip and ground are fine and with Gosden (23%) and Dettori (24%) with their 3 year-olds at the track this is another plus on our side.

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