- NEWBURY: Lockinge Day at the Berkshire Track……..
- NEWMARKET: Three LIVE Races From HQ……….
- Trainers Quotes: Fellowes Flying From New Yard…..
Several nice returns last weekend, so fingers crossed for more today.
It’s flat all the way this Saturday, as after the busy York Dante Meeting in midweek the ITV cameras are off to NEWBURY and NEWMARKET to take in seven more LIVE races.
The Group One Lockinge Stakes is the main event at Newbury – with just shy of £200k up for grabs for the winner it’s no surprise to see most of the big yards on show. The Hannon yard will be trying to land the race for a fifth time since 2010, while 12 months ago the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard took home the prize for only the second time.
Did you know – ALL of the last 16 Lockinge Stakes winners had won over a mile before, while 12 of the last 16 were aged 4 years-old?
Then at Newmarket we’ve three more LIVE races that include a competitive 6f handicap, plus two Listed contests.
As always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you and as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!
Have a Great Weekend
This Week At Trainers-Quotes………Fellowes Hits Ground Running From New Yard!
With the flat turf action in full swing now that also means we’ve summer jumping for the National Hunt fans and as you can see from the array of winners below there are plenty of successes over both codes.
We had another nice TQ View winner last Sunday as the in-form Gary Moore team – that we flagged up last weekend – fired in Zamperini – while the TQ View cheer continued into midweek with Tim Vaughan’s ALLTIMEGOLD winning easily at Ffos Las on Tuesday.
However, it was the Charlie Fellowes yard that stole the show on Thursday with an across-the-card double at York and Newmarket – two winners inside 10 mins…….wow!!
CARNWEENAN (1st 7/1) and I AM MAGICAL (1st 6/1) were the two horses in question, but what made the wins even better were that these were the first runners that came out of Charlie’s new yard – the Bedford House Stables – that Luca Cumani trained out of for 40 years!
Oh, and Carnweenan was also the TQ View – the day’s best bet!
Here’s just a sample of some top quotes recently……………….
“I Am Magical – Is a nice filly and ran great on her stable debut 3 weeks ago. I think she found the heavy ground too tough so hopefully the better ground today should suit. She is better than her mark. Hayley Turner rides.”
1st 6/1 Charlie Fellowes
“Carnwennan – Did everything but win at Donny on his seasonal debut (2nd ) and that run should have brought him on plenty. He will love the trip and track and should go well.”
1st 7/1 Charlie Fellowes
“Chitra – Seasonal reappearance after a productive two year campaign.”
1st 5/1 Daniel Kubler
"Majestic Moon – Has been very consistent throughout the winter but in the process has been steadily dropping in the handicap. He had no luck last run at Southwell but remains in good form at home. He certainly has the ability back on turf at these weights and should have an each-way chance again. “
3rd 9/1 Julia Feilden
“Monkey Puzzle – showed lots of promise in his first outing for us at Doncaster in December 2016, unfortunately he’s had a troubled time since then – hence the long lay-off. Monkey pulled up suddenly at Ludlow when last seen on a racecourse, he was hopping lame for a couple of strides and was then fine post race, we could find nothing wrong with him. He came back into training the following autumn before picking up a slight tendon injury, he then had a year off. Monkey has had a few further issues which have kept him off track, fortunately he has patient owners that have given him the time to recover fully. We are delighted to get him going again – Monkey is a half brother to Presenting Percy, he has potential we just need a bit of luck now – feel we’ve got a chance here, but goes without saying just be delighted with a positive run and great to see him on the track. Sudden Destination and One More Fleurie look the main dangers.”
1st 11/4 Oliver Sherwood
“Alltimegold – Running well at the moment despite not winning – been placed the last twice and only a pound higher here. Conditions are fine and Alan is back in the saddle riding – he knows the horse well. Weak-looking race helps too so no reason why he can’t go well here and should be going close to winning and probably my best chance on the day.”
1st 5/2 Tim Vaughan (TQ VIEW)
“Between The Waters – Was very consistent last summer. Back from a break here and in the right class of race – is well at home and he should be there or thereabouts once more here.”
1st 4/1 Jamie Snowden
“Zephyrina – Makes her debut against more experienced rivals – will come forward for the run but is ready for her first day at school.”
2nd 33/1 Daniel Kubler
“Argyle – A trappy enough race. Been freshened up with a few months off and the horses seem to be going well at the moment overall. Hopefully the step up in distance – first run over this sort of a trip and we think it will suit – will see him improve and give him good e/w chances.”
1st 7/1 Gary Moore
“ZAMPERINI has been running on the all weather with some decent efforts in defeat. Ran a decent race back in February at Wincanton in a maiden hurdle. This race is certainly not beyond him and I hope to see ZAMPERINI run well today.”
1st 5/2 Gary Moore
“Thebannerkingrebel – Was a very useful bumper horse and was an excellent second in the Grade 2 Aintree bumper. He jumps well and should have a favourites chance here on hurdling debut.”
1st 8/15 Jamie Snowden
“Pearl Noir – We actually won this race last year. A pound lower this time and wheras we were drawn 12 last year we are not far off that in 14 this time. Fit and well from the AW, plus ran well at Nottingham (3rd) last time – Andrew’s 5lb claim a help too so all-in-all feel we’ve got another great chance of going close again. Each-way price. 2 1/2 stars”
2nd 12/1 Scott Dixon
“Break The Silence – Had a few months off after another busy AW spell. Back on the turf here and with 8 top three finishes from 17 runs on the grass then consistent form. Has run well at the track before and the softer ground is fine too. Apprentice race so probably not one to get too involved in but at least our jockey takes off a massive 10lbs! He should give her a good run. Each-way.”
3rd 7/1 Scott Dixon
“Treasure Me – Has a lot to find on the ratings – however, she will lover the soft ground and definitely has the speed for 6f. Could run well at a price. “
2nd 16/1 Charlie Fellowes
“Shantewe – Won well on her racecourse debut and was then placed in a Listed race and 5th in the Grade 2 Aintree bumper. She looks to have a favourites chance here back down in class with a penalty, which we’ve slightly negated with Page taking off 3lbs.”
1st 11/10 Jamie Snowden
“Evas Oskar – Been running okay the last twice but dropped in grade here should help – conditions are fine and only 6 runs to date so still learning and will have a lot more to come. Probably Tara West to beat, but should not be far away.”
1st 5/2 Tim Vaughan
“Neff – Only second run for us after coming over from France. Fair debut effort here on the AW but we think he can build on that here. David Probert rides and has handled the softer ground before. Of my four in the race looks one of by better chances. Each-way.”
1st 7/1 Gary Moore
You can see the best of our recent quotes here
Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 7 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!
Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!
Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!
YOUR direct line through to the UK’s TOP Trainers – EVERY time they have a horse running…
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You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..
NEWBURY: Lockinge Day at the Berkshire Track……..
Newbury Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1.50 - Shalaa Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f8y ITV
13/14 – Had between 1-3 previous wins
12/14 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
12/14 – Had won over 6f before
12/14 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
10/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
10/14 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/14 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
5/14 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Drawn in stall 3
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
TQ VERDICT: A good race for the Hannon yard over the years so their MOYASSAR looks interesting here. This 3 year-old colt wo well at HQ last time out in a handicap to suggest this leap into Listed company is worth a crack. He’s the top-rated in the field too and will have the services of Jim Crowley riding. Draw 10 is the only niggle as 12 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 5 or lower – Red Impression, Sunsprite, Space Traveller, Oxted and Kurious are the five key draw horses to note then. Of that bunch, Ryan Moore is an eye-catching jockey booking for the Richard Hughes-trained Sunsprite, while the Henry Candy runner – KURIOUS – could have more to come. This filly gets a handy 5lbs from most of the others and should be a lot fitter for a recent second at Sandown. She ran on well over that 5f to indicate the step up to 6f will be right up her street. Space Traveller, Khaadem and Konchek are others that can make their presence felt.
2.25 - Al Rayyan Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV
15/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/16 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
12/16 – Drawn 4 or lower
11/16 – Had run at Newbury before
11/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
10/16 – Irish bred
10/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
8/16 – Had won between 1-3 times before
8/16 – Aged 4 years-old
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Won last time out
3 of the last 11 winners were Godolphin-owned
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1
Crystal Ocean (2/5 fav) won the race last year
TQ VERDICT: This should be a straight forward task for the for last year’s winner – CRYSTAL OCEAN. This Stoute-trained 5 year-old returned to the track last month with an easy win at Sandown in the Gordon Richards Stakes and being rated 13lbs higher than his nearest rival then looks to have too much in-hand. He seems just as good over 1m2f and 1m4f so the step up in trip is fine and Ryan Moore is a further plus in the plate. Raymond Tusk, Red Verdon and Laraaib look the most likely trip to chase him home.
3.00 - Al Zubarah London Gold Cup (Open Handicap) Cl2 1m2f6y ITV
15/16 – Had won between 1-2 times before
14/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Rated 90 or lower
13/16 – Carried 8-10 or more
13/16 – Winners from stall 8 or lower
12/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
8/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Had won over 1m2f before
8/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Raced at Newbury before (2 won here)
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2
TQ VERDICT: With 13 of the last 16 winners drawn in stalls 8 or lower, then you could do worse than picking one of the following - War Tiger, Target Zone, Forest Of Dean, Htilominlo, Solid Stone, Sinjaari, Korcho or Riviera Nights. Jockey Ryan Moore has a fair record in the race and rides Solid Stone, while the Mark Johnston and Roger Charlton yards have also targeted this prize in recent years with success – Johnston has Sky Defender and The Trader, while Charlton has Headman. However, of those 8 drawn low, I like the look of the William Haggas runner SINJAARI (e/w). This 3 year-old was really impressive at Windsor over this trip last time out and despite that only being a maiden gets into his first handicap on what looks a fair mark. Oisin Murphy has been booked to ride too and, as pointed out – he gets a handy draw in 6. With the good record of the Charlton yard in the race too I’ll also be playing HEADMAN (e/w) – who should be a lot better than his recent sixth at Newbury on ground that was probably way too soft for him.
3.40 - Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV
16/16 – Won over a mile before
14/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/16 – Had won a Group One race before
13/16 – Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
13/16 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Aged 4 years-old
11/16 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/16 – Winning favourites
10/16 – Having their first run of the season
10/16 – Unplaced last time out
4/16 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard (Has won the race 5 times in all)
4/16 – Won by a mare
3/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/16 – Won by a Cheveley Park stud-owned horse (won it 5 times in all)
2/16 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (has won the race 7 times in all)
1/16 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 3/1
TQ VERDICT: The Hannon camp will be looking for their fifth Lockinge success since 2010 – they will be pinning their hopes on last year’s 1,000 Guineas winner – Billesdon Brook – but this 4 year-old hasn’t won a race since and looks to have a bit to answer. Without Parole is another that’s form tailed off after looking promising last season but the first-time blinkers and Frankie riding then he can’t be totally ruled out. Beat The Bank is back up in grade after winning well last time out – but, for me, he’s a horse that just seems to fall short at the top level. O’Brien and Ryan Moore will be looking to add to last year’s success in the race – this time with Le Brivido – who looks a big player. He’s lightly-raced but would have a bit to prove over this 1m trip – however, was staying on well over 7f to suggest it will suit and should be in the mix – O’Brien also has I Can Fly but with Moore picking Le Brivido then he looks their second string. The Stoute yard also have a good record in the race (7 wins in total) so their MUSTASHRY (e/w) can go well too. This 6 year-old was a fair third last time out the Earl Of Sefton Stakes but looked like he needed that run and the drop back to a mile will be better. 4 year-olds also have a good record in the race so of this age group Laurens, who gets a handy 3lbs from the boys, will be popular but I was taken by the way MYTHICAL MAGIC (e/w) won in Dubai last time so he’s the other call. This Godolphin runner has only finished out of the top three once from 9 starts and seems a better horse since being gelded last summer. He’ll be fitter than most and the boys in blue have won this race three times in the last four years.
NEWMARKET: Three LIVE Races From HQ……….
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)
2.05 – Betway Fairway Stakes (Listed) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV
12/12 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Had won between 1-2 times before
11/12 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
10/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/12 – Favourites placed in the top three
10/12 – Had won over 1m or further before
9/12 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Draw 1,2 or 3
8/12 – Had raced at Newmarket before (Rowley)
6/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/12 – US-bred winners
3/12 – Trained John Gosden
3/12 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/12 – Godolphin-owned winners
2/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/12 – Ridden by William Buick
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
TQ VERDICT: The Queen’s Eightsome Reel, plus Al Hilalee and Khuzaam can go well but the Andrew Balding runner – RAISE YOU – was impressive last time out at Newbury, winning by 6 lengths, and I think he can follow-up. Yes, that was just a maiden and this is a big leap up into Listed company but he couldn’t have done it any easier and with the Balding team having plenty of yardsticks to compare him too, must feel he’s up to the rise in class. With the yard having a good record in the race (2 wins in last 5), the Appleby runner – Al Hilalee – can chase him home.
2.40 –Betway King Charles II Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV
15/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
13/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Won only once before
12/16 – Winners from stall 4 or lower
12/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/16 – Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
9/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by the Hills stable
2/16 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 5 winners)
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1
TQ VERDICT: This looks a bit of a shootout between the Simon Crisford runner – Jash – and FAR ABOVE, who represents the William Haggas yard. The former has won two on his three starts and was an excellent second in the Group one Middle Park Stakes – beaten just ½ a length behind Ten Sovereigns. That is solid form and makes him the one to beat. However, all his runs to date have been over 6f so the step up to 7f is an unknown. That’s not the case for Far Above though as this 3 year-old won over this course and distance here last month. He won with a bit more in-hand than the official margin but with some fancy Group One entries the Haggas yard clearly hold him in high-regard. His proven course form and having won over this trip just edge it for me. Azano, Watan and Glorious Lover make up the five runners.
3.15 - Betway Handicap Cl2 6f ITV
16/16 – Had won between 1-3 times before
13/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won over 6f before
13/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
10/16 – Carried 8-12 or more
10/16 – Favourites placed in the top 4
9/16 – Rated between 91-96
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
6/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won by a mare/filly
3/16 – Won by the Kremlin House (Varian) stable
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 1-8
8 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 3-7
TQ VERDICT: The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1 With 9 of the last 11 winners coming from stall 1-8 this bunch of runners look to have a decent advantage – Tinto, Moraawed, Top Breeze, James Watt, Don Amado, Luxor, Dazzling Dan and He’Zanarab are the ones in question. A top three finish last time out is another plus, while stalls 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 seem to have the better record of the low 8. Having said that, this is a race the Varian yard have targeted in recent years, so their MORAAWED, who is still drawn well in 2, is the call. He beat another of the runners entered here – Dazzling Dan – by a head at Doncaster last time but feel he can confirm that form. He looked to have a bit more up his sleeve. Luxor is another that looks to have a decent chance for William Haggas – he ticks most of the main stats and has been gelded since his last run at Newbury. Fitness might have to be taken on trust but the yard often get them ready to rumble off a break.
THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!
Have a GREAT Weekend