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26th May 2020

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 19th Oct 2019

 

  • ASCOT: It’s British Champions Day!............
  • TRAINERS-QUOTES: Snowden 27 Up For The Season……….

Hi,

Well, firstly the great news this week is that Enable will stay in training next season.

Yes, after the heartbreak of coming second in the Arc earlier this month, her owner – Khalid Abdullah – has agreed to keep her in training with John Gosden as a 6 year-old – with her sole aim trying to become the first horse ever to win the Arc three times. Yipppeeee!

This is a great shot in the arm for racing and will also give her popular jockey - Frankie Dettori - a massive lift and plenty to look forward to next term as draw to an end of the 2019 flat turf season.

Right – moving on. This weekend we’ve one of the highlights of the flat season as it’s British Champions Day at Ascot and with four Group Ones from the six races, there is plenty to get excited about.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all the key trends for the LIVE ITV races.

Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend

 

Snowdon Delighted at Win Number 27…………….There really does look to be some exciting times ahead this season for the Jamie Snowden yard . They fired in win number 27 on Thursday with their promising LEGENDS RYDE winning easily up at Carlisle. This 4 year-old looks a decent sort in the making and is sure to be seen over hurdles in the coming months. With the season just about to get going then having 27 wins on the board already, then they should be in with a great shout of making this their best-ever season. We’ll be following them closely with our full support.  

TQ Horse To Note………………………………..We’ve another Gary Moore runner to look out for this week – MICKEY BUCKMAN. This 6 year-old ran at Huntingdon on Tuesday and was a fast-finishing 100/1 second. Gary told us that he thought the horse could turn out to be a fair sort and even though he clearly ran better than they expected, but did elude to him being a horse to note. He went down by just 1 ¾ lengths at the line but the way he was finishing, he could easily have won in another half a furlong or so. He had a fair sort in Get Back Get Back behind in third and the Moore team should have some decent times ahead with this novice hurdler.

 

USE THE TQ INFO TO BACK OR LAY - Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

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Just a sample of some recent winning quotes……………

 

“Legends Ryde – Showed some very promising bumper form last season. She’s strengthened over the summer and is a big, strong, staying type of mare for the future. She’s done plenty of work and can go close today. Obviously, we don’t know the quality of the others in the race but some of the previous Point winners look the main dangers.”

1ST 9/4 (from 3/1) JAMIE SNOWDEN

“Samovar – Bounced back to winning form here last week – beating Mininggold by a neck. We are up 5lbs for that and in a higher grade here so probably needs another step forward in what looks a very open race. On a plus, the horse is well and has come out of that race in good order. Lighter weight in this better grade too helps so must have an each-way chance.”

2ND 12/1 SCOTT DIXON

“Lawmaking – Consistent sort on the AW and loves the track here at Kempton – past CD winner. 5th of 8 here last time out in a similar race so off the same mark does have a bit to prove.  Slight worry that there might not be much pace in the race but he’s an honest sort that is never far away in his races, while this is only his third run back after wind surgery so hoping he can eke out a bit more. Varian horse might be hard to beat as looks unexposed, but we’ve place claims in an open race.”

2ND 8/1 MICHAEL SCUDAMORE

“Ebitba – We were lucky enough to win this race in 2016 so hopefully it will be kind to us again this year. Ebitda has’t run that well the last twice, but the last of those came on the AW and he’s better on the turf – all 6 career wins have been on the grass. Certainly weighted to go well, with last win coming off an 8lb higher mark. Fresh and well after a small break too and has won at the track before too. Won on soft ground so conditions should be fine too. Small place claims.”

3RD 14/1 SCOTT DIXO

“Takeonefortheteam’s sole win came at Kempton and he is running off 1lb lower today. He has been knocking on the door most of the year but just needs a bit of luck in-running with his run style. If he gets this from draw 8 tonight then he should be hitting the post again hopefully.”

1ST 5/1 MARK LOUGHNANE

“Pontresina has had a year off after picking up a minor tendon injury on his last outing at Wincanton when finishing second. Pontresina is a consistent horse, a very good jumper and as honest as the day is long. He’s as fit as I can get him but he is bound to sharpen up for the run here on handicap debut. Pontresina has physically developed since he last ran, he’s not over tall (16.1) but he’s a strong bodied horse now who has already won a point-to-point so he’s big enough to go on a make a chaser. Fit and well, but after a long time off will obviously come on for the run and we’ll learn more about his mark here. If all 8 run then a small e/w chance.“

2ND 9/1 OLIVER SHERWOOD

“Circle Of Stars- – Ran well over course and distance a few weeks ago and this race looks weaker. We have to turn the form around with the second that day – Forbidden Dance – but we have a better draw (5) and based on that we feel we can go close here today. Solid e/w. “

3RD 7/1 CIRCLE OF STARS

“Ragstone Cowboy – Didn’t seem happy on the AWT last time. Hopefully he will be more at home back on the grass and if he copes with the heavy ground, should see him back to running a good race again. Looks a nice each-way price. “

2ND 8/1 GARY MOORE

“Robero – Took a bit of a hold last time at Newcastle so can ignore that run. Well-drawn in stall 2 here today and the return to Wolverhampton is a positive. Running off the same mark as when a close second here at the end of August so a repeat of that run would see him have a solid e/w chance. Toby rides and gets on well with the horse – he takes off a handy 5lbs too. “

2ND 5/1 GAY KELLEWAY

“Some Day Soon – Has won his last 4 novice hurdles thought the summer. He won well last time out at Startford, where he gave Ruthless Article weight and a beating so he deserves to take his place in this Grade 2. The step up in trip can only bring about more improvement but the question mark is the softer ground. However, he is fit and well and I look forward to seeing him run. Each-way.”

3RD 8/1 JAMIE SNOWDEN

“Samovar – Struggled a bit in last three runs – two of them here on the fibresand. Has dropped to a mark of 70 though and last win here was only a few pounds lower. The drop back into a Class 5 will also help as been running in better races than this – his last three runs at this level resulted in 1-3-2 finishes so that gives us hope. Place claims.”

1ST 14/1 SCOTT DIXON

“Cap St Vincent – Did well for us last season – winning twice over fences and ended with a fair third in a nice race at Sandown. Has got stronger over the summer and looking forward to getting going with him again. Seems to prefer the better ground that he should get here and the slightly longer trip should be within range too. No matter what will improve for the run as it’s been 300ish days since his last, but is fit and well, so looks to have an each-way chance.”

1ST 6/1 TIM VAUGHAN

 

You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

 

 

SATURDAY LIVE ITV RACING FREE TIPS AND TRENDS

ASCOT: Four Group Ones Headline A Stellar Champions Day Card….

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV)


1.35 - Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

16/17 – Won over 6f previously
16/17 – Won at least 3 times previously
15/17 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
15/17 –  Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Raced at least 4 times that season
14/17 – Won at Listed or better class previously
13/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/17 – Raced at Ascot previously (3 won)
12/17 – Finished in the top 4 in their latest race
12/17 – Won a Group race previously
10/17 – Favourites placed
11/17 – Raced at Haydock (6), Goodwood (2) or Newbury (3) last time out
4/17 – Won their latest race
4/17 – Favourites that won
2/17 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan (2 of the last 4)
Sands Of Mali (28/1) won the race in 2018
Librisa Breeze (10/1) won the race in 2017
The Tin Man (13/2) won the race in 2016
Since 2011: 4 of the last 8 winners have come from stalls 12 (2) or 14 (2)
Since 2011: 5 of the last 8 winners came from double-figure stalls
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 12 placed 5 of the last 8 runnings
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 14 placed 4 of the last 8 runnings

The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

TQ VERDICT: The Richard Fahey-trained Sands Of Mali popped up at 28/1 to take this race last season so can’t be ruled out. He’ll love the soft/heavy ground and hasn’t had a hard season so will come here fresher than most. We’ve another past winner too as The Tin Man lines-up as well. This 7 year-old took the pot in 2016 but was only 7th in the race twelve months ago and has only won one of his last 8 races now. We’ve a few others that ran well in the race last year too – Donjuan Triumphant (3rd) and Brando (4th) so if reproducing those runs would have a say too. CAPE BYRON (e/w) bounced back to form last time out here in the G3 Bengough Stakes and even though this is a step up in grade he loves the track and the softer ground are big plusses. His form here at Ascot this season reads 1-1-1! Dream Of Dreams seems to have lost his way after running a close second in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes here in June so needs to bounce back, while So Perfect, Aidan O’Brien yard, Mabs Cross and One Master are others that can’t be discounted. However, HELLO YOUMZAIN looks a fast-improving sprinter too after winning the G1 Sprint Cup last month and will love the soft ground – he’s 2-from-2 when running on soft ground and looks a horse with more to come. Finally, the consistent Advertise is another that is sure to go well with Frankie riding. He’s only finished out of the top two once from his 9 runs and won the G1 Commonwealth Cup here back in June. He’s handled good-to-soft in the past, but my only niggle is that he’s yet to race on ground this deep.

2.10 - Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) Cl1 2m ITV

14/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Won at Listed or better class previously
14/17 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 lengths or less
12/17 – Aged 5 or older
12/17 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
12/17 – Favourites placed
12/17 – Won over at least 2 miles on the flat previously
12/17 – Won at least 5 times previously
11/17 – Raced at least 5 times that season
8/17 – Raced at Longchamp (3), Ascot (2) or Doncaster (3) last time out
8/17 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
8/17 – Won their latest race
5/17 – Irish-trained winners
3/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of the last 4)
2/17 – Trained by Dermot Weld
2/17 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 4)
Stradivarius (Evs fav) won the race in 2018
Since 2011: 5 of the last 8 winners came from stalls 2-4 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 7 have been placed in 4 of the last 7
The average winning odds in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

TQ VERDICT: Quite simply, this race revolves around one horse – STRADIVARIUS – and it will be a brave punter that takes him on. He landed this race last year and continued his dominance in this sphere by winning all the big cup races and the £1million pound bonus for a second season. He’s now won 10 on the bounce and at the age of just 5 years-old might not have finished improving yet. If you are looking for something to cling to if wanting to take him on, then the heavy ground might be it. He’s yet to race on heavy ground, but has won on soft conditions and does stay further than this 2m trip – so there are signs the heavy conditions will be fine. The Frankie factor will make him popular in the betting regardless and with bundles in-hand on the official ratings, it would be a shock if he’s not making it win number 15 and victory number 11 on the spin. Of the rest, Kew Gardens is the next highest in the ratings and looks most likely to fill second. He was a decent second in the Irish St Leger last time out and looks worth a crack at this longer trip for the first time. Royal Line, Withhold, Capri and Bin Battuta are others that will be fighting it out for the places.

 

2.45 - Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f ITV

11/11 – Raced 3 or more times that season
10/11 – Won at Listed or better class previously
9/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
9/11 – Won at least 3 times previously
9/11 – Raced within the last 9 weeks
8/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
8/11 – Won over 1m4f previously
8/11 – Returned between 4/1 and 6/1
8/11 – Rated 110 or higher
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Aged 3 years-old
5/11 – Won their last race
4/11 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/11 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/11 – Favourites that won
2/11 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (last 2 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1
Magical (5/1) won the race 12 months ago
3 of the last 10 winners came from stall 2

Note: The 2009 & 2010 renewals were run at Newmarket

TQ VERDICT: The Aidan O’Brien yard have won the last two runnings of this race and are mob-handed again this year with four runners – South Sea Pearl, Pink Dogwood, Fleeting and Delphinia – of that bunch, Fleeting, looks to be their main hope but has also become a hard horse to win with so might be filling a place rather than winning. The Stoute yard are another that have won this race recently – they run Sun Maiden, but having to give weight away makes her task a lot harder. The Dermot Weld runner – TARNAWA (e/w) could be interesting though as any runners this shrewd Irish yard send over shold always be respected. She’s a bit to find on the ratings but has won three of her last four and have proven form in soft ground – there should be more to come. However, it’s another race the John Gosden yard look to hold a lot of aces in with three runners – Sparkle Roll, Anapurna and STAR CATCHER. Of that trio, Anapurna and Star Catcher are very closely-matched, but with Frankie picking to ride Star Catcher that’s good enough for me. Anapurna was a good winner over 1m6f last time in France but the drop back to 1m4f might not be ideal and she was beaten 5 ¾ lengths by Star Catcher in her race before. Star Catcher is also a proven CD winner after landing the Ribblesdale Stakes here in June and is 2-from-2 on soft ground so the conditions should be fine.

 

3.20 - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

17/17 – Raced at least 3 times that season
16/17 – Raced at Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out
16/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
16/17 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
15/17 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
15/17 – Finished in the top three in their last race
14/17 – Favourites placed
13/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/17 – Raced at Ascot previously (6 won)
9/17 – Won their latest race
9/17 – Won at least 7 times previously
8/17 – Favourites that won
7/17 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/17 – Trained by John Gosden
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/17 – Trained by Freddie Head
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 2 and 7 have won 4 of the last 8 runnings

Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

TQ VERDICT: Several course specialists here – including Raising Sands, Accidental Agent, Lord Glitters and Century Dream, while with another Frankie/Gosden runner in King Of Comedy, plus this season’s 2000 Guineas winner – Magna Grecia – is back on the track after last being seen flopping in the Irish Guineas back in May. If back to his best, then he would certainly be dangerous to rule out, in a race the Aidan O’Brien yard have done well in over the years, but this will be the softest ground he’s encountered to date. Godolphin’s Benbatl returned last time with a smooth 5 length beating of King Of Comedy at HQ and that run along with being the top-rated in the field will make him hard to beat. However, the soft ground (won on good last time) is not ideal as he’s raced three times with some degree of soft (or heavy) in the ground and been beaten each time. That last run also came off a long break so there is also the dreaded ‘bounce-factor’ to take into account. So that leaves us with the French raider – THE REVENANT. This 4 year-old has won 8 of his 10 starts, including many on very soft and heavy ground so we know conditions will be spot-on for him. He bolted-up in a Group 2 at Longchamp last time out over this trip and looks well worth a crack at running in Group One company for the first time. Of the rest, we’ve another runner for the Dermot Weld yard – IMAGING (e/w) – he was only ½ a length behind The Revenant two runs ago in Germany and should be a lot fitter for a recent run (2) at Tipperary as that came off a 4 month break.

4.00 - Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f ITV

17/17 – Won at least 4 times previously
16/17 – Won between 4 and 8 times previously
16/17 – Aged 5 or younger
16/17 – Finished in the top 3 in their latest race
15/17 – Won over 1m2f previously
15/17 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
13/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/17 – Raced 5 or more times that season
10/17 – Won their last race
7/17 – Raced at either Longchamp (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
6/17 – Favourites unplaced
6/17 – Returned a double-figure price
5/17 – Favourites
4/17 – Won by a French-based trainer
3/17 – Ridden by Tom Queally
2/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (last 2)
2/17 – Trained by John Gosden (last 2)
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
Since 2011: Horses from stall 5 have won 2 of the last 6 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

TQ VERDICT: The first thing that leaps off the page here is that the Aidan O’Brien yard have NEVER won this race, but they will be trying to put that right here with the 122-rated Magical, who we last saw running fifth in the Arc. The drop back to 1m2f looks a good move too, but let’s not forget that she was beaten in the Fillies’ and Mares race at this meeting last season by CORONET, who also runs. This John Gosden-trained 5 year-old has 7lbs to find on these terms but she rarely runs a bad race here at Ascot – her form here reads 1-3-3-2. The drop back to 1m2f will be okay in these conditions too and was a nice winner on heavy ground in France last time out so heads here in tip-form form. She’s been freshened-up with a 2 month break too, with this race being a firm target all season. Japanese raider – Deirdre – was a shock winner of the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood back in August and should be thereabouts, but has 3 lengths to find with Magical on their Leopardstown run last month. Mehdaayih is another to note as her last run in France – when a beaten favourite – was too bad to be true. The worry would be the softer ground again here though. So, the other one with a big chance looks to be Addeybb. This 5 year-old was a nice winner of the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and has shown a liking for soft ground in the past too. He was a nice winner of the Rose Of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock last time out too and deserves a stab at this Group One level for the first time. However, that would be my concern. Yes, he’ll love the ground, but I can’t help thinking that he’s a horse that will just fall short of the top level, but mop-up plenty more Listed G2 & G3 contests.

 

4.40 - Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) Cl2 1m ITV

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 - Winners drawn 10 or lower
4/5 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-5 in weight
4/5 -  Winners ran at Newmarket last time out
4/5 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 - Previous winners were aged 5 years-old
1/5 - Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 10/1
Sharja Bridge (8/1) won this race in 2018
Trainers Roger Varian, David O’Meara, Roger Charlton, Saeed Bin Suroor and Marcus Tregoning have won the race in the past
Horses from stalls 12 or 13 have been placed in 3 of the last 4 runnings

TQ VERDICT: 20 runners here and despite the big-field we are looking like we are going to get a fairly short-priced favourite in Lord North. His chance is an obvious one after winning the Cambridgeshire with a bit up it’s sleeve last time out at Newmarket. However, a 12lb rise here makes life harder and even though there should be more to come (only had 5 career runs), there is certainly no value in his price. Looking at the trends, we’ve only had 5 past runnings, but with ALL five winners coming from stalls 10 or lower then, Lord North’s draw (20) might also be seen as a negative. 4 of the last 5 winners carried between 9-1 and 9-5 in weight too, so this is good news for GLEN SHIEL, Pogo, COMMANDER COLE and DUNKIRK HARBOUR. Of those four, only Pogo is drawn high so the other three – Glen Shiel, Commander Cole and Dunkirk Harbour might be worth having on your side. All three head here off the back of decent recent runs too, while Commander Cole also represents a yard (Bin Suroor) that have won this race in the past too. Of the rest Kick On has the form to get well and the very consistent Kynren should be in the mix. He’s a horse that loves Ascot and was a good winner of the Challenge Cup here over 7f two weeks ago. He’s up 6lbs for that so a career-best is needed, but with 12 top three finishes from his 16 runs then he’s not often far away in his races. Biometric, Amedeo Modigliani and Clon Coulis are others to consider.

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team

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