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23rd January 2022

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 26th Jan 2019

Sat TV Trends: 26th Jan 2018

Another massive day of horse racing this Saturday with trials day up at Cheltenham – their last meeting before the Festival in March. Therefore, plenty more clues to be had, including top races like the Cleeve Hurdle and Cotswold Chase.

The ITV cameras are also heading to Doncaster to take in the best of their action, including the ultra-competitive SkyBet Chase – a race the Alan King yard have won in two of the last three seasons.  

As always, we got it all covered with all the key trends – use these stats to help find the best past winning profiles to help whittle down the runners and hopefully pin-point a few winners.

Cheltenham Trials Day Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

12.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f RUK

13/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
12/15 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Had previously won at least once over hurdles in the UK
9/15 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the market
9/15 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
9/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – French bred (including last 6 winners)
8/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/15 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (3 winners, Defi Du Seuil  2017, Peace & Co 2015, Katchit 2007)
4/15 – Trained by Alan King
4/15 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
5/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham previously
3/15 – Won by a German bred horse
3/15 – Won by an Irish bred horse
Nicky Henderson has trained 4 of the last 6 winners
The last two winners have been owned by JP McManus

2018 Winner: APPLE’S SHAKIRA (N Henderson) 1/7 fav

Nelson River was a good winner over course and distance last time out – staying on really well up the hill. There could be more to come, and we know he handles the track well. Alan King has a good record in the race, so his Our Power is another to consider. However, it’s hard to get away from the recent record of trainer Nicky Henderson in this race – he’s won 4 of the last 6. With that in mind, his ADJALI gets the nod. This 4 year-old was a fair second last time out at Chepstow but was only beaten a neck. The first two that day pulled well clear of the third, while the winner – Quel Destin – looks a useful sort too (winning his last four) so the overall form looks solid.  Of the rest, the Dan Skelton runner Proektorat was well-fancied in the race Nelson River won here last time but unseated early on. If none-the-worse for that experience, then he’s not one to give up on either. Of those at a bigger price, the Paul Nicholls runner – Dogan – could surprise.

13.15 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f RUK

15/15 – Aged 8 or younger
14/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (2 winners, La Landiere Cathcart 2003, Close Brothers Novices’ Chase Mister Whitaker 2018)
14/15 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK previously
13/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/15 – Finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
12/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) in the UK previously
11/15 – Priced 13/2 or shorter
11/15 – Rated 128 or higher
9/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
9/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Carried 11-2 or more
6/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Ran at Kempton last time out
5/15 – French bred
3/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/15 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/15 – Won with 11-12 in weight
2/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/15 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
1/15 – Winning favourites

2018 Winner: MISTER WHITAKER (M Channon) 6/1

The consistent Dently De Mee and the Dan Skelton-trained Spiritofthegames can go well, but the pick is the Alan King-trained AZZERTI. This 7 year-old gets a thumbs-up for most of the main trends and the yard often do well with their chasers at the track. A 2lb rise for a recent Ascot win looks fair and with just three career outings should have more to offer. The yard also took the race in 2012 with a similar sort and Richard Johnson certainly catches the eye in the saddle. Of the res, Kildisart can do best of the rest.

1.50 – Spectra Cyber Security Solutions Trophy Handicap Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f ITV

14/15 – Had won over at least 2m5f (fences) previously
13/15 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
13/15 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
13/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/15 – Rated 130 or higher
12/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Aged 8 or older
11/15 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before (7 won)
11/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
9/15 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
9/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Carried 10-7 or less
5/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Won by the Hobbs yard

2018 Winner: FRODON (P Nicholls) 13/2

Siruh Du Lac has done little wrong of late – winning his last two in decent fashion – but is up another 5lbs here and being a 6 year-old does have the main age trend to overcome. 11 of the last 15 winners were 8 or older – with 9 of the last 15 winners of this race aged 8 or 9. One that ticks a fair few of the main stats is BALLYHILL (e/w), who is also a proven course and distance winner here. He was a fair third last time out over this course and distance too and gets in here off the same mark. Any rain would help his cause too and the yard took this in 20177 as well. Paul Nicholls won the race last year so anything he runs should also be respected – with Brelab D’As his sole runner. This 8 year-old was a good winner last time out at Haydock and looks an improving sort. Activial, The Kings Writ and the Henderson runner – Janika – are sure to be popular too, but I’ll stick with Ballyhill here, who is also the only CD winner in the line-up.  

2.25 - BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4

15/15 – Officially rated 151 or higher
14/15 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
14/15 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (8 had won)
14/15 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
13/15 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
11/15 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
11/15 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
10/15 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (3) or Kempton (4) last time
10/15 – Priced 7/1 or less
9/15 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
9/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Unplaced last time out
7/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/15 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Won by a French-bred horse
2/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (4 wins in total)
2/15 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
1/15 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
0/15 – Favourites
10 of the last 11 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 15/2
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

2018 Winner: DEFINITLY RED (B Ellison) 7/1

The last horse to land this race and then take the Gold Cup in the same season was Looks Like Trouble in 2000 and before that Master Oats in 1995 so this contest is probably in need of a bit of a boost if we still want to refer to it as a Gold Cup trial. It’s, however, also unlikely we are going to see that change this year when looking at the runners, but you never know! Frodon will be all the rage after his Caspian Caviar Gold Cup win here last month but this improving Paul Nicholls chaser, who is also the top-rated in the field, does have a few key trends to overcome. He’s yet to win over this sort of trip, plus 11 of the last 15 winners of this race were aged 9 or 10 – he’s still only a 7 year-old. The same age stat applies to the recent Welsh National winner – Elegant Escape – who is also 7, but what we do know about him is that he stays. He’s also yet to finish out of the top three from 10 runs over fences (4 wins) so looks sure to play a big part. My only niggle with him is that he’s run here at Cheltenham three times now (2 hurdles, 1 fences) and is yet to set the world alight 5-7-3. Minella Rocco was runner-up in the 2017 Gold Cup but hasn’t really built on that and not sure I want to be siding with a horse that’s won just one of his 13 chase starts. He has, however, had a recent wind op so could easily kick-on from here, but all that tells me is that he’s had issues in the past. Henderson is still to win this race but in Terrefort and Valtor he’s got big chances. The former is much better than his recent flop (last of 4) at Sandown and was a decent second in the JLT Novices’ Chase at the Festival here in March. He is still only 6 so should have more to come but since this race was first run in 1980, we’ve only seen one 6 year-old winner take the race (Cyfor Malta, 1999). On the other hand, Valtor is an experienced French import that heads over here late in life. This 10 year-old has had 50+ races in France and made a good impression when winning on his UK debut at Ascot – he’s interesting. In short, Frodon and Elegant Escape are sure to go well, but with stamina issues over Frodon I’d much rather be with ELEGANT ESCAPE of that pair, while of those at a slightly bigger price VALTOR could be the better value of the Henderson runners with Daryl Jacob picking Terrefort instead of Valtor – however, James Bowen rode Valtor last time at Ascot so there is every chance connections are just wanting to stick with the jockey that knowns him.  

3.00 – Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m4f110y ITV4

13/13 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
12/13 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
11/13 – Favourites placed
11/13 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
11/13 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
10/13 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
10/13 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
10/13 – Won their latest race
10/13 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
9/13 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
8/13 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
8/13 – Priced 7/2 or less
5/13 – Favourites that won
4/13 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/13 – Raced at Newbury last time out
3/13 – Won by the Alan King stable
3/13 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
3/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/13 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable

2018 Winner: SANTINI (N Henderson) 4/1

Brewin ‘Upastorm will have the services of Richard Johnston and after a fine fourth last time out at Newbury behind the useful Champ then he sets a fair standard. Course and distance winner Jarveys Plate won well here last time too and the form of his second to Elixir De Nuit prior to that has been given a boost with that horse going onto land the Tolworth Hurdle – he rates a big danger. However, the Nicky Henderson yard took this last year and with a number of entries earlier in the week they pin their hopes on BIRCHDALE. This 5 year-old won well on his UK debut at Warwick last month and with that coming over a tad further then this drop in trip at this stiffer track should be fine. Connections are keen to get some more experience into him but he’s clearly a horse held in high regard. The yard should also know a fair bit where they stand with Brewin ‘Upastorm, as they also handle the horse that beat him last time – Champ.

3.35 – galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

13/14 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
13/14 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
13/14 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
12/14 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
11/14 – Went to run in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle (4 won)
11/14 – Officially rated 154 or higher
10/14 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle
9/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
9/14 – Finished either 1st or 2nd in their last race
8/14 – Favourites placed
8/14 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
7/14 – Won their latest race
6/14 – Favourites that won
6/14 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
2/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh

Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown

Unowhatimeanharry won the race in 2017

2018 Winner: AGRAPART (N Williams) 9/1

Black Op is switched back to hurdles after not quite cutting the mustard over fences, but I’d prefer to see him return to form first. Agrapart took this race last year so can’t be ruled out either but the ground was heavy that day and it’s unlikely to be here. He was also beaten by both Wholestone and Paisley Park this season and in these conditions, both should have his measure again – if the ground did turn really soft that would, however, improve his chances dramatically. Wholestone is generally a consistent performer and wasn’t disgraced when second to Midnight Shadow here on New Year’s Day beaten just over 2 lengths. His form at the track reads 1-2-1-1-3-1-2-3-2, so looks sure to run his race at a track he loves and looks a must for each-way or placepot punters. The 2017 winner Unowhatimeanharry will have his supporters, despite now being 11 years-old, after winning well at Newbury this season but needs to bounce back from a recent fall at Ascot. Sam Spinner has unseated the last twice so despite showing potential last season has rather lost his way and needs to bounce back – not for me. CD winner AUX PTITS SOINS (e/w) turned back the years last time to win here on New Year’s Day – this is harder but he’s now won 4 of this 8 starts over hurdles and it could just be that the Skelton yard are finally starting to unleash his full potential at the age of 9 – he’s interesting at a track he’s now 2 from 3 at and also gets 6lbs from the main players. A bit like Sam Spinner did last year, Midnight Shadow and Paisley Park are the new kids on the block that both recorded top wins last time out. They are fast-improving staying hurdlers that are closely rated but of the two Midnight Shadow is at least proven at the track, whereas Paisley Park has a bit to prove after running down the field here in the Albert Bartlett last season.  

4.10 - Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+) RUK Soft 2m1f

14/14 – Rated 121 or higher
13/14 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
12/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
12/14 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
11/14 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
10/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner La Fontana)
8/14 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/14 – Unplaced favourites
7/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
5/14 – French bred
4/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/14 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
9 of the last 10 winners carried 10-12 or less in weight

2018 Winner: REMILUC (C Gordon) 20/1

With 9 of the last 10 winners of this race carrying 10-12 or less in weight then this looks a good stat to apply to the race and should also knock a fair few out. Having raced in the last 9 weeks and having track form are other key things to note. One horse that ticks those trends is the Robert Walford-trained OUR MERLIN (e/w). This 7 year-old was also a close third in this race last year and gets in off the same mark. He was second to a promising sort last time at Sandown too so heads here in good order, while with Stan Sheppard able to claim 3lbs then he’s actually slightly better off than last year when Harry Cobden (no claim) rode him. Flash The Steel, who was a good winner at Doncaster last time out and a 5lb rise for that looks fair. Topweight Chti Balko can’t be ruled out either as this as he’s only been out of the top three 4 times from his 14 runs over hurdles, but you just feel with 11-12 to carry be might find one or two too good again here.

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV4)

2.05 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The River Don Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y ITV4

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
9/9 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
8/9 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
8/9 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/9 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/9 – Won last time out
6/9 – Placed favourites
5/9 – Irish bred
3/9 – Winning favourite
3/9 – Had raced at Doncaster before
The average SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1
The last 7 winners were all aged 5 or 6 years-old

2018 Winner: ENNISCOFFEY OSCAR (E Lavelle) 9/2

Just the four runners here. Bailarico was a nice winner at Kempton last time out so can go well, but it’s hard to get away from the 7 year-old Truckers Lodge and proven course and distance winner – COMMODORE BARRY. The former won well at Chepstow two runs back and then wasn’t disgraced to be a close second at the same Welsh venue over Christmas – he should be going close. But with three of the last 9 winners having raced at Doncaster before then the Kim Bailey-trained Commodore Barry just edges it for me. He showed plenty of guts to get the job done last time here over this trip and in similar conditions there is no reason why he can’t go well again. He’s now won 4 of his 6 starts over hurdles and being a 6 year-old ticks the key age trend that has seen ALL of the last 7 winners aged 5 or 6.   

2.40 - OLBG.com Yorkshire Rose Mares´ Hurdle (Registered as The Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Aged 8 or younger
8/9 – Had won over this trip before
8/9 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
7/9 – Won last time out
6/9 – Went onto run in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/9 – Won between 1-3 times before (hurdles)
5/9 – Irish bred
4/9 - Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1

2018 Winner: MARIA’S BENEFIT (S Edmunds) 10/11 fav

Irish Roe was a close second in this race last year but has become a hard horse to win with in recent years – with just one success from her last eight races now. The winning run for Chica Buena came to an end last time at Musselburgh but with just 10-5 to carry here and getting a lot of weight from the others then she could easily bounce back with the in-form Brian Hughes riding. Indefatigable is another to consider - however, despite this racing being won by a horse aged 8 or younger in all of the last 9 years the it’s hard to get away from the rise up the ranks of LADY BUTTONS. This 9 year-old is a horse that’s matured with age and this season has won three times. She’s a versatile sort that has been going well over fences and hurdles and looks to have a lot going for her again here. She stays further than this 2m 1/2 f trip after winning over further (fences) here last time and is equally as effective on any ground. She’s a strong travelling type that jumps well and even though it won’t be easy giving the weight away she’s certainly the form horse and the one to beat.

3.15 – Sky Bet Chase (A Handicap) (formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH4 3m ITV4

12/13 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
12/13 – Carried 11-2 or less
12/13 – Aged 9 or younger
10/13 – Officially rated 130 or higher
10/13 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
9/13 – Carried 10-12 or less
9/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
8/13 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
7/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/13 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/13 – Irish bred
4/13 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 9/1

Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell

Other Stats:
4 of the last 12 winners of this race went onto contest the William Hill Trophy (now JLT Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
4 of the last 12 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

2018 Winner: WAKANDA (S Smith) 8/1

12 of the last 13 Skybet Chase winners have been aged 9 or younger so with that in mind the likes of Frederici, Monbeg River, On Tour, Go Conquer and Warriors Tale seemingly have a key stat to overcome. Trainers Paul Nicholls and Alan King have often done well in the race so their runners Art Mauresque & Warriors Tale (Nicholls) and Dingo Dollar (King) will be popular, with the last-named of those looking the likely favourite. Dingo Dollar is a past course and distance winner too that ran well for much of the way in the Ladbrokes Gold Trophy last time at Newbury and eventually finished third. The drop back in trip will help and this 7 year-old looks sure to run well. However, he’s also likely to not be much value in the betting and we’ve only had two winning favourites from the last 13 runnings. O O Seven will be looking to give trainer Nicky Henderson his first win in this race and is the only other proven course and distance winner in the field – it won’t be easy though with 11-11 to carry but the yard has a cracking 39% record with their chasers here so he can’t be ignored. With 9 of the last 13 winners carrying 10-13 or less then if we add in the age stat too then it’s only the Peter Niven-trained BRIAN BORANHA (e/w) that ticks these two stats. He was a good winner last time out at Sedgefield and even though he’s up 9lbs for that and in a better race is a horse clearly in good order and that has a decent record over fences so far (8 runs, 3 wins). 10 of the last 13 winners had won over at least 3m before so recent Wetherby scorer Willie Boy has this to overcome. The other interesting one is the Venetia Williams-trained CALIPTO (e/w). This 9 year-old bounced back to form last time out at Wincanton to win with a bit up it’s sleeve and even though he’s another that is yet to try this far it looks like it will suit. He’s only up 5lbs for that recent 4 length win and even though he might need to brush up his jumping he’s a horse that could easily kick-on with that recent win under his belt.


NOT UPDATED IN 2018 or 2019

2.50 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase Cl2 3m6f37y

8/9 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Aged 9 or older
7/9 – Aged between 9-11 years-old
6/9 – Had won over this Cross Country Course before
6/9 – Carried 11-8 in weight
6/9 – Irish-trained winners
4/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/9 – Trained by Edna Bolger
3/9 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/9 – Ridden by Nina Carberry
2/9 – Ridden by Patrick Mullins
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2

2016 Winner: JOSIES ORDERS (E Bolger) 11/4

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