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26th May 2020

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 28th Sept 2019

 

  • NEWMARKET: Key Trends To Unravel Cambridgeshire………
  • HAYDOCK: Two LIVE Races From The Lancashire Track……..
  • TRAINERS-QUOTES: It’s Not Always About The Winners!........

Hi,

Just the SIX LIVE ITV races to take in this Saturday, but it’s a decent spread!

We’ve four at Newmarket that include the bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap, plus two more at Haydock. We’ll be trying to unravel the big-field Cambridgeshire below, but there are several key trends that should help.

For example, did you know thirteen of the last seventeen Cambridgeshire winners were aged between four and six, plus also came from a double-figure stall.

The Group One Cheveley Park and Middle Park Stakes are always key races to take in on the Newmarket card too – this gives us a chance to see some of the potential stars of the future in action and we’ll have our thoughts and the key trends on these races below.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all the key trends for the LIVE ITV races.

Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend

 

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TQ TRAINERS IN TIP-TOP FORM Several nice winners over the last week or so, plus many decent-priced each-way returns too. SPICE WAR (1st 11/10), ISAAC WONDER (1st 7/2) & ZAMPERINI (1st 5/1) were a few top winners for the Oliver Sherwood, Michael Scudamore and Gary Moore yards, while a little reminder that the TQ service is not always about the winners!

Yes, there are plenty of top each-way calls from the yards too – Like these two below from Gary Moore and Lee Cater – both at 14/1.

“Comeonfeeltheforce – Down in grade here from last time so that will help. Good apprentice booked to ride in Thore Hammer Hansen – he’s riding well and takes off a handy 5lbs too. Draw 9 not too bad and we are a proven CD winner at the track. Charlton horse has been well backed but doesn’t look great value. Should go well and feel we are the each-way call in the race at around 16/1.”

2nd 14/1 Lee Carter

“First run for BRAMBLEDOWN over hurdles and he has not disgraced himself running on the flat with a mark in the 60’s. Will have to see if BRAMBLEDOWN sees out the trip – but if he does he could go well on his hurdles debut.”

2nd 14/1 Gary Moore

 

While, members often cash-in on information that will give them a steer away from certain fancied horses. Another example of this in midweek as the fancied Gary Moore runner – Beat The Judge (4/1) was expected to need the run. Gary was right with the horse running way too free and finishing second to last.

Here’s what Gary told TQ members in the morning of the race………………..

 

“Been running over hurdles, but this is his first run for the stable on the flat and also first run for 5 months. Jockey's 7lb claim will help, but probably best-watched on this occasion.”

 

Yet, punters that were not armed with this info still backed the horse into second favourite on the day!

 

 

PLUS, THE TQ VIEW DAILY SELECTIONS ARE +88pts THIS YEAR

(See below)

That’s right - Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 9 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

All TQ View selections are also proofed to Tipster Platforms and win, lose or draw recorded.

See here………………….

TQ VIEW (the day’s best quote) IS SHOWING A DECENT +88PTS PROFIT SINCE JAN 2019

USE THE TQ INFO TO BACK OR LAY - Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

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Who Best To Tell You How A Horse Will Perform…….but the ACTUAL Trainers!

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MEET THE TRAINERS

TQ has some leading jumps yards – like Gary Moore, Tim Vaughan, Oliver Sherwood, Jamie Snowden, Robin Dickin, Henry Oliver, Michael Scudamore, Suzy Smith and James Evans – keep things ticking over for jump fans.

While the likes of Gary Moore, Scott Dixon, Charlie Fellowes, Harry Dunlop, Gay Kelleway, Julia Feilden, Dave Griffiths, Mark Loughnane, Simon Dow, Daniel Kubler and Lee Carter continue to supply members with top-class info on the flat.

You can meet all the TQ trainers here and also find out a bit more about them

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JOIN TODAY and tap into top daily info from 19 leading yards

Just drop us a line here and we can discuss any TOP OFFERS we’ve got on at the moment.

 

See a sample of this week’s winning quotes…………………

 

“Comeonfeeltheforce – Down in grade here from last time so that will help. Good apprentice booked to ride in Thore Hammer Hansen – he’s riding well and takes off a handy 5lbs too. Draw 9 not too bad and we are a proven CD winner at the track. Charlton horse has been well backed but doesn’t look great value. Should go well and feel we are the each-way call in the race at around 16/1.”

2nd 14/1 Lee Carter

 

“Spice is a lovely big horse – he also has a great temperament and is easy to deal with . He won well at Kempton last time out and that was over a trip that we felt was 2f less than ideal. Step up in grade, but we feel the track and step up in trip will help on that score. The plan will be to go jumping soon but it makes sense to take advantage of the fair handicap mark on the flat he’s got at the moment. Ton, who rode last time, remains in the saddle, so a good run expected.

1st 11/10 Oliver Sherwood

 

“Twasn’t The Plan – Can’t fault his consistency at the moment – been placed in the top four in all his last 7 runs. The form of his last run took a bit of a knock at the weekend though with the winner running below-par at Plumpton. Chasing has been the plan though so first run over the bigger obstacles today and hoping this will bring out more improvement. Schools well at home – probably likely to find 2 or 3 with more experience too good but if the jumping holds up should still run well. “

2nd 9/1 Tim Vaughan

 

“Isaac Wonder – Very happy with the horse after his second at Sedgefield last time out. That was his debut run over fences too so jumped well and learned a lot. Same mark here and with that run also coming off a 4 month break then can be expected to have come on for it. Should go well.”

1st 7/2 Isaac Wonder

 

“Hoping to see Secret Acquisition build on her promising debut and go one place better today over this extra furlong. Draw (12) means a bit of luck is needed and with a better starting point would have been a 3 star. Still looking for a nice run though.”

2nd 8/1 Daniel Kubler

 

“First run for BRAMBLEDOWN over hurdles and he has not disgraced himself running on the flat with a mark in the 60’s. Will have to see if BRAMBLEDOWN sees out the trip – but if he does he could go well on his hurdles debut.”

2nd 14/1 Gary Moore

 

“Zamperini – I am hoping that the rain will materialise in time for ZAMPERINI to take some sting out of the ground. Well at home, plus a course and distance winner here at Plumpton – should have every chance if ground conditions are not too firm for him.”

1st 5/1 Gary Moore

 

“BAN SHOOF has been running with consistency all summer on the level. First outing over hurdles but fit from the flat and if BAN SHOOF takes to hurdling he could put in a decent round as he appears to act on quick ground and has taken well to the hurdles at home. The Sherwood and King horses set the standard but we might be the e/w value. “

2nd 16/1 Gary Moore

 

“Circle Of Stars – Was poor last time out but that was in a falsely run amateur race and you can put a line through that. Going on his run previous to that (2nd Brighton) he would have a great chance. Aled Beech rides and takes off a handy 7lbs too.”

3rd 14/1 Charlie Fellowes

 

You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

 

 

SATURDAY LIVE ITV RACING FREE TIPS AND TRENDS

 

Newmarket: Key Trends To Unravel Cambridgeshire………

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RACINGTV)

1.50 - Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m ITV4

17/17 – Had won one or two races before
16/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Had won over 7f or further before
16/17 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
15/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/17 - Either US or Irish bred
12/17 – Foaled in Feb or March
11/17 – Had only won over 7f before
9/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by John Gosden
4/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner 5 times
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

TQ VERDICT: A certain Frankie Dettori has a good record in this race – winning it 5 times – so his mount Sound Of Cannons can’t be overlooked and heads here off the back of a fair second behind another of the runners – Pyledriver - in a Listed race at Haydock – there shouldn’t be much between them. With 10 of the 12 winners being drawn 6 or lower then of the 8 runners this is bad news for two of the Aidan O’Brien runners – Year Of The Tiger and Iberia, who are drawn 7 and 8. The hat-trick seeking Surf Dancer has been catching the eye with his recent wins but this is a big step up in grade and is also up to 1m for the first time. It will be a shock if the Paul Cole-trained Highland Chief isn’t involved too – he ran the classy Pinatubo to 4 ½ lengths last time out at Ascot and that form looks rock solid. He won’t find anything of that calibre in here. Having said that, the Andrew Balding runner – KAMEKO – has certainly shown a decent level of form too and was only just touched-off last time out in the Group Three Solario Stakes at Sandown. That was only his second career run so should have more to come, while after running on well over that 7f trip this step up to 1m looks ideal. Oisin Murphy takes the ride.

 

2.25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV4

17/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
17/17 – Had won over 6f before
15/17 – Foaled in Feb or March
15/17 – Had not run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
15/17 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had 3 or more previous runs
12/17 – Went onto run in the 1,000 Guineas the following season (2 won it)
12/17 – Won last time out
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
9/17 – Had won exactly 2 previous races
8/17 – Horses from stall 6 that finished in the top 3
7/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/17 – Winners drawn in stall 6
2/17 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas the following season
2/17 – Trained by the Hannon yard
3/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (last 3 runnings)
2/17 – Trained by Brian Meehan
9 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

TQ VERDICT: The Cheveley Park runner – Dark Lady – will be a popular winner trying to win their own race and she’s not without a squeak either. She beat another of the runners – Millisle – by a short-head last time at Salisbury and if building on those efforts this pair enter the mix. Raffle Prize will be all the rage too as he’s the top-rated in the field and was only just beaten at this level last time out in France. He’s a two-time Group Two winner already and is proven on a wide range of different ground types. She’s a big player but with Frankie riding too may be little value. French raider – Tropbeau – has to be on the shortlist too. She’s won her last three races (all over 7f), with the last of those an easy G2 win at Deauville. She won’t mind it if more rain comes and stays further than this 6f trip. However, the two I’m going to play here are LIVING IN THE PAST and ETOILE. The former was a gutsy winner from the front of the G2 Lowther Stakes at York last month and did well that day to hold off the useful Liberty Beach. She probably wouldn’t want any more rain though so if that does come and any sort of ‘soft’ in the going description then she’d probably be a ‘no bet’. Etoile hails from the Aidan O’Brien yard that has won the last three runnings of this. She’s only been out once but that was a smooth win at Naas in a G3. Yes, more is needed but the yard would have had many options in this race so the fact they’ve chosen her to try and win the pot for a fourth year in-a-row looks significant.

 

3.00 - Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) Cl1 6f ITV

16/16 – Won over 6f previously
15/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
14/16 – Won their last race
14/16 – Won at least twice previously
13/16 – Had run 3 or more times previously
13/16 – Never raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
12/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
12/16 – Foaled in either Feb or March
10/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
5/16 – Ran at Deauville last time out
5/16 – Favourites that won
5/16 – Won by an Irish-based stable
4/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
1/16 – Winners that came from stall 1
Aidan O’Brien won the race in – 2000, 2001, 2004, 2011, 2017 & 2018

TQ VERDICT: We’ve three unbeaten colts in this race – Mums Tipple, Siskin and Earthlight – so at least two of them are going to come out of this contest with their records tarnished. Of that trio, the Godolphin runner – Earthlight – is the top-rated and his chance will be enhanced if Raffle Prize wins the previous race as he beat that horse by a neck last time out in France. Any rain would help his cause too. Siskin has 6lbs to find with Earthlight on the ratings but he’s another with an unbeaten record after winning his last four races, including the Group One Phoenix Stakes when he had Monarch Of Egypt back in second. The runner-up reposes here and with the Aidan O’Brien yard having won this race 6 times since 2000 then he looks their best chance of adding to that tally. They also run Lope Y Fernandez and King Neptune too. Threat and Golden Horde certainly have a chance too, especially the former – Threat – who is the only proven course winner in the field and heads here off the back of two Group Two wins. But Threat’s yard – Richard Hannon – have another big fancy in the race – MUMS TIPPLE – and it was hard to not be impressed with his 11 length romp at York last time out. The time was decent too and even though it’s hard to know what he beat and that this is a big leap up in grade it was a very impressive display that can’t be ignored. With Ryan Moore riding for O’Brien (he rode Mums Tipple last time), it’s the title-chasing Oisin Murphy that takes over in the saddle.

 

3.40 – Bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m1f ITV

17/17 – Aged 6 or younger
16/17 – Won 3 or more times in their career
14/17 – Carried 9-5 or less
13/17 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
13/17 – Won from a double-figure stall
13/17 – Unplaced favourites
13/17 – Had won over 1m2f before
12/17 – Finished 5th or better last time out
12/17 – Returned a double (or treble) figure price in the betting
11/17 – Had 5 or more runs that season
11/17 – Rated between 90-100
9/17 – Carried 8-12 or less
5/17 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by John Gosden
3/17 – Won their last race
11 of the last 13 winners had run in the last 9 weeks
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 21/1

TQ VERDICT: The normal big-field line-up here with 33 runners heading to post. There are plenty of key trends to take into the race though like ALL of the last 17 winners aged 6 or younger – this is a negative for Nicholas T. But with 13 of the last 17 winners aged between 4-6 years-old then this does knock out the 3 year-olds – Dark Vision, Lord North, Good Birthday, Smile A Mile, Korcho, Chance, Majestic Dawn and the well-fancied pair of Le Don De Vie & Fifth Position. Horses drawn in double-figures is another thing to note, but with 30+ runners most years then the bulk of the entries will have high draws anyway! Placed 5th or better last time out is another trend to look at, while 14 of the last 17 winners carried 9-5 or less in weight. Trainer John Gosden has a good record in the race so his Lord North, with Frankie riding will be on most people’s shortlist. However, at 3 years-old this might be a negative, plus he’s only had four career runs which might not be ideal in a race with 32 other runners in. Having raced in the last few months is another trend to have on side. So, taking most of those main stats on board the ones that stand out are – BEDOUIN’S STORY, BALTIC BARON, YOU’RE HIRED, LITTLE JO, ZZORO and ISOMER. It might be worth having a small saver on the last four-named as they are all massive prices, but of that six BALTIC BARON (e/w) and BEDOUIN’S STORY (e/w) look the more realistic. The former has draw 30 and will be ridden by the in-form Danny Tudhope for the David O’Meara yard. This 4 year-old was third (of 3) last time out at Doncaster but not beaten far but looks the sort to benefit from this extra furlong. Godolphin’s Bedouin’s Story has won 4 times (from 13 runs) on the turf but is another that should be well-suited by the extra yardage if his breeding is anything to go by. The horse acts on any ground too and draw 12 (in the middle) will give jockey Hector Crouch plenty of options.

 

 

HAYDOCK: Two LIVE Races From The Lancashire Track…….

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Downlaod The App At Virgin Bet Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV4

11/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
10/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Had won 1 or 2 times before
9/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Drawn in stalls 8 or lower
6/12 – Unplaced favourites
7/12 – Irish bred winners
5/12 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Tom Dascombe
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

TQ VERDICT: Course and distance winners – Mikmak, Club Wexford and Mitchum Swagger have shown in the past they’ve a liking for the track so a case can be made for them. Not winning last time out is a key trend too but 8 of the 9 runners fit the bill here – with just Gabrial The Wire, who won at Chester last time, being the only recent winner. But with the Tom Dascombe yard having won 2 of the last 7 renewals then his BARRISTAN THE BOLD gets the nod. This 3 year-old was a close third last time out at Chester but ran on well despite not getting much room that day to indicate the step up to 1m will suit – hopefully the horse can make amends here.

 

3.15 – Virgin Bet Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

12/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/12 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
12/12 – Had won over 5f before
11/12 – Aged 6 or younger
10/12 – Came from stalls 7-11 (inc)
9/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/12 – Carried 8-11 or more in weight
9/12 – Had won between 2-4 times before
8/12 – Favourites placed
7/12 – Rated between 92-96
7/12 – Had raced at Haydock before
7/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
5/12 – Winning favourites
4/12 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/12 – Trained by Jamie Osborne
2/12 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/12 – Ridden by Adam Kirby
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: With 11 of the last 12 winners aged 6 or younger then of the 14 runners Poyle Vinnie and Stake Acclaim have this age stat as a negative. 10 of the last 12 winners also came from stalls 7-11 (inc), so if that’s to be repeated then MAKANAH, HYPERFOCUS, POYLE VINNIE, SHE CAN BOOGIE and STAKE ACCLAIM tick this trend. However, with the age stat ruling out Stake Acclaim and Poyle Vinnie then we are down to just three and if the prices allow then we might be able to have an interest in all three. She Can Boogie (drawn 10) ran well to be third here last time out and has been dropped a pound and also has Jane Elliott riding to claim 3lbs this time too. This means she’s 4lbs better off and that should see her go close, while any more rain would be a further plus. Hyperfocus comes from the in-form Tim Easterby yard that have had a lot of winners this midweek. This 5 year-old was 12th in the Silver Cup last time but lost a front shoe that day and certainly shows enough pace to warrant this drop down to 5f. The final runners – Makanah – was last seen running 7th in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster and prior to that run was a fine fourth to the improving Dakota Gold at York – a repeat of that run would see him go very close.

 

 

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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