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25th October 2020

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 4th May 2019

  • SATURDAY ITV RACING: It’s Guineas Weekend at HQ………
  • NEWMARKET: 1,000 Guineas Trends for Sunday…..
  • Trainers Quotes: TQ View Winners Keep Coming…….

 

Hi,

It’s pretty much flat all the way now for the next four months and we hit the ground running this weekend as it’s Guineas time at Newmarket.

We saw some nice winners with the free bets last week too, with the likes of Black Corton, Altior, Hey Gaman, Harambe (e/w) and Step Back (e/w) giving us some nice returns – we’ll be looking for more of the same this weekend with bundles going on.

The ITV cameras are at Newmarket on Saturday and Sunday to take in the first two of the English Classics – 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas – plus the main supporting races from flats HQ, while there’s also LIVE action at Goodwood.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien will be hoping to win Saturday’s 2,000 Guineas for an amazing tenth time, while - Did you know ALL of the last 17 winners finished in the top three last time out?

The on Sunday, the 1,000 Guineas takes centre stage – a contest O’Brien has won four times, including in two of the last three years. Did you know, 8 of the last 11 winners of the 1,000 Guineas came from stalls 2-8?

As always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you and as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes………TQ Winners Continue to Flow…………

Plenty more to shout about over the last week of so – as you can see below – not only have the regular quotes been pointing members to lots of winners, but the TQ VIEW selections are also in flying form with some great returns.

Socialites Red, Ornate, Larry, Mayfair Spirit and Gas Monkey were more top winners for the day’s best quote that is operating at decent 30+pts profit over the last few weeks of April.

 

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Here’s just a sample of some top quotes recently……………….
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“Samovar – Probably got Honey Gg to beat here but Sam is in good form and we are a pound lower than last time when down the field here. Hung a bit in the closing stages that day but we feel this drop in grade and against easier opposition won’t put as much pressure on him and hopeful that won’t happen again. Certainly, starting to look well-handicapped too and draw 4 is fine. If all 8 run then would like to think we’ve got a much better chance in this grade today. His last runs at the track in this class read – 2-2-1-4! 2 1/2 stars.”
1st 6/1 Scott Dixon

 

 “Approve The Dream – Is a horse we thought would be progressive – he ran well enough at Kempton last time but needed the run. He’s dropped 4lbs for that now so falls into this grade and the step up to 1m will suit. He will outrun his odds and hopefully finish in the money.”

2nd 16/1 Julia Feilden

 

“Gas Monkey – Has certainly been living up to his name! He has probably thrown away a couple of races lately by not wanting to hit the front – he has plenty of ability though so we are trying a hood today as it could be that he doesn’t like the noise of the crowd in the stands. If this works he should win! Shelley rides.”

1st 3/1 (from 9/2) Julia Feilden TQ VIEW

 

“Oud Metha Bridge – Is yet to win on the turf but has run well at Yarmouth and is 8lbs better on the grass. The straight mile suits him and we are taking off 7lbs with Sean’s claim. He really ought to have a fair each-way chance here.”

1st 9/2 Julia Feilden

 

“Buckland Boy – Is a late developer who should be better this year. He should be fine on the track and ground, plus has a good draw too in stall 3. He is ready to run and should make a bold bid.”

1st 8/1 Charlie Fellowes

 

“Mayfair Spirit – Won nicely at Nottingham and looks to have improved for that race. He is a character but is still ahead of his mark and will go well again today with plenty in his favour.”

1st 9/2 (from 5/1) Charlie Fellowes TQ VIEW

 

“LARRY has had a decent season picking up a nice win here at Sandown early on in the year. Be good to finish with a win and he has been freshened up after his last run at Newbury. Has to overcome top weight but he should run well.”

1st 3/1 (from 6/1) Gary Moore TQ VIEW

 

“Weststreet – Harry Beswick gave Weststreet the most unbelievable ride last time out to get up on the line and win by a short head after a four mile race, it was lovely for his owners who have had to be very patient over the last couple of seasons due to injuries. The ground and the trip were perfect for him on that occasion and hopefully he will encounter the same ground today, he and Piton Pete are both by Westerner and both love heavy ground so we are hoping the rain comes. Up just 5lbs and Leighton takes over but the horse is very well so as long as the ground is soft enough should have a decent e/w chance.

1st 11/2 Oliver Sherwood

You can see the best of our recent quotes here

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 6 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!

Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

YOUR direct line through to the UK’s TOP Trainers – EVERY time they have a horse running…

Be a fly-on-the-wall at the UK’s TOP yards…

Continue to peek behind the stable door to see how the horses are REALLY performing at home… And what the Trainers REALLY think about their chances…?

Get involved and tap into top daily info from 19 leading yards, below - Just drop us a line here and we can discuss any offers we’ve got on at the moment.

 

You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

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ITV RACING: It’s Guineas Weekend at Newmarket, plus We’ve LIVE Action From Goodwood…………………….

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Spring Lodge Stakes (Handicap) (Formerly The Suffolk Stakes) Cl2 1m1f ITV

14/14 – Had won at least twice before
14/14 – Had won over at least a mile before
12/14 – Priced 12/1 or shorter
12/14 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
12/14 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
11/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/14 – Returned between 9/1 and 12/1 in the betting
9/14 – Rated between 90 and 96
8/14 – Aged 4 years-old
6/14 – Having their first run of the season
6/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Irish bred
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 - Winning favourites
Trainer Charlie Appleby won the race in 2018
Just 1 winner from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 11 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

TQ VERDICT: The Stoute yard have a fair record in this race and they will be trying to improve on that with the Queen’s Elector – he’s been gelded since his last run and has the form to go well but with just one win from seven he tends to get placed more than winning. The Haggas-trained AL MUFFRIH is certainly one for the shortlist with the yard winning this race in 2011, plus he’s another that’s been gelded since last season. He’s also gone well fresh before – winning first time out last season. The Andrew Balding yard are just 2 from 44 with their 4+ year-olds at the track so their Max Zorin is overlooked based on that. The only CD winner in the field is Jazeel, so that’s a big plus ahead of his chance, while Power Of Darkness ran a blinder on his return run here last month (2nd) to suggest he’ll be popular too. However, the other main pick is the Charlie Appleby runner – VINTAGER (e/w). The yard won this race last season and jockey – William Buick – has actually landed the last two runnings of this. The stable has a decent 29% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track, and Buick has a 23% record riding this age range here too. He’s been running in better races than this (Group Three) so the drop into a handicap will be a lot easier. He’ll also be a lot fitter for a recent run here, but still ran well for much of that race, only getting tired in the closing stages.

2.20 - Zoustar Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV

15/16 – Had won over 5f before
14/16 – Won 3 or more times before
13/16 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
13/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
13/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/16 – Had run at Newmarket before
12/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Aged 5 or younger
10/16 – Rated between 108 and 114
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/16 – Trained by Bryan Smart
Mabs Cross (9/2) won the race in 2018
Just one placed horse from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
7 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: Plenty of old faces on show here. We can expect bold bids from the consistent El Astronaute, plus Judicial, who was runner-up in this last season, Tarboosh and Major Jumbo – all have the form to go well here. The O’Brien runner – Sergei Prokofiev – will also be popular as this 3 year-old gets a weight allowance from all the others and seeing he’s rated one of the highest (111) in the field anyway then he’s certainly the one to beat on these terms. He’s also a proven CD winner here and a winner the last time he ran in this grade – a big player. However, he only just got home in a Listed race a Navan last time and is often not the most reliable. So, despite having to give 10lbs away to the O’Brien horse I’m going to stick with last year’s winner – MABS CROSS. This 5 year-old rounded off last season by winning the Group One Abbaye at Longchamp and rarely runs a bad race. This drop into a Group Three will be easier and he’s gone well fresh in the past so the 209 day break isn’t a big worry.

2.55 – Roaring Lion Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV

16/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/16 – Had won between 3-5 times in their career
13/16 – Won over 1m4f+ before
13/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/16 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
12/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/16 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Aged 4 years-old
9/16 – Rated 112 or higher
9/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – Had won a Group race before
7/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Having their first run of the season
6/16 – Aged 5 years-old
5/16 – Ran at Newbury last time out
4/16 – Returned 7/4 in the bettingc
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
2/16 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Trained by Andre Fabre
Defoe (1/2 fav) won this race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

TQ VERDICT: The Mark Johnston yard won this in 2010 and 2013 so will be trying to add to that with Communique and Mildenberger, but both seem to have a bit to find on these terms. The Balding yard are just 2 from 44 with their 4+ year-olds at the track so their Maid Up is given a swerve too. Red Verdon can go well with the in-for Ryan Moore riding – he won well on his return at Doncaster and should not be far away. Last year’s winner – Defoe – is another to consider and will be much better for a recent fourth at Newbury, while the same can be said for the Haggas-trained Young Rascal, who is much better than his recent fifth in that same Defoe race. But the call here is for the Gosden team and Frankie Dettori to take the prize with CORONET. This 5 year-old has been running well in better races last season and the last time he’s dropped into a Group Two – he’s won both times. He’s also a course winner, so no track issues and also won first time out last season – also in May. He should be spot-on to run and Frankie has shown this week that he’s riding as well as ever too.

3.35 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV

17/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/17 – Had won over at least 7f before
15/17 – Had won a Group race before
15/17 – Had won between 2-5 times before
13/17 – Won last time out
13/17 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
12/17 – Having their first run of the season
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
10/17 – Won by an Irish-based yard
9/17 – Irish bred
8/17 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (9 wins)
6/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Had won over a mile before
5/17 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
4/17 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (2 winners)
4/17 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
3/17 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
6 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 10/1

Other 2,000 Guineas Facts

- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017 & 2018
- Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016

TQ VERDICT: Did you know that 6 of the last 9 Guineas winners came from stalls 6 or lower? If that stat is to be repeated then Madhmoon, Emaraaty Ana, Skardu, Set Piece, Ten Sovereigns and Great Scot will be the ones to focus on. The powerful Aidan O’Brien yard will be looking for their tenth win in this race and in Magna Grecia and Ten Sovereigns they have two massive chances. The first-named won the Vertum Futurity Group One at Donny last October and looks another typical improver from these powerful connections. Ten Sovereigns is actually rated 7lbs higher than Magna Grecia and heads here 3-from-3. We last saw him taking the Group One Middle Park Stakes here last September and he sets a very high standard. The Frankie-ridden Advertise will also be a popular choice as this Martyn Meade runner looks to give the pocket Italian his fourth winner in this race. He won the Group One Phoenix Stakes last season in Ireland and was a fair second to Too Darn Hot in the Dewhurst here last October. However, the ones I’m going to side with are MADHMOON (e/w) and SKARDU (e/w) – who both tick the key draw trend. The first-named was turned over last time in a Listed race at Leopardstown, but that was over 7f and the return to a mile will suit. He’s a Group Two winner over this trip and that last outing should have him spot-on for this. Skardu caught the eye when winning here last month in the Craven Stakes so we know the track suits and he gets this mile. The Haggas camp will be looking for their first win in the race but with that Craven win coming on just his second career run then it goes without saying there will be a lot more to come. Of the rest, Royal Marine and Al Hilalee can’t be discounted coming from the powerful Godolphin yard.

 

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – British Stallion EBF Daisy Warwick Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f ITV

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/8 – Came between stalls 1-5 (inc)
6/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Aged 4 years-old
5/8 – Had won over 1m4f before
5/8 – Had won between 2-3 times before
5/8 – Unplaced favourites
2/8 – Winners from stall 2
2/8 – Had raced at Goodwood before
2/8 – Raced at Ascot last time out
1/8 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 11/2

TQ VERDICT: A couple of key trainer stats to note here – negative ones. The Andrew Balding yard, who run two here, are just 3 from 55 with their 4+ year-olds at the track – the have Wingingit and Lorelina entered. The Amanda Perrett camp also don’t have a lot to shout about here as they are only 2 from 75 with their older runners so Mazzuri is overlooked too. The Stoute camp are doing well at the moment so their Crystal Moonlight enters calculations too but does have a bit to find on the official ratings. Enbihaar represents the powerful John Gosden yard and from what we’ve seen of her shouldn’t be far away, but the call here is KLASSIQUE. This William Haggas runner is the top-rated in the field and ran well to be second in a better race than this last time in France. She stays further than this 1m4f trip and that will be made full us of too, while over this 1m4f trip she’s actually 2-from-2. Of the rest, the Michael Bell yard have a decent 33% record with this age range at the track so their PLAIT (e/w), who has won two of her three starts, might also be worth a small interest.

 

2.40 – Goodwood May Food Festival Handicap Cl2 7f ITV

Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Carried between 8-7 and 8-12
6/6 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
6/6 – Had won between 2-4 races before
4/6 – Winners that came between stalls 5-9 (inc)
4/6 – Ran at Kempton last   time out
2/6 – Aged 4 years-old
2/6 – Finished second last time out
2/6 – Ridden by Shane Kelly
2/6 – Winners from stall 5
1/6 – Winning favourites
Taurean Star (12/1) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 12/1

TQ VERDICT: Just the six runners here but with ALL six previous winners carrying 8-7 to 8-12 then this suggests we’ve only three to focus on – WHITEFOUNTAINFAIRY, APEX KING and MANTON GRANGE. All three are big prices so are worth a small interest with that key stat on their side. All six past winners were also aged between 4 and 6 years-old, but that only rules out the 7 year-old Goring. The only two CD winners in the field are Qaroun and LOVE DREAMS and of that pair the last-named runner looks the most interesting. This Mark Johnston runner is actually rated 7lbs lower than when he won over this course and distance last May and returned a few months ago with a solid second at Kempton on the AW. Of the others, recent Musselburgh scorer – Three Saints Bay – must enter the mix based on his easy 4 ½ length win last time. An 8lb rise for that makes life harder but he won with plenty in-hand to suggest he can go close to defying the burden.

 

NEWMARKET: 1,000 Guineas Trends For Sunday’s Classic………

3.35 – Qipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV

15/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/17 – Had won between 2-3 times before
12/17 – Had won a Group race before
11/17 – Won their previous race
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)
9/17 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price
8/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/17 – Favourites unplaced
7/17 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
7/17 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
6/17 – Irish-trained winners
5/17 – Previous Group One winners
5/17 – Went onto win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot
4/17 – Won by a US bred horse
4/17 – Won by the favourite
3/17 – French-trained winners
3/17 – Went onto finish fourth in the Epsom Oaks
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/17 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Kazzia 2002, Minding 2016)
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
8 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 13/1

1,000 Guineas Facts

Owner Hamdam Al Maktoum has won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the ridden the winner 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 3 times (2012, 2015, 2016)
Godolphin have won the race 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Aidan O’Brien has trained four winners, Virginia Waters (1995), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016) & Winter (2017)

TQ VERDICT: Another top renewal of the fillies Classic and it’s no surprise to see the Irish having a strong hand again. The Aidan O’Brien yard don’t have quite the same record as they do in the 2,000 Guineas, but still have four wins in this race. They’ve got Just Wonderful, Hermosa, Fleeting and Fairyland entered and of that bunch I think Fairyland just edges it. She’s one of the more experienced in the field with five career runs and even though they’ve all come over 6f – including the Cheveley Park Stakes here last September - the step up in trip looks sure to suit. Aidan’s son – Joseph – has a good chance too with IRIDESSA (e/w). She was a cracking third at Leopardstown in their 1000 Guineas Trial but was a top winner of the Fillies’ Mile here over this course and distance last October and that proven course form over this trip will be a huge asset. She’s taken to go well and reverse the form with Lady Kaya, who won that recent Leopardstown race. Skitter Scatter from the shrewd John Ox yard is a player too and comes here off the back of three straight wins, while there has been a lot of support in the week for Dandhu, who landed the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury last time. However, the main danger to the selection looks to be with the Roger Varian-trained Qabala – she’ll be hoping to give the yard their first win in the race. This 3 year-old was a well-backed winner of the Nell Gwyn Stakes here last time over 7f and should be well-suited by the step up to a mile. The course is fine and she travelled really well that day to beat Mot Juste, who lines-up again here too. However, the value seems to have gone a tad so unless you are on at the bigger prices there doesn’t seem much point wading in at the lower odds.

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team

 

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