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20th October 2020

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 6th July 2019

 

  • SANDOWN: Enable To Eclipse Rivals………
  • HAYDOCK: Lancashire Oaks & Old Newton Cup Day………
  • TRAINERS-QUOTES: TQ VIEW Continues To Reward…………

Hi,

Some top winners with the free tips last Saturday – we hope you were on!

Limto (1st 11/4), Summer Romance (1st 5/6) and Staxton (1st 15/2) were nice winners, but the icing on the cake was Gulliver (1st 20/1) going in a cracking double-figure price.

We’ll be hoping for more of the same this Saturday, as it’s Coral Eclipse Stakes day at Sandown.

All eyes will be on the John Gosden-trained Enable as she makes her return to the track. She’s amassed a staggering £8million in total prize money already, but should be adding another £400k to that haul this afternoon – we look at the race in more detail below.

Then at Haydock, the ITV cameras are there for three races that include the Old Newton Cup and the Lancashire Oaksdid you know, 11 of the last 17 Old Newton Cup winners were aged 4 years-old?

As always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE ITV races.

Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes: More TQ View Success For Members…………………..

It’s been another cracking week at TQ – Well done to the Gary Moore yard with a top double last Saturday, while the Charlie Fellowes camp sent out their improving stayer – Carnwennan – to win the Northumberland Plate consolation race at Newcastle.

Did you know that since moving stables earlier this season, the Charlie Fellowes stable have fired in 12 winners from 54 runners (22%) – not bad, hey??

The TQ View picks also remain in top form this week as Dovils Date (6/4) and West Coast Flyer (15/8) go in for members - that means followers of these picks alone are sitting on a cool +61pts since the 1st of May!!

That’s right - as you can see below, that win took the TQ VIEW p/l total to +61pts (from 1st May – 3rd July) – not a bad return!

Even at just £20 stakes that’s a cool £1,220 in your pocket!

 

Here’s just a sample of some top quotes recently……………….

“West Coast Flyer runs in a novice hurdle over 2m – this is a qualifier for the fixed brush final back here in September though so certainly worth aiming at. He was impressive when winning last time out at Ffos Las on his second run over hurdles after a satisfactory debut the previous month. Yes, he was a bit too keen first time out in a slowly run race but the strong pace last time suited him better – he’s a horse that will get further and there’s no reason why he couldn’t make his own running now if there was no gallop. We look to have the Curtis, Newland and O’Brien horses to beat but we are the top-rated in the field and based on that are probably the one to beat. Should go close.”

1ST 15/8 OLIVER SHERWOOD

 

“Dovils Date – In great form at the moment and head here on a three-timer after good wins at Uttoxeter and Southwell. Escapes a penalty for that last win and jockey Charlie Price continues in the saddle (claims 7lbs). Step up in trip will be fine and will love the ground. Goes up 13lbs from Saturday so have to run him really – but has also come out of that last race well and should go close again.”

1ST 6/4 TIM VAUGHAN

 

“Rum Baba – Showed his true colours last time out and should improve for that race. The drop to a mile will suit and he should like the track. The Gosden horse to beat, but should still have a leading chance.”

1ST 6/5 CHARLIE FELLOWES

 

“Miss Gargar – Improved last time out, despite running 6th of 8 – wasn’t beaten too far. We are 3lbs lower here and also trying the first-time visor as we feel that will sharpen her up. Has also run well here at Wolves in the past so if the headgear can bring out a bit more then we think we’ve got an each-way chance here.”

3RD 20/1 HARRY DUNLOP

 

“El Borracho – Been running well without things quite going his way last 3 starts. Small field reduces some of the risk but he needs an even gallop to have his best chance. Rider knows him well so should run another sound race.”

1ST 14/1 SIMON DOW

 

“Whistler Bowl – Went to Brighton recently but failed to go in the stalls – has passed a stalls test since and has done some good work at home too. First run in a handicap here today will help and if getting in the stalls and away would have a small squeak. 1 1/2 stars.”

1ST 16/1 GARY MOORE

 

“Gold Club – Ignore his last run as he found the Wolverhampton surface too deep and hated it. Has plenty of ability and dropping to a nice mark. Draw 17 is perfect – he likes to get on with things, so hoping to get out and the rail and play catch me if you can tactics. Looks a good each-way price to me, with Georgia value for her 7lb claim too.”

2ND 16/1 LEE CARTER

 

“Clara Peeters – Needs to bounce back from a below-par run last time – but the race might have been a bit too quick for her after running well at Goodwood the time before. Might have liked a bit more cut in the ground too but a nice prize so worth a crack – so small place claims. 1 1/2 stars.”

1ST 15/2 GARY MOORE

 

“Carnwennan – Is a lovely stayer, that is still improving. Conditions today should suit him perfectly and I am looking forward to a big run.”

1ST 7/2 CHARLIE FELLOWES

 

“Midnight Folie – Going great guns at the moment – won well again on Tuesday at Newton Abbot and now reverting to hurdles on a 7lb lower mark. Ben gets on well with the horse and claims 7lbs again too. Slight niggle that he’s had a lot of racing in recent weeks, but has taken his racing well in the past so that’s a good sign and must head here with every chance of going in again.”

1ST 10/11 TIM VAUGHAN

You can see the best of our recent quotes here

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 9 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!

Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

YOUR direct line through to the UK’s TOP Trainers – EVERY time they have a horse running…

Be a fly-on-the-wall at the UK’s TOP yards…

Continue to peek behind the stable door to see how the horses are REALLY performing at home… And what the Trainers REALLY think about their chances…?

Get involved and tap into top daily info from 19 leading yards, below - Just drop us a line here and we can discuss any offers we’ve got on at the moment.

 

You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

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SANDOWN: Enable to Eclipse Rivals……………………

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

13.50 - Coral Charge (Registered as The Sprint Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 5f6y ITV

17/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
16/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Favourites placed
13/17 – Had won at least 3 times before
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Had won at Sandown before
5/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/17 – Won last time out
8 of the last 13 winners were Irish bred
11 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)

TQ VERDICT: The speedy Caspian Prince is still going strong at the age of 10, but it won’t be easy for him to give weight away to some useful 3 year-olds. The same applies to the 9 year-old Muthmir and with 12 of the last 17 winners aged 3 or 4 then I’m going to focus on the younger brigade. The only CD winner in the field – Kurious – beat another of today’s runners, The Cruising Lord, here last month and can confirm that form at a track that his form figures read well – 1-2-1. Garrus will be popular too after two good wins, but draw 9 doesn’t look ideal, especially as 11 of the last 13 winners of this race have come from stalls 1-4. Those that fit the bill on that draw stat are – Rumble Inthejungle, Sergei Prokofiev, The Cruising Lord and Pocket Dynamo. Of that bunch the 110-rated Sergei Prokofiev will be popular from the Aidan O’Brien yard now dropped back into a Group Three, but did you know O’Brien is currently 0-from-15 with his Sandown runners? Therefore, it might be worth taking a chance on RUMBLE IN THEJUNGLE (e/w) and POCKET DYNAMO (e/w). The first-named will have Frankie riding and will be much sharper for a recent run at Ascot – his first for 265 days. The drop back to 5f will suit too and draw 1 looks ideal. Pocket Dynamo was last seen running fourth in the Temple Stakes but is a horse that will love the quick ground and rarely runs a bad race. He went close (2nd) in the Norfolk Stakes at Ascot in 2018 and that sort of form would make him of interest. Andrea Atzeni is also an interesting jockey booking.

14.25 – Coral Challenge (Handicap) Cl2 1m14y ITV

16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
15/17 – Carried 8-8 or more
15/17 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
15/17 – Previous winners over 1m (or further)
13/17 – Didn’t win their previous race
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Aged 4 years-old
10/17 – Had run at Sandown before
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/17 – Ran at either York (2) or Ascot (4) last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
10 of the last 13 winners came from stall 8 or lower

TQ VERDICT: With 16 of the last 17 winners aged 6 or younger then this is bad news for Breden and Greenside, while with 15 of the last 17 winners carrying 8-8 or more this rules out the bottom weight Rum Runner. The main pick here is the Sir Michael Stoute runner – QAROUN (e/w). Ryan Moore is, of course, a big plus in the saddle, but with the yard having a stonking 43% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track, this is a huge plus. Draw 2 looks fine and he acts well on a quick surface. Yes, he’s yet to win this season, but has put in four solid runs to be placed each time. Of the rest, CD winners – History Writer and Via Serendipity can go well, but the other of interest is LUSH LIFE (e/w). This 4 year-old didn’t seem to handle the AW track up at Newcastle last time so can be forgiven that run. However, prior to that was a good winner over this course and distance. She’s only 3lbs higher and Jamie Spencer remains in the saddle. Mojito, with Frankie riding is another to note, but returns from 637 days off, while the top-rated Key Victory and the generally consistent Salute The Solider are others to respect.

 

15.00 – Coral Distaff (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m14y ITV

16/16 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
15/16 – Had never run at Sandown before
14/16 – Had won over 7f or further before
13/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
9/16 – Favourites that finished in the top three
4/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The last 13 winners came from stalls 3-9 (inc)
9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 3,4,5 or 6

TQ VERDICT: With 9 of the last 13 winners coming from stalls 3,4,5 or 6 then MUCHLY, MAIN EDITION, DESIROUS and BEYOND REASON look to have a lot going for them. Of that bunch, it’s interesting that Ryan Moore, who has a good record in this race, has been booked to ride the Mark Johnston-trained MAIN EDITION (e/w). She won the German 1,000 Guineas two runs back and although running down the field in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot, this drop into a Listed race will be a lot easier. She’s the joint top-rated in the field and despite having to give 5lbs away to the others still looks the one to beat. The other top-rated is Beyond Reason, but this Godolphin runner returns from a 267 day break and so I’d rather side with the race fit Johnston runner. Encapsulation in an interesting Irish recruit for the Andrew Balding yard, that has the form to go well and, of course, Frankie and Gosden teaming-up with Muchly will attract interest. However, of the bigger-priced runners it might pay to give DESIROUS (e/w) another chance. She ran okay to be 7th in the Sandringham at Ascot last time, but was well-backed that day (sent off fav). She was only beaten 4 lengths in the end, but the Sandown track might suit her better and prior to that was a decent winner at Goodwood – the second has since franked the form.

 

15.35 – Coral-Eclipse (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f7y ITV

Eclipse Stakes Betting Trends

17/17 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
14/17 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
13/17 – Won by a previous Group One winner
13/17 – Placed favourites
12/17 – Raced between 2 and 3 times that season
12/17 – Placed in their last race
11/17 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out (three won there)
8/17 – Favourites that won
5/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
5/17 – Raced in the Epsom Derby that season
4/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4 of the last 12 winners won last time out
2 of the last 10 Derby winners of that season went onto win the race
The last 6 year-old to win the race was in 1886
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 9/2

12 of out the last 14 winners had run in the previous 30 days
10 out of the last 14 winners were Group 1 winners
13 of the last 14 winners came from the first four in the betting
12 out of the last 14 winners had won over 1m 2f or further

Other Eclipse Stakes Trainer Facts

Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2011, 2008, 2005, 2002 & 2000
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2007, 2001, 1997, 1994, 1993 & 2017
Godolphin-owned horses have won the race in 2004, 1998, 1996, 1995 & 2016
Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 7 runnings

TQ VERDICT: Another high-class renewal of this Group One – plenty to look forward to. CD winner Regal Reality will be looking to give trainer Sir Michael Stoute his seventh win in the race and he can’t be ruled out after winning the Brigadier Gerard Stakes here back in May. This will be tougher, but he did it well that day. But he’s also got to give 3lbs away to the superstar mare – ENABLE – and that makes life even tougher. The Gosden runner has won her last nine races, including the Arc and Breeders’ Cup turf, and has shown that running off a break is fine in the past too. The drop back to 1m2f might be the thing those looking to take her on will cling to, as her only try over this trip saw her beaten! However, the stiff Sandown finish will help on that score and we can expect Frankie to be fully aware of that and make full use of her proven stamina. Telecaster didn’t get home in the Derby and also ran too free so the drop back to 1m2f will make the Dante Stakes winner interesting. But the main danger to Enable looks to be from Magical. This O’Brien runner never runs a bad race and was a gallant second in the Prince Of Wales’ Stakes last time out – she’s sure to go well and is only rated 2lbs off of Enable, so really there shouldn’t be a lot between them – just like in the Breeders’ Cup last November, when only ¾ of a length separated them. Of the bigger-priced runners though – the other Stoute runner – MUSTASHRY (e/w) – might be worth a small e/w interest. He won the Lockinge in good style back in May but didn’t quite have the pace in the Queen Anne Stakes last time out (7th). He was running on well that day though, so the step up to 1m2f looks a plus and he’s also a proven CD winner here at Sandown. He’s rated 121, which is the third-highest in the race -

 

HAYDOCK: Three LIVE Races From The Lancashire Venue…….

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

14.05 - bet365 Handicap Cl3 1m2f95y ITV

2 previous runnings
Mark Johnston trained the winner in 2018
John Gosden trained the winner in 2017

TQ VERDICT: Arctic Fox will catch punter’s eyes with a string of wins next to her name. But she’s up another 4lbs here and the longer trip is also a slight unknown. Prefontaine has been running well for the Roger Varian yard and should go well too, but with four of the 7 runners, then this race has become the Mark Johnston show! All four look to have a say too and with the yard having won this race 12 months ago, then clearly want to keep the prize at home again. Of the Johnston runners, the jockey bookings would suggest the Franny Norton-ridden Sir Ron Priestley is their main player. This course winner has won two of his last three, but was down the field last time at Royal Ascot. The longer trip will help, but I’d rather side with the in-form MIND THE CRACK, who has won his last two. This 3 year-old looks the sort to relish the longer trip and jockey Richard Kingscote has a 19% record riding here at Haydock. With just 5 career runs there should be more to come too and he also won’t mind the quicker ground. Johnston’s other two runners are Summer Moon and Themaxwecan.

14.40 – bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m3f200y ITV

14/17 – Had won at least at Listed class before
14/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/17 – Priced 13/2 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Had won between 1-3 times before
10/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
9/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Had won over 1m4f before
6/17 – Trained by John Gosden
5/17 – Had raced at Haydock before
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Raced at Ascot last time out
2/17 – Trained by David Elsworth
2/17 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
The last 6 runnings have been won by a 4 year-old
Horseplay won the race 12 months ago (11/4)

Note: The 2007 renewal was staged at Newmarket

TQ VERDICT: The only CD winner in the field – Klassique – can go well for the Haggas yard. She’s finished in the top two in her last seven races and was a top winner of the Pinnacle Stakes here last month, albeit in heavy ground. Haggas also has Dramatic Queen in the race and she won well at York last time to suggest she’s a big player too. But that came over 1m6f so I’m not sure the drop back in trip will suit as much. She only beat another of today’s runners – ENIBHAAR– by ½ a length that day, but the drop back to 1m4f should help this 4 year-old more and she beat Klassique by 1 ¾ lengths the time before that too. Gosden also runs Highgarden in the race, so it’s a bit of a showdown between the Haggas and Gosden yards. She was a good third on her return last time out and certainly can’t be ruled out in the first-time cheekpieces. Nayaleti and Shailene will be trying to spoil the party for the Gosden and Haggas yards.

 

 

15.15 – bet365 Old Newton Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m3f200y ITV

Key Old Newton Cup Betting Trends

15/17 – Had won a race over 1m4f before
14/17 – Aged 5 or younger
13/17 – Won no more than 5 times before
13/17 – Officially rated between 89 and 97
12/17 – Carried 9-1 or less
12/17 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
11/17 – Aged 4 years-old
11/17 – Had won at least 3 times before
11/17 – Favourites placed in the top 4
10/17 – Irish or USA bred
9/17 – Raced within the last 7 days
9/17 – Carried 8-11 or less
7/17 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the betting
6/17 – Placed horses (top three) from stall 4
6/17 – Had won a race at Haydock before
5/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/17 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 12/1

TQ VERDICT: With 14 of the last 17 winners aged 5 or younger this rules out Byron Flyer (8), Restorer (7) & Eddystone Rock (7) for me. Plus, with 12 of the last 17 winners coming from stalls 13 or lower this is not a good stat for the likely favourites – First Eleven – who is drawn 17, and Al Muffrih, drawn 19. Of course, both were recent good winners and it’s easy to see why they’ve both been supported in the build-up to the race, but might also not be much value. The bulk of the recent winners have been rated between 89 and 97, so if this is to be repeated again then horses from 10-19 are the ones to focus on. Of that bunch – MELTING DEW, KOEMAN, INDIANAPOLIS, SOCIETY ROCK, EVERYTHING FOR YOU & INFRASTRUCTURE also tick the key age and draw trends too. Of these six the two that catch the eye are MELTING DEW (e/w) and KOEMAN (e/w). The first-named is from the powerful Stoute yard, and even though he’s not been firing this season, as a result has dropped to a decent mark (97) – his best recent run came off this rating. Koeman has been running well, and was a good second at Kempton last time out. The form of his close third to Baghdad in May was franked with the winner going in at Ascot last month and despite creeping up the handicap is a consistent horse that should have more to come. Finally, it’s a race the Mark Johnston yard like to do well in, so their entries – Charles Kingsley & Aquarium – can’t be discounted either.

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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