Newbury: Altior Makes His Return………
Warwick: Three Races LIVE on ITV…….
Trainers Quotes: Moore Continues In Red-Hot Form
Hi, well that was nice last week! Several nice winners to pay for the weekend expenses, including FULL JACK that went in at 10/1 up at Musselburgh.
We also saw Terrefort (1st 15/8) land the money while it was jockey Daryl Jacob’s fourth win in a row in the contest. Holly Bush Henry (2nd 6/1) and Melrose Boy (3rd 7/1) were decent each-way returns.
We are not going to claim any credit for picking out Buveur D’Air at 1/16, but it was another polished display from the current Champion Hurdle favourite. With his nearest rival in the betting – Faugheen – only managing second in the Irish Champion Hurdle last Saturday, then Henderson’s 7 year-old is now as short as 1/2 to retain his title at the Festival next month.
Sticking with Ireland, it was a cracking few days at the Dublin Racing Festival last weekend and this meeting set to only get bigger and bigger. Some of the guys here at TQ went, and they reported back as saying – it was fantastic and will certainly be going again next year!
Footpad was one of the highlights and is now around 11/10 for the Arkle – he jumped superbly and it looks one of the Festival bankers. Min was another big winner and is now into 3/1 for the Champion Chase, while the horse being dubbed the ‘new machine’ – Samcro – won again and is now as short as 15/8 for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. Plenty to get excited about!
However, for us SUPASUNDAE was the horse to take out of last weekend. He stayed on really well to get the better of Faugheen in the Irish Champion Hurdle over a trip that is his optimum. Connections have said that he’ll be stepped back up to 3m at the Festival and will be aimed at the Stayers’ Hurdle. Don’t forget, he’s already got Festival winning form after landing the Coral Cup 12 months ago and with this division wide-open this year he looks worth a punt now at around 7/2. We think he’ll be a lot shorter in the day! Don’t forget to back him with a ‘non-runner, no’ bet bookie!
Onto This Week – another big weekend in prospect with the LIVE ITV Racing coming from Newbury and Warwick - we’ve seven races to take in across the two venues. At Newbury all eyes will be on the return of Altior as he lines-up in the Betfair Exchange Chase (Game Spirit). He’s currently the 11/8 favourite for the Champion Chase, but we can expect that market to have a lot of activity after this – one-way, or another!
We also see the return of Native River, who bids to win the Denman Chase for a second year in a row – he took this race 12 months ago before running third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
The Betfair Hurdle – the richest handicap hurdle in Britain – is also on the Newbury card – a race trainer Nicky Henderson will be looking to land for a sixth time and he’s firing several runners at the big prize.
Then up at Warwick, the Grade Two Kingmaker Chase looks an interesting renewal, while Rons Dream will be trying to land the olbg.com Mares’ Hurdle for a second year.
So, bundles to get stuck into and we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you and as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!
Have a Great Weekend!
This Week AT Trainers-Quotes………Moore Strikes With 9/2 TQ VIEW Winner…..
With a 28% strike-rate (at the time of writing) the Gary Moore camp certainly have their horses in fine order at the moment and that can only be good news for TQ members. Anything they run over the weekend should not be overlooked!
They rewarded TQ followers again in midweek as their STOICAL PATIENT landed the money at 9/2 at Market Rasen after Gary telling members “what she may now find is it’s the handicapper she’s got to beat”. Even better as the horse drifted out from 3/1 to 9/2 moments before the race – meaning even more winnings for us!!
Here’s what Gary members the morning of the race…………………………
“STOICAL PATIENT has won her first three starts for us until crashing out on her last start. STOICAL PATIENT has climbed massively in the weights but was running ok when she fell last time out. So, after a break, I hope she is good enough to take this but what she may now find it’s the handicapper she has to beat.”
1st 9/2 GARY MOORE 6th Feb 2018 (TQ VIEW)
Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!
Great Scott! While, the Scott Dixon yard have also been rewarding members this week…………..
“Coiste Bodhar – Finished well over 5f last time out, so the step up to 6f will suit. Well at home and looks decent each-way value in my eyes on a surface we know the horse loves.” 1st 8/1 SCOTT DIXON 6th Feb 2018
We also saw several other bits of top info……………..like this 4 star-rated each-way call from Mick Appleby.
“Tha’ir – Won well here last time over course and distance. Has come out of that race well and despite being 3lbs higher here still looks well-handicapped on old form – was rated in the 100’s when with Godolphin. More needed up in grade, but a top draw in 1, plus being a higher grade we actually get in here with 9-1 (carried 9-9 last time). Very competitive, but the horse is very well and we are hoping now he’s found the winning thread he’ll have the confidence to progress again. Decent each-way claims if all 8 stand their ground.” 2nd 12/1 MICK APPLEBY 7th Feb 2018
Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!
Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!
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Newbury: Altior and Native River Return………
Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RUK)
1.50 - Betfair Cash Out Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m52y ITV
12/13 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
11/13 – Had run within the last 9 weeks
10/13 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
9/13 – Aged 7 or younger
9/13 – Carried 10-13 or more
9/13 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
8/13 – Unplaced last time out
8/13 – Carried 11-1 or more
7/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – Aged 7 years-old
6/13 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/13 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (no winners)
3/13 – French bred
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Raced at Haydock last time out
TQ VERDICT: This has been a kind race to the Nick Henderson yard over the years – with two wins in the last 13 – but, having said that, none of those victories were in the last 9 runnings. At this stage the Seven Barrows camp have entered LOUGH DERG FARMER (e/w) with Nico de Boinville riding. He clearly didn’t take to fences last time out on his chase debut, when jumping all over the place at Ascot. Connections pitch him back over hurdles here and having won 2 of his 4 starts over the smaller obstacles should be more at home here. The yard has also given him 77 days to get over that last run and looks on a fair mark for this handicap hurdles debut. 9 of the last 13 winners were aged 7 or younger, so if this trend is to be upheld then a fair few will be knocked out. We could also see the return of Barters Hill here. This useful hurdler had a lot of shrewd judges saying he’d have a big future but he’s had a few injury setbacks since running fourth in the 2016 Albert Bartlett so it remains to be seen if he’s retained any of his ability. On a plus, he’s still only 8 years-old and is two-from-two at Newbury so clearly likes the track. King Uther is another that shouldn’t be overlooked. This Chris Gordon-trained runner was a good winner was a nice winner at Warwick last time out and despite being raised 9lbs for that, due to the rise in grade still gets in here with only 10-4 to carry and that would make him dangerous. Book of Gold is another with a light-weight, but although he often runs well he’s still to get his head in front (6 starts) and this looks as competitive a race as he’s contested.
2.25 - Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV
12/14 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
12/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
12/14 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Rated 150+
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Aged 8 or younger
10/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (3 winners)
8/14 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
8/14 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
6/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
5/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – French bred
5/14 – Irish bred
3/14 – Returned a double-figure price
3/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/14 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman & Kauto Star)
2/14 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/14 – Won by the Pipe stable
6 of the last 11 winners were aged 7 years-old
The average SP in the last 11 runnings is 10/3
Note: 2009 running was staged at Kempton
TQ VERDICT: A small but select field line-up for this year’s renewal of the Denman, but still a fascinating affair in prospect. Cloudy Dream rarely runs a bad race and is yet to finish out of the first two over fences from 10 starts. His second behind Definitly Red at Aintree back in December has been franked with that horse going on to win the Cotswold Chase last month. He will head here fresh after a few months off and would be a popular winner with his former trainer – Malcom Jefferson – sadly passing away earlier this month. Yes, he sets a fair standard, but does seem to have a habit of finding one too good and that’s likely to be the case again here. The Paul Nicholls-trained Saphir Du Rheu was last seen running in the Grand National, but fell at the 11th that day. Prior to that he was a fine fifth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup – beaten just 6 ¼ lengths – so if returning after 308 days anywhere near that form would also make him very dangerous. He’s gone well fresh in the past, but his form figures here at Newbury are not the most inspiring 3-4-UR-5-F and based on that he’s overlooked on his return. The call is for last year’s winner – NATIVE RIVER – to return with a bang. Still only 8 years-old this Colin Tizzard-trained chaser took this 12 months ago and looks set to go well again. He was last seen running third in the Gold Cup, so on that form has an edge on Saphir Du Rheu. The vibes coming out of the Tizzard yard is that he’s fit and ready to run and if another tilt at the Gold Cup is on the cards then he’ll have to run well here. His most-recent form figures at Newbury also read well ……..1-1-1! Cloudy Dream would be the danger for me.
3.00 – Betfair Exchange Chase (Registered as The Game Spirit Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV
13/13 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Placed favourites
12/13 – Aged 8 or younger
11/13 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (2 winners)
11/13 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
10/13 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
10/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Winning favourites
6/13 – French bred
6/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/13 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (4 winners)
4/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/13 – Ran at Sandown last time out
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/13 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/13 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
TQ VERDICT: All eyes here will be on last year’s Arkle Chase winner – ALTIOR– as Nicky Henderson’s 8 years-old makes his belated return to the track. Having been off since landing the Celebration Chase at Sandown back in April racing fans will be keen to see if he returns to that same level of form. He’s also had wind surgery during that time off and if all goes well here then the Champion Chase, where he’s generally around the 11/8 - A decent winning run here and that 11/8 will vanish without trace. He’s rated 170, but actually doesn’t have loads in-hand, with last year’s Champion Chase runner-up, Fox Norton, rated 168 and this season’s Tingle Creek winner – Politologue – on a mark of 165. Fox Norton was trounced 13 lengths by Altior in this race 12 months ago and really if the Henderson star chaser returns to that level it’s hard to see Fox Norton revering that form. Norton is also on a bit of a recovery mission with connections tampering with his trip in recent races and running him in the King George last time. He clearly didn’t stay that 3m distance there, so the return to 2m is a plus, but he’s also got a bit to find with Politologue, based on finishing ½ a length second to him in the Tingle Creek. Yes, many feel he was getting there in the closing stages in that Sandown race so the slightly longer trip and the long Newbury straight will probably suit him more than the Nicholls runner. Of the rest, Valdez makes up the numbers.
3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV
15/15 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight
14/15 – Aged 7 or younger
13/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/15 – Rated 130 or higher
12/15 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
12/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/15 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
12/15 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
12/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
12/15 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
10/15 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
10/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
6/15 – Aged 5 years-old (including 6 of last 9)
5/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/15 – Trained by Gary Moore
2/15 - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/15 – Owned by JP McManus
1/15 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
20 of the last 21 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 14.5/1
TQ VERDICT: Trainer Nicky Henderson has won Britain’s richest handicap hurdle five times so is goes without saying anything the Seven Barrows camp run should be noted. At this stage they’ve several entries – including Verdana Blue, Charli Parcs, Lough Derg Spirit and Kayf Grace – all are capable of running well in this on their best form and it’s interesting Henderson is throwing a lot of arrows at this prize. However, their hat-trick seeking Jenkins could be the one punters latch onto again. This 6 year-old had a tall reputation last season, but failed to really see that through, so this was always going to be a big season for the horse. After a few poor runs at the end of last year it looks like he’s finally getting the hang of things with decent wins at Kempton and Ascot recently. The talented James Bowen took over in the saddle last time and his 3lb claim is a big help. He’s up 5lbs for that last win - which seems fair - and being a past course and distance winner he ticks a lot of boxes. However, he does have 11-12 to carry here and ALL of the last 15 winners of this race have had 11-7 or less on their backs! He also looked to have quite a hard slog last time out so it remains to be seen if that’s left its mark. 14 of the last 15 winners were aged 7 or younger too, so this is another key trend to have on your side, while a 5 year-old has won 6 of the last 9 renewals. With that in mind, the 5 year-old KALASHNIKOV (e/w) is sure to be popular and with 11-5 to carry ticks the main weight trend too. He’s lightly-raced with only four career starts and is actually yet to finish out of the first two. Yes, the horse could do with slightly better ground, but should be ok on it. A recent second in the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown was a solid effort in heavy ground and with 5-6 weeks to get over that should be ready to rumble again. The Gary Moore camp have won 3 of the last 10 runnings so their Knocknanuss shouldn’t be underestimated. Yes, at 8 years-old he falls down by a year on the main age stat, but it’s worth noting he’s very lightly-raced for a horse of that age (just 6 career runs). He heads here off the back of an easy 8 length Fontwell win, but is 11lbs higher this time – one for the shortlist. 6 year-olds Lalor and Spiritofthegames are others that catch the eye, as do Silver Streak and the talented mare Irish Roe. The last-named ran the classy Maria’s Benefit close last time at Doncaster and that could turn out to be decent form. Willie Mullins sends Bleu Et Rouge over too and with Barry Geraghty pick to ride this one over the other JP McManus-owned runners in the field – Charli Parcs and Project Bluebook – then it’s hard to ignore this 7 year-old either. Finally, I also feel that the Nicholls-trained DIVIN BERE (e/w) looks too big a price. Okay, this 5 year-old ran a stinker last time out at Ascot, but it was his first run back for 8 ½ months! Sam Twiston-Davies takes over in the saddle, but let’s not forget this horse was a close second in the Fred Winter at the Festival last March, while he ran an in-form Defi Du Seuil close at Aintree soon after. Better ground would have been more ideal too, but I still think he'll run better than last time. He’s been placed in the first two in 6 of his 7 hurdles starts, and despite there being a few ‘big ifs’ it might be dangerous to totally ignore him after just one bad run. Paul Nicholls also took this in 2012 with Zarkandar.
Warwick: The ITV Cameras Take In Three Races……
Warwick Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RUK)
2.05 - olbg.com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV
Just 4 previous running
4/4 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
4/4 – Didn’t win last time out
4/4 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
4/4 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
4/4 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
4/4 – Carried between 11-0 and 11-5
3/4 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
3/4 – Rated between 141 and 149
3/4 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
2/4 – Winning favourites
2/4 – Irish bred
2/4 – Had run at Warwick before
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 3/1
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
TQ VERDICT: Willie Mullins has brought runners over in recent years to take this race, but is giving everyone else a chance this year! Only four previous runnings to go on so the trends also still need time to build-up. MIDNIGHT JAZZ is a past course winner and is certainly going to be popular after her recent second to Poppy Kay, who also holds an entry here. The pair pulled well clear of the rest of the field that day, but with a 4lb pull this time with Poppy Kay we can expect this Ben Case-trained runner to reverse that form – there was only ½ a length between them last time. The Case camp could also run Graceful Legend, who is not without a chance based on a couple of good recent thirds. Alan King’s Midnight Tour sets the standard based on the official racings (146). She’s the highest-rated in the field – being 9lbs higher than her nearest rival. She was only 4 ½ lengths behind the classy La Bague Au Roi two runs back at Kempton, but those against her will cling to the fact she ran a stinker last time out – also at Kempton. She didn’t jump the best that day and also had a conditional jockey riding so does have a few excuses. The yard have given her around 6 weeks to get over that too and based on what we know she can achieve then she’d be foolish to rule out. However, we’ll stick with Midnight Jazz here, who showed a decent attitude last time out. She’s also a proven course winner and after two runs this season should be coming to the boil.
2.40 – Betway Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV
8/8 – Aged 7 or younger
7/8 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
7/8 – Won over 2m fences before
6/8 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
6/8 – Rated between 137-147
6/8 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
4/8 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
4/8 – Won last time out
3/8 – Unplaced favs
3/8 – Winning favourites
The last 4 winners have been 6 year-olds
Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown
TQ VERDICT: The Dan Skelton-trained North Hill Harvey sets a decent standard here with a rating of 152. This 7 year-old has won two of his three chase starts, but does need to bounce back from being well beaten last time at Sandown behind Sceau Royal. On a plus, the softer ground will suit and he did have a busy time of it at the end of 2017. Connections have freshened him up with 2 months off and having gone well off a break in the past then he’s a big player here. Drumcliff heads here on a three-timer after wins at Wincanton and Ascot so shouldn’t be underestimated. This is another step up though, but is certainly a horse in rude health at the moment. Diego Du Charmil hails from the powerful Paul Nicholls yard and should run his race. He won well two starts ago to win at Newton Abbot, but would need a bit more based on his 17 length third behind Shantou Rock last time out. However, the horse that seems to have most in his favour is the Harry Whittingham-trained SAINT CALVADOS. This 5 year-old went into many a notebook after easy chase wins at Newbury and remains unbeaten over fences. He beat Tree Of Liberty by an easy 10 lengths last time and jumped really well that day too. He’s rated 154, but being a 5 year-old gets 7lbs from North Hill Harvey (rated 152), so looks to have a bit in-hand. There could also be more to come based on his age, while any further ease in the ground wouldn’t be an issue.
3.15 – All Cheltenham Live On RacingUK Warwick Castle Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4f ITV
8/8 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/8 – Irish (3) or French (5) bred
7/8 – Aged 9 or younger
7/8 – Favourites that finished in the top three
7/8 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
6/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
6/8 – Unplaced in their last race
6/8 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
5/8 – Carried 11-0 or more
3/8 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Templehills (9/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 5/1
TQ VERDICT: The Gary Moore team have their horses in fine fettle and also boast a decent 28% strike-rate with their runners at Warwick. Therefore, their Casse Tete can’t be discounted. This 6 year-old has only had two runs this season and should be a lot better for a recent 7th (of 14) at Cheltenham behind Froden in a competitive Grade Three. He’s down 4lbs for that and with only 10-8 to carry does have a dangerous-looking weight – certainly one for the shortlist. Thomas Crapper returns after 297 days off, but is also 6lbs higher than his last win. You feel this is also a stepping stone for another tilt at a Festival race – don’t forget, he was a decent fourth in the Brown Advisory Chase last season. Kylemore Lough is another to note and will find this a lot easier than when running third in the Clarence House Chase last time. His mark of 151 looks dangerous too and is also a proven course winner. The only negative would be that he’s not won now for almost 2 years. Dan Skelton’s Value At Risk, who won well at Doncaster last time out is another big player. That win was over hurdles and off a mark of 140, so his chase rating of 132 looks very lenient. He’s only won once from 6 starts over fences – and been unplaced in the rest of those, so the jury would still be out as to whether he’s a better hurdler, than a chaser – we’ll see! So, the safer call here might be to side with a proven winner of the race – TEMPLEHILLS (e/w). This 7 year-old took this prize by 7 lengths 12 months ago and off a mark just 5lbs higher then he looks to have a great chance of going close again. He likes to race up with the pace so is expected to shorten in-running, while he made all to win this pot last year – hopefully it will be more of the same here. The Nigel Twiston-Davies team are also showing signs of a return to form, after a quiet spell, while jockey Dave Crosse, who has ridden this horse in his last four races – including in this race last year - continues in the saddle. Of those at a bigger price the Venetia Williams-trained Pressurize can go well. This drop back in grade will suit and the horse actually beat the selection at Chepstow two starts back.
THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!
Have a GREAT Weekend