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19th May 2021

Warwick Free Tips and Trends: Mon 15th Feb 2021

Warwick  were meant to stage this Kingmaker Novice Chase card on Saturday 13th Feb 2021, but due to a frozen track were forced to cancel the fixture.

However, the better news is that Warwick will be hoping to reschedule the full fixture for Monday 15th February (weather permitting), with their main race the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at TQ with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

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WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV)

 

2.50 – Agetur UK Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m RTV

9/9 – Aged 7 or younger
8/9 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
8/9 – Won over 2m fences before
7/9 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
7/9 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Rated between 137-147
5/9 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
5/9 – Won last time out
4/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Unplaced favs
4 of the last 5 winners have been 6 year-olds
Rouge Vif (7/2) won the race in 2020

Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown

TQ VERDICT: Some promising chasers for the future here, including Cheddleton, who has impressed in winning his last two at Carlisle and Haydock. Sky Pirate, is another that’s improved this season - travelling well to win at Cheltenham and Warwick when winning recently. He's a fast-improving chaser that certainly seems to be getting the hang of things now and is also a proven CD winner here at the track. But it's hard to get away from the Dan Skelton runner here – ALLMANKIND. This 148-rated hurdler, who was third in the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival last season, has made a smooth transition to fences – winning both starts in impressive fashion. He likes to get on with things from the front and that was the case again last time when beating the useful Hitman by 2 ½ lengths. I've been impressed with his jumping too and even though last time he did jump out to the left a tad, that should be fine here on Warwick's left-handed course. Therefore, I’m happy to still stick with Allmankind keeping his unbeaten record over the bigger obstacles. Sacre Coeur makes up the four runners, but is likely booked for fourth unless some of the main trio fail to complete.

 

3.25– St Marys Land Warwick Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f RTV

Just 6 previous running
6/6 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
6/6 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
5/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
4/6 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
4/6 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
3/6 – Rated between 141 and 149
3/6 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
3/6 – Winning favourites
3/6 – Irish bred
2/6 – Had run at Warwick before
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Indefatigable (7/2 cfav) won the race in 2020

TQ VERDICT:  Molly Ollys Wishes and Sensulano are both proven CD winners here that command respect, while the Nicholls runner – Eglantine Du Seuill – has run well in defeat the last twice and can go well too in what looks slightly calmer waters for this former Willie Mullins inmate. Whitehotchillifilli stayed on well to win at Sandown last time out over 2m4f so the extra furlong looks a plus  - she shouldn’t be far away either, while Dolcita is another former Mullins runner that has hopped to Paul Nicholls and now Fergal O’Brien – she was second in the mares’ novices race at the Festival last season so certainly has ability. But the interesting runner here is the French raider – PAUL’S SAGA. This 7 year-old’s form is hard to translate to the UK scene, but she’s a proven Grade One winner in France. Connections have also booked Brian Hughes to ride and the fact they are making the trip over in these testing times would give you more confidence. Trip and ground are fine, while even though it’s always a bit of a risk siding with these foreign raiders, her trainer David Cottin, who also handles the useful Easysland, knows the time of day when it comes to racing over here.

 

3.55 – Paddy Power Warwick Castle Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4f RTV

10/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Irish (4) or French (6) bred
9/10 – Aged 9 or younger
9/10 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
8/10 – Favourites that finished in the top three
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
8/10 – Unplaced in their last race
7/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
5/10 – Carried 11-0 or more
3/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Clondaw Castle (11/2) won the race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: A lot with chances here, but I’ll take a chance on two trainers that have good record with their chasers here – Dan Skelton (29%) and Philip Hobbs (26%). Both have two runners each, Skelton has Oldgrangewood and SPIRITOFTHEGAMES, while Hobbs runs Gala Ball and SMARTY WILD. In fact, a case can be made for them all, but Spirtofthegames and Smarty Wild are the two I’ll be sticking by neck out on. Smarty Wild was a nice winner at Kempton last time out and despite being up 8lbs for that still gets into this better race with only 10st 8lbs to carry. That was also only his fourth run over fences so should have more in the locker over the bigger obstacles. Spiritofthegames is a bit more experienced with 12 chase runs and even though he’s only got the one win to his name over fences, he’s been placed in the top three 50% of the time. Last time connections tried him over 3m and he clearly didn’t stay, but before that ran well to be second in the Paddy Power Gold Cup off a pound higher mark than today. Add in that connections are also putting on jockey Lorcan Williams to claim 3lbs, then he’s now running off a rating 5lbs lower than when running 6th in the Brown Advisory and Merriebelle Stable Plate at the Festival last season. Of the rest, course winners Aso and Two For Gold are others to respect on their best form, while along with the already mentioned Smarty Wild. Admiral’s Secret is the only other recent winner in the field after going in at Ludlow last time and has now won his last three. He's a rapidly-improving chaser for his age (10), but is up another 6lbs here so needs to find more during his advancing years. Former Cheltenham Festival winner - Mister Whitaker is another that will catch punter's eyes, but he does seem to save his best form for Prestbury Park and you feel this might just be a race to get him spot-on for the Festival next month.

 

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