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28th October 2020

York Ebor Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Fri 21st Aug 2020)

The York Ebor Festival continues on Friday 21st August 2020, as the four-day meeting heads into it's third day.

Four more LIVE ITV races to take in, including the Group Two Lonsdale Cup, but day three is all about the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes as we get a chance to see some of the best sprinters on the planet doing battle again - did you know 16 of the last 18 Nunthorpe winners came from stall 11 or lower, plus finished in the top 5 last time out?

As always, we'll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

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DAY THREE - Friday 21st August 2020

1.45 – Sky Bet Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV

16/17 – Aged 5 or younger
16/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before (6 over 1m4f)
15/17 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
15/17 – Had won at least twice on the flat before
13/17 – Carried 9-5 or less in weight
13/17 – Won from stall 8 or higher
13/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/17 – Ran at either Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (4) last time out
5/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (3) or Mark Johnston (2)
3/17 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
Tamreer (33/1) won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: Some useful middle-distance handicappers on show here but with 16 of the last 17 winners aged 5 or younger, then this could be a negative for the likes of Restorer, Dash Of Spice, Koeman, Byron Flyer, Entangling and On To Victory. It’s a race the Mark Johnston yard have done well in too – they run both KING’S CAPER and the Ryan Moore-ridden ZABEEL CHAMPION – these two are the ones that interest me the most. The former wasn’t beaten too far last time out at Goodwood and prior to that was an excellent runner-up in the G2 Italian Derby. He’s gone well in softer ground should any more rain come and is also a pound lower than last time. Zabeel Champion gets in with only 8-8 to carry in weight though and looks the sort to improve again now upped in trip. He ran a close second at Goodwood over 1m2f last time out, but the longer trip looks a good move after staying on well that day. He’s only had six career runs so should offer more and he’s another that’s gone well with cut underfoot should the rain continue. Of the rest, both Alfaatik and Dark Jedi tick a lot of boxes too, but I’m happy to stick with the Johnston pairing.

 

2.15 – Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m88y ITV

14/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
14/16 – Had 4 or more career wins
13/16 – Had won over 1m6f or further before
12/16 – Didn’t win last time out
12/16 – Raced 3 or more times that season
12/16 – Favourites placed
12/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/16 – Won a Listed or better class race before
10/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/16 – Had run at York before (8 won)
5/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/16 – Winners from stall 1
Stradivarius (4/11) won the race in 2018 and 2019

TQ VERDICT: This has been a good race for the Kevin Ryan yard in recent years so their SEVEN BROTHERS (e/w) is one for the shortlist. This juvenile is also the only proven course and distance winner in the field and is 2-from-2 so far – this is, however, a big step up in grade, but of the bigger-priced runners looks interesting. Another stable that often does well in this race is the William Haggas camp - they run Yasaman, who has been runner-up in the G2 July and Richmond Stakes this season. He can go well again and sets a fair standard but the fact he’s been beaten at this level twice would get the alarm bells ringing a could be prone to an improver – Lauded was third in the already mentioned Richmond Stakes too. Minzaal will be popular after an easy win at Salisbury last time out and can go well. Mohawk King and Escape Route are others to consider but the two I like here are UBETTABELIEVEIT and MYSTERY SMILES. The former has won his last two in good fashion, including a Listed race last time out at Sandown over 5f. He looked to have more in the locker that day and the step up to 6f looks sure to suit – Oisin Murphy, who is 2-from-2 on the horse rides. Mystery Smiles has also caught the eye in winning his last two – the last coming at Chester over this trip. He was also impressive on debut at Windsor after fluffing the start and that win also came with a bit of cut.

2.45 – Al Basti Equiworld Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

17/17 – Won just 1-2 times before
16/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/17 – Won just once before
11/17 – Foaled in March or later
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Had won over 6f before
4/17 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/17 – Trained by William Haggas
3/17 – Winning favourites
Emaraaty (5/1) won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: This really should be another G1 success for the speedy BATTAASH, who is rated a massive 11lbs higher than his nearest rival and heads here having won his last two. He landed this race 12 months ago too and despite his advancing years (6 years-old) he’s showing no signs of letting up and can make it Group One number four here. Of the rest, I’ve been impressive with Art Power this season and I think this Tim Easterby runner can follow the ‘Batman’ home. He’s a proven CD winner and has improved again this season to win his last four races now, including an easy G3 success at Naas last time out. A’Ali can do best of the rest, but is still rated 13lbs behind Battaash and only gets 2lbs!

3.15 - Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 5f ITV

16/18 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
16/18 – Had won over 5f before
16/18 – Came from stall 11 or lower
15/18 – Had an official rating of 108 or more
14/18 – Had run at the course before
13/18 – Favourites to finish in the top 4
12/18 – Were previous Group race winners
8/18 – Ran at Goodwood last time out (inc 7 of last 10)
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Placed horses from stall 1 (3rd in 2003 & 2012)
2/18 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/18 – Trained by Michael Dods
6 of the last 9 winners were fillies/mares
9/11 – Drawn 7 or higher
Battaash (7/4) won the race in 2019
Alpha Delphini (40/1) won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: This really should be another G1 success for the speedy BATTAASH, who is rated a massive 11lbs higher than his nearest rival and heads here having won his last two. He landed this race 12 months ago too and despite his advancing years (6 years-old) he’s showing no signs of letting up and can make it Group One number four here. Of the rest, I’ve been impressive with Art Power this season and I think this Tim Easterby runner can follow the ‘Batman’ home. He’s a proven CD winner and has improved again this season to win his last four races now, including an easy G3 success at Naas last time out. A’Ali can do best of the rest, but is still rated 13lbs behind Battaash and only gets 2lbs!

3.45 – British Stallion Studs EBF Convivial Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 (2yo) 7f ITV

10/10 – Foaled in Feb or later
8/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Drawn in stalls 4-11 (inc)
8/10 – Foaled in Feb or March
7/10 – Placed favourites
6/10 – Ran at Ascot (2), Newmarket (2) or Goodwood (2) last time out
6/10 – Returned 11/1 or bigger in the betting
5/10 – Irish bred
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard

TQ VERDICT: Some promising juveniles on show here but with limited form to go on the market might be the best guide. It’s a race the Hannon yard have won well in over the years so their Dingle could be interesting but would need to leave his debut sixth at HQ behind him. The Andrew Balding yard are 0-19 with their 2 year-olds at the track so their Rushmore has this stat to overcome. In contrast, the Charlie Appleby yard have a 40% record with their 2 year-olds at the track so their Naval Crown enters calculations and is one of the more experienced in the field. But he’s yet to win from two runs and might be vulnerable to a less exposed sort. Any support for the two newcomers in the race – Fast Machine, Rich Dream and Encounter Order – should be respected as they are pitched into a good race on debuts. Maximal will have it’s supporters too with Ryan Moore and Stoute teaming up. He was a close second on debut at Newbury, but the winner – Guru – flopped at big odds-on in the week so the form has taken a huge knock. So, a chance is taken on TAWLEED, who showed promise on debut when second at Goodwood and can go well for the Gosden camp. We can expect a big leap forward on that run and the step up to 7f looks a good move after keeping on well that day over 6f.

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