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20th October 2020

York Ebor Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Thurs 20th Aug 2020)

The York Ebor Festival continues on Thursday 20th August 2020, as the four-day meeting heads into it's second day.

Four more LIVE ITV races to take in, including the Group Two Lowther Stakes, plus the Group One Darley Yorkshire Oaks - did you know that 18 of the last 19 Yorkshire Oaks winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old, while 17 of the last 19York Ebor Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Thurs 20th Aug 2020) winners came from stalls 4 or higher

As always, we'll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

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DAY TWO – DARLEY YORKSHIRE OAKS & LADIES DAY

Thursday 20th Aug 2020

1.45 - Skybet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV

17/18 – Had won over 5 or 6f before
17/18 – Had won at least once before
16/18 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
16/18 – Had not run at York before
15/18 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
14/18 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/18  - Drawn in stall 4 or higher
12/18 – Won last time out
7/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/18 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/18 – Trained by William Haggas

Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket

TQ VERDICT: Some promising 2 year-olds on show here, but it’s a race the William Haggas yard have done well in recently – winning the pot in 2012 and 2015 – so with that in mind their SACRED gets the call. This juvenile was last seen winning the G2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and this step up to 6f looks a good move. She’s clearly a horse with a lot of pace but she’s bred to get this longer trip too and the way she kept on last time also backs that up. It won’t all be plain-sailing for her with the likes of Miss Armulet, who was a nice Listed winner last time at Naas, plus Santosha and Hala Hala Hala, who filled first and second in the G3 Princess Margaret last time out at Ascot. Of that lot, I feel Santosha is the biggest danger to the selection and having already won over this 6f trip is a plus. Of the rest, Noorban and Setarhe have also shown a good level of form, but of those at bigger prices SUSSEX GARDENS (e/w) stands out. Ryan Moore is booked to ride this Jessie Harrington-trained runner, who wasn’t disgraced behind the useful Mother Earth last time (2nd). The better ground here will help and with only two career runs should have more improvement to come.

 

2.15 - Goffs UK Yearling Stakes (CLASS 2) (2yo) 6f ITV

18/18 – Had 1 or 2 career wins to their name
17/18 – Had 2 or more career runs
17/18 – Foaled in Feb or later
16/18 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
13/18 – Won from stall 10 or higher
13/18 – Foaled in Feb or March
12/18 – Placed favourites
7/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by Brian Meehan
3/18 – Trained by William Haggas (inc 3 of last 7 winners)
2/18 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/18 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 4 winners)
2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/18 – Placed horses from stall 1

Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket
2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 renewals were run at Doncaster

TQ VERDICT: The Kevin Ryan yard often do well in these sorts of races and have won this prize twice since 2011 – they run Uncle Jumbo and Tinochio, and with Ryan Moore booked to ride the first-named – UNCLE JUMBO (e/w), this one is worth an interest. He won by a short-head on debut at Doncaster and would have learned a lot from that. It’s interesting that connections have given him 2 months off to get over that run and draw 19 looks good with 13 of the last 18 winners hailing from stalls 10 or bigger. Other yards that have done well in this race are Brian Meehan (Talbot), Richard Fahey (Brazen Prince) and Richard Hannon, who have won 3 of the last 4 runnings – they have HAPPY ROMANCE and Power Station entered. The former of that pair was a nice winner at Newbury last time out of the Weatherby’s Super Sprint and prior to that wasn’t beaten far in the G2 Queen Mary Stakes at Ascot – she can go well. Recent winners, Bilian and Line Of Reason are others to consider - however, the ratings suggest the clear one to beat is the Tom Dascombe runner – DEVIOUS COMPANY. This 2 year-old was last seen running well in the G2 Superlative and Vintage Stakes at HQ and Goodwood and if running to that level again would surely be hard to beat in this company. Those against him might look to the fact all four of his career runs have been over 7f, but he’s shown plenty of pace in his races to suggest this drop to 6f is a good move.


2.45 - Clipper Logistics Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

16/17 – Had won 2 or more times before
15/17 -  Winning distance of 2 lengths or less
13/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/17 – Returned 15/2 or bigger in the betting
12/17 – Ran at either Ascot (4), Sandown (2), Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (2) last time out
12/17 – Had 4 or more runs already that season
12/17 – Unplaced last time out
11/17 – Won from stall 12 or lower
11/17 – Carried 9-0 or less
2/17 – Won by the Hills (Barry/Charlie) stable
1/17 – Winning favourites
What’s The Story (12/1) won the race in 2019
Poet’s Society (20/1) won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: A competitive handicap next, but with 13 of the last 17 winners aged 3 or 4 years-old then this can rule some of the 20 runners out – Argato, Documenting, Firmament, What’s The Story, Another Touch and Chatez all seemingly have this age stat against them. Prompting was a good winner of the Golden Mile at Goodwood last time out and is a proven course winner here. He’s up 6lbs for that win though so more is needed here and I think the horse that ran nineth that day – SIR BUSKER (e/w) – could turn the tables on better terms. This 4 year-old, who is drawn 11, was denied a clear run many times in that last race so would surely have got closer and with top jockey Oisin Murphy sticking by him that’s another plus. Prior to that he’d run well at Royal Ascot and Newmarket in similar big-field competitive races, so providing he gets a clearer passage through this time can be in the shake-up. The unbeaten Top Rank is another that will be popular, but this is his hardest task to date, while Montatham has improved a lot this season and should not be far away. What’s the Story won this race 12 months ago and looks to be running into form after a good third last time out at Newcastle, but is 3lbs higher than last year. The other pick though is last year’s fourth – FIRMAMENT (e/w), who also won this race in 2016. Yes, at 8 he’s not getting any younger, but is a pound lower than 12 months ago and jockey Sean Kirrane helps by taking off another 5lbs – so he’s 6lbs lower. He also won last time out at York and despite being 5lbs higher here that is all offset with the jockey’s claim. He’s one of just three proven course and distance winners in the field and is an experienced campaigner in these sorts of races – this will be his 65th career outing.

 

3.15 - Darley Yorkshire Oaks (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) ITV

18/19 – Aged 3 (12) or 4 (6) years-old
18/19 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
17/19 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
17/19 – Had at least 3 previous wins to their name
16/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
16/19 – Placed favourites
15/19 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
13/18 – Previous Group 1 winners
12/18 – Had won over 1m4f before
8/18 – Winning favourites
7/18 - Had run in that season’s Epsom Oaks (2 winners)
4/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (Won it 8 times in all)
2/18  - Trained by Jim Bolger
Enable (1/4 fav) won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: Some lovely sorts on show here, including the Epsom Oaks third – Frankly Darling, the recent easy Lancashire Oaks winner – Manuela De Vega – and the shock Nassau Stakes heroine – One Voice. However, it would be a big shock if the Aidan O’Brien runner – LOVE – wasn’t adding this Group One to her already impressive haul. She landed the 1,000 Guineas and then the Epsom Oaks in great fashion in her last two races – winning both by an aggregate of 13 ½ lengths! She proved he stayed this 1m4f trip well last time out and looks a middle distance filly that can mop-up these big races for a while yet. He’s looking for her fourth G1 already and, just like the other 3 year-olds in the race, she gets a massive 9lbs of the only 4 year-old in the race – Manuela De Vega. Rated 122, she’s got 8lbs in hand on her neatest rival – One Voice – so should have no issues landing this. She’s also entered for the St Leger next month and the Arc in October – a race she’s already as short as 3/1 for. Alpinista was a nice Listed winner last time, but has more on her plate here, while the next best might come from the John Gosden runner – Franconia – who has picked up two Listed races recently and with only three runs might have a bit more scope for improvement than some of the others. If really should be Love first and the rest toiling in behind though!

3.45 British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies and Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f ITV

10/10 – Won between 1-3 times
10/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Winners from stalls 5-11 (inc)
9/10 – Won over at least 1m2f
9/10 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/10 – Drawn between stalls 5-9 (inc)
5/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/10 – Drawn in stall 6
2/10 – Trained by John Gosden
2/10 – Trained by Dermot Weld
2/10 – Trained by William Haggas
2/10 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni

TQ VERDICT: A competitive Listed race to end the LIVE action. It’s interesting that 9 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 5-11, so with that in mind horses VIVIONN, ALBAFLORA, NETTE ROUSSE, STAR TERMS, BLACK LOTUS, AWARD SCHEME and SEA OF FAITH look the ones to focus on. Of that bunch, the Queen’s Award Scheme is a course winner that beat Black Lotus by 5 lengths two runs back so should have the measure of that one, but was beaten at Salisbury last time out in a similar race so needs to bounce back. Trainer William Haggas has won this prize twice since 2013 and in Sea Of Faith has a leading chance of adding to that. She was last seen winning well at Salisbury in August 19 though so does have a long lay-off to get over and is up in grade here. She’s clearly a horse that’s had a few issues, but is talented too so can’t be ruled out. But the call is for the Sir Michael Stoute runner – VIVIONN. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride this 4 year-old and she should stirp a lot fitter for a recent third to the useful Manuela De Vega in a G3. This drop in grade will help too and Moore has won on the horse in the past too. Of the rest, Gold Wand is another with a big-looking chance, but it’s worth noting that the already mentioned Haggas yard also have LADY G (e/w) running and she could have more to come with just three career runs. She was a close second at this level last time too and would have learned a lot from that – Tom Marquand rides.

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