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27th September 2020

York Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Thurs 9th July 2020

Normally run in May, but the York Dante Meeting was cancelled this year due to the Coronavirus outbreak.

However, the good news is three of their races have been moved to this Thursday (9th July) – the Musidora and Dante Stakes, plus the Listed Marygate Fillies’ Stakes – and will be shown LIVE on ITV Racing too.

We take a look at the three LIVE races with key trends and stats – use these to find the profiles of past winning horses.

York Horse Racing Trends

Thursday 9th July 2020

 

2.05 – EBF Marygate Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo) 5f ITV4

14/15 – Had won over 5f before
14/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Won by a horse foaled in February or later
13/15 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
13/15 – Had won between 1-2 times before
13/15 – Won last time out
11/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Winners from stall 9
6/15 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 6-11 (inc)
Richard Fahey has trained 2 of the last 9 winners
Michael Bell has trained 2 of the last 12 winners
2019 Winner: Good Vibes (10/1)

With 13 of the last 15 winners coming from stall 4 or higher, then the Roger Varian-trained SARDINIA SUNSET, who will come out of stall 7 looks the one to be on. This juvenile was a cracking fourth at Ascot last time out in the Queen Mary’s Stakes and that is the clear best form on offer here unless one of the others improves from their last runs – the Varian team also have a decent 18% record with their 2 year-olds at the track. Of the rest, with 10 of the last 11 winners coming from stalls 6-11 (inc), then Country Carnival and Sands Of Time can give the selection most to think about.

2.40 – Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2 1/2f ITV4

17/18 – Had won a race before
15/18 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had a previous run that season
14/18 – Finished 4th or better last time
13/18 – Came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
11/18 – Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks
8/18 – Won by the favourite
8/18 – Won their previous race
5/18 – Previous distance winners over 1m2f
5/18 – Trained by John Gosden (5 of the last 9)
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (3 of last 5)
3/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick
1/18 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Sariska 2009)
0/18 – Had run at York before
11 of the last 14 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won the race
2019 Winner: Nausha (14/1)

This race is dominated by owners Khalid Abdullah, who has the first three in the betting, plus the Godolphin yard, who also have two fair chances – it would be a shock if one of these top owners isn’t wining this! John Gosden runs two of the Abdullah horses – Franconia and RICETTA – but with Frankie Dettori picking to ride the former then she’s sure to attract attention. She needs to step up from her two wins here (Rowley) but connections clearly feel she’s up to the task and with Frankie choosing her over Franconia, who he also rode to win last time, speaks volumes. Yes, Franconia still can't be discounted lightly as she's looked very decent in winning last time out at Newbury, but I can't help keep going back to why Frankie's pick the other runner - Graham Lee rides Franconia. Pocket Square is the other Abdullah runner from the Roger Charlton yard. She won her last two, including a G3 in France last time out and having won on heavy and good-to-fir ground then conditions won’t be an issue – if ready to rumble after 260 days off looks set to play a big part too. Gosden also runs one of the Godolphin horses – Lake Lucerne – who was last seen winning a maiden at Chelmsford so more is on her plate here. The other ‘blues runner’ is Dubai Love and this one looks their better chance after last being seen running a fine third in the Sandringham Stakes at Ascot.

3.15 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2 1/2f ITV4

16/18 – Winners that went onto run in the Epsom Derby (4 won)
14/18 – Finished third or better last time out
12/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Had a previous race that season
11/18 – Won their previous race
9/18 – Went onto be placed in the Epsom Derby
4/18 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
4/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/18 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (won it 4 times in all)
3/18 - Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (won it 6 times in all)
3/18 – Won by jockey Ryan Moore
3/18 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of last 5 runnings)
2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick
1/18 – Had run at York before
0/18 – Winners from stall 2
Just 2 winning favourites in the last 13 runnings
Golden Horn (2015) was the last Dante winner to go onto win the Epsom Derby
2019 Winner: Telecaster (7/1)

Some useful middle-distance performers in the making here, but the clear form pick is the Sir Michael Stoute runner – HIGHEST GROUND. The yard have a top record in this race, winning it 6 times in total, and with this 3 year-old having won both his starts in good fashion looks the sort to progress up the ranks. He was last seen winning at Haydock last month over this trip and with only two career runs should have more in the locker to come from this Frankel colt. Aidan O’Brien raided these shores to good effect last weekend and so his Cormorant, who won well at Leopardstown last month, looks interesting and can give the pick most to think about. He beat Russian Emperor that day and that horse has since gone onto win the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot – the O’Brien yard have won this race 4 times, with the last of those coming in 2010. Thunderous, Al Madhar and Juan Elcano are others that have the form to go well, but the other pick is the Godolphin runner – ENCIPHER (e/w). This 3 year-old will have Frankie riding and hails from the John Gosden yard that have won 3 of the last 5 runnings of this. Yes, he needs to step up on what he’s done so far, but was only beaten a neck by Al Madhar last time out at Newbury and with that coming off a 329 break cane be expected to have improved for it.

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