Chester May Meeting Free Tips and Trends – DAY ONE (Weds 8th May 19)

Chester May Meeting Free Tips and Trends - DAY ONE (Weds 9th May 18)

A top midweek of horse racing in prospect with the three-day Chester May Meeting running from Weds-Friday. We get going on day one with FOUR LIVE ITV races that include the  plus the Cheshire Oaks and Chester Vase.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at TRAINERS-QUOTES with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – Good Luck!

 

CHESTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RUK)

1.50 – Stellar Group Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 5f16y ITV

17/17 – Had a recent run that season
16/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/17 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd
13/17 – Had won over 5f before
13/17 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Won last time out
10/17 – Horses from stall 2 finished in the top 3
9/17 – Came from stalls 1-3
6/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Came from stall 1 (but none in the last 12 years)
3/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston (3 of the last 5 years)
2/17 – Trained by Tom Dascombe (2 of last 9 years)
2/17 – Trained by David Evans
The horse from stall 5 has won 4 of the last 12 runnings

TQ VERDICT: Blink and you’ll miss it! Run over 5f, then the horses drawn low here have a big advantage – 9 of the last 17 came from stalls 1,2 or 3. Therefore, Lakeview (1), Album (2) and Great Dane (3) will be trying to uphold this stat. Trainer Tom Dascombe has won 2 of the last 9 runnings so his Dr Simpson and Iva Reflection are interesting but the first-named will have to overcome draw 11! Show Me Show Me won well on debut and Electric Ladyland is 2-from-2, but both draws 8 and 10 make life hard. With Frankie booked to ride Album then his price is sure to come in, but call here is to side with TOP BUCK and GREAT DAME. The first-named is drawn 4 and was a fine second in his debut at Windsor – he showed plenty of pace that day and Oisin Murphy is a plus in the saddle. Great Dame is drawn in 3 and caught the eye when winning well at Ripon last time. She made most that day so cane be expected to blast out from her low draw and being a filly also gets 5lbs from the boys here.

2.25 – Arkle Finance Cheshire Oaks (for the Robert Sangster Memorial Cup) (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m3f79y ITV

15/17 – Had not won over this trip (or further) before
15/17 – Had a previous run that season
14/17 – Favourites that finished in the top three
12/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/17 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
8/17 – Won their last race
5/17 – Winners from stall 4
6/17 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
4/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Trained by John Gosden
2/17 – Winners (Light Shift) that went onto win the Epsom Oaks
None of the last 17 winners had run at Chester before

TQ VERDICT: Trainer John Gosden won this in 2010 and 2017 – he looks to have another top chance this year too, with both Fanny Logan and Mehdaayih in the race. Both won well last time out and were separated by just a neck (Mehdaayih won) when meeting at Yarmouth last October. Frankie rides FANNY LOGAN and after an impressive win at Wetherby last month might have the more scope for improvement of the two and can go well. O’Brien sends over Secret Thoughts and with the yard having won this race 6 times in the last 17 years she’s respected. Ryan Moore also rides and he’s won this race 3 times in the last 4 years. However, with 12 of the last 17 winners finishing in the top two last time out she’ll have to overcome this stat having finished fifth last time. It was a solid fifth though to Lady Kaya, who ran well in the 1,000 Guineas last weekend. Vivis Diamond and Grace And Danger are others to consider, but the other call here is the Ralph Beckett-trained MANUELA DE VEGA. This 3 year-old is 2-from-2 after wins at Salisbury and Pontefract, while despite not having had a recent run has gone well fresh before. The step up in trip looks a plus and she holds an Oaks entry too.


3.00 –
Boodles Diamond Handicap Cl2 5f16y ITV

17/17 – Winners from stall 7 or lower
16/17 – Had won before over this trip
13/17 – Carried 8-11 or less
14/17 – Winners came from stalls 1-4
11/17 – Had run before that season
10/17 – Favourites that finished in the top three
7/17 – Returned a double-figure price
7/17 – Had won before at Chester
2/17 – Trained by Eric Alston
3/17 – Won their last race
2/17 – Winning favourites
The last 11 winners returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting

TQ VERDICT: With ALL of the last 17 winners coming from stalls 7 or lower then I’m going to focus on this bunch – Top Breeze (1), Angel Alexander (2), Yolo Again (3), Society Queen (4), She Can Boogie (5), Leodis Dream (6) and Liberation Day (7). Then with 16 of the last 17 winners having won over 5f before then of that seven, Liberation Day & Angel Alexander fall down. Carrying 8-11 or less is another positive trend, while horses from stalls 1-4 have won 14 of the last 17. With this in mind, SOCIETY QUEEN (e/w) and YOLO AGAIN (e/w) are the two that stand out. The first-named hails from the Richard Fahey yard that often go well at this meeting and with jockey Sean Davis claiming 5lbs then this 3 year-old gets in with just 8-0! Draw 4 looks good and she’s gone well fresh in the past too so the 284-day break is fine. Yolo Again will have the services of Silvestre De Sousa and she should find this easier than the Listed race she ran 8th in last time. Of the rest, the speedy Top Breeze can go well from stall 1, while Leodis Dream has done little wrong in winning his two races this season.


3.35 – MBNA Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 (3yo) 1m4 1/4f ITV

16/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Finished third or better last time out
13/17 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd in this race
14/17 – Had a previous run that season
12/17 – Went onto finish 7th or better in the Epsom Derby
9/17 – Didn’t win their previous race
9/17 – Came from stalls 1 or 2
8/17 – Winning favourites
8/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (5 of last 6 winners)
7/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (5 of last 6 winners)
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
Just one winner in the last 17 years went onto win the Epsom Derby winner (2013 – Ruler Of The World),
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

TQ VERDICT: The Charlie Fellowes-trained King Ottokar was a top winner last time out at Newbury and holds a Derby entry – this will be harder, but I know the yard think a lot of him and he can go well – a win, or good run here will cement his Epsom place. Technician, with Frankie riding is another to note, as are Dashing Willoughby and Arthur Kitt, but it’s hard to ignore the fact the Aidan O’Brien yard have won this race 8 times and in 5 of the last 6 years! He’s got three in the race – Sir Dragonet, Gentile Bellini and NORWAY – all three can’t be ruled out. However, with Ryan Moore having the pick then the safe call is to side with Norway. Okay, Moore got it wrong in the 2,000 Guineas at the weekend, but I’ll be hoping he’s not off the mark here. Norway was a fine fourth in a Group One in France last time and before that won a Listed contest well. This drop in to a Group Three will be right up his street and should also be much more at home over this longer trip. He was also entered in the Dee Stakes this week, but it’s interesting they are opting for the longer trip here – something he looks like he’s been crying out for. He’s around 20/1 for the Derby, but a win here should see that price shorten. Of the rest, the Brian Meehan-trained KALOOR (e/w) might be rest of those at a price. Yes, he was 5 lengths behind King Ottokar last time at Newbury but the better ground and longer trip will be more in his favour, plus that was only his second career run – he’s three times the price of the King.