Doncaster TV Trends and Free Tips: Thursday 13th Sept 2018

Doncaster TV Trends and Free Tips: Thursday 13th Sept 2018

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse this week for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV4.
As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past.

 

Thursday 13th September 2018


1:50 – British Stallion Studs “Carrie Red” EBF Fillies´ Stakes (Nursery Handicap) Cl2 6f110y ITV4

15/15 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Carried 9-3 or less
12/15 – Placed third or better last time out
12/15 – Rated 75 or higher
11/15 – Had won at least one race before
10/15 – Won by a Feb or Mar-born foal
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Came from a double-figure stall
9/15 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
7/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Had run at Doncaster before
2/15 – Won by the Hannon team
2/15 – Won by the Richard Fahey team
2/15 – Won by the Paul Cole yard
Ellthea (8/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9.5/1

TQ VERDICT: A super competitive first live race with some promising 2 year-olds on show. With 13 of the last 15 winners carrying 9-3 in weight that’s a negative for the top two on the card – Gallovie and K Club, who are both expected to be popular in the betting after three promising runs each. 12 of the last 15 winners finished in the top three last time out so this is also another key stat to note. 11 of the last 15 successful horses had also won a race before so despite being one of the more-fancied runners this is a cross against the Jeremy Noseda-trained Lady Cosette. This filly sports the first-time blinkers too so might not be as totally straight forward. Having said that she’s shown a decent level of form, despite not winning, and if the headgear brings out a bit more then should be in the mix. However, the Richard Hughes runner – WINTER LIGHT – is the call. This juvenile bolted-up at Brighton last time out over 5 ½ furlongs and manner of that victory suggests there is a lot more to come. Ryan Moore is an encouraging sign in the saddle too and with 9-3 then just about falls into the key weight trend. Of the rest, Porcelain Girl is the only proven course winner in the line-up and was also a good winner last time out. Finally, the Andrew Balding (31%) and Jedd O’Keeffe (24%) camps boasts decent records with their 2 year-olds at the track so their STRICT TEMPO and EVIE SPEED might be worth a small interest of those at bigger prices.

 2.25 – William Hill May Hill Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV4

15/16 – Had 1 or 2 previous career wins
14/16 – Had won over 7f before
14/16 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
14/16 – Won by a Feb, Mar or April foal
10/16 – Won last time out
9/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/16 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 2
6/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/16 – Trained by John Gosden
10 of the last 12 winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
Laurens (11/4) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2

TQ VERDICT: With the William Haggas (38%), Saeed Bin Suroor (31%), Andrew Balding (31%) and Karl Burke (24%) yards having decent records with their 2 year-olds at the track then their runners – Magnetic Charm, Dubai Beauty, Dutch Treat and Divinity are all respected. The powerful Aidan O’Brien camp also send over a decent duo in Fleeting and Peach Tree, with Ryan Moore riding the last-named. However, surprisingly this is a race the Ballydoyle men are yet to win. The Richard Hannon yard also have a fair record in the race with wins two wins in the last 16 years – they run Sweet Pearl and Star Terms. The last of those looks their better chance after two good wins at Newbury and Newmarket. 14 of the last 16 winners had raced at least twice before so that would be a negative for Godolphin’s once-raced Dubai Beauty and the Roger Charlton runner – Sand Share. Dubai Beauty won well on debut over 7f but is bred for this longer trip and is certainly a big danger. With these juveniles improving all the time at this part of their careers then this can often be a hard race to call. However, the Karl Burke yard won the race 12 months ago and with a 24% strike-rate with their juveniles here their DIVINITY (e/w) might be worth chancing. She’s a proven distance winner over this mile – and that can only be said for one other runner in the race – Sweet Pearl. She’s also won over slightly further (1m 1/2f) so connections are likely to make full use of her stamina. Clifford Lee has also ridden her in all three of her starts and remains in the plate. Of the others, it might also be worth having a small interest in the Queen’s MAGNETIC CHARM (e/w). She beat Winter Light – who is well-fancied for the previous race – at Newbury in August and even though she was beaten into 6th in the Prestige Stakes last time at Goodwood she was still only beaten 2 ¼ lengths. The step up in trip is an unknown but with the Haggas team boasting a decent 38% record with their 2 year-olds here then she’s worth taking a chance on.

 

3:00 – DFS Park Hill Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f132y ITV4

13/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Won no more than 4 times before
9/15 – Had run at Doncaster before
8/15 – Previous Group winners
7/15 – Had won over at least 1m6f before
6/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Won the Lilly Langtry (Goodwood) that season
4/15 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
Alyssa (25/1) won the race in 2017

TQ VERDICT: Only seven runners but a fair renewal of this Group Two. Of those entered then really it would be a shock if this is not going to one of four – Sizzling, Pilaster, God Given and Horseplay. Of those the 4 year-old’s God Given and Horseplay are very closely-matched but being older have to give away weight to Pilaster and Sizzling so that prove the difference. Sizzling has been impressive winners of Listed and a Group Three recently, but this is another step up, plus this is another race the Aidan O’Brien are yet to win. So, that leaves us with PILASTER. This 3 year-old has won her last two, including the Group Two Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood last time out so we know she’s up to this level and this 1m6f trip. With just four career runs there should also be more to come while she gets a handy 7lbs from God Given and 10lbs from Horseplay which gives her a big advantage. Of the others, the Ralph Beckett yard have won the last two runnings of this race so of those at a bigger price their ISABEL DE URBINA could run better than her odds suggest. She needs to bounce back from being beaten 6 lengths by Pilaster last time out she was hampered two furlongs out that day so with a bit more luck in-running can be given a squeak and should be closer this time.

 

3:35 – Weatherbys Racing Bank £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes Cl2 6f110y ITV4

13/14 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/14 – Finished 5th or better last time out
10/14 – Yet to win over 7f
10/14 – Won between 1-2 times
10/14 – Won from a double-figure stall
9/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Raced at York last time out
6/14 – Foaled in Jan or Feb
4/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey (including 2 or the last 4 runnings)
2/14 – Had raced at Doncaster before
2/14 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda
2/14 – Trained by Brian Meehan
2/14 – Ridden by Franny Norton
2/14 – Won by a filly
1/14 – Irish-trained winners
1/14 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2009)
9 of the last 11 winners carried 8-12 or less in weight
Laugh A Minute (12/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 18/1

TQ VERDICT: A huge pot up for grabs here for these juveniles. The Richard Fahey yard have won two of the last four so their runners – Wasntexpectingthat & Get The Rhythm will be looking to enhance that record. Of the two, the Paul Hanagan-ridden Get The Rhythm looks the more fancied after winning well at Thirsk last time out. However, the Richard Hannon yard love to target these lucrative sales races too and their filly AIM POWER looks to hold a big chance. She’s rated 94 but with just 8st 4lbs to carry gets weight all round and based on that looks well in. Yes, she’s rated 13lbs inferior to the likes of The Irish Rover, but receives a handy 12lbs off that O’Brien runner so there shouldn’t be much between them. She also ran on well over 6f last time, so the extra half a furlong looks a plus too. The Irish Rover is the class act though after running well in the Group One July Stakes and Group Two Gimcrack Stakes this season, so it would be a surprise if he’s not in the mix in this easier grade – Ryan Moore rides. Of the rest, Louis Treize caught the eye when winning easily up at Newcastle last time out and holds a lot of fancy entries to suggest connections feel he’s useful. Celebrity Dancer and Kinks are others to note. With a 40% and 31% record with his 2 year-olds at the track then others to mention are the George Scott-trained Crantock Bay and the Saeed Bin Suroor runner – Jfoul.