Glorious Goodwood Free Tips and Trends: DAY FIVE (Sat 4th Aug 2018)

Glorious Goodwood Free Tips and Trends: DAY FIVE (Sat 4th Aug 2018)

It’s panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the start of August with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 31st July to Sat 4th Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We continue on Day FIVE with four LIVE ITV races, including the Gordon Stakes and the super-competitive Stewards’ Cup.

 

Glorious Goodwood Trends and Free Tips

DAY FIVE – Saturday 4th August 2018

1.50 – Qatar Stewards’ Sprint Stakes Handicap (Consolation Race for the Qatar Stewards’ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f

14/14 – Didn’t win their last race
12/14 – Raced at Goodwood previously
13/14 – Had won over 6f previously
11/14 – Won at least 3 times during their career
11/14 – Had 4 or more runs that season
10/14 – Finished 4th or worse in their last race
10/14 – Favourites unplaced
8/14 – Priced between 8/1 and 12/1 in the market
7/14 – Winning Distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
7/14 – Raced at either York (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out
3/14 – Trained by Clive Cox
3/14 – Favourites (one in the last 12 years)
1/14 – 3 year-old winners
Scorching Heat (9/2 fav) won the race 12 months ago
11 of the last 12 winners carried 9-0 or more
8 of the last 12 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-5
No winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
Horses from stall 3 has won 2 of the last 9 runnings

TQ VERDICT: With 11 of the last 12 winners carrying 9-0 or more then this is a good place to start. Of the 23 runners this means we can knockout the bottom three on the card – Barracuda Boy, Dahik and B Fifty Two. We’ve not seen a winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings either so this might be seen as a negative for Dark Shot, who we saw running here earlier in the week (9th). Previous Goodwood form is another thing to look for, as is wining over this 6f trip in the past. With 11 of the last 14 winners finishing fourth or worse last time out this is something else to note. With all that taken into account the two I like here are BOY IN THE BAR and RELATED. The first-named will have Ryan Moore riding and is a past course and distance winner. Now 7 years-old but there is not real age bias in this race in recent years, We can ignore his run last Saturday at York as that came on soft ground but the time before that was a fair fourth at Doncaster over this trip. Off a mark of 84 he’s well-handicapped on old form and has run here at the track four times. The Ian Williams yard are going well at the moment too and draw 21 gives him the option to grab the rail. The other selection – Relatedis a consistent sort that is also a course winner. He hit winning form around this time of the year in 2017 with two successes in July and August, while draw 9 gives him options in the middle of the pack. Of the rest,Maakaasib, Zac Brown, Aleef, Classic Seniority and George Dryden are running well at present so can be expected to run well too.

 

2.25 – The Qatar Summer Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f ITV

14/15 – Had won at least twice before
13/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
13/15 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
12/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/15 – Carried 9-7 or more
9/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Rated between 90-100
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
4/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/15 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
No winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
Horses from stalls 12, 13 & 14 have good e/w records in recent years
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 10-14 (inc)
Solider In Action (11/1) won the race 12 months ago

TQ VERDICT: The Mark Johnston yard have won this race twice in the last three years and also have their winner from 12 months ago – SOLIDER IN ACTIONgoing again. This 5 year-old will have the services of Silvestre de Sousa and despite heading here with a bit to prove is actually a massive 9lbs lower than last year as a result. He’s not won a race since but does seem to enjoy this track – he’s won his last two here. Some may also notice that his win last year came on soft ground, but he’s got decent winning form on quicker ground too (good) so that’s not a worry. Johnston also has Time To Study, Hochfeld, Sofia’s Rock and Watersmeet in the race, so clearly means business, and all four look to have similar chances too. The Ryan Moore-ridden Melting Dew will be popular too coming from the Sir Michael Stoute yard and heads here having won it’s last two, while Godolphin’s Walton Street is a proven course winner and has been running well of late too. Both will have their supporters, but both also don’t look the best of value as a result of their powerful connections. The other main fancy though is PACIFY, who travelled really well last time and was a good winner at York in a similar race. He’s up just 5lbs for that 4 ½ length win over 1m4f but looks well worth a crack over this longer trip and there could be more to come – he’s been placed in the top three in 10 of his 19 career starts. Platitude is another course and distance winner in the field that won well here two starts ago. He’s up just 2lbs for that and wasn’t disgraced when second in a Listed race over 2m last time. This former Sir Michael Stoute runner is now with the Amanda Perrett yard that love to have winners here and is certainly another for the shortlist.

 

3.00 – Qatar Gordon Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

15/15 – Won between 1-3 times before
14/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/15 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
11/15 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/15 – Winning distance – neck or shorter
8/15 – Went onto run in the St Leger
6/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Raced at Ascot last time out
6/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda
2/15 – Went onto win the St Leger
10 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 4-10 (inc)
The horse from stall 7 has won 4 of the last 11 runnings
Horses from stalls 4,7 & 10 have won 8 of the last 11 runnings
Crystal Ocean (6/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago

TQ VERDICT: Only a small field this year but still a fascinating contest that is often billed as a St Leger trial ahead of the final Classic of the season in September. The Mark Johnston yard last took this in 2011 and with Dee Ex Bee their 3 year-old sets the standard. He was runner-up in the Epsom Derby and off a rating of 166 is the highest in the field. He’s since run seventh in the Irish Derby and a fair third over tin France in the Group One Grand Prix de Paris so this drop in grade into a Group Three gives him an obvious-looking chance. He’s also a course winner so we know the track is fine. However, his knockers will look to the fact he’s still to win beyond 1m4f, while even though he’s run well on a quick surface both wins to date have been with cut underfoot. He’s now six races without a win, plus even though he’s been placed at the highest level he’s actually never won a race at Listed or better grade yet. With that in mind, he might just be vulnerable to an improver here. The John Gosden yard have surprisingly only won this race once before but in Crossed Baton they’ve a good chance of improving on that record. He caught the eye when winning at Epsom and Kempton earlier this season but failed to follow-up those wins when upped in class since. Frankie is back in the saddle though, so that will make him popular and recent runner-up finishes in the Hampton Court (Royal Ascot) and over in France were encouraging efforts – if running to that level here will be a player. The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin last took this race in 2013 and have won it three times in all. They have Cross Counter and Loxley entered at this stage and both look to have similar chances. Loxley is a proven course winner when winning on debut here last October and we know he’ll get the trip after running on well to be second over 1m5f last time in the Bahrain Trophy at HQ. Cross Counter would need to make the leap from handicap company into Group class, but he’s been winning well at that lower level and deserves to take his chance. He’s a winner over this trip and seems to love quick ground, which he should get here. However, the call is for the Sir Michael Stoute yard to continue their top record in the race – they’ve won it ten times. He has SUN MAIDEN entered here and with just three career runs is a horse that could have the most potential. Ryan Moore has also been booked to ride and after dotting-up at Salisbury back in May wasn’t disgraced when third in the Ribblesdale at Ascot last time. This drop into a Group Three (from G2) looks a plus and with that experience under her belt she should be a much better horse. She gets a handy 3lbs from the male horses in the race, while the Stoute camp boast an impressive 22% record with their 3 year-olds at the track. Yes, she’ll need to settle a bit better, but she’ll have the perfect partner in Ryan Moore on that score – she’ll be looking to become Stoute’s fourth winner in the race since 2014.

 

3.35 – Unibet Stewards´ Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

15/15 – Had won over 6f before
14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
14/15 – Had at least 3 previous career wins to their name
14/15 – Had 3 or more previous runs that season
11/15 – Raced at either Ascot, York or Newmarket last time out
10/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
10/15 – Placed favourites (top 4)
10/15 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/15 – Raced at Goodwood before
8/15 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
5/15 – Favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
2/15 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
2/15 – Winning 3 year-olds
Lancelot Du Lac (25/1) won the race 12 months ago
10 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure draw
Stall 18 has won 2 of the last 12 runnings

TQ VERDICT: Last year’s winner – Lancelot Du Luc – will be hoping to become the first back-to-back winner of the race since Sky Diver (1967/68) and is actually only a pound higher than 12 months ago. The ground was soft though last year so will have much different conditions this time, while even though this 8 year-old defied the key age trend 12 months ago it’s still worth pointing out that 14 of the last 15 winners were aged 6 or younger. We’ve also got last year’s runner-up in the race – Aeolus – running again but at 7 years-old he’s another that has the main age stat against him, even though he goes race off the same mark as last year. 10 of the last 15 winners were actually aged 4 or 5 and also carried 9-1 or less so combining these two trends could help whittle down the runners. Having said that, we have seen two of the last three winners aged three and there is certainly another interesting contender of this age again – FOXTROT LADY. This Jeff Smith-owned sprinter will be looking to follow-up his connections wins with Lochsong (1992) and Dancing Star (2016), and heads here having won three of her last four races. Yes, she’s up another 6lbs here and many will feel that the fact she only just got home (nose) last time at Newmarket then she’s vulnerable off this higher mark. However, the first two actually pulled 3 lengths clear of the rest of the field so the form still looks solid and with age on her side this Andrew Balding runner should have more to come – 11 of the last 15 winners of this race also ran at Newmarket, York or Ascot last time out. Of the rest, Spring Loaded will be popular with Ryan Moore booked to ride and this 6 year-old heads here in tip-top order after an easy 2 length win at Ascot last time out. He’s up 6lbs for that though and it also came over 5f so even though he’s won over this trip he’ll have to prove it off this career-high rating. Silvestre de Sousa is another interesting jockey booking – he rides the Michael Wigham-trained GLENAMOY LAD, who looks to have been laid out for this race. Fitness will have to be taken on trust as he’s not been out for 247 days but was last seen winning easily on the AW at Newcastle on a decent Class Three Handicap. He’s up 10lbs from that but the fact connections have kept him fresh for this (won off a 2 month break last time) could be a shrewd move. Course winner Quench Dolly is another that ticks a lot of boxes and heads here in form after a sooth win at Windsor, but is 6lbs higher. Silent Echo wasn’t beaten far in the Wokingham (5th) and off a 2lb lower mark commands respect too. TIS MARVELLOUS was fourth in the Wokingham so is closely linked in too and with just two runs this term should be hitting boiling point soon. This Clive Cox runner acts well in quick ground and last season was thought good enough to run in some top Group sprints. He just fell short at that level but based on that last run (beaten just a length) is starting to look well-handicapped and is another I’ll be having on my side here. Finally, Growl is another that is starting to look on a dangerous mark. He was rated as high as 114 last May so his current mark of 99 makes him interesting. Yes, he’s 13 races without a win now but ran a bit better last time (4th of 14) to suggest he’s still in love with the game.