Glorious Goodwood Free Tips and Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 31st July 2018)

Glorious Goodwood Free Tips and Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 31st July 2018)

It’s panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 31st July to Sat 4th Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We get going on Day One with four LIVE ITV races, including the Vintage Stakes and Lennox Stakes, plus the recently upgraded Group One Goodwood Cup.

 

2018 Glorious Goodwood Trends

DAY ONE – Tuesday 31st July 2018

1.50 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m1f192y ITV

15/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
14/16 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
14/16 – Had won at least 3 times already during their career
13/16 – Carried 8-11 or more
11/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Had run at Goodwood before
11/16 – Unplaced last time out
10/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/16 – Won their last race
2/16 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/16 – Winning favourites (1 co-fav)
Fabricate (20/1) won the race 12 months ago
9 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 9 or higher
8 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall

TQ VERDICT: Over the week the Mark Johnston yard have great records in a number of Glorious Goodwood races but we hit the ground running with them straight away as this is a contest they’ve won five times in the last 16 years! With that in mind their in-form RAINBOW REBEL (e/w) looks worth sticking with. This 5 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends – including age, weight and recent form – plus with 9 of the last 12 winners coming from stalls 9 or higher then draw 14 looks perfect too. He heads here after three good wins at Pontefract, Haydock and Chester, while despite being 7lbs higher than the last of those wins is clearly a horse in rude health. His last victory was also achieved by almost two lengths so the rise in the weights looks fair. It will be his first run at Goodwood, but there is no real reason to think it won’t suit, plus jockey – Joe Fanning, who has won on him five times, knows the horse very well too. Of the rest, the Dane O’Neill ridden Afaak can be considered after running an excellent second in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot last time. He’s been kept fresh for this but the big question he’ll have to answer is the step up in trip from a mile to 1m2f. Alfarris is the other Hamdan runner and with Jim Crowley picking this one is sure to be popular too. With the high draw stat in mind the others to consider that are drawn 9 or higher are Brittanic, Dark Red, Tuff Rock, Thomas Cranmer, Plutonian and Appeared. If we also apply the main age trend (15 of the last 16 were aged 4 or 5) then of those six Brittanic, Tuff Rock, Thomas Cranmer and Plutonian are the four that tick that particular trend with Appeared and the consistent Dark Red aged 6 years-old. Silver Line and Pivoine are others to note but both are drawn low and that might be seen as a negative.

 

2.25 – Qatar Vintage Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

15/16 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
15/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/16 – Had 2 or 3 previous career runs
12/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Winning favourites
10/16 – Won by a March or later foal
8/16 – Ran at either Newmarket (5) or Ascot (2) last time out
7/16 – Had won 2 previous races
4/16 – Had run at Goodwood before
4/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3 of the last 9 winners came from stall 9
Expert Eye (7/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago

TQ VERDICT: This has been a good race for the Hannon yard in recent years, with four wins since 2010 – they run Mordred, but you feel this horse would need to step up on what we’ve seen so far. 15 of the last 16 winners had won over 6 or 7f in the past, plus the same amount finished first or second in their last race. The last of those stats is therefore a negative for some well-fancied runners in the field – like Van Beethoven. This 104-rated 2 year-old comes from the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard, who are 3 from 6 with their juveniles at the track, and with Ryan Moore riding is sure to be popular. He was last seen flopping in the July Stakes at Newmarket though (7th) but did sweat a lot before the race. He was a good winner, however, at this level at the Curragh the time before, but would need to take the pre-race a bit better if he’s to get back to winning ways. Cosmic Law bolted-up at Epsom in June (6 lengths) and wasn’t really disgraced in running the classy Calyx to around 7 lengths in the Coventry Stakes last time out. The form of that race has since been franked with the second winning the July Stakes, but with his Epsom romp coming on soft ground then you feel he might need a bit more rain – if it does come, then he’s a big player for me. A rare 2 year-old runner for trainer Alan King with Dunkerron but he finished just three lengths fourth in the July Stakes so would have a big say if running to that form again here. With 10 of the last 16 winners won by a horse foaled in March or later then that might indicate horses that are a bit less exposed and with more improvement to come. With that in-mind the three that stand out are Confiding, FEDERAL LAW and DROGON. All three are respected, but the last two have had one more run and might just be a bit more streetwise. Federal Law was a neck winner over this trip at Salisbury last time but now he’s got his head in front should have more to give and would be a big winner for the up-and-coming Archie Watson camp. Drogon has a similar make-up after winning well at Haydock last time over this trip and despite this being a step up in grade did it very nicely. He’s one of just four proven distance winners in the field. The unbeaten Dark Vision is another that will be popular but so far his two wins have been over 6f, while with a 31% strike-rate with his 2 year-olds here then the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Burj can’t be totally overlooked either.

 

3.00 – Qatar Lennox Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

16/16 – Had won at least 2 times before
14/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had 2 or more previous runs already that season
13/16 – Had won over 7f before
13/16 – Previous Group Race winners
12/16 – Had previously won a Group 2 or 3
10/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/16 – Had run at Goodwood before
7/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
8 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 7 or lower
3 of the last 7 winners came from stall 5
Breton Rock (50/1) won the race 12 months ago

TQ VERDICT: Breton Rock was the surprise 50/1 winner of this race 12 months ago and will be looking to become the first back-to-back winner of the race since Nayyir defended his title in 2003 and 2002. He’s been kept fresh for this with just one run this season with this being a firm target. He acts well at the track and goes well on most ground. Suedois, who was third in this race last year, and So Beloved, who was fifth, are others to note. Of that pair SUEDOIS interests me the most. He was a close third at Ascot last time in the Group Two Summer Mile, less than a length behind the useful Beat The Bank. He’s a horse that rarely runs a bad race and does stay a bit further than this mile trip. He’s also actually the second highest-rated in the field (115). The highest-rated in the line-up is Tip Two Win, who was an excellent second in the 2,000 Guineas at HQ back in May and wasn’t disgraced when fourth in the Group One St James’s Palace Stakes last time – that form would make him the one to beat. Godolphin have a fair recent record in the race with wins in 2015 and 2016 – they will be trying to follow-up with D’bai and the 2016 winner – DUTCH CONNECTION. The last-named has a bit to find on form this year but does seem to like the Goodwood track with form figures here reading 1-2-1-1, so based on that would be the main danger to the selection. The French raider, Karar and the Aidan O’Brien runner – Spirit Of Valor – are others to note, along with Sir Dancealot, who was a decent fourth in the July Cup over 6f last time – the return to 7f here is certainly a plus. He would rate a big danger with recent runs over this 7f trip reading 2-1-1.

 

3.35 – Qatar Goodwood Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 2m ITV

14/16 – Placed last time out
12/16 – Aged 5 or older
12/16 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
12/16 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
10/16 – Had won over at least 2m before
9/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
9/16 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Had run at Goodwood before
8/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – Won their previous race
4/16 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/16 – Trained by Michael Bell
Big Orange won the race in 2015 and 2016
Stradivarius (6/1) won the race in 2017
5 of the last 21 runnings were won by a previous winner of the race
ALL of the last 14 winners had raced in the last 45 days
10 of the last 11 winners came from stall 10 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

TQ VERDICT: It was only a few years ago when we saw another back-to-back winner of the Goodwood Cup, but there is every chance we’ll see another this year as the improving stayer STRADIVARIUS will be all the rage here. John Gosden’s 4 year-old has already mopped-up the Yorkshire Cup and the Ascot Gold Cup so if he lands this race and then also takes the Lonsdale Cup at York next month he’ll scoop a £1million bonus. Frankie Dettori won’t be on this time as he’s suspended but Andrea Atzeni is a more than able substitute – he’s actually 2-from-2 on the horse! If the ground came up soft or worse then that would be an issue but really with only eleven career runs there could be even more to come. He’s already beaten a few of these – Torcedor and Desert Skyline – in the Ascot Gold Cup and is rated 9lbs higher than the Queen’s horse – Call To Mind. St Michel is another course and distance winner in the field but would have a bit to find on these terms with a lot of these, so the main danger can come from the Aidan O’Brien runner – Idaho. This 5 year-old ran below-par in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot last time but is better than that. Yes, he’s not a straightforward horse, that often gets hot before his races – however, if finding the level of form that saw him win the Ormonde Stakes at Chester three starts ago then he’d have a squeak. This will be his first try over this 2m trip but O’Brien often does well with these middle-distance performers when stepping up in distance and if in the mood he could easily be another.