Key Trends and Free Tips (Kempton & Chepstow) 27th Dec 2018

No let-up for the top-class racing action over the festive period with another huge day of National Hunt action on Wednesday 27th December.

The ITV cameras head to Kempton for three races for the second and final day of their Winter Festival, while they are also at Chepstow to take in the Welsh NationalDid you know 14 of the last 16 Welsh National winners were aged 9 or younger, and 11 of the last 16 winners carried 10-8 or less in weight?

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered at TQ with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get cracking!

Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

1.55 – 32Red Casino Mares´ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m110y ITV

11/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/11 – Priced 17/2 or shorter
9/11 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
9/11 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
8/11 – Favourites that were placed in the top 3
7/11 – Won over 3m previously
6/11 – Won their last race
5/11 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
5/11 – Ran at the track previously
5/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Aged 5 years-old
2/11 – Raced at Newbury last time out

2.30 – Unibet Desert Orchid Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

9/11 – Aged 8 or younger
8/11 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
8/11 – Run at the track previously
8/11 – Won 4 (or more) times over fences
8/11 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
8/11 – Favourites
8/11 – Officially Rated 160+
7/11 – French bred
6/11 – Ran at Sandown last time out
3/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/11 – Trained by Alan King
2/11 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
Politologue (8/15 fav) won the race 12 months ago

3.05 – 32Red.com Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV

11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
10/11 – Priced between 7/2 and 12/1
10/11 – Aged 8 or younger
9/11 – Won between 2-3 (chase) before
9/11 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
6/11 – Favourites Unplaced
5/11 – Officially Rated between 122-129
4/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
4/11 – Ran at Kempton previously
4/11 – Won over 3m (or further) previously
3/11 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
3/11 – Winning favourites (joint)
2/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson

Chepstow Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

2.50 – Coral Welsh Grand National (A Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV

16/16 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
16/16 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
16/16 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
14/16 – Aged 9 or younger
14/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/16 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
12/16 – Aged 8 or younger
11/16 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
10/16 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
10/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Irish bred
8/16 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
6/16 – Unplaced favourites
6/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – French bred
6/16 – Had run in the Welsh National before
4/16 – Ran at Chepstow last time out
2/16 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 10/1