Newbury Live Races (Fri 30th Nov 2018)

It’s DAY ONE of the Newbury Hennessy Meeting on Friday (30th Nov 2018) and we’ve four LIVE races on ITV to take in that include the Grade Two Long Distance Hurdle.
As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered with key trends and free tips.

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (LIVE RUK/ITV)

1.50 – Ladbrokes Novices’ Chase (Registered As The Berkshire Novices’ Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m3f187y ITV4

10/11 – Aged 5 or older
10/11 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Favourites placed in the top 2
8/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
7/11 – Yet to win over fences
7/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/11 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/11 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/4

Only four runners here but the mare – LA BAGUE AU ROI – looks to have a lot going for her. This promising staying hurdler was a smooth winner on chasing debut here last time, beating another of today’s runners – Lostintranslation – by 1 ½ lengths, and looks to have a big future over the bigger obstacles. She jumped well and with the mares’ allowance she actually gets 5lbs off that horse here but is rated a pound higher on the official ratings. Spiritofthegames and Talkischeap make up the field but could be playing for places.

 

2.25 – Ladbrokes Open Handicap Chase Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f187y ITV4

11/11 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
10/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Aged 9 or younger
9/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
8/11 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
7/11 – Rated between 131 and 140
7/11 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/11 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
2/11 – Trained by Alan King
2/11 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
0/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

Touch Kick gets in here with a light weight and he did well last time out over fences to win at Hereford – this will be harder though. Beggar’s Wishes heads here on a four-timer but is up a big-looking 10lbs for the latest of those wins so more is needed. The classy Willoughby Court will be popular too and is a proven course and distance winner here. He returns from a 33 day break though and this is also his first run back since having a wind op – he’s the one to beat but I’d like to see how he returns first. Three Musketeers is another course and distance winner that represents last year’s winning stable of Dan Skelton. He will be better for a recent run and of the bigger-priced runners can go well. But the call here is KING’S ODYSSEY. This 9 year-old is a very consistent sort and ran well to be second in a good race at Aintree last time out. He’s only been out of the top three twice from 12 runs over fences and with that recent run sure to have brought him on then he should give us a good run for our money.

 

3.00 –  Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m52y ITV4

13/16 – Grade One winner over hurdles
13/16 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
12/16 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
12/16 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
12/16 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
11/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Had won a hurdles race at Newbury before
10/16 – Ran at either Aintree (6) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
9/16 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – French bred
8/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Returned odds-on in the betting
7/16 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
6/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
5/16 – Won by Paul Nicholls (inc 5 of last 9 renewals)
3/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
Unowhatimeanharry won the race in 2016
Beer Goggles won the race in 2017

Unowhatimeanharry landed this prize in 2016 but he was also beaten at 7/4 twelve months ago. At the age of 10 he’s not getting any younger though and was put in his place last time but the younger WHOLESTONE. This 7 year-old is a very consistent staying hurdler that has run 17 times over the smaller obstacles and finished in the top three 14 times! He’s won six of those too and returned three weeks ago to suggest he might have even improved a bit more over the summer. The only negative is that is was well beaten (last of 6) in this race last year but that clearly wasn’t his true running. Sam Spinner rose up the staying hurdles ranks last year and is another big player – he’ll love the soft ground and is the top-rated in the field at 162. He should go well too and has gone well fresh in the past, but with a recent run under his belt the slight preference is for Wholestone – let’s just hope last year’s run in this race was a one-off and he doesn’t hate the track! Clyne will like the ground too but has a bit to find on these terms, but Momella gets a handy 13lbs off the main two in the market and of the slightly bigger-priced runners she looks the most interesting. Finally, we did get a surprise 40/1 winner of this race last year so supporters of Kris Spin, Monbeg Theatre and The Mighty Don have a bit to cling to.

 

3.35 – Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 3m52y ITV4

10/11 – Placed 5th or better last time out
10/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/11 – Raced in the last 3 weeks
10/11 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
9/11 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4), Wincanton (3) or Wetherby (2) last time
9/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Placed favourites
7/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/11 – Won just 1-2 times over hurdles
7/11 – Yet to win over 3m (or further) over hurdles
7/11 – Irish bred winners
5/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/11 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/11 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

Looking at the trends then 5 and 6 year-olds that carry 10-10 or more and finished in the top five last time out have cracking records. With that in mind the older horses in the race – Aux Ptits Soins, who was a classy sort a few seasons ago but returns from a 601-day break, Karezak, Bobo Mac, Clondaw Cian and Vive Le Roi all seemingly have a bit to answer. In contrast the three key trends are pluses for the likes of De Name Evades Me and DRAGON D’ESTRUVAL, so a big case can be made for both. The last-named hails from the powerful Nicky Henderson yard that have a stonking 28% record with their hurdlers at the track (by far the best record on show from the trainers here) and despite a 6 month break he gets the call. He was a smooth winner last May at Ffos Las on good ground but has won on soft in France so the ground will be fine. He’s sure to be tuned-up on his return and the yard have been firing in the winners over the last few weeks too. De Name Evades Me can’t be ruled out and was a gutsy winner at Warwick last time but this looks a harder race. On a plus, we know he stays as that last win came over 3m2f. Juge Et Parti and Virgina Chick are others to note and they both tick the positive age and recent form trends.

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