Sunday Free Tips and Trends (Newmarket): 5th May 2019

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends & Tips: Friday 12th Oct 2018

The top-class action from Newmarket racecourse continues into Sunday this weekend with FOUR more LIVE ITV races to enjoy. The second of the English Classics – the 1,000 Guineas – is, of course, the feature but the big Group One is also supported by three decent races that include the Group Two Dahlia Stakes.

Did you know? 15 of the last 17 1,000 Guineas winners were placed in the top three last time out, while 11 of the last 17 won their previous race.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at TQ with all the key trends, plus our free horse racing tips, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Qatar Racing Handicap (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV

14/15 – Had won at least twice before
14/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/15 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
12/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Finished in the top 5 in their last race
11/15 – Winning distance 1 ½ lengths or less
11/15 – Had won between 2-4 times before
10/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
10/15 – Had had a recent run that season
7/15 – Had run at Newmarket before (Rowley)
5/15 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/15 – Ridden by William Buick
3/15 – Winning favourites (1 co)
1/15 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

TQ VERDICT: The Amanda Perrett yard, who have a 21% record with their 4+ year-olds here, landed this pot in 2015 and will be hoping to add to that with Spirit Ridge, who has won two of his last three. He is up 8lbs from that last win though and also jumps up two grades – not one to discount if the money comes, but would have needed to have improved over the winter. Moore and Stoute team-up again too – this time with Melting Dew and with their horses in good form he can go well. Another yard in good order is John Gosden – they’ve got a leading chance here too with Corelli, with Frankie riding. The Balding yard are just 2 from 44 with this age group at the venue so their Shailene has that stat to overcome and is overlooked. Baghdad, who was a fair third last time out at Newcastle, and New Show can’t be ruled out either but the one I like here is DEJA. This Peter Chapple-Hyam runner has done little wrong so far in winning his last three and the step up to 1m4 looks a good move after staying on well over 1m2f the last twice. A 9lb rise makes life harder but I feel he’ll improve for the step up in trip and can continue his progression. Jockey William Buick has a 23% record riding 4+ year-old here and he’s also ridden the winner of this race three times since 2009.

2.20 – Charm Spirit Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f ITV

15/15 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
14/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
14/15 – Had won over 1m (or further) before
13/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
11/15 – Aged 4 years-old
8/15 – Had run at the course before
8/15 – Won this on first run of the season
7/15 – Ran at either Kempton (4) or Newmarket (3) last time out
7/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
6/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
6/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Ran at Kempton last time out
3/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/15 – Ridden by William Buick
2/15 – French-trained winners (2 of the last 5)
9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3

TQ VERDICT: We’ve last season’s 1,000 Guineas winner – Billesdon Brook running here and dropping into a Group Two must give her a decent chance, despite not having won since. She’s the clear top-rated in the field too but the fact she’s still only won once from her last six would be a concern. However, course winner, VERACIOUS will be very popular too with Ryan Moore teaming up with the Stoute team. She is a proven winner at the track too and the yard are going well during this early part of the new season. The drop in grade will also be right up her street and has run well over 1m2f to suggest this extended mile will be within range too. Of the rest, Nyaleti can be expected to take them along as she likes to race up with the pace – she’s yet another in the race that is dropping slightly in grade and would be foolish to rule out. The only niggle with her is that she’s run on the Rowley Mile three times now and been beaten on each occasion. Worth Waiting can’t be discounted either after showing a good level of form last season, while Rasima and Shenanigans make up the field, but seem to have a bit to find on these terms.


2.55 – Longholes Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

14/15 – Had won between 2-5 times before
13/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/15 – Had won over 6f before
13/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/15 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
10/15 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/15 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
7/15 – Returned between 10/1-12/1 in the betting
7/15 – Irish bred
6/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/15 – Winning favourites
Just 1 placed horse from stall 2 in the last 11 runnings
8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 9 or higher
Gifted Master won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1

TQ VERDICT: With 13 of the last 15 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old then of the 11 runners we are left with 8, with Gifted Master, who won this race last year, Gunmetal and Giogiobbo the 6 year-olds in the race. The consistent On The Warpath will be popular for the boys in blue of Godolphin – he’s finished in the top three in his last five races but has only won one of those so might not be much value – the Charlie Appleby yard does have a 29% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track though. Victory Angel is a proven course and distance winner too and can go well, but the one that gets the nod is FLAVIUS TITUS, from the Roger Varian camp. Another CD winner at the venue and heads here in great form after beating another of today’s runners – Summerghand – here last time out. They are weighted to go close again but with that success coming off a 193-day break then I feel the Varian runner will also improve for it. Of the rest, Lady Dancealot and Bernardo O’Reilly both come here off nice wins from last season so if tuned-up on their returns can’t be ruled out either.


3.35 – Qipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV

15/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/17 – Had won between 2-3 times before
12/17 – Had won a Group race before
12/17 – Drawn between 2-13 (inc)
11/17 – Won their previous race
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)
9/17 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price
8/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/17 – Favourites unplaced
7/17 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
7/17 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
6/17 – Irish-trained winners
6/17 – Drawn in stalls 7 or 8
5/17 – Previous Group One winners
5/17 – Went onto win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot
4/17 – Won by a US bred horse
4/17 – Won by the favourite
3/17 – French-trained winners
3/17 – Went onto finish fourth in the Epsom Oaks
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/17 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Kazzia 2002, Minding 2016)
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
8 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 13/1

1,000 Guineas Facts

Owner Hamdam Al Maktoum has won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the ridden the winner 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 3 times (2012, 2015, 2016)
Godolphin have won the race 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Aidan O’Brien has trained four winners, Virginia Waters (1995), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016) & Winter (2017)

TQ VERDICT: Another top renewal of the fillies Classic and it’s no surprise to see the Irish having a strong hand again. The Aidan O’Brien yard don’t have quite the same record as they do in the 2,000 Guineas, but still have four wins in this race. They’ve got Just Wonderful, Hermosa, Fleeting and Fairyland entered and of that bunch I think Fairyland just edges it. She’s one of the more experienced in the field with five career runs and even though they’ve all come over 6f – including the Cheveley Park Stakes here last September – the step up in trip looks sure to suit. Aidan’s son – Joseph – has a good chance too with IRIDESSA (e/w). She was a cracking third at Leopardstown in their 1000 Guineas Trial but was a top winner of the Fillies’ Mile here over this course and distance last October and that proven course form over this trip will be a huge asset. She’s taken to go well and reverse the form with Lady Kaya, who won that recent Leopardstown race. Skitter Scatter from the shrewd John Ox yard is a player too and comes here off the back of three straight wins, while there has been a lot of support in the week for Dandhu, who landed the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury last time. However, the main danger to the selection looks to be with the Roger Varian-trained Qabala – she’ll be hoping to give the yard their first win in the race. This 3 year-old was a well-backed winner of the Nell Gwyn Stakes here last time over 7f and should be well-suited by the step up to a mile. The course is fine and she travelled really well that day to beat Mot Juste, who lines-up again here too. However, the value seems to have gone a tad so unless you are on at the bigger prices there doesn’t seem much point wading in at the lower odds.