TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 12th Jan 2019

  • WARWICK: National Clues In The Classic Chase
  • KEMPTON: A Hot Renewal Of The Lanzarote Hurdle…..
  • TQ UPDATE: TQ VIEW WINNERS FLY IN!

Hi,

Some nice winners last Saturday for the free tips as the old-boy Houblon De Obeaux (1st 7/1, from 14/1) from the in-form Venetia Williams yard and the rapidly-improving Monsieur Lecoq (1st 11/4) winning the last two TV races at Sandown for us. We hope you were on!

Another interesting weekend ahead too, with the LIVE action coming from Warwick and Kempton this Saturday. The Classic Chase from Warwick is their feature – a Grand National trial that should give us a few pointers ahead of the big race in April. In 2017 we saw the Lucinda Russell-trained One For Arthur take the race before going onto glory in the National, while 12 months ago we saw the 11 year-old – Milansbar – turn back the clock to land the prize. He could be lining-up again this weekend and if so will be looking to become the first back-to-back winner of the race.

Then at Kempton we’ve another busy card that is spearheaded by the Lanzarote Hurdle – a listed race run over 2m5f. We take a look at the race in a bit more detail below, but the key trends to note are that 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 7 or younger and had raced in the last 7 weeks. It’s also a race that our very own Gary Moore has won three times in the past and he looks to have another leading chance this year with his hat-trick seeking Kloud Gate. 

So, plenty to look forward too and, as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend and we hope you have a top 2019!

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes: A Great Start To 2019………..

It’s been a top start to the New Year around the yards with winners for Tim Vaughan, Dave Griffiths, Gary Moore, Henry Oliver & Daniel Kubler already – plus, a number of nice each-way returns too.

A special ‘well done’ to the Gary Moore and Henry Oliver yards with doubles at Sandown and Chepstow over the last week, while Daniel Kubler’s Outrage, who was also a nice TQ View pick, is turning into a Newcastle specialist after making it 4-from-4 when wearing the visor at the northern AW track.

Here’s just a sample of recent winners…………………

“De Forgotten One – The Henderson horse might be tough for us all to beat. Our 5 year-old is a winning pointer that made a fair debut in a NH Flat race at Ascot last time (6th). Been schooled since for this debut over hurdles and been doing well. Will learn a lot from the experience but a nice sort that is one to note in the coming months. If all 8 run then place claims though with the jolly looking likely to take this.”

1st 7/4 Tim Vaughan

“Archimedes – Ran well last time at Southwell – only beaten just under 4 lengths and ran well for much of the way over 6f. The drop back to 5f will therefore help and in really good form since. Switch to Newcastle should be fine so looks to have decent e/w claims to us with another bold bid from the front expected.”

1st 8/1 Dave Griffiths

“Outrage – Has an excellent course and distance record and faces a similar field as when winning here in November. In good form – should be close again here.”

1st 11/2 Daniel Kubler

“Doc Carver – Ran well over course and distance in the past and we feel has a chance here today. Has also had a wind op since last run and his breathing sounds better as a result. Wearing the tongue-tie too so that will help as will the drop in class and rating. The Venetia Williams yard are in good order so their Air De Rock is feared but still think we can go well. “

1st 2/1 Henry Oliver

“Love Lane – Won well the last day and has come out of that race well. Up 5lbs and Jason can claim 7lbs here instead of 10lbs so we are 8lbs higher. But we feel there is more to come from her and seems well at home. Conditions are fine so think she’s got a solid e/w chance.”

1st 4/1 Henry Oliver

“ZANTE is yet to show he has retained some ability after a spell on the sidelines but having had a couple of recent runs he might strip fitter and this trip just could be more to his liking. Likes things to go his own way so I hope ZANTE comes here today with a good mind – if he does then e/w claims.”

2nd 10/1 Gary Moore

“Working Class was merited the race last time at Fakenham. He can be keen in his races but he did run well last time and I think he’s getting the hang of things now. We are hopeful of a positive run.”

2nd 14/1 Oliver Sherwood

“LARRY took a tumble last time out but I don’t think it has dented his confidence. Larry had been showing consistency with his runs and all being well should have strong claims today.”

1st 7/2 Gary Moore

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Warwick: National Clues In The Classic Chase……..

1.50 – McCoy Contractors 2019 Construction News Award Finalist Hampton Novices´ Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4

11/11 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/11 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
11/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/11 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
9/11 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
9/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/11 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/11 – Aged 7 years-old
7/11 – Returned 9/4 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
7/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Irish bred
2/11 – Trained by Alan King
2/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 11/4

I’ve been impressed with the way ROCKY’S TREASURE has improved this season to win four of his five starts over fences and there should be more in the locker. His only defeat came at the hands of the useful Santini too, but he since bounced back from that to win well at Doncaster. He’s a front runner that might just prove hard to peg back over here and he’s taken to continue his upward curve. The useful novice hurdler – Ok Corral – also won on his chase debut at Plumpton but his jumping will come under a lot more pressure here, so I’d rather be with one of the more experienced sorts. Secret Investor and White Moon make up the field and are certainly not with a chance either, but the selection looks progressive and I’ve been impressed with his jumping and attitude so far.

2.25 – Ballymore Leamington Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m5f ITV4

12/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/12 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
12/12 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/12 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
8/12 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
8/12 – Irish bred
8/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Placed favourites
6/12 – Aged 5 years-old
2/12 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune)
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 3/1

Tidal Flow went into many a notebook after his two recent wins Kempton and Newbury, while Stoney Mountain, Beakstown and Rockpoint are others that command respect. However, it’s hard to get away from the Nicky Henderson runner – BIRCHDALE – here. He was impressive when winning well on his UK debut over this course and distance last month and is already around 20/1 for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. The yard also won this race last year and with Barry Geraghty coming here to ride this one for his boss – JP McManus – then that’s another good sign.

3.00 – McCoy Constructors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m5f ITV4

13/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
12/13 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/13 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
10/13 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
9/13 – Officially rated between 129-140
9/13 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
8/13 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
8/13 –  Won by a horse aged 9 or older
8/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
8/13 – Won by an Irish bred horse
8/13 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
7/13 – Favourites placed
7/13 –  Placed in the top 3 in their last race
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price
6/13 – Had run at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
5/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both races in 2017)
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 10.5/1

Last year’s winner – Milansbar – will be looking to become the first repeat winner of this race and despite being the oldest runner in the field (12) he’s got a live chance again off 6lbs higher. He’ll be better for a recent run at Sandown but really he might want the ground to get a lot softer. The Twiston-Davies yard have won this race once in the past and in Calett Mad and Cogry they’ve two fair chances of going well. Another yard that’s got history in the race is Paul Nicholls with three successes – he runs Ibis Du Rheu and that stable boast a decent 32% record with their chasers at the course. Step Back would be interesting if he’s anywhere near the form that saw him win last season’s Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown but he’s up 14lbs from that so has a bit to price. However, the two that get in here with light weights and tick a lot of the main trends are DUEL AT DAWN and CAROLE’S DESTRIER. The last-named was a good winner at Newbury and despite his age (11) hails from a yard that have a good record with their chasers here (31%). He’s up just 3lbs for that last win and that success was also a good sign he’s not fallen out of love with the game. Duel At Dawn is better than his showed last time at Haydock but that was his first run back after a break and he can go well too off just 10st 5lbs. He’s been placed in the top two in four of his 6 chase starts and looks well worth a crack over this longer trip.

3.35 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f ITV4

13/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
12/13 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
11/13 – Carried 11-0 or less
11/13 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/13 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
10/13 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
10/13 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
10/13 – Officially rated between 126-142
10/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
7/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – Placed favourites

5/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/13 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill

2/13 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/13 – Winning favourites
7 of the last 8 winners were aged 8 or younger

The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1

Blaklion is interesting back over hurdles but is on a bit of a recovery mission after flopping in several recent races. Keeper Hill and First Assignment look more reliable at this stage and both come here off the back of good runs. The only niggle about First Assignment is the form of the Ian Williams yard at the moment. Notwhatiam can’t be discounted either as the form of his recent third to Midnight Shadow has since been franked with that horse winning well at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Perfect Man and Lungarno Palace have solid form that can see them go well but I’ll stick with KEEPER HILL (e/w), who ran well in a competitive race at Cheltenham last time out to be second. He’s 3lbs higher but connections put the useful Harry Teal on to claim 5lbs to offset that. This will be his third run back from a break so should also be hitting boiling point very soon. The Greatrex yard are a bit in-and-out at the moment but I’ll still take a chance on him. Of those at bigger prices the Neil King and Phil Middleton yards both have good records with their hurdlers at the track so Oh Land Abloom and Holly Bush Henry are worth a look in the market – especially the last-named as Richard Johnson has been booked to ride.

Kempton: A Hot Renewal Of The Lanzarote Hurdle…….


Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RUK/ITV)

2.05 – 32Red Casino Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Placed 2nd or 3rd last time out
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
4/5 – Had won at least 4 times over fences
4/5 – Winning favourites
4/5 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting

3/5 – Had won over fences at the track
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 11/4
Waiting Patiently won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2017 & 2016
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014
Nicky Henderson has a 30% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 28% record with his chasers at the track
Alan King is just 3 from 39 (8%) with her chasers at the track


Waiting Patiently misses the race so that certainly gives the others a better chance. We can expect Speredek to take them along from the front and even though he should make a bold bid he’ll probably be setting the race up for one of three – Black Corton, Charbel or Top Notch. Of that trio, Black Corton seems to have a bit to prove at the moment after being pulled up at Newbury in the Ladbrokes Gold Trophy last month and is now winless from this last four – but he’s the only course winner in the field so can’t be ruled out. Top Notch returned with a fair third over hurdles in the Long Walk three weeks ago but has won 7 times (from 11) over fences so is just as good over the bigger obstacles. The Henderson yard also took this in 2016 and 2017, plus also have a 30% record in at the track with their chasers – he’s a big player. However, the Kim Bailey-trained CHARBEL is rated the same as Top Notch but a recent 8 length win in the Peterborough Chase was a top effort and prior to that ran Politologue to ½ a length at Ascot. The rating suggests there will be nothing between them but based on the form he’s shown this season Charbel just edges it for me.

2.40 – Unibet Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

17/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
15/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
14/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
12/17 – Had never won a hurdles race over 2m4f or longer before
12/17 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
11/17 – Irish (6) or French (5) bred
10/17 – Carried 10-11 or less
10/17 – Aged 6 years-old
9/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Had run at Kempton before (5 won)
5/17 –  Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Nick Williams
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (37 runnings) 32 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1

Erik Le Rouge is the only course and distance winner in the field so is one for the shortlist. He’s won all three of his starts this term and looks a real improver for the Jane Williams yard. It won’t, however, be easy carrying 11st 10lbs. The Gary Moore yard have won this race three times in the past and in Kloud Gate they looked have another big chance. This 7 year-old has won his last two in decent fashion and looks to have more to come. However, he’s no real value in the market and a 12lb hike in the ratings looks a tad harsh. He’s a player, but will require more. Lord Napier and Cotswold Way are others to consider but with Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls yards also having good records in the race their 6 year-old runners – DOUX PRETENDER and DARLING MALTAIX – are the ones I’m interested in – 10 of the last 17 winners were 6 years-olds. The first-named won his return race this season at Ascot and wasn’t disgraced at Cheltenham last time out (5th). That run came over 3m, but he clearly didn’t quite see out the trip so the drop back to 2m5f is a huge plus and he can go close. Darling Malatrix won well last time at Ascot and despite a 12lbs rise won with plenty in-hand. He travelled really well into the race that day and was clearly suited to that first time over this 2m5f trip. Jockey Lorcan Williams gets on well with the horse and can claim 5lbs too, while the Nicholls yard continue to have their horses in good order. 

3.15 – Unibet Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

Just six previous runnings
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Had run at the track before
5/6 – Unplaced last time out
4/6 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
4/6 – Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
5/6 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
5/6 – Carried 11-0 or more
5/6 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
4/6 – Placed favourites
2/6 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/5 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 6 is 5/1
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014 & 2016

Course winner Josses Hill, from the in-form Nicky Henderson yard, and Barney Dwan, who sports the first-time cheekpieces, can go well, but Ballykan was a decent second in the race 12 months ago and is actually a pound lower this time so looks to also have a big chance with his recent return run (second) at Fakenham a solid effort. Yes, he’s got a touch of the seconds at the moment after being runner-up in his last three starts but that also tells us he’s a solid performer that should also be a lot better for that last run as it came off a break. Glen Rocco and Bally Longford are others to consider.

3.45 – Unibet Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m ITV4

10/10 – Had won over at least 2m hurdles before
10/10 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
10/10 – Aged 6 or older
8/10 – Favourites that finished in the top 2
8/10 – Aged 6 years-old
8/10 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
7/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Finished 4th or better last time out
5/10 – Irish bred
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Returned a double-figure price
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/10 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2

Eddiemaurice and Oakley were both good winners last time out so head here in form, while the Ian Williams yard have a decent 26% strike-rate with their hurdlers at the track so their consistent Speed Company enters calculations too. However, DINO VELVET comes from the Alan King yard that won this in 2017 and he I expect him to have improved from his recent fifth here as that was only his second run back from a break and is also a pound lower. The consistent Speed Company comes from a yard (Ian Williams) that often do well at the track with their hurdlers (26%), but their overall form is not great at the moment, while being the only course and distance winner in the field then Magic Dancer must have a squeak too.

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team