TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 12th Oct 2019

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 12th Oct 2019

 

  • NEWMARKET: We Unravel The Tricky Cesarewitch……….
  • YORK: The ITV Cameras Head To The Knavesmire………
  • TRAINERS-QUOTES: Terri Rules at Kempton…………

Hi,

So, it wasn’t to be for Enable in the Arc last Sunday – the sticky Longchamp ground just found her out in the end, but it was still a gallant effort to be second and she’s certainly given racing fans plenty to cheer about over the years.

It wasn’t all bad though, as we did manage to give winners the Arc winner – Waldgeist (1st 131/10) – as the Andrew Fabre runner was our main danger in the race. We hope you were on!

Anyway, enough reflection and let’s move on to this weekend.

The ITV cameras are heading to York and Newmarket this Saturday to take in with seven races across the two venues.

At Newmarket, the G1 Dewhurst Stakes is one of the highlights as all eyes will be in the unbeaten Godolphin colt – Pinatubo – who looks a real star in the making. We’ve also got the key trends and stats for the 31-runner Cesarewitch Handicap at HQ – we’ve got the race down to three, so be sure to take a look below.

Then up at York there are three LIVE races to enjoy that include the Rockingham Stakes and the Coral Sprint Trophy – a race the Kevin Ryan yard have won for the last two seasons!

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all the key trends for the LIVE ITV races.

Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend

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Terri Rules at Kempton…………….It was a gutsy display from the Lee Carter-trained Terri Rules (16/1) at Kempton on Wednesday night. The TQ faithful will know this horse likes to come late and has been a tad unlucky in it’s races recently. But the return to Kempton – a track she’s run well at in the past was a good move by connections. Hopefully the handicapper won’t be too harsh on the horse as she only got home by a short head.  

“Terri Rules – The draw beat her last time out at Chelmsford but actually still did okay to be 5th and only beaten 2 1/2 lengths. Same mark here today and draw 9 okay as hold-up performer. Will need the breaks to come but been running well without winning of late so with a bit of luck will be finishing well – each-way.”

1st 16/1 Lee Carter

 

Charlie Could Have Another Good One On His Hands……………Experience certainly won the day for the Charlie Fellowes-trained King Carney at Nottingham on Wednesday. This 2 year-old got the job done by 2 lengths in the end, on what was his third run on the track. He looks another nice progressive sort and it’s great seeing the Fellowes camp attracting more and more owners now – we are sure it won’t be long before they get a few really smart ones thrown their way.

“King Carney – Ran well at Newcastle (2nd) but bumped into a good horse. The step up to a mile should suit and he will have no problem with the ground. Hopefully he can put his experience to good use. Each-way.”

1st 5/1 Charlie Fellowes

 

TQ Horse To Note………………………………..In a new feature, we highlight one horse that ran over the last week or so that we think should be noted. This week the horse in question is the Gary Moore-trained BRAMBLEDOWN, who was second at Ludlow on Wednesday. This 3 year-old hurdler caught the eye at Plumpton two runs back (2nd) and again travelled well into the race this midweek but just got outpaced at the end by an improving Dan Skelton runner. The winner might be above average but it was still a decent run from Gary’s horse and it might just be that a slight step up in trip from 2m will be the order of the day next. Either way he looks a winner waiting to happen.

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USE THE TQ INFO TO BACK OR LAY – Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

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Just a sample of some recent winning quotes……………

“Cap St Vincent – Did well for us last season – winning twice over fences and ended with a fair third in a nice race at Sandown. Has got stronger over the summer and looking forward to getting going with him again. Seems to prefer the better ground that he should get here and the slightly longer trip should be within range too. No matter what will improve for the run as it’s been 300ish days since his last, but is fit and well, so looks to have an each-way chance. 1st 6/1 Tim Vaughan

 

“Terri Rules – The draw beat her last time out at Chelmsford but actually still did okay to be 5th and only beaten 2 1/2 lengths. Same mark here today and draw 9 okay as hold-up performer. Will need the breaks to come but been running well without winning of late so with a bit of luck will be finishing well – each-way.”

1st 16/1 Lee Carter

 

“Moxy Mares has most of his strongest form on soft ground, although this might be even softer than he would like! He has a lot of weight in the line up, so we have offset 5lbs with Kevin’s claim, which should help especially in the ground. If he has a true gallop then again we hope he has a small e/w chance.”

3rd 16/1 Mark Loughnane

 

“King Carney – Ran well at Newcastle (2nd) but bumped into a good horse. The step up to a mile should suit and he will have no problem with the ground. Hopefully he can put his experience to good use. Each-way.”

1st 5/1 Charlie Fellowes

 

“Not difficult to make a case for BRAMBLEDOWN who delighted me with her second at Plumpton just over two weeks ago on her hurdling debut. BRAMBLEDOWN was fit from a flat campaign over the summer and she came out of the Plumpton race well and I would hope she could improve from her first hurdling experience to give her solid claims today. Notoriously difficult to judge some of the competitors lining up today on their hurdling debuts but I can be confident BRAMBLEDOWN is straight enough if good enough.”

2nd 6/1 Gary Moore

 

“Red Gunner has ran a few solid races on the fast ground over the summer and remains in good heart at home. He hasn’t tried the 1m2f trip on the AW, but it should suit him from his run on turf over this distance. We have left the cheek pieces off him this time as he seemed to run a bit keen with them on & we are hopeful of a small e/w chance.”

3rd 14/1 Mark Loughnane

 

“Anglo Saxson – Has improved with every race to date and went so close to winning at Yarmouth last time out. He has run well at this track before and a mark of 75 in this handicap for the first time seems like a fair starting point. Decent each-way chance.”

3rd 3/1 (from 6/1) Charlie Fellowes

 

“Wax And Wane – Has some fair flat form to his name and despite not running as well on hurdles debut at Warwick last December is better than that. That was only his first run for us but we’ve given him plenty of time since and feel we know the horse a lot better now. Doesn’t look the best of races and won’t mind the soft ground – has won on heavy on the flat. Should go well – each-way.”

2nd 11/2 Tim Vaughan

 

“Chamomile – Step up in trip should suit and the drop in grade will help too. Didn’t get much luck in her novice races so hoping that has worked out with a lenient mark here on handicap debut.”

1st 7/1 Daniel Kubler

 

“Clara Peeters – Think the handcapper is making life tough for CLARA PEETERS. She ran a very honest race last time out when placed and got penalised another 2lbs for her effort. Hopefully the ground will be drying out at Newmarket as I doubt would want it too soft – however, the drop back in trip just may help if the going is tacky. e/w”

2nd 8/1 Gary Moore

 

“Teruntum Star – Nice recruit to the yard – only second run here today, but does need to recapture it’s old form. Continues to drop down the handicap though and is now 4lbs lower than last win – on a plus, will love the soft ground and the Ascot track will suit. Can also ignore that last run as it came on ground way too quick. Has been working much better since and as I say the softer conditions here will help. Overall a tough race and capable on his best form and hopeful of a much better run from last time. Small e/w at a price.”

3rd 40/1 Dave Griffiths

 

“NEFF has had a few runs on the flat over the summer and had a win at Lingfield early in the season. Has schooled well and if he takes to hurdling NEFF couuld put on a bold show. I like to think NEFF is fit from the flat so that will help too. The Snowden horse looks the one to beat, but with little depth to the race might be some small e/w value in ours.”

1st 16/1 Gary Moore

 

“Chapmanshype has been very progressive this summer – winning the last twice – and although this is a huge step up in class and is 8lbs higher he’s been doing things nicely and should have more to come. I’d like to think he can be very competitive once again. He would not want too much rain though.”

1st 7/4 Jamie Snowden

 

“Champagne Mondays – Below-par last time out at Catterick but the return to the AW is a certain plus with both career wins coming on the AW, including one here. We’ve freshened him up with 1 1/2 months off and returns on a mark that is 6lbs lower than his last win here. Needs to bounce back, but is certainly capable and could easily nick a place at a price if doing so. Small e/w 1 1/2 stars.”

3rd 20/1 Scott Dixon

You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

 

SATURDAY LIVE ITV RACING FREE TIPS AND TRENDS

Newmarket: Key Trends To Unravel The Cesarewitch Handicap…..

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.20 – Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV

12/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
11/12 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Won no more than twice before
10/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/12 – Placed favourites
10/12 – Had won over at least 1m before
9/12 – Drawn in stalls 2-5 (inc)
7/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Came from stalls 2 or 3
6/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Ran at Leicester last time out
2/12 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/12 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/12 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
0/12 – Winners from stall 1
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the last two runnings
Irish-trained winners have won 3 of the last 4
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

TQ VERDICT: A rare 2 year-old runner for the Alan King yard – Tritonic – that are more famed for their jumpers, but after two impressive wins at Ffos Las and Newbury this colt has to be considered. However, this has been a race that the Godolphin and Aidan O’Brien teams have done well in of late and they look to dominate again here. The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin run Volkan Star, who won well at Goodwood last time out. This is a step up in trip, but breeding suggests he’ll be fine, and with some fancy Group One entries looks well thought of – he can go well. But the O’Brien yard have won the last two runnings of this race so their MYTHICAL gets the nod. This Camelot colt was very impressive when winning his maiden by 8 ½ lengths at Gowan Park last month and holds a Derby entry for next season too. The longer trip should bring out more too and any rain won’t be an issue having won on soft ground last time. Of the rest, the Gosden yard won this in 2016 and run Miss Yoda, who is unbeaten from two races – Frankie rides and looks another for the shortlist, while MAX VEGA was a good winner at Pontefract last time out over a mile and with the expected improvement after just two career runs looks the sort that cane make the leap up in grade.

 

2.55 – Dubai Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

14/14 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
13/14 – Had won over at least 7f before
13/14 – Had raced at least twice before
12/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/14 – Placed favourites
11/14 – Won between 1-2 times before
10/14 – Won last time out
10/14 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Foaled in Feb or March
9/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Godolphin winners
2/14 – Ridden by William Buick
2/14 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
1/14 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 3-5
The last 2 winners came from stall 9
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

Note: From 2009 back the race was staged at ASCOT, while the 2005 running was at Salisbury

TQ VERDICT: Most of the big yards on show here and with a 23% record with their 2 year-olds at the track, the Charlie Appleby and Aidan O’Brien yards should be respected. O’Brien runs PERSIA, who got off the mark at the second attempt in impressive fashion at Galway. That came on soft ground so any more rain will be fine and with some fancy G1 entries is clearly held in high regard. Frankie and John Gosden team-up with Cherokee Trail, who has done little wrong in winning his two starts to date, but I just feel he made hard work of things last time at Newbury and this will be harder still. Godolphin run two – Al Suhail and Military March – of the two the last-named might just have the more improvement with just one run. It’s hard to ignore the Roger Varian runner – Molatham too after winning the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes last time out at Donny and the step up from 7f to a mile will help. He can go well, but might nit be much value. The danger to the pick can come from the Haggas runner, JOHAN (e/w), who won easily by 6 lengths at Musselburgh last time out over 7f. Give in the ground is fine and is another that should like the step up in trip. He could be the e/w value in the race. The final one to note is the unbeaten Mark Johnston runner – Dontaskmeagain – who has don little wrong in winning his two starts to date. More is needed here but the stable’s juveniles are always tough individuals so would not be a shock if he ran better than his odds suggest.

3.30 – Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

17/17 – Raced at least 3 times that season
15/17 – Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley)
15/17 – Placed in their last race
13/17 – Won over 7f previously
12/17 – Favourites placed
12/17 – Won at least 3 times previously
12/17 – Won their last race
12/17 – Won a Group race previously
10/17 – Raced at either Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or the Curragh (6) last time out
10/17 – Won by an Irish-based stable
10/17 – Foaled in either Feb or March
8/17 – Favourites that won
6/17 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
6/17 – Placed horses that came from stall 2
5/17 – Returned 20/1 or bigger
5/17 – Trained by Jim Bolger
5/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (6 wins in total)
5/17 – Ridden by Kevin Manning
5/17 – Finished in the top 2 in the 2000 Guineas the following season
2/17 – Won the Epsom Derby the following season
1/17 – Winners that came from stall 1
The Irish have won 10 of the last 13 runnings
3 of the last 9 winners came from stall 3
Aidan O’Brien has trained 3 of the last 4 winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

TQ VERDICT: The O’Brien runner Wichita would be a warm order here if a certain PINATUBO wasn’t in the race. Wichita was an easy winner over course and distance of the G3 Somerville Stakes last month and still looks a horse with a big future. However, Pinatubo has been the star juvenile of the season so far and is rated 14lbs higher than Wichita already. This Godolphin colt has now won all his five previous starts and the latest of those was an easy 9 length romp of the G1 National Stakes at the Curragh last month. He’s entered in next season’s 2000 Guineas here and another win here will further cement his place at the top of that market. The likes of Arizona and Positive are others to consider but a place looks the best they can hope for.

4.10 – Emirates Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV

16/17 – Aged 4 or older
14/17 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
14/17 – Had run within the last 2 months
14/17 – Carried 9-2 or less
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/17 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
11/17 – Finished 4th or better last time out
11/17 – Aged 5 or older
11/17 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
10/17 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
10/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/17 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
8/17 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
8/17 – Had run at the track before
8/17 – Placed favourites
8/17 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
8/17 – Won by a NH trainer
4/17 – Winning mares
3/17 – Winners from stall 1
3/17 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
3/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 18/1
Just 2 winning favourites since 1993

 

TQ VERDICT: 31 runners here for another ultra-competitive running of the Cesarewitch Handicap, but at least we’ve some decent trends to take into account. With 16 of the last 17 winners aged 4 or older then the 3 year-olds in the race – Land Of Oz, Rochester House, Ranch Hand Summer Moon and Themaxwecan all have this against them.  Of that bunch the Prescott runner – Land Of Oz – could be the handicap blot in the race with only 8-1 to carry and he’s now won 5 of his last 6 races, including the Cesarewitch Trial for this race here back in September. He’s rated just 4lbs higher here and with winning form on all ground types then he’ll be a dangerous horse to rule out – those looking to take him on will have 30 other runners on their side this time though (only beat 7 last time), while draw 30 might not be ideal with 10 of the last 17 winners coming from stalls 13 or lower. Prescott also runs TIMOSHENKO (e/w) though and this 4 year-old returned from a long break to beat Seinesational by a neck at Goodwood last time out. He’s 5lbs higher for that but has now won all his last 6 races and is another typical Prescott handicap improver that would have had this race as a target for a while. He’s been freshened-up with around 8-9 weeks off again, but is clearly a horse that likes to run fresh, while draw 12 looks a good starting berth. The powerful Willie Mullins yard won this race last year and run Stratum, Buildmeupbuttercup and GREAT WHITE SHARK (e/w). All three are respected, and with Frankie, who last won this race in 2011, riding Buildmeupbuttercup, this 5 year-old is sure to be popular. But he’s been well-supported all week and the value looks to have gone now – he’s way too short for a race with 31 runners in for me. However, their Great White Shark could be the better value. This 5 year-old has been running well over hurdles of late but won the last time she races on the flat (Galway, July) and William Buick catches the eye in the saddle. This 5 year-old gets in here with just 8-9 to carry in weight and draw 10 looks likely to give him options. Of the rest, the likes of Ranch Hand has been popular in the betting, but at the age of just 3 might be vulnerable so the Alan King runner – WHO DARES WINS (e/w) – who often goes well in these big-field staying handicaps might be worth an interest too. He was 4th in the Marsh Cup back in July but was a cracking 4th in the G1 Prix Du Cadran at Longchamp last Saturday and as long as that race hasn’t taken too much out of him would have a say on that form. The useful Angus Villiers has also been booked to ride and he claims a handy 7lbs from the saddle to bring his top-weight of 9-10 down.

 

York: Three LIVE Races From The Knavesmire………

York Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.40 – coral.co.uk Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

16/16– Had raced within the last month
15/16 – Had won between 1 and 3 times before
13/16 – Foaled in March or later
13/16 – Had 4 or more runs that season
12/16 – Had never raced at York before
12/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
11/16 – Had won over 6f before
10/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Unplaced last time out
7/16 – Ran at either Redcar (5) or Newbury (2) last time out
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Winners from stall 2
4/16 – Filly winners
3/16 – Placed horses from stall 1
3/16 – Trained by Tim Easterby
3/16 – Ridden by David Allen
The  horse from stall 6 has won 4 of the last 9 runnings

TQ VERDICT: Some promising sorts on show here, including Stormy Girl, Misty Grey, Cobra Eye, Stone Circle and Huraiz but it’s hard to get away from the Tim Easterby runner – LAMPANG. The yard have actually won this race three times since 2012 too, including 12 months ago and this 2 year-old they’ve got this year looks likely to maintain that good record. He was green on debut but still ran on well in the closing stages at Carlisle to win well and then backed that up with a smooth success at Ripon last month. He took that by 5 lengths that day and looks the sort to have a lot more to come. Of the rest, Cobra Eye and Stormy Girl can do best of the rest.

3.15 – Smart Money’s On Coral Handicap (96 Plus Race) Cl2 1m2f88y ITV

Just six previous runnings
5/6 –  Returned 10/1 or shorter
4/6  – Aged 3 years-old
4/6 – Ridden by Franny Norton (2) or Adam Kirby (2)
0/6 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 3 winners came from stall 8

TQ VERDICT: Just the six previous runnings of this race but we are yet to have a winning favourite – this, therefore, might be deemed a negative for the John Gosden runner – Harrovian – who looks likely to go off as the market leader. The Mark Johnston yard took this race 12 months ago and have a decent chance with Victory Command and Dark Vision on their best form, but both head here off the back of below-par runs and would need to bounce back. Trainer Richard Fahey is just 10 from 147 with his 3 year-olds at the track so despite being a good winner last time out over course and distance a 6lb rise for that in this better race might find him out. Fahey also runs FOREST RANGER (e/w), who will find this ease in grade more to his liking and of the yards runners might be foolish to ignore back in a handicap – he’s one for the shortlist. The other one to have on side is BIG COUNTRY (e/w). This 6 year-old returned to form with a third in a Listed race at Ayr last time out and is another that should enjoy the drop back in grade. Connections have booked Mark Crehan to ride and claim 7lbs, plus he’s a horse that’s run well at the track before.

3.50 – Coral Sprint Trophy (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

16/16 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
16/16 – Had won at least 3 races before
15/16 – Had run at York before
15/16 – Had won a race over 6f before
14/16 – Had raced 6 or more times that season
12/16 – Aged 5 or younger
11/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/16 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
9/16 – Rated between 92 and 98
9/16 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
8/16 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
5/16 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/16 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (last 2 winners)
2/16 – Trained by Michael Dods
1/16 – Filly or mare winners
4 of the last 10 winners were ridden by a claiming apprentice
Major Jumbo (12/1) won the race in 2018
Teruntum Star (10/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

TQ VERDICT: Another tough sprint handicap to unravel here. With ALL of the last 16 winners running in the last 4 weeks then this will help knock some out – Air Raid and Bernardo O’Reilly. Having run at York is another plus, as is having 6 or more races this season. Being aged 5 or younger is another stat that knocks a few out – Ice Age, George Bowen, Alaadel, Louie De Palma, Lancelot Du Lac, Get Knotted, Intisaab, Gunmetal, Growl and Danzeno. The Haggas runner – Aplomb – has been well-supported all week and ticks a lot of boxes, but this 3 year-old is rated 9lbs higher than it’s last win and doesn’t look great value in a race with 21 other runners in. The consistent SUMMERGHAND (e/w) looks sure to run his race as always and is the first one to have on side. Draw 13 looks fine and he’s been knocking on the door in races like this of late. He was 4th in the Challenge Cup over 7f last Saturday but the return to 6f looks a positive. If might also be worth taking a chance on HEY JONESY (e/w) and STAXTON (e/w), who are more than capable of running well on their best form, despite the fact they’ve been running a bit below-par of late. The former – Hey Jonesy – also represents the winning stable of the last two years – Kevin Ryan – while his form at the track is decent 1-3-2-5. Staxton was 10th in the Ayr Gold Cup last time, but was actually only beaten 3 ¼ lengths and is a pound lower again here and off a mark of 97 is starting to look well-treated again.

 

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team