TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 15th Sept 2018

York Dante Stakes Free Tips and Key Trends

 

  • DONCASTER: Who’ll Land The Final Classic?
  • CHESTER: Two LIVE Races On The Roodee.…..
  • LEOPARDSTOWN: Irish Champion Stakes Trends……
  • TQ UPDATE: Charlie Collects On Carlisle Raid…..

 

Hi,

After a week off we are back with a bang this Saturday as it’s ST LEGER DAY up at Doncaster. Yes, it’s the final of the five English Classics today for the William Hill-sponsored St Leger and full marks to the John Gosden camp after confirming in the week that their unbeaten, and very promising, Lah Ti Dar would take her chance in the race.

Once the news broke on Wednesday the betting market was shaken-up dramatically with Lah Ti Dar disputing favouritism with the Aidan O’Brien-trained Kew Gardens. Okay, you can make a case for a few others, like Old Persian and Dee Ex Bee, but really this is all set-up to be a fascinating head-to-head between the first two in the betting – Gosden will be looking for his fifth win in the race, while O’Brien will be seeking a sixth St Leger success.

Between the two trainers they’ve won 8 of the last 17 renewals!

We’ve three supporting races at Doncaster that include the Champagne Stakes and Park Stakes, plus the competitive Portland Handicap. While if that’s not enough the ITV cameras are also at Chester for two LIVE contests on the Roodee, plus it’s a huge few days across the Irish Sea for Champions Weekend – we take a look at the Champion Stakes at Leopardstown.

Wow – So, another top day to look forward to with LIVE races from Doncaster, including the already-mentioned William Hill St Leger, plus action at Chester and Leopardstown. As always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

 

Have a Great Weekend!

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes: Charlie Makes Carlisle Raid Pay……..

Some cracking info again this week – you can see a taster of just some of the successes below – but this week’s headline grabber was the Charlie Fellowes yard after sending three runners on the long trip north to Carlisle that resulted in a first, second and third! Divine Gift (3rd) and Mayfair Spirit (2nd) ran decent place races but it was their HAVERLAND that rewarded backers the most with an easy 12/1 win at the Cumbrian venue. Top Stuff.

We also saw easy wins for the Daniel Kubler camp with their Nyala, who can be expected to go up in class from here. Henry Oliver’s Murray Mount was a nice winner over the sticks up at Worcester, while the Mick Appleby team advertised their talents once again by getting Saaheq to record an easy debut win for the yard up at Doncaster on Wednesday – this horse won with bundles in-hand and looks one to have on your radar next time!

 

Here’s just a sample of recent winners…………………

“El Borracho – Had a solid season and still looked progressive up to last start when he never got going at Epsom. Not without a chance down in grade if he can leave that one poor effort behind him.” 2nd 14/1 SIMON DOW

“Mayfair Spirit – Has been gelded since his last start and seems ready to go again. Handicap debut here too. We think he will handle the ground but you never really know until they try it in a race. Hopeful of a decent run.” 2nd 9/2 CHARLIE FELLOWES

“Saaheq – Very open-looking race. Another having it’s first run for the yard after being bought out of the Brian Meehan stable. This will be his fifth career run and despite not winning yet has shown a decent level of form. Shows plenty of speed at home so we thought we’d drop him back to 5f here as he’s been running over 7f and 1m and not quite seeing it out. Any rain is fine too. We’ll know a bit more were we are after this and after over a year off then no matter what will come on for the run but a horse we like and seems fit and well for his return.” 1st 7/2 MICK APPLEBY

“Haverland – Ran poorly last time but the race didn’t work out right as he was slow away from the gates and then got pushed out onto the worst ground in the straight. He’s better than that! Open race but certainly capable of being in the shake-up. Each-way.” 1st 12/1 CHARLIE FELLOWES

“Pearl Acclaim – Won here three starts back so the return to the track is a help. Only 3lbs higher for that win and Phil Dennis, who rode that day too, rides again. Draw is ok in 3 and won’t mind the ground. Is turned out quickly after just 4 days but takes his racing well. Race probably not run to suit last time at Musselburgh so had excuses, so in what looks an open race we feel he’s got e/w claims at a nice price.”2nd 11/1 DAVE GRIFFITHS

“Sellingallthetime – Loves it here at Catterick so that’s a big plus. Has a bit to find with The Resdev Way, who was 7 lengths in front of us last time but we are much better off at the weights this time. Amateur riders’ race so not a contest to get too involved in but conditions are fine and his overall consistent course form much give us a fair e/w chance at a nice price. “ 3rd 8/1 MICK APPLEBY

“Murray Mount – Returns to hurdles on a workable mark and loves it here being a past CD winner. Putting his best foot forward should be in the mix (e/w) in what looks a poor race. Hands and Heels contest – Jason Dixon rides and takes off a handy 3lbs.” 1st 9/2 HENRY OLVIER

“Albert Boy – Gutsy winner at Thirsk two starts back but failed to follow that up on the fibresand at Southwell last time. Back on the turf will help as all 4 career wins have been on the grass. Only 3lbs higher than Thirsk win and Paul Hanagan an obvious plus in the saddle. Trip and ground are fine, but any rain would help. Will try and make another bod bid up with the pace – first run at the track, but should suit his style of racing. Open contest, but decent place claims.” 2nd 9/1 SCOTT DIXON

“Akkapenko – He ran a great race at Stratford last time though it’s difficult to know exactly how strong that race was, the third horse was second last time but by 14 lengths. His no world beater but seems to be on an upward curve and hopefully he’ll be in the money today as well.” 3rd 9/2 TIM VAUGHAN

“Nyala : Looks a good opportunity for her to get a deserved win on the board after a string of close efforts recently. We keep the hood on and William keeps the ride.” 1st 11/10 DANIEL KUBLER

“TWENTY TWENTY had a recent run on flat recently which I hope has brought him on fitness wise. Probably best watched but he is related to some respectable hurdle performers so I hope that there will be improvement to come.” 1st 16/1 GARY MOORE

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!

Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

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You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

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DONCASTER: Who’ll Land The Final Classic?

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.50 – William Hill Portland Handicap Cl2 5f140y ITV

15/16 – Carried 8-12 or more
14/16 – Won over 6f before
13/16 – Had run 5 or more times that season
13/16 – Came from a double-figure stall
12/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/16 – Winner rated between 95 and 101
11/16 – Won 4 or more times in their career
11/16 – Run at Doncaster previously
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/16 – Unplaced Favourites
8/16 – Placed in their last race
7/16 – Winners aged 5 years-old (inc 7 of last 10 years)
6/16 – Raced in that season’s Great St Wilfrid (Ripon)
4/16 – Raced at Ripon last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won by the Kevin Ryan yard
3/16 – Won last time out
Spring Loaded (12/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

TQ VERDICT: 22 runners heading to post here so a tough opener to unravel. However, with 13 of the last 16 winners coming from a double-figure stall then this can hopefully help to knock nine of the runners out – Tis Marvellous (1), The Daley Express (2), Savalas (3), Powerallied (4), Muscika (5), Golden Apollo (6), Roundhay Park (7), Wentworth Falls (8) and Holmeswood (9) are the ones that will be trying to overcome the negative low-draw stat. With 15 of the last 16 winners carrying 8-12 or more this is another key trend to have onside – this would mean we can focus on the top 13 on the card. 13 of the last 16 winners had raced five or times that season, while 12 of the last 16 were rated between 95-101. Taking all those main trends into account then the seven that standout are A MOMENTOFMADNESS, MARNIE JAMES, ORVAR, ENCRYTED, DUKE OF FIRENZE, BLUE DE VEGA and OPEN WIDE. Of those, A MOMENTOFMADNESS was sixth in the race 12 months ago, but is actually 4lbs higher in the ratings this time so might have a bit to prove off this mark. The 3 year-old Marnie James is yet to run here and with 11 of the last 16 winners having tasted the Doncaster track before then this would be a negative – while the last 3 year-old to win this race was back in 2000. It’s actually been the 5 year-olds that have the best recent record – winning 7 of the last 11. Baasedon this age stat Encrypted is another 3 year-old that is overlooked so that leaves us with ORVAR, DUKE OF FIRENZE, BLUE DE VEGA and OPEN WIDE and the four main picks. The 5 year-old Orvar was a good winner here over 5f last time out and despite being 6lbs higher heads here in great order – draw 19 looks fine too. Duke Of Firenze was down the field in this race last year (9th) but is a full 12lbs lower this time. He’s not getting any younger at 9 year-olds but is starting to look well-handicapped and Jim Crowley is a top jockey booking. Blue De Vega has been running well of late and will have the services of Frankie Dettori, who’s won this race twice in the past (2000 & 2003). Finally, Open Wide will come out of draw 13 but this 4 year-old is another that a top jockey – Andrea Atzeni – has been booked to ride and from his last 8 races has only been out of the first three twice.

 

2.25 – Alan Wood Plumbing Park Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

13/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
13/15 – Run 3 or more times that season
13/15 – Won 3 or more times before
12/15 – Won over 7f before
12/15 – Won a Group race previously
12/15 – Returned  7/1 or shorter
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Aged 4 or older
10/15 – Run at either Goodwood (5), Newbury (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
10/15 – Unplaced in their most recent race
7/15 – Placed horses from stall 1
6/15 – Had run at Doncaster before
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/15 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda
3 Irish-trained winners in the last 9 runnings
Acclaim (3/1) won the race in 2017
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: BRETON ROCK, who is now 8 year-old, won this race in 2016 and can be fancied to go close again. He’s the joint-highest rated in the field and has run some solid races in this grade already this season. With 11 of the last 15 winners aged 4 or older then the 3 year-olds in the race – Unfortunately and Raydiance – will have this to overcome. 13 of the last 15 winners had also raced at least three times that season so the other joint top-rated Mustashry, who has only raced twice this term, has this against him. Godolphin have a decent hand too with D’bai and Dutch Connection, however, both are horses that don’t seem to win as much as they should. So, the call here is the Ryan Moore-ridden OH THIS IS US to continue his winning form. This Richard Hannon runner won a fair handicap at Chester last time but was only beaten just over two lengths in the Group Two Celebration Mile the time before over a mile. However, the drop back to 7f looks a plus and he’s also one of just two proven course and distance winners in the field. He’s run here twice and been first and second so clearly likes the place.

3.00 – Howcroft Industrial Supplies Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV

16/17 – Returned  8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Won 1 or 2 times previously
14/17 – Favourites placed
14/17 – Had won over 7f before
13/17 – Won by a Feb or March foal
13/17 – Finished third or better last time out
10/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Run at Sandown, Newbury, York or t­­he Curragh last time out
8/17 – Raced 3 or more times that season
7/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Won by Godolphin
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/17 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard
2/17 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/17 – Won by the Charlie Appleby yard
2/17 – Won by the Saeed Bin Suroor yard
2/17 – Winners from stall 1
Seahenge (8/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/4
Note: 2005 renewal was a dead-heat

TQ VERDICT: The unbeaten Mark Johnston runner – Dark Vision – has looked a very decent horse and since his easy Vintage Stakes win at Glorious Goodwood has been snapped-up by Godolphin. He’s a big horse that seems to need every yard of this 7f trip and he looks sure to go close. However, it won’t be easy having to give away 3lbs to most of the others – including another unbeaten horse in TOO DARN HOT. This John Gosden-trained juvenile has won his only two starts in easy fashion and went into many a notebook last time with an easy 4 length win in the Group Three Solario Stakes at Sandown. He romped home by an easy 4 lengths that day and it’s no secret that connections think he could go to the very top. Frankie Dettori ride. Of the rest, Phoenix Of Spain is a fast improving sort that can go well too, while the Aidan O’Brien camp will be looking to follow-up their win in the race from last year with Cardini and Van Beethoven entered. Bye Bye Hong Kong makes up the field, but really this looks a fascinating match-up between the unbeaten pair of Dark Vision and Too Darn Hot – I’ll take the later to live up to his name and be the one that remains with his unbeaten record intact.

3.35 – William Hill St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m6f132y ITV

15/16 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Placed favourites
13/16 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
12/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had won a Group race before
12/16 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
11/16 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
10/16 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
10/16 – Winning distance of 1 length or more
10/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
9/16 – Officially rated 109 to 115
9/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/16 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (2 won it)
4/16 – USA-bred winners
4/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/16 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
3/16 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
2/16 – Ridden by William Buick
2/16 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/16 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won the race 6 times
Aidan O’Brien has trained 5 winners of the race
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: Another race that could easily develop into a match-up with Kew Gardens and LAH TI DAR the two horses in question. Yes, the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin have a fine record in the race (6 wins) and in Loxley and Old Persian they have live chances again. While the Epsom Derby runner-up Dee Ex Bee is a consistent and tough sort that has finished in the top three in 9 of his 11 career starts. He was just over 4 lengths behind Kew Gardens at Longchamp in July so will need to find a bit of improvement for the step up in trip. Since then Kew Gardens has run third in the Great Voltigeur over 1m4f so will need to reverse that form with the winner Old Persian, but you feel Kew Gardens is a better horse over this longer trip so would have every chance of doing so – 6 of the last 16 St Leger winners ran in that York race prior to heading here. Having said that, it’s still hard to get away from the Gosden runner – LAH TI DAR – and full marks to connections for running her here instead of other possible targets later in the season. Being a filly, she’ll get a handy 3lbs from Kew Gardens and she’ll also need to step up to this much higher graded race. She was last seen winning by an easy 10 lengths in a Listed race and with 12 of the last 16 St Leger winners having won at Group level she’ll need to overcome this stat. The Gosden yard also have a fine record in the race – winning it four times in total with the most recent being in 2011. This will also be her first try beyond 1m4f but she certainly wasn’t stopping over 1m4f last time and there is every reason to think she’ll be even better over this trip. Frankie rides and he’ll be looking for his sixth success in the race and his second for trainer John Gosden after the two teamed-up in 1996 with Shantou. I’ll take LAH TI DAR to live up to all the hype and hit the right St Leger notes!

 

CHESTER: Two LIVE Races On The Roodee……….

2.05 – Read Josephine Gordon Blog At Unibet.co.uk/blog Handicap (Cl3) (4yo+ 0-90) ITV

Just one previous running
– Trainer Kevin Ryan won last year’s race
– Trainer Andrew Balding has a 22% (+43) strike-rate with his older horses at the track
– Trainer Ian Williams is only 3 from 47 (6%) with his older horses at the track

TQ VERDICT: Just the one previous running of this race so not much to go on from the trends. The Andrew Balding yard do, however, have a decent 22% record at the track though so it might be worth taking a chance on their NIGHT OF GLORY (e/w). This 4 year-old is creeping back down the ratings after some lack-lustre runs of late but has run okay here at Chester in his last two starts to suggest he might be worth sticking with off this lower rating (3lbs lower than last time). Connections are also opting for the first-time blinkers here and the more experienced Martin Dwyer takes over in the saddle. Of the rest, the Ian Williams yard are only 3 from 47 with their older horses at the track so their Baydar makes little appeal. Captain Courageous and the only recent winner in the field – Ravenous – enter calculations, while Dr Marwan Koukash loves having winners at Chester so his quirky Suegioo can’t be discounted if in the mood.

 

 

2.40 – 32Red.com Stand Cup (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f66y ITV

12/12 – Didn’t win last time out
11/12 – Had won at least twice before
11/12 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/12 – Aged 5 or younger
10/12 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
9/12 – Had 2 or more runs that season
8/12 – Drawn in stall 3 or lower
8/12 – Won at Listed or Group class before
7/12 – Rated between 102-110
7/12 – Favourites that finished either 1st or 2nd
4/12 – Ran at York last time out
4/12 – Had run at Chester before
4/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Godolphin-owned winners
2/12 – Trained by Pat Chamings
Duretto (11/10 fav) won the race in 2017
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5 or lower

TQ VERDICT: Only 8 runners here but half the field are proven course winners here – Blakeney Point, Gabrial, Hochfield and Mountain Bell. All four are respected but this could be another for the Andrew Balding yard, who have a decent 26% record at the track with their 3 year-olds – they run SHAILENE (e/w). This filly gets in with just 8-4 to carry and with that gets 13lbs from the top four on the card. She was a fair third in a Listed race last time out at Hamilton but ran on well that day to suggest this longer trip will suit much better. Prior to that she was an easy 6 length winner at Chelmsford over 1m2f so knows how to win a race, plus with only five career runs should have more to come. Oh, the Balding yard also won this race 12 months ago. Mountain Bell was also the 2016 winner of this race so commands respect but has rather lost it’s way of late so needs to bounce back. 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or younger so this is another plus for the selection but a negative for the likes of Gabrial (9) and Sir Chauvelin (6).

 

 

LEOPARDSTOWN: O’Brien Eyes Eighth Irish Champion Stakes Win….

6:35 – QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes (Group One) 1m2f

 

Irish Champion Stakes Betting Trends

16/16 – Previous Group 1 winner
15/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Won 4 or more times before
14/16 – Had won over 1m2f before
13/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Ran at York, Sandown or Ascot last time out
12/16 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
11/16 – Rated 120+
11/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Trained in Ireland
9/16 – Aged 3 years-old
8/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Previous course winners
6/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
6/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Returned odds-on
2/16 – Won the Coral Eclipse last time out
2/16 – Trained by John Oxx
2/16 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 9/2

TQ VERDICT: A decent renewal of the Irish Champions Stakes and really this looks set to be fought out between old rivals Saxon Warrior and ROARING LION. The pair have met three times already this season, in the Epsom Derby, Coral Eclipse and Juddmonte International, and with the John Gosden-trained Roaring Lion coming out on top each time then it’s hard to get away from his chance of doing so again. There were 5 lengths between the two last time out at York and with this 1m2f trip looking to be Roaring Lion’s best distance then he’s taken to confirm that form and give his trainer his third win in this race. So far around this trip Roaring Lion is 3-from-3 with his only defeat in his last four races when being upped to 1m4f in the Epsom Derby. The French raider – Study Of Man – could be the fly in the ointment but would need to improve on his 6 length third to Knight To Behold last time out. Lincoln winner Addeybb comes over from the William Haggas yard but won’t find it easy having to give weight away to the 3 year-olds and is also not proven over this trip. Of the rest, O’Brien’s Rhododendron certainly has the form to take this if in the mood but seems to be a bit of an in-and-out character these days so is not one to totally trust. I’ll stick with Roaring Lion to continue his domination over this trip and land his third Group One of the season.

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team