TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 18th Aug 2018

2018 Sprint Cup Free Tips and Trends (Sat 8th Sept)

 

  • RIPON: The Great St Wilfrid Takes Centre Stages………
  • NEWBURY: Four LIVE Races To Enjoy………
  • NEWMARKET: One Race From HQ Too …………….
  • TQ UPDATE: Loughnane On The Mark………..

 

Hi,

This weekend is probably not one of the highlights on the racing calendar but try telling that to Ripon racecourse as with their Great St Wilfrid card this Saturday is their busiest day of the year. We take a look at their big handicap in more detail below but there are certainly some key trends that will hopefully help whittle down the runners. We’ve also a good card at Newbury that includes four LIVE races and the Group Three Hungerford Stakes – a race trainer Aidan O’Brien will be trying to win for the first time today. Plus, with one LIVE race from Newmarket then there still a lot to get stuck into.

Don’t worry though, as the action ramps-up a few notches next midweek with the four-day York Ebor Meeting (Weds-Sat) and we’ve already got the main races covered with key trends and stats on our blog page here. Take a look and stay ahead of the game!

So, a bumper day to look forward to with seven races spread across three meeting and as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

 

Have a Great Weekend!

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes: Loughnane on the Mark………………..

Another decent week with winners for Tim Vaughan (Eric The Third), Gary Moore (Nanny Pats), Gay Kelleway (Capla Demon) and Charlie Fellowes (Treasure Me) – not to mention a bundle of nice place returns (see below) but this week we’ve give then headline to the MARK LOUGHNANE camp after they fired in top 14/1 and 8/1 winners on the AW.

Yes, Pensax Boy (14/1) powered up the Wolverhampton straight on Monday night to reward backers at a tasty price, while they followed-up on Wednesday night with their Precision Prince (1st 8/1) outbattling his rivals at Kempton – a win that looked even better as the horse had to overcome a wide draw too!

Top stuff all round!

Here’s just a sample of recent winners…………………

“Precision Prince is having his first run in a nursery today, so we are more hopeful that this will be his grade. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have a very good draw & obviously the surface is an unknown so there is still a lot more to learn today. With this being one of the first lower grade nurseries there are numerous horses which are in the same boat as us, but we are hopeful we may have a small e/w shout if he can get into a good position from his bad draw.” MARK LOUGHNANE 1ST 8/1

“Nanny Pat’s – Very tough race for this time of the year. Has been working well at home which hopefully will give her every chance.” GARY MOORE 1ST 5/2

“Eric The Third – Having a good time of it of late – returns after 3-4 weeks off after a busy spell that saw him win twice and run second twice. Off the same mark as last time (2nd) but the big chance here is the step up in trip. We are up to 2m5f here but on a plus he’s a course winner when dotting-up by 15 lengths here in June. Think he’ll get the extra yardage and jumps well. Only fifth run over fences so should have more to come and hopefully the longer trip will give us more options.” TIM VAUGHAN 1ST 4/1

“Mia Tesoro – Has got her perfect conditions today and I think she will love the track – afterall, she is a past winner here. It’s another solid Listed race but we know she will put 120% in with the ground fine too. Bit to find at the weights with some but has her conditions and won’t lack for trying at a venue we know she likes. Each-way” CHARLIE FELLOWES 2ND 16/1

“Northern Beau: Running well of late – placed the last three times, albeit well back in each race. Hoping the step up from 2m4f to this 2m7f will eke out a bit more – we think it will. Ground is fine too and the easy track will help him getting the longer trip. The Skelton horse to beat but we’ve got fair place claims and hopefully if coping with the longer trip that will open up more races for us.” MICHAEL SCUDAMORE 3RD 9/1

“Hint Of Grey – If being able to act on the track, should have every chance as seems very well at home and doesn’t look the best of races.” GARY MOORE 3RD 7/1

“Art Of Swing – First run for us after coming from the Gary Moore yard – settled in well but we’ll learn a lot from this. A big horse but also an experienced sort though with 14 career runs (1 win). Claimed after running a fair second at Wolves that last day over this trip but back into a handicap here – came from way back that day so that was encouraging. Well drawn in 3 and has run ok here at the track in the past. In fact, it’s only career win came here at the track. As I say, we’ll find out more here but a poor race and even though we’ve got 10st to carry we’ve the in-form Rossa Ryan on that claims 3lbs off it’s back so really racing off 57. Competitive for the grade though but really should be picking up races like this – hopeful of a solid each-way run.” LEE CARTER 2ND 8/1

“Bubbly – Made a lovely debut at Wolverhampton a few weeks ago and if she improved from that – as all of mine do – then she should go close.” CHARLIE FELLOWES 3RD 13/2

“Carnwennan – Ran much better at Lingfield last time on a track that wouldn’t suit. Today’s test will be much better for him and hopefully he can improve again. However, in what looks a good maiden he needs to. The Charlton and Palmer horses looks the obvious ones but if all 8 run then small place chance. Jim Crowley rides. CHARLIE FELLOWS 3RD 8/1

“Pensax Boy disappointed last time out – however, the ground had gone soft and he never seemed to raise a gallop on it – so we will draw a line through that run. He won this race last year and in general his AW form is stronger than his turf, so we are hoping that he bounces back today. He is working well at home, so the main negative today is that he has to give a lot of weight away to the improving 3 year olds! Hopeful of a good run and at around 11-1 has a small e/w chance” MARK LOUGHNANE 1ST 14/1

“Treasure Me: Is a filly I have always liked – however, she has been disappointing on the track. I feel like he has been running her over too far so hopefully this drop in trip and the addition of cheekpieces (first time) should do the trick perfectly so see her run a lot better. Each-way. “CHARLIE FELLOWES 1ST 7/1

“Capla Demon – Well after last run and has improved for that as it came off a 2 month break. Back on the turf here for just his second run on the grass but the rain has come in time. Likes to get his toe in and we’ve also got a 7lb claimer on today to take a bit more weight off. Only 7 runners, so only 2 places up for grabs now but with the rain coming feel we’ve got an e/w chance.” GAY KELLEWAY 1ST 10/1

 

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!

Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

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You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

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RIPON: A Big Day At The Garden Racecourse………

RIPON Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.05 – William Hill Silver Trohpy Handicap (Consolation Race For The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes) Cl2 6f ITV

6/6 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
6/6 – Previous winners over 6f
6/6 – Had run in the last 5 weeks
6/6 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
6/6 – Returned between 13/2 and 16/1
5/6 – Favourites placed in the top 4
5/6 – Won between 3-4 times before
5/6 – Winning distance head or shorter
5/6 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
4/6 – Drawn in stalls 13 or higher
4/6 – Rated between 87-93
2/6 – Has won at Ripon before
0/6 – Winning favourites
Teruntum Star won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 6 years is 12/1

TQ VERDICT: Only the six past runnings to go on but some fair trends building up. All of the last six winners were aged between 4-6 years-old so that is a negative for Holiday Magic, Red Pike, Royal Brave and Related, who are all older. Horses that didn’t win last time out also have a good record so that’s not good news for recent winners – Quick Look and Hee Haw. All of the last six winners carried 9-2 or more in weight too. Four of the last six winners were draw in stalls 13 or higher – so of the 15 runners that’s a plus for only three – Boundsy, Quick Lookand Handsome Dude. With all that in mind, the two that catch the eye at big prices are HANDSOME DUDE (e/w)and BOUNDSY (e/w).The last-named has dropped to a nice handicap mark after not firing this season, while the return to 6f is another. I think he’s been finding things happening bit too quick over 5f of late and with his dropping mark and good draw we could see a return to form from this Richard Fahey runner – the yard also won this in 2012. Handsome Dude has Clifford Lee claiming a handy 3lbs but despite running down the field last time out at Thirsk that was his first run for just over 6 months. He’s a horse that often needs to blow away the cobwebs and also won’t mind if there’s any rain. He’s won around this mark in the past and wasn’t beaten far (3 lengths) when 8th in this race in 2016.

3.15 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

14/16 – Previous winners over 6f
13/16 – Didn’t win last time out
12/16 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
11/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/16 – Carried 8-12 or more
10/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/16 – Had 5 or more previous runs already that season
9/16 – Had run at Ripon before (3 won)
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
6/16 – Ran at either Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (3) last time out
6/16 – Aged 4 years-old
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by David O’Meara
1/16 – Aged 3 years-old
No winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
Only 5 winning favourites since 1990
Since 1986 ALL bar one winner returned 20/1 or less
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 12.5/1

TQ VERDICT: With 13 of the last 16 winners coming here having NOT won their last race then Flying Pursuit, Kimberella, Pipers Note and Henley are overlooked. 11 of the last 16 winners carried 8-12 or more so if that trend is to be upheld then Marie Of Lyon, Glen Moss, Reputation, Dakota Gold, Henley and Dark Power would have that as a negative. We’ve not had a winner from stall 1 in the last 12 years, so Pipers Note would also have to defy this stat. Don’t be afraid to look for a bigger-priced runner either as we’ve had only five winning favourites since 1990. Finally, going back to the draw – with 8 of the last 12 winners coming from stalls 8-13 (inc) then these six runners might have this as a plus – Al Qahwa, Golden Apollo, Ice Age, Foolaad, Dark Power and Aeolus. The Kevin Ryan-trained Teruntum Star won the consolation race last season so is a contender but is also 8lbs higher this time around. Growl is looking well-handicapped on old form as he’s rated 99 and was as high as 109 this time last year. He’s in form too after some good efforts (4th and 3rd) and York and Goodwood but draw 4 might not be ideal. So, the call here is to pin our hopes on the fair draw trend and side with GOLDEN APOLLO (e/w) and AL QAHWA (e/w). This first-named was an excellent second at York last time out – just a neck behind Flying Pursuit. He gets a pound weight pull with that one this time but his only two runs here at the track have also resulted in being third both times. It’s interesting the cheekpieces are on for the first time and the Tim Easterby yard took the race in 1999 and also 12 months ago! Al Qahwa hails from the David O’Meara camp that also have a good record in the race – winning it three times since 2011. Any rain would be a plus for this 5 year-old but off a mark of 96 then he looks interesting, especially as they’ve also got a 5lb claimer riding. He’s run well recently but certainly prefers a bit of cut so if the rain comes for him then I expect his price to shorten with draw 8 and just 8-13 in weight further positives for him.

NEWBURY: FOUR LIVE Races From The Berkshire Track…..

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends ITV/RUK)

1.50 – Denford Stud Stakes (Registered as The Washington Singer Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV

14/16 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Finished in the first three last time out
13/16 – Had won a race before
12/16 – Won by a Feb (7) or March (5) foal
12/16 – Had won over 6 or 7f before
11/16 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Horses from stall 3 placed
9/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
7/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Ran at Goodwood (2) or Sandown (2) last time out
4/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
3/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/16 – Won on their racecourse debut
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/4

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Mark Johnston and jockey Ryan Moore have a good record in this race – winning it five times between them in the last 16 years – they team-up here with the hat-trick seeking THE TRADER. This colt blew his rivals away at Chester last time out to record a 4 ½ length win over this 7f trip and based on that stunning performance looks well worth a crack at this higher graded race (Listed). Breeding suggests the horse should get further so any rain that might put more of an emphasis on stamina might not be an issue. Draw 3 looks ideal too as 9 of the last 16 horses from that starting berth were placed in the race. Of the rest, the Andrew Balding yard are just 2 from 46 with their 2 year-olds at the track so their Dutch Treat is overlooked. Richard Hannon runs two – Galileo Jade and Boitron – but it’s the last-named of that pair that should do best with the champion jockey – Silvestre De Sousa – booked to ride. He’s unbeaten from two starts so we might not have got to the bottom of him yet, but this is a big step up in grade. Antonia De Vega won well on debut for the Ralph Beckett camp and looks a nice prospect, but the main danger can come from the Godolphin runner – Good Fortune. The Charlie Appleby yard have a cracking 24% record with their juveniles at the track and after bolting-up by an easy 10 lengths at Lingfield (turf) last time went into many a notebook. That was probably a poor race, so it remains to be seen what he beat but he couldn’t have been more impressive. It is worth noting that win also came on good-to-firm ground, so any rain would be a bit of an unknown.

2.25 – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f61y ITV

16/16 – Had won at least twice in their career
14/16 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
12/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/16 – Officially rated 110 or higher
12/16 – Drawn in stall 3 or higher
12/16 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Aged 3-5 years-old
11/16 – Winning distance of 1 ¼ lengths or more
9/16 – Ran at Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (5) last time out
9/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – Had already won a Group race
7/16 – Had won at Newbury before
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2

TQ VERDICT: The Richard Hannon runner – Raymond Tusk – was a good winner at Hamilton last time out in a Listed race but will need to step up on that now into a Group Three. He does, however, get 9lbs off the older horses in the race and being a proven course winner too, plus having Silvestre De Sousa riding then he’s certainly one for the shortlist. Prior to that win he was a fair sixth in the Group One Eclipse Stakes and certainly wasn’t stopping over 1m3f last time to suggest he’s worth a crack over this longer 1m5f trip. The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin run two – Walton Street and Hamada – but with James Doyle riding Hamada this one looks their better chance. This 4 year-old has won it’s last four and was super-impressive when winning by 7 lengths at HQ last time out in a Class Two Handicap over 1m6f. We know he stays and certainly deserves to take his chance in this higher grade – not one to dismiss lightly. Course winner – Algometer – was second in a Group Two in France last time out and off a rating of 112 is the highest in the field. He’s a useful sort but is also a hard horse to win with and is now seven races without success. Ryan Moore was also riding him last time out, but he’s decided to jump ship in preference for the William Haggas-trained DAL HARRAILD. This 5 year-old is rated 111 and was far from disgraced when running fourth in the Group One Goodwood Cup last time out. The drop in class will help and having won over 2m then we can expect connections to make full use of his proven stamina. The Haggas camp are also in rude form at the moment with a 28% strike-rate at the time of writing, plus a certain Ryan Moore in the plate is the icing on the cake.

3.00 – Ladies Day Handicap Cl3 7f ITV

15/16 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
14/16 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
14/16 – Had won at least twice during their career
12/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Winning distance 1 length or shorter
11/16 – Carried 9-1 or more
10/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/16 – Drawn in stalls 11, 12, 13, 14 or 15
3/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Squats (7/1) won the race last year
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2

TQ VERDICT: With 15 of the last 16 winners aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old then this trend holds a lot of weight here. Yes, most of the 18 runners fit the bill but it does put a line through three – Gold Hunter, Squats, who won the race 12 months ago, and Charles Molson. If we want to take this age stat a bit further then it’s actually the 3 and 4 year-olds that have the better record (10 of the last 16) – this would rule out the 5 year-olds in the race – Black Bess, C Note and Mizaah. Draws 11 to 15 (inc) have a good record too – winning 50% of the last 16 runnings so Connaught Ranger, Squats, De Bruyne Horse, Black Bess and La Rav are horses to have in your sights based on this. 11 of the last 16 winners carried 9-1 or more too, while 10 of the last 16 winners finished in the top four last time out. Taking all these into account, then despite falling down on the age trend, it’s hard to totally ignore last year’s winner – SQUATS. From the in-form William Haggas yard, this 6 year-old has a top draw in 12 and is actually a massive 8lbs lower than last year’s win. Any rain is a plus and Georgina Cox, who claims a handy 3lbs, remains in the saddle. Of the rest, Mystic Flight, Rogue and Graphite Storm are all proven course and distance winners so command respect, while the hat-trick seeking Sea Fox is sure to be popular with Silvestre De Sousa riding. The other two interesting ones though are LA RAV (e/w) and CONNAUGHT RANGER (e/w). Both return from long breaks but are sure to be well tuned-up for this and also fit the key age and draw trends. Luca Cumani’s La Rav has James Doyle booked, which catches the eye and he’s also a proven course winner, albeit over a mile. He’s been gelded since we last saw him but with just five career runs should have more to come. Connaught Ranger gets in with just 8-4 to carry and is another that is lightly-raced. Connections have clearly taken their time with him but with such a small weight burden and a good draw in 11 he’s interesting too.

 

3.35 – Ladyswood Stud Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

15/16 – Didn’t win last time out
14/16 – Had won a Listed (5) or Group (8) race before
13/16 – Had won over this 7f trip before
13/16 – Officially rated 110 or more
13/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/16 – Had won 3 or more times already in their career
12/16 – Had 3 or more previous runs already that season
8/16 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
7/16 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
Breton Rock won the race in 2014 and was third in 2015
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: A decent renewal. BRETON ROCK can go well in a race he won in 2014 and was third in 2015. He returned from a break to run a close third to another of the runners there – Sir Dancealot – in the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood last month so certainly retains a lot of his ability. Any rain is fine and despite his advancing years (8 years-old) connections are not over-racing him during this later part of his career and with the expected improvement from last time can be in the mix. The other CD winner in the field is Dan’s Dream but he’s got a bit to find at the weights. The already mentioned Sir Dancealot will be popular though as he won last time despite getting a troubled passage, but he does have to give weight away to all the others which won’t be easy. YAFTA is a consistent sort but the big question surrounding him is the longer trip – he’s yet to win over 7f from two tries – but looks a good option from those at slightly bigger prices and his owners and jockey Jim Crowley also won the race 12 months ago. Librisa Breeze was a fair second in this race last season and off a rating of 116 is the second highest in the field. He acts on any ground and will find this easier than the Group Ones he’s been contesting of late – certainly one for the shortlist. However, it’s hard to get away from the Aidan O’Brien-trained – GUSTAV KLIMT. This 3 year-old is the highest-rated in the field at 117 and also gets weight from most of the other leading players in the race. Yes, he’s been a hard horse to win with of late but in his defence has been running at the top level. He was a close fourth in the Sussex Stakes last time at Goodwood and also runner-up in the Sta James’s Place Stakes at Ascot in June. The drop in grade will help as will the return to this 7f trip – a distance he’s unbeaten over (3 from 3)!! Ryan Moore rides and Aidan O’Brien will be looking for his first win in the race.

 

NEWMARKET: HQ Get Involved Too……………..

NEWMARKET Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.45 – Randox Health (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

15/16 – Failed to win last time out
13/16 – Only had 1 or 2 career wins to their name
13/16 – Came from stall 10 or lower
12/16 – Had won over 6f before
12/16 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
12/16 – Winning distance ½ length or less
10/16 – Carried 8-13 or less
10/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Finished 2nd or 3rd last time out
9/16 – Rated 82 to 88 inc
8/16 – Had run at the track before (4 won)
6/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/16 – Winners won by a neck
4/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/16 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Trained by David Barron
2/16 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (2 of last 5 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

TQ VERDICT: The Andrew Balding team have a decent 25% record with their 3 year-olds at the track so their REBEL STARK gets the nod here. This Jeff Smith-owned runner has won two of his last four starts and based on his recent easy two length win at Leicester there should be more to come. He’s up 6lbs for that but connections offset 3lbs of that with Jason Watson’s jockey claim so he’s really only 3lbs higher than last time. Any significant rain would probably not be ideal after running down the field over course and distance in soft conditions at this meeting last season but at least he’s tasted the track before. He looks a much better horse this season too and the ground would only be a real concern if it got really soft. Of the rest, trainer Roger Charlton has won this race a few times before, so his Buffer Zone is also respected, while the only other recent winner in the field – Staxton – can’t be ruled out after winning over this course and distance at the end of last month. He is up another 2lbs here but on a plus that victory did come on good-to-soft ground so any more of the wet stuff should be an issue for him.

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team