TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 19th Jan 2019

2018 December (Caspian Caviar) Gold Cup Betting Trends & Tips
Galway Plate Chase Free Tips and Trends
Galway Plate Chase Free Tips and Trends
  • ASCOT: Altior Is The Star Of The Show……..
  • HAYDOCK: Key Trends for the Peter Marsh Chase……
  • TQ UPDATE: ANOTHER GREAT WEEK FOR THE YARDS……..

Hi,

A few nice winners for the free tips last week, notably Keeper’s Hill, who went in up at Warwick and looks a fast-improving staying hurdler that could go onto bigger and better things.

It’s been ‘so far, so good’ with regards to the weather but there is talk of a cold snap around the corner – we’ll see!

This weekend the ITV cameras head to Ascot and Haydock to take in seven races across the two venues with the Clarence House and Peter Marsh Chases the two feature events.

However, it’s a shame the rain didn’t come in time for Un De Sceaux though as the popular Willie Mullins-trained chaser, who has won the last three renewals of the Clarence House Chase stays at home. This leaves just three runners and with one of those the mighty Altior then it will be one of the shocks of the decade if Nicky Henderson’s 9 year-old is making it 12—from-12 over fences.

The Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock is much more competitive though so be sure to take a look at the key trends below – like the fact 14 of the last 15 winners were aged 8 or older and had run in the last six weeks. These two key stats should help whittle down the runners a fair bit!

So, plenty to look forward too and, as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend!!

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes: Winners Continue To Fly In……..

As you can see below the TQ yards have been kicking the January blues into touch over the last week with bundles more winners, and with the successes coming over both on the flat and over the sticks then it’s been a great all-round performance ……………………something for everyone!

Here’s just a sample of recent winners…………………

“Embers Glow won well at Wolverhampton just before Xmas and remains in good spirits at home. He seems to prefer Wolverhampton, but has had a couple of solid runs at Kempton so providing it isn’t riding too slow then he should be ok. Eoin Walsh gets on well with him, so if the race in run at a true gallop then hopefully he will be involved in the finish again.”

2ND 6/1 MARK LOUGHNANE

“Debestyman – Ran very well last time – improved for the step up in trip. Would want a bit more rain to get into the ground this afternoon though but there might be some in the air. We expect him to go very close today.”

1ST 7/4 SUZY SMITH

“AR MEST ran out a decent winner at Leicester recently. Has gone up 6 pounds for that but hopefully the booking of Niall Houlihan taking 10 off will go some way towards rectifying this. Seems to act well on any surface having won his maiden on heavy but coped fine with the quick ground at Leicester.”

1ST 7/4 GARY MOORE

“Bolt N Brown – The Balding horse sets the standard and might be hard to beat but our 3 year-old is going the right way and was a much improved third last time at Chelmsford. Has come out of that race well and seems in great order at home. Another step forward expected and we’d be disappointed if he’s not in the top three at least.”

3RD 10/1 GAY KELLEWAY

“Mont Kiara – Makes his debut for us here and has some useful form. No reason why he won’t feature at this level, well drawn and top rider booked, sure to come on for the run as well though.”

1ST 10/1 SIMON DOW

“Gas Monkey – Is a horse we’ve always liked – we didn’t over race him last year because he was still waek and was always going to improve with age. He has won over this CD on his only run on the AW so that helps and he runs well fresh too. We hope he will be thereabouts today.”

2ND 7/1 JULIA FIELDEN

“Subliminal – Satisfactory debut for us a few weeks ago when he looked like he wanted further. Stamina to prove but plenty of scope and can only have come on for the run last time. Interesting in a low grade event.”

3RD 16/1

“Croeso Cymraeg – Shaped well enough on first run for us and should come on for that. Should be thereabouts in what looks a tricky heat to assess.”

3RD 25/1 JAMES EVANS

“Debece – Really looks a shoot out between us and the Greatrex horse. Debece was a fair second on his chase debut at Chepstow last time out and on the whole jumped well that day. That would have taught him a lot and it was also his first run back for 5 months. The ratings suggest we can just edge it as we are 4lbs higher and off level weights here so if his jumping holds out then expecting a decent effort.”

1ST 6/5 TIM VAUGHAN

“CASSIVELLAUNUS is off a mark that he won off at Plumpton nearly a year ago and has run solid races in defeat at Fakenham and Fontwell in recent weeks. Capable of taking this today but it could turn out to be quite an open race with several with chances. Each-way chance. “

3RD 10/1 GARY MOORE

“EARLY DU LEMO has been rather unfortunate unseating the jockey two out of three of his last runs. Ran a good race at Newbury finishing second just after Christmas inbetween those so with a clear round you would have to be hopeful. This race is not so competitive as Newbury and although it was only 5 days ago that EARLY DU LEMO ran loose at Leicester he came out of that race fine.”

1ST 11/4 GARY MOORE

“Tappity Tap – Big scopey filly who needs to settle better than on debut if she is to reverse placings with a couple here.”

3RD 50/1 DANIEL KUBLER

“Dark Alliance – Went close the last day when second here over this trip. Dropped in grade should give us every chance of going one better. One or two others with a similar chance in the race but we are the only CD winner in the field plus our fella is well at home. Megan is getting to know the horse too and her 5lb claim is handy – should go very close and really we’d be disappointed if he’s not taking this.”

1ST 13/8 MARK LOUGHNANE

“Millarville won a point to point before joining us and she was running a big race at Warwick first time out before stopping quickly entering the home straight. I was immediately suspicious of her wind and upon inspection she had an issue with her soft palate. She was operated on and hopefully because it was a fairly new problem it won’t have affected her. Millarville is a lovely honest mare who jumps extremely well, the trip today could be on the short side for her so I hope they go a good gallop. Skelton horse to beat but feel we’ve got e/w claims here.

1ST 7/1 OLIVER SHERWOOD

“Step up in trip for NOT NEVER today, but I see no reason why he won’t see this out having always ran over distances of 1m 4f and 1m 6f  on the flat to be seen at his best. I am hoping the trip will bring out improvement in him and he should arrive today possibly fitter than when he ran just over three weeks ago. Last run was in a top handicap at Ascot so this race today should be easier for him. Jamie rides and should go well.”

1ST 3/1 GARY MOORE

“Briac – A step in the right direction last time when fourth at Fontwell on only his second run for us. Trying him up in trip here though as seemed to get outpaced last time over 2m 1f, we feel it will suit but you never really know until you try it – has run over this sort of trip a few times before but that was 2-3 years ago. A race we are sponsoring so hoping he can go well. Each-way claims in an open affair if getting the trip.”

1ST 16/1 TIM VAUGHAN

“Crosse Fire – Has run well the last twice, including a fine second here in the week. Same grade gives us a similar chance and the horse takes his racing well. The drop to 5f should help as just got headed last time over 6f. No 5lb claimer on this time though – should run his race but does look one of those contests that 5 or 6 have decent chances in.”

2ND 7/1 SCOTT DIXON

“Ornate – In great form at the moment and won here in midweek. Up 6lbs (penalty) for that but did it nicely (2 lengths) so we feel there is more to come. Actually still well-treated on his old form too – as once rated 110 (now 92). Another bold big from the front expected and should not be far away.”

1ST 5/2 DAVE GRIFFITHS

“Trixter – Going the right way – has won two of his last three and looks on the up still. Had a small break after his last win but is fresh and well – ready to go again. Charlie gets on well with the horse and can claim 7lbs this time so that helps – based on the ratings that should give us a big chance with the Murphy and Scott horses. Heavy ground win last time but has won on good too and the trip looks ideal – we are actually the only distance winner in the field so hoping that counts for something. Should go well.”

1ST 6/4 TIM VAUGHAN

“Generous Day – In great form at home and on the track at the moment – gone well in his two runs so far this season and even though upped in grade gets in here off a lower weight which will help (10-3). Drop in trip a help too so if handling the track – no reason why he won’t – then should go well with the horses running well at the moment.”

1ST 9/4 HENRY OLIVER

“Lady Alavesa – She’s a consistent sort that has been in the top three in all her last 5 starts. Would actually have done even better in recent runs if getting away better as does have a slight habit of missing the break. Trip and track are fine so with a better start should be bang there. Josie gets on well with her so solid each-way chance though.”

1ST 11/4 GAY KELLEWAY

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

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Ascot: Altior Bids For Win Number Twelve Over Fences………. 

1.50 – OLBG.com Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
8/9 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
8/9 – From the top 4 in the betting
8/9 – Later ran in that season’s OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
8/9 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
7/9 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
6/9 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
6/9 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Newbury (2) in their last race
6/9 – Favourites placed
5/9 – Won their last race
5/9 – Winning Favourites
4/9 – French bred
3/9 – Raced at Ascot previously
3/9 – Aged 6 years-old
2/9 – Trained by Harry Fry
2/9 – Later finished second in the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
1/9 – Won the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) – Vroum Vroum Mag (2016)
Trainer Harry Fry won 2 of the last 4 runnings

Jester Jet looks a player here, but a string of four seconds suggests she’s not an easy horse to win with and her task is made a bit harder by having to give 4lbs away to the rest. One of those that gets the weight is the Paul Nicholls-trained IF YOU SAY RUN, who heads into the contest as the second highest-rated mare in the field. She won well at Wincanton back in November but failed to see out the extended 3m trip last time out so the slight drop in trip here will help, plus there is a chance that last spin came a bit too soon. Connections have given her a few months off too so should also be better for the break – from 8 runs over hurdles she’s only finished out of the top two once. Magic Of Light is the top-rated mare in the field and is sure to attract support being she’s come over from the Jessie Harrington yard in Ireland. She won easily at Newbury last time out (14 lengths) so has shown she travels over well and based on that run probably sets the standard. The Nick Williams-trained Culture De Sivola is another to note as this 7 year-old has won three of her last four starts, and could have more to come too.  


2.25 – Matchbook Holloway´s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV4

9/11 – Priced 5/1 or bigger in the betting
9/11 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
9/11 – Aged 7 or younger
8/11 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
8/11 – Officially rated 139 or higher
8/11 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
7/11 – Ran within in the last 4 weeks
6/11 – French bred
6/11 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/11 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 3rd)
5/11 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
5/11 – Had raced at Ascot previously
5/11 – Won their last race
5/11 – Aged 6 years-old
3/11 – Trained by David Pipe
3/11 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
2/11 – Later raced in that season’s World Hurdle (best finish 3rd)
2/11 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/11 – Favourites (1 co)

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock

Some interesting sorts on show here but barring a fourth two starts ago it’s hard to fault the Nigel Twiston-Davies runner BALLYMOY. This 6 year-old has won four of his last five starts, including a 4 ½ length beating of another runner here – Better Getalong. Yes, the runner-up has a 5lb weight pull but the selection looked to have a bit in the locker. He’s won on a range of ground from good-to-soft up to heavy so even if there is more rain that’s fine. He’s also shown he can carry a big weight (11-12) to victory in the past, while the stiff Ascot track looks another plus. Seddon and proven course and distance winner, New Quay, are others to note, while the Charles Byrnes runners – Thosedaysaregone – is sure to be well supported coming over from Ireland and also having just 10-6 to carry. He came over last weekend to win well at Wetherby and despite going up 9lbs for that could still be ahead of the handicapper. Interesting runner, but might not be any value in this better race.

3.00 – bet365.com Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV4

12/12 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
11/12 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
10/12 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Either French (3) or Irish (7) bred
9/12 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
9/12 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
9/12 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
8/12 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
8/12 – Aged 8 or younger
6/12 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
6/12 – From the top 3 in the betting
5/12 – Winning distance  – 6 lengths or further
5/12 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/12 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
2/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 4 runnings)
2/12 – Trained by Richard Rowe
2/12 – Won their last race
2/12 – Winning Favourites

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter

The Venetia Williams yard took this race in 2016 and with their horses continuing to be in great form (32%) their BELAMI DES PICTONS (e/w) could be the answer here. This 8 year-old has clearly had a few issues as he’s not been out for 440 days but when last seen he ran the classy Waiting Patiently to 2 ½ lengths at Carlisle – form that looks very decent now! Yes, his fitness has to be take on trust but he’s still only 8 years-old and – as mentioned – the yard are in tip-top order at present so he might be worth chancing.  Of the rest, Jerrysback ran well to be a close second over this course and distance last time out and off a 4lb higher mark can’t be ruled out, while others that have shown a liking for this track are Happy Diva, Mr Medic and Benatar – especially MR MEDIC (e/w), who comes from the Robert Walford yard that have a cracking 50% strike-rate with their chasers at Ascot. Yes, he’s got a bit to prove off a 9b higher mark than when last winning and needs to bounce back from a sixth last time in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham but prior to that has won twice at Ascot so the return to the Berkshire track will be a bit help. Mister Whitaker should also run his race and was a fair fourth in the BetVictor Gold Cup last time out at Cheltenham but it won’t be easy with 11-12 to carry. Finally, Paul Nicholls has won two of the last four runnings of this race so his entries San Benedeto and Cyrname certainly can’t be ruled out.

3.35 – Matchbook Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV

16/16 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
16/16 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
15/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/16 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
14/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
14/16 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/16 – Favourites placed
12/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
11/16 – Won their last race
10/16 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (4 winners)
10/16 – Raced at Sandown (6) or Wetherby (3) last time out
9/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/16 – Favourites that won
8/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
4/16 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 – Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre 2013, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets)
4/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
4/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/16 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
3/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 4 times in all)
2/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (28 runnings) there have been 12 winners aged 8 years-old

The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 3/1

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 & 2017 – Renewals at Cheltenham

It’s a shame the winner of this race for the last three years – Un De Sceaux – doesn’t make the trip over – the rain just hasn’t come for him this week. That leaves just three in the race and with one of those being ALTIOR then this looks a penalty-kick for the Nicky Henderson star chaser. He’s now looking for his twelfth straight win and having beaten one of his rivals here – Diego Du Charmil – by 19 lengths last time at Kempton then it would be one of the shocks of the decade if he can reverse that form. Fox Norton makes up the trip and is certainly no back-number if back to his best. He’s rated only 8lbs lower than Altior, so if fit enough after a lay-off then can hopefully make a race of it. He’s gone well fresh in the past and the Tizzard yard have been going well this week. An interesting race that is likely to develop into a match between Fox Norton and Altior, but with the last-named yet to lose over fences and also being a proven winner at the track then it’s hard to see anything other than win number 12 for Henderson’s charge.

Haydock: Key Trends To Unravel The Peter Marsh Chase…….

2.05 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

12/12 – Aged 7 or younger
12/12 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
11/12 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Won their last race
6/12 – Aged 5 years-old
6/12 – Had raced at Haydock previously
6/12 – Winning Favourites
4/12 –  Ran at Haydock last time out
3/12 – French bred
2/12 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2/12 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/12 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/12 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 11/4
Note: 2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby

Idee De Garde and Esprit Du Large have done well in the few races they’ve run in but really it will be a shock if Mister Fisher or BRIGHT FORECAST are not fighting this out. The former hails from the powerful Nicky Henderson yard and was an easy winner last time out at Kempton on Boxing Day. He’s already popular in the betting for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and a win here would further enhance his chance. However, the better value might be from the Ben Pauling-trained BRIGHT FORECAST, who has done little wrong in winning his first two starts over hurdles. The yard are 1 from 2 here at the track with their hurdlers and he also gets a handy 3lbs from the Henderson horse. Yes, he might also need to brush-up on his jumping as he made a few sketchy jumps last time, but he still stayed on powerfully to win well and is sure to have been well-schooled again since.

2.40 – The New One Unibet (Registered as the Champion Hurdle Trial) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

13/13 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
13/13 – Favourites placed in the top 3
11/13 – Finished in the top three in their last race
11/13 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
10/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle
11/13 –  From the top 3 in the betting
11/13 – Priced 9/4 or shorter
10/13 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
10/13 – Officially Rated 152 or higher
10/13 – Either French (3) or Irish (7) bred
9/13 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (5) last time out
7/13 – Aged 7 or younger
8/13 – Winning Favourites
4/13 – Placed in the top 4 in that season’s Champion Hurdle (no winners)
3/13 – Won their last race
1/13 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
The average SP in the last 8 runnings is 2/1

Some familiar faces here despite only five runners, but a case can be made for most. Course and distance winner – Silver Streak – is the top-rated in the field and was an excellent second in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham last time out. He’s finished in the top two in nine of his 14 starts over hurdles and rarely runs a bad race – he should be going close. However, the Evan Williams yard are only 3 from 28 at the time of writing so that would be a worry and he’s also little value in the betting. Western Ryder is one of those horses that hasn’t progressed as many though he might and is now winless from his last seven. Global Citizen was a good winner at Newbury two runs back but failed to back that up – albeit in a better race – last time in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He’ll make a bold bid from the front but will probably set the race up for something else. That horse can be MOHAAYED, from the in-form Dan Skelton yard. This 7 year-old, who won the County Hurdle last season, was a nice winner at Ascot last time out and was only 3 ¾ lengths behind Silver Streak at Ffos Las back in October. He was also giving that horse 7lbs that day so off level weights this time has a much better chance. The yard and jockey (Harry Skelton) are in great order at the moment plus went close in this race last year too with Ch’tibello.    

3.15 – Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

15/15 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
14/15 – Aged 8 or older
14/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
13/15 – Had run within the last 36 days
11/15 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
10/15 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
10/15 – Won at Haydock previously
10/15 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
9/15 – Favourites unplaced
9/15 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
8/15 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/15 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
8/15 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
8/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
7/15 – Won over fences at Haydock before
6/15 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
5/15 – Raced in the Roland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
5/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
3/15 – Trained by Sue Smith
2/15 – Trained by the McCain stable
2/15 – Won their last race
2/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

A very open renewal of this gruelling race that is often billed as a Grand National trial – however, since the race was first run in 1981, we are yet to see a winner of both races in the same season. Some key trends to take into the race too, with 14 of the last 15 winners aged 8 or older, carried 11st 3lbs and having raced in the last six weeks. This age trend suggests the Pipe-trained 7 year-old Daklondike has a bit to do despite winning well here last time out.  The Sue Smith and Venetia Williams yards have won the race five times between them since 1999 so their representatives WAKANDA (e/w) and OTAGO TRAIL (e/w) are certainly worth a second glance and it could pay to side with this pair. Both come from yards that have been having winners of late and also tick a lot of the main trends. Wakanda is a past course winner that is only a pound higher than his last win and should be better for two recent runs. While Otago Trail will have the benefit of 7lb claimer Hugh Nugent and that help will be a bonus in conditions. Yes, he’s got a bit to find with Valtor after running below-par to that Henderson horse, who also goes here, last time, but he was hampered that day and the yard are clearly in much better form now. With nine top three finishes from 12 runs over fences he’s generally a consistent performer so that last run can certainly be forgiven. He’s run well at the track in the past too, so he’s got a lot going for him. CAPTAIN REDBEARD will certainly have his supporters too after running second in this race last year and gets in off the same rating too. He’s a horse that seems to save his best for Haydock so another bold run is expected – his form here reads 3-1-2-1-2-3!  Of the rest, the 2017 Grand National winner One For Arthur will be popular but he unseated on his return last time so the jury is s till out if he’s up to the same level of a few years ago after his long time off. Valtor will be looking to give Henderson his first win in the race and after a good win last time will be popular, but is up 12lbs for that success and it won’t be easy with 11st 12lbs. Ballyarthur is closely-matched with Daklondike, after running second to him here last time, while Ballydine, Red Infantry and Robinsfirth are others to consider. The last-named of that bunch comes from the Tizzard yard that took this race last year but will need to overcome a 400-day break – 14 of the last 15 winners had raced in the last 6 weeks. On a plus, they’ve booked the champion jockey Richard Johnson so that’s a plus and if back to the level of form that he left off back in December 2017 then would have a big say. 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team