- NEWBURY: All Eyes On The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase…….
- NEWCASTLE: A Fascinating Fighting Fifth Hurdle Clash…..
- TQ UPDATE: Winners Galore This Week……..
Wow! That was certainly a performance last weekend from Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase. When they say ‘horses for courses’ this popular grey is taking that statement to the next level!! He’s now 4-from-4 over fences at Haydock and is fast-becoming a track legend at the Lancashire venue. It’s just a shame he can’t translate that form to tracks like Kempton, Cheltenham and Aintree – they’d we’d certainly have something to look forward too over the next four months…………however, maybe this is his season to put it right at the other courses – we’ll see!
The top-notch jumping action continues this Saturday too with top cards at both Newbury and Newcastle. At Newbury, the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase is the main event – the old Hennessy Gold Cup to me and you! As always, a super-competitive race but we’ve got it all covered below with our take on the race and the main trends to apply to the runners.
Then up at Newcastle the ITV cameras are taking in two races with the BetVictor Fighting Fifth Hurdle the showcase race and we look set for a cracker this year as the current champion hurdler – Buveur D’Air, who also took the 2017 running of this race, takes on Samcro, who is on a recovery mission after flopping on his return to the track recently – a not to be missed renewal!
So, plenty to look forward too and, as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!
Have a Great Weekend!
This Week At Trainers-Quotes: Winners Galore This Week…….
Plenty to shout about again this week on the TQ front with bundles of winners across the yards. Both over the jumps and on the AW have been paying their way for members with great returns so as we head into the festive month there’s a lot to get excited about.
In particular, the Jamie Snowden, Tim Vaughan and Mick Appleby yards have been in terrific form, while Henry Oliver & Oliver Sherwood have chipped in too.
The TQ View selections have been rewarding too with Tim’s Cap St Vincent winning easily up at Musselburgh earlier in the week and looks a horse to follow until he loses based on that win. Plus, Gay told us she thought her Global Goddess (2nd 16/1) would go well on Wednesday and she wasn’t wrong. Yes, not a win but a tasty each-way return at 16/1!
Here’s just a sample of recent winners…………………
“Rosie And Millie – Took a step forward last time out at Warwick in a similar race – only beaten just over 4 lengths. Softer ground here is fine and we are also putting the hood on for the first time today to help her focus. Probably looks a hotter race than last time but hoping she’s improved so deserves to take her chance and her experience will be a big plus over the others. The Fry and Pauling horses set the standard so might be hard to topple but still looking for a nice run.”
3RD 14/1 MICHAEL SCUDAMORE
“Tan Arabiq – In and out performer but a CD winner at the track. Fair draw in 7 but returning from a 4 1/2 month break so might just need this this. Will improve for the outing though and not a bad AW overall record (13 runs and 5 top 3 finishes). Small e/w but the Dascombe horse looks the one to beat.”
2ND 10/1 MICK APPLEBY
“Greatest Journey – Ran in that voided race at Chelmsford last time when the lights failed – actually ran well though so we head here hopeful of a good showing. Down a few pounds from last run and ran well off this mark three starts ago. Nice draw in 2 too and acts well on the course (course winner). Feel we head here with an each-way chance.”
1ST 5/1 MICK APPLEBY
“Global Goddess – been in consistent form and returned to the track from a small break to run third last time out at Kempton. Dropped a pound for that but the step up to 7f (from 6f) looks key after running on well last time. If things fall right then hoping for a big run as the horse is very well.”
2ND 16/1 GAY KELLEWAY
“Shantewe – Goes well at home and has the ability to win a bumper. But, this looks a deep race so whatever happens she has a future. Will learn a lot here today – both the horse and us. Probably 1 1/2 stars”
1ST 16/1 JAMIE SNOWDEN
“Hijan – In good order and receiving weight all-round. Ground is a plus and we feel he’s got every chance here today, especially with Jason claiming a handy 10lbs from the saddle.”
1ST 9/2 HENRY OLIVER
“Mountain Chimes – In good order – ground was too quick the last day and we also ran him back too quickly. Ground more ideal here and has a solid e/w chance today.”
3RD 6/1 HENRY OLIVER
“Boots And Spurs – Looks one of our better chances on the day. Loves the track and his recent third here was a good sign he’s coming back into a bit of form. Also a pound lower than last time. Amateur riders’ race but Gareth has ridden Boots in the past and his 5lb claim a help too. Draw 4 perfect so if running to the level of last time then should not be far away.”
2ND 5/1 SCOTT DIXON
“Space Bandit – Only second run for us after coming from the Michael Bell yard and third run in total. Still finding our feet with him but shown a fair level of form to suggest he can go well here. Surface an unknown and will be a bit better once handicapped but in a race that lacks depth we’ve got claims of hitting the frame – anything else a plus.”
1ST 9/4 MICK APPLEBY
“Bolton Boy – Well bred sort that has not shown up in two races so far but the better ground here will certainly help. Will also get a mark after this so that will help. More needed but one for the future and hopeful of a step in the right direction here today.”
1ST 16/1 TIM VAUGHAN
“Midnight Chill – Works like a smart horse but his form has been a bit hit and miss on the track. He had a wind op over the summer and won the legends race at Chepstow last month. He jumps well and could be very well-handicapped.”
1ST 8/1 JAMIE SNOWDEN
“Cap St Vincent – Delighted with his win last time out at Ludlow – won with a bit in-hand too. Up 8lbs for that so harder this time but going the right way and this will only be his ninth career run so more to come. Conditions are fine too – small niggle that the last race was only 11 days ago, but showing to have come out of that well and happy to let him take his chance again here in what looks another good opportunity for him.”
1ST 6/5 TIM VAUGHAN
“Michele Strogoff – Been a busy horse this year but is taking his racing well. Second last time out just 5 days ago but dropped into a Claimer here and weighted to go close. Actually looks an above average claimer with three 80+ rated horses in (one is us). Another bold bid expected but a horse that is placed more often than winning and that might be the case again here – hopefully not! Still, in great order and should not be far away – looks my best chance on the day. “
1ST 13/8 MICK APPLEBY
“Cervaro Mix – has run well in both of his races for us, finishing second in a bumper first time out on unsuitable ground at Fontwell and he then ran with huge promise in his first hurdle race at Bangor. If he had really winged the last he’d have been fourth, it was a very good race, the second horse won at a Warwick on Wednesday and the third horse won at Ascot yesterday so the form looks solid. The Webber horse to beat but we head here with place claims.”
1ST 7/2 OLIVER SHERWOOD
Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!
Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!
Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!
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NEWBURY: Another Top Renewal of the Ladbrokes Gold Trophy
Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RUK)
1.50 – Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV
Six previous runnings
3 of the last 6 winners aged 5 years-old
1 winning favourite (joint)
5 of the 6 winners carried between 10-10 and 11-5
Old Guard won the race 12 months ago
Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls, Alan King, Rebecca Curtis & Ali Stronge have trained the winners
The Nicky Henderson-trained Champ is sure to be popular here, having won his last two, but does return from a break so would need to be fully wound-up. With 50% of the last six winners of this race aged 5 years-old and also 5 of the last 6 winning with between 10-10 and 11-5 in weight then Champ also have these two stats against him. One horse that doesn’t though is the Philip Hobbs-trained WHO’S MY JOCKEY. Well, in answer the horses name – it’s none other than champion jockey – Richard Johnson – who is riding him. Yes, he finished down the field last time here but that came over 3m and he simply didn’t see it out. The drop back to 2m 4 1/2f here will suit and we can also expect him to be fitter for those two recent runs. The Hobbs team have also won this race in the past. Of the rest, recent winner Speedo Boy is another to note with just 10-5 to carry, while there will be a lot of interest in the classy Barters Hill – a past CD winner, that is making his return to the track. He’s a horse that’s had a lot of issues though, so I’d rather be a watcher until we know he retain all his old ability.
2.25 Ladbrokes Intermediate Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Registered As The Gerry Fielden Hurdle) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m69y ITV
12/12 – Had at least 4 runs over hurdles before
11/12 – Aged 6 or younger
11/12 – Won over 2m (hurdles) before
10/12 – Won just 1-2 times in the past (hurdles)
9/12 – Irish, French or German bred
9/12 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
7/12 – Finished in the top three last time out
7/12 – Had raced at Newbury before
6/12 – Officially rated between 126-134
6/12 – Unplaced favourites
5/12 – Aged 5 years-old
4/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/12 – Raced at Aintree last time out
2/12 – Won last time out
7 of the last 11 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1
Some interesting sorts heading to post here. The Henderson yard have a decent 28% record with their hurdlers at the track and also have a good record in this race (3 wins since 2009) so their Whatswrongwithyou will be popular. He’s the only CD winner in the field too and looks sure to go well. However, with 11 of the last 12 winners aged 6 or younger this 7 year-old has a big trend to overcome. The Ben Pauling yard won this race last year, so their classy Global Citizen is interesting too, but with topweight of 11-10 it’s not going to be easy. Alan King is another yard that has history in the contest (winning it in 2016) so their recent winner Lisp can be considered too, while recent winners, Ballymoy, Whatmore and What’s Occurring are also going to have their supporters. However, the call here is to side with the Paul Nicholls-trained MONT DES AVALOIRS. The yard took this pot in 2011 and after a recent run behind (2nd) the classy Maria’s Benefit should be spot-on for this. He has form with Global Citizen and Ballymoy from last season but meets that pair on much better terms this time. He ticks a lot of the main stats and the Nicholls yard are overall in decent shape.
3.00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) ITV 3m2f110y
15/16 – Aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
14/16 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
13/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
12/16 – Had run at Newbury before (8 had won over fences there)
12/16 – Carried 10-13 or more
11/16 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
11/16 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
11/16 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
10/16 – Rated between 140 and 151
10/16 – Had a previous run that season
9/16 – Won last time out
9/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
8/16 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 6)
2/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of last 6)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 15/2
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (27 runnings) there have been 13 winners (48%) aged 7 years-old
Plenty of trends to get stuck into ahead of the ‘big one’ with horses aged 8 or younger having the best recent record which is bad news for the likes of The Young Master (9), Go Conquer (9) and Sizing Tennesse (10). 13 of the last 16 winners finished in the top three last time out, while 12 of the last 16 carried 10-13 or more in weight. With all that in mind, the two at the head of the betting – Elegant Escape and THOMAS PATRICK tick a lot of boxes. The pair met were separated by just ½ a length last time at Sandown and with a 5lb pull in favour of Thomas Patrick here then it should be a fascinating renewal. Both are also proven course winners and with 50% of the last 16 winners of this race having landed a chase race at the Berkshire track then this is another plus ahead of their chance. Dingo Dollar and Ms Parfois are other course winners that tick a lot of the main trends so can’t be ruled out, while the Harry Fry-trained American was popular in the race last year but, don’t forget, he was pulled-up that day so has a bit to prove. The Paul Nicholls-trained Black Corton is another to consider and is sure to make a bold bid from the front but it won’t be easy with 11-12 to carry – only the likes of Denman and Trabolgan have won this race in recent years with such a burden. Nicky Henderson has won the prize twice since 2012 and will be looking to add to that with BEWARE THE BEAR (e/w). He’s anther course winner here and won first time out last season so the 224-day break isn’t a big worry. He also returns from a wind op and if fully tuned-up can go best of the bigger-priced runners.
3.35 – Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f ITV
14/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Officially rated between 126-136
11/16 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
10/16 – French bred
9/16 – Had won a UK chase race over 2m1f
9/16 – Had won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
9/16 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
8/16 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
8/16 – Placed in their last race
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
9 of the last 12 winners carried between 10-8 and 11-3
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
Rock On Rocky, Top Gamble and Bigmartre are all proven course and distance winners here so command respect. If the ground gets any softer then that would increase the chances of Top Gamble and his yard (Kerry Lee) won this race in 2015 so know what’s required – Richard Johnson is an eye-catching jockey booking so this is certainly one for the shortlist. Oh, the yard also run Shear Rock so any market support for this one should be noted too. Bigmartre hails from the Harry Whittingham yard that boast a stonking 44% record with their chasers at the track. He flopped last time though and the yard had a big odds-on shot turned over in the week, so I would like to see their horses running a bit better. If back to his best can’t be ignored though. Harry Fry, who has his horses in good order, won this last year so his Space Oddity is another to consider but does head here off the back of a fall so might need to brush up his jumping. Forest Bihan and Baby King, from the in-form Tom George yard are others of interest but the call here is LADY BUTTONS. The Philip Kirby yard are in great form at the moment and this 8 year-old caught the eye when winning well at Wetherby last time out over hurdles. He’s back over fences here but is won 2 of her 3 runs over fences and could have more to offer over the bigger obstacles.
NEWCASTLE: It’s a ‘Must-See’ Fighting Fifth Hurdle……..
Newcastle Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/ATR)
2.10 – BetVictor Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV
16/16 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
15/16 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
14/16 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
13/16 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
13/16 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Officially rated 151 or higher
10/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/16 – Placed in the top 6 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
10/16 – Won their last race
8/16 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/16 – Won by an Irish bred horse
4/16 – Won by an Irish based yard
3/16 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
3/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of last 10)
2/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 4)
2/16 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi, 2018 Buveur d’Air)
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 5/1
Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury
3.20 – BetVictor Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV
13/14 – Didn’t win their last race
12/14 – Irish bred
12/14 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
11/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 3m
10/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/14 – Unplaced last time out
9/14 – Had won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
7/14 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
5/14 – Unplaced favourites
5/14 – Aged 8 years-old
4/14 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/14 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 8/1
Beware The Bear (11/4 fav) won the race in 2017
Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow
12 of the last 14 winners carried 10-12 or more in this race then of the 12 runners only the top six on the card qualify – Lake View Lad, Big River, Templehills, Testify, Baywing and Otago Trail. The last-named is also a proven winner of this race, after landing the spoils in 2016 but has been off the track for 665 days so has clearly had some issues. Yes, he’s a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past, but he’ll need to carry 11-12 too and that won’t be easy after a long lay-off. The Venetia Williams yard are just 1 from 17 in the last few weeks too so that’s not a great sign. The Neil Alexander yard are going well so their consistent Lake View Lad, who is also a past CD winner, can go well and rates a big danger, but it’s interesting that 11 of the last 14 winners of this race had run within the last 6 weeks. Of those mentioned with 10-12 or more it’s only TEMPLEHILLS (e/w) that has run in the last 6 weeks. Okay, he fell last time out too but was running a fair race at the time and had prior to that had gone well this season. He should be fitter than most and with 4 wins over fences from 13 starts has a good wins-to-runs ratio. Of those at the foot of the weights, Ballydone is another course winner that rarely runs a bad race, while Bishops Road stays well and returned to form to run a decent second last weekend at Haydock.
THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!
Have a GREAT Weekend