TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 1st Sept 2018

Chester May Meeting Free Tips and Trends - DAY TWO (Thurs 11th May 18)

 

  • BEVERLEY: Who’ll Fire In The Bullet ?……………..
  • CHESTER: Two LIVE Races On The Roodee
  • SANDOWN: Gosden and Stoute To Shine In Esher…….
  • TQ UPDATE: It’s Been Another Top Week……….

 

Hi,

Well the key trends pointed us to take on the hot Ebor Handicap favourite – Stratum – last Saturday and we also had a fair return with the second – Weekender – rewarding each-way players. The big weight just took it’s toll in the closing stages but the Gosden horse looks to still have a huge future in the main staying races in the coming years.

This week, as we head into September, we’ve seven more LIVE races to take in with Chester, Beverley and Sandown the venues ITV heads to. The Beverley Bullet is the feature race at the northern track and our very own Dave Griffiths will be hoping to win the race for a second year running with his popular veteran sprinter – Take Cover. Despite his age (11) he’s been mixing it with the big boys again this season but the drop back into Listed company will help – his recent form in this grade reads an impressive 1-2-1-1-1-1-5!

Down at Sandown we’ve two decent Group Threes to enjoy – the Atalanta and Solario Stakes. Trainer John Gosden has done well in the Solario Stakes over the years and in Too Darn Hot looks to have another big chance, while the Stoute camp love to target the Atalanta Stakes – they’ve also got a good chance this year with their classy filly – Veracious.

So, another top day to look forward to with LIVE races from Chester, Beverley and Sandown to enjoy and as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

 

Have a Great Weekend!

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes: More Success For The TQ Yards…….

Plenty to shout about again last week. A lot of standout performances including Scott Dixon’s Deia Glory, who finished second in a Listed race at York last Saturday at a stonking 50/1. We’ve also had International winners with Mick Appleby landing the Polar Cup in Norway and Gay winning in France with a horse we know she likes a lot – Fairy Tale – she thinks it’s the best she’s got at the moment!

A top shout to the Charlie Fellowes yard too as they notched their 100th winner for the stable with Escalator going in at Goodwood last Saturday at a tasty 14/1. Lee Carter, Mick Appleby, Scott Dixon, Michael Scudamore, Dave Griffiths and Simon Dow were other stables in winning action this week too. Top stuff all round!!

 

Here’s just a sample of recent winners…………………

“Deia Glory – Speedy filly that got the better of another of today’s runners – Little Legs – at Catterick two starts ago. Wasn’t disgraced when 8th in the Molecomb – only beaten 4 1/2 lengths. Into Listed company from Group Three makes things a tad easier but still a hot race. Well at home and the york 5f course is expected to suit. Yes, likely to find a few too good again but deserves her place in the field and should still not be far away.”

2ND 50/1 SCOTT DIXON

“Maquisard – Probably my better chance on the day – Has improved for his recent run at Epsom after a bit of time off and been working better at home. Seems to go well fresh too so the 3 month break isn’t a concern and has won over 2m over the sticks so the 1m6f trip here is fine. Ground is fine.”

2nd 16/1 GARY MOORE

“Escalator – Found the ground too quick for him last time at Ascot and the trip might have been on the sharp side. Hopefully today’s conditions will suit him much better.”

1ST 14/1 CHARLIE FOLLOWES

“Moonraker – Not really built on his debut win for the yard back in May. Returned at HQ last time after a 2 month break and seems better for that. We think the drop back to 5f here will help as been a bit keen early on during his races while only had two AW runs so should have more to come on the surface. Tough race with a bit to prove at the moment but small e/w as certainly has the form to go well off this mark.”

1ST 14/1 MICK APPLEBY

“Break The Silence – Yet to win here but has run some fair races at the track. Stays a bit further so the drop back to 7f will be fine and off 54 is well-handicapped at the moment. Theo takes off 5lbs too and should be getting back to winning ways in races like this very soon. Likes to race up with the pace and that will hopefully be the plan again here. Should be knocking at the door.”

1ST 11/4 SCOTT DIXON

“Corazon Espinado – Ran well enough here yesterday and return to 7f should suit. See how he is as the day progresses but able to make a late call as to whether he lines up.”

1ST 3/1 SIMON DOW

“Magic Pulse – Likes it here (CD winner) and draw one is a plus. Been running in better races of late so the drop in grade will help. Did well in the Winter but has found the turf too quick and not totally ideal. Return to the AW a plus and as I say draw 1 is a bonus. Hoping for a much better showing as this is also only her second run back after a wind op.”

1ST 9/2 DAVE GRIFFITHS

“Art Of Swing – Ran well last time out on first run for the yard – just got chinned on the line at Kempton. Has come out of that race well and the drop back to 1m2 (from 1m 4f) here will suit. Rossa Ryan continues in the saddle and claims 3lbs so even though we are up 2lbs here we are still expecting a big run in what looks a poor race. We’d be disappointed if we are not taking this to be honest.”

1ST 5/2 LEE CARTER

“Dinsdale – Fit from the flat but makes his chase debut here. Worcester a nice easy track to get him going over the bigger obstacles and has been schooling well. Last win came off a 5lb lower mark over hurdles so a bit to find but seems well and at 5 years-old there should be a lot more to come. Won’t mind the ground, or if there is anymore rain. Trappy contest but if his jumping holds up then should be thereabouts.”

1ST 5/1 MICHAEL SCUDAMORE

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!

Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

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Get involved and tap into top daily info from 20 leading yards, below – Just drop us a line here and we can discuss any offers we’ve got on at the moment.

 

You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

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Beverley: Bullets Are Flying…….Take Cover!!

Beverley Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

 

2.45 – William Hill Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4

13/14 – Winning distance 1 length or less
13/14 – Had 3 or more runs that season
12/14 – Had won over 5f before
12/14 – Unplaced last time out
12/14 – Won 3 or more times before
10/14 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
10/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Run at Beverley before (5 won)
4/14 – Aged 3 years-old
3/14 – Ridden by Tom Eaves
3/14 – Trained by Bryan Smart
2/14 – Trained by Ian Semple
2/14 – Winning favourites
No winner from a double-figure draw in the last 12 runnings
9 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1 or 2
The horse from stall 9 has been placed in 6 of the last 12 runnings
Take Cover (3/1 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

TQ VERDICT: Hopefully there is one more big race left in the old-timer – TAKE COVER – who has been defying his age in much better races than this recently. He’s also the current champ of this race after landing the spoils 12 months ago by a length. We last saw him running 6th in the Nunthorpe last week and before that was second in the King George Stakes at Goodwood. Those were top efforts in Group One and Two company so the drop back into a Listed race should give this Dave Griffiths-trained runner a big chance – his recent form in this grade reads 1-2-1-1-1-1-5! Yes, it will be harder from draw 9 this year but he’s often very quickly away so hopefully can blast out and tack across. With 9 of the last 12 winners coming from stalls 1-4 then Mythmaker (1), Tricksy Spirit (2), Foolad (3) and Mirza (4) are worth noting. Trainer Bryan Smart also has a good record in the race with three wins in the last 14 so the already mentioned Mythmaker has another plus on it’s side. Final Venture (2nd), Kimberella (4th) and Mizra (5th) ran well in this race last year too so a case can certainly be made for this trio as well.

 

Sandown: Gosden and Stoute To Shine In Esher

SANDOWN Horse Racing Trends (Live ITV/RUK)

1.50 – 188Bet Extra Place Races Handicap Cl3 5f ITV4

10/10 – had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
8/10 – Rated between 80-93
8/10 – Had won over this 5f trip
7/10 – Had run at Sandown before (2 winners)
7/10 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
7/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Drawn 7 or higher
5/10 – Rated between 85-87
0/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/10 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

TQ VERDICT: Horses aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old have won 9 of the last 10 runnings of this race so the likes of Haddaf (3), Pettochside (9), Looks A Million (3), Signore Piccolo (7), May Return (3) and Shamshon (7) have that to overcome. With 9 of the last 10 winners also NOT winning last time out then this is something else to take into account, while the same amount carried 8-12 or more in weight. Rapid Applause will be popular with Frankie booked to ride this Mick Easterby runner – he’s on a three-timer after wins at Beverley and Hamilton but he’s also up a big-looking 7lbs for the last of those and up in class. So, the two that look better value against the likely favourite and Frankie horse are INTENSE ROMANCE (e/w) and RIO RONALDO (e/w). The first-named can be expected to have come on for a recent second at Carlisle after a few months off but still gets in here off the same mark. Trip and ground are fine, and her last winning run was also off this rating. Rio Ronaldo is a proven course and distance winner that will certainly enjoy the drop back to 5f after not seeing out 6f last time out at Windsor. Softer ground is also fine and he’s only 2lbs higher than when winning here at the track in early July.

2.25 – Best Odds Guaranteed At 188Bet Handicap Cl2 1m2f7y ITV4

13/16 – Ran at Haydock, York, Newmarket or Goodwood last time
13/16 – Had 4 or more runs that season
11/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 – Winning distance 1 length or less
10/16 – Won 3 or more times before
9/16 – Aged 4 years-old
8/16 – Had run at Sandown before (4 won)
8/16 – Carried 9-0 or more
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price
6/16 – Won last time out
3/16 –Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/16 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9.5/1

TQ VERDICT: The Hughie Morrison yard are in cracking form at the moment, so I’ll take a chance on their good run continuing into the weekend and into this race – they run the 6 year-old NOT SO SLEEPY (e/w). We last saw him running a close second at Ayr in a slightly worse race than this but with the horses clearly in much better form now then everything points to a big run. William Buick has been booked to ride and having been rated 100 last year then his current mark of 97 looks fair. He’s also won on soft ground in the past, so any more rain isn’t a worry – the yard boasts a decent 23% record with their older horses at the track too. The other yard with a cracking record here with their older horses is the Saeed Bin Suroor camp – they are 6 from 12 (50%). With that in mind their DUBAI HORIZON (e/w) is worth an interest too. A good winner at Ayr last time out and despite going up 9lbs for that won by an easy 3 ¼ lengths that day to suggest there is more to come. Almoreb, Master Carpenter, Communique and Mountain Angel are others to note, plus the 3 year-old History Writer must be given a squeak off just 8st-3lbs. He was a good winner over a mile here in August but would need to prove himself over this 1m2f – it’s the furthest he’s gone to date.

 

3.00 –188Bet Casino Atalanta Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m14y ITV4

14/16 – Had 3 or more runs that season
13/16 – Had won over a mile before
12/16 – Priced 9/2 or shorter
12/16 – Winning distance 1 ¼ or less
11/16 – Aged 3 years-old
11/16 – Placed last time out
11/16 – Had won 3 or more times before
11/16 – Had won a Listed or Group class race
10/16 – Rated between 98 and 108
6/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/16 – Had run at Sandown before
4/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 11 years is 5/1

TQ VERDICT: It will be interesting to see how the John Gosden-trained Laugh Aloud returns after a 455 absence. He was last seen romping away with a Group Three at Epsom back in June 17 but has clearly had his issues since. He’s rated 110, but it won’t be easy having to give 5lbs away to the Stoute filly – VERACIOUS – who is also rated 110. The yard has a cracking record in the race – with wins in 2013, 2012 and 2009 – and with just four career wins there should be a lot more to come from this classy 3 year-old. She was last seen running a fine third in the Group One Nassau Stakes at Goodwood and before that took the bronze medal in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. Both those runs in much better company make her the clear form pick here – Ryan Moore riding is the icing on the cake. Course and distance winner – Awesometank – might do best of the rest from the Haggas team. She looks a real improver and we know the track suits but does have 7lbs to find with the Stoute horse based on the official ratings. A case can be made for Winter Lightning too, but this Godolphin runner is also returning from a long break (6 months) so we’ll have to see if she needs the run.

 

3.35 –188Bet Solario Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f16y ITV4

15/16 – Never raced at Sandown before
15/16 – Had won at least one race before
15/16 – Had won over 6 or 7f before
13/16 – Foaled in Jan, Feb or March
11/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Had 2 or more previous runs
10/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Had won over 7f before
8/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Won by trainer John Gosden
Masar (11/8 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1

TQ VERDICT: Just the six runners head to post here and really all eyes will be on the John Gosden runner – TOO DARN HOT. This is a race the yard has targeted with success many times in recent years and after winning by an impressive 7 lengths at the track in August this well-bred juvenile went into many a notebook. That came over a mile, so we know he stays and I can’t see the drop back to 7f being an issue. It also came on good-to-soft ground, so conditions will suit and Frankie, who was riding that day too, will continue in the saddle. Yes, more is needed in this Group Three, which is a big step up in grade, but coming from this powerful yard then they clearly feel the horse is up to the task. The main challenge to the pick looks likely to come from the Martyn Meade-trained Confiding, who bolted-up on debut at Newbury and certainly wasn’t disgraced when third to the classy Dark Vision in the Group Two Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last time. Oisin Murphy takes over in the saddle and if the Gosden horse isn’t up to the rise in class then this one looks the obvious call to pick up the pieces. The unbeaten Arthur Kitt, Dunkeron and Watan should not be far away either but I’ll take Dettori and Gosden to team-up here on what could potentially be a very useful filly for the future.

 

Chester: Two LIVE Races From The Roodee……..

Chester (ITV/RUK)

2.05 – Foxy Bingo Fur-Ever Friends Handicap Cl2 7f122y ITV4

14/14 – Had won over at least 7f before
13/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/14 – Rated between 83-96
11/14 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
11/14 – Had raced at Chester before
11/14 – Aged 6 or younger
9/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – Unplaced last time out
6/14 – Drawn between stalls 11-14 (inc)
6/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/14 – Aged 3 years-old
5/14 – Ran at Chester last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Won last time out
2/14– Trained by Mark Brisbourne
2/14 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/14 – Trained by David Evans
Penwortham won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/1

TQ VERDICT: 11 of the last 14 winners of this race carried 8-13 or less so that’s a negative for the top four on the card – Oh This Is Us, Shady McCoy, Poet’s Society and Muntadab. Of that bunch the Mark Johnston-trained Poet’s Society went into the history books last week at York as this was the horse that provided the trainer with the win that saw him as the most successful handler ever in terms of sheer winners. He’s up 4lbs for that win and showed plenty of guts to get the job done – this will also be his 27th run of the year. With 11 of the last 14 winners aged 6 or younger this helps too, while the same number had raced at Chester at some stage in their careers as well. Johnston also has Lake Volta in the race and this 3 year-old certainly enters the mix after his close third (17 runners) at Goodwood last time out. Course and distance winner Baraweez seems to run his best races here so can’t be overlooked despite being an 8 year-old but the two I like here are DAIRA PRINCE (e/w) and ARCANADA (e/w). The first-named has been given stall 1 and that can help him get a good early position. He’ll need to bounce back from a poor run at Sandown last time, but he took a keen hold that day – the drop back to 7f should help on that front with the field likely to go much quickly from the offset here. Arcanada is also a course winner – albeit over slightly shorter – but even though he ran down the field at York last time behind Poet’s Society the drop back in trip and 3lb lower rating help. He’s drawn in stall 7 but that looks ok with the last three winners of this race coming from stalls 6 and 7! Trainer Tom Dascombe loves having winners at Chester and Hayley Turner has been booked to ride.

3.15 – Foxy Bingo Fast And Fabulous Chester Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m5f89y ITV4

15/15 – Won over 1m4f or further before
12/15 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
12/15 – Had won 3 or more times before
12/15 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
12/15 – Winning distance 1 ½ lengths or less
11/15 – Returned 5/1 or bigger in the betting
9/15 – Ran at either Pontefract, Ascot or Goodwood last time out
9/15 – Carried 9-3 or less
9/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Placed last time out
6/15 – Had run at Chester before (2 won)
4/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Winning favourite
1/15 – Winners from stall 1
My Reward won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

TQ VERDICT: It’s hard to get away from how easy the Ralph Beckett-trained Here And Now won last time out at York but this step up in grade into Listed company make life a lot harder. The big York straight seemed to suit him well last time too – the tight turns of Chester will be a totally new ball game. Having said that, he is a course winner here so he can handle the track, but he is rated a full 14lbs lower than DURETTO so off level weights the Andrew Balding 6 year-old gets the nod. Yes, he might need to prove his worth over this 1m6f trip, with all wins to date coming over shorter but he was a fair fifth in the Ormonde Stakes here in May (Group Three) and over all his Chester record is a good one 2-3-1-5. Any rain would be fine as won on heavy ground here last September but is just as effective on a good surface too. Proven course and distance winner – Hochfield – is another to consider from the Mark Johnston yard. He was just over 5 lengths behind Here And Now (4th) at York last time out but has a massive 11lbs weight pull so can be expected to get a lot closer – if not reverse that form.

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team