TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 20th April 2019

 

  • MUSSELBURGH: It’s Scottish Sprint Cup Day…………
  • HAYDOCK: Three LIVE Races To Take In…………
  • Trainers Quotes: Fellowes On The Move & Dreaming Of Derby Delight……….


Hi,

It’s been a busy week for the ITV Racing team with action from Newmarket and Lingfield, but there is no let-up this Saturday as they are at both Haydock and Musselburgh to take in seven races.

North of the border at Musselburgh, we’ve got four LIVE races that are headlined with the Scottish Sprint Cup at 3pm. A race that 11 of the last 15 winners carried 9-1 or less in, while 10 of the last 15 winners returned a double-figure price.

Then at Haydock it’s jumping all the way as they host their Challenger Series Final day with some competitive hurdles and chase contests to take in.

As always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you and as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes………Fellowes On The Move and Dreaming Of Derby Delight………….

Firstly, congratulations to the Charlie Fellowes yard as they are moving across Newmarket to the historic Bedford House Stables, that were formerly housed by Derby-winning handler Luca Cumani. This will mean a step into a bigger location for Charlie and the team and hopefully more horses – onwards and upwards!

Oh, and after their King Ottokar dotted up at Newbury last Friday, the Fellowes camp are dreaming of their own Derby success from their new yard. Their 3 year-old won that Newbury conditions race by just over 1 ½ lengths over 1m2f and looks a really promising sort. He’s entered in the Dante Stakes at York in May too, which has always been a decent Derby Trial in recent years – he’s now around 25/1 in the Derby ante-post betting.

 

 

Here’s a snippet of what members were told this week…………………………

Ornate had a good winter on the AW and had a decent little break recently to get ready for the turf. In really good form at home and loves the track here at HQ. Fit and well, plus still well handicapped on past form – rated in the 100’s before. Open race but confident of a good run and looks a nice e/w price. 2 1/2 stars”

1st 10/1 Dave Griffiths (TQ VIEW)

 

“Northern Beau – Consistent mare that is never far away in her races, but this is a step up in grade here again. Will love conditions but we are also back down in trip here. Likes to race up with the pace so we’ll try and make use of her stamina, it’s just whether something with a bit more toe does us in the closing stages. 1 1/2 stars.”

1st 11/1 Michael Scudamore

 

“Majestic Moon – Has been in good form at Southwell this year so far and is on a good handicap mark. He is very well at home and has a good draw today too. Therefore, we would hope he runs his race again and has an each-way chance at the right price.”

2nd 9/1 Julia Feilden  (TQ VIEW)

 

“Got Away – She has managed to achieve some consistency in her last three runs, at last. She is a mare with plenty of ability and there have been circumstances surrounding her failures, to begin with it was her scant regard for fences followed by feet issues early this season. She would ideally prefer softer ground than this, in a perfect world she wants 2m 4-6f on soft ground or 3m on good, but because she’s had relatively little racing this season as long as it’s safe she will take her chance. She is so laid back she’s horizontal hence the cheek pieces, she is also wearing a tongue tie which she has worn the last twice. Hopefully the ground won’t dry out too much – looks an open race so could sneak into a place at a nice price. 2nd 14/1 Oliver Sherwood

 

“Thistle Do Nicely – Was progressive prior to finishing mid division in the County Hurdle at the Festival. Stepping up in trip here should suit well and he shouldn’t be far away in what looks a competitive race. Looks a fair e/w price.” 2nd 11/1 Jamie Snowden

 

“Full Of Rogue – Second in a point last month, on first ever run, but makes debut under rules here in a NH Flat race. A nice sort that is still learning and we help by claiming 7lbs off his back with Morgan riding – he rode him last time too. Hard to know much about the others, but the King horse is obviously feared. Any rain will help but track and conditions look fine. These races are not ones to get too involved in but still looking for a solid run and could easily sneak a place.” 2nd 12/1 Tim Vaughan

 

“Red has been in cracking form on the AW at Southwell recently, but is back on the turf here. Rated 6lbs higher than last run, but we are 3lbs lower than last turf outing. Theo gets on well with the horse and continues to claim a handy 5lbs, while the drop back to 5f will be fine. All-in-all the horse is well and her win record on the turf (4 wins) is actually better than the AW and she’ll head here fitter than most. Slight unknown is the track, as it’s her first run here but no obvious reason why it won’t suit. If taking to the course, then looks to have a solid each-way chance.” 1st 3/1 Scott Dixon  (TQ VIEW)

 

“Vue Cavaliere – Ran well enough on her first start in a 0-130 off an opening mark of 121. Dropped 12lbs since and mark now much more fair – track against her last time, but a long-striding mare and should be more at home on this flat track. Capable jockey and has place claims here today. Capt Guy Disney rides.” 3rd 18/1 Suzy Smith

 

“Louis Vac Pouch – Made a promising start to his career with us – winning twice. However, took a tumble last time at Wetherby when beaten (none the worse for that though), but still wasn’t too bad a run until falling as the winner – Top Ville Ben – is useful. That also came over 3m, but just found that longer trip stretching him that day too so the drop back to 2m4f will suit. Bit to find with the main two in the market, but certainly feel he can run better than odds suggest. 1 1/2 stars.” 2nd 12/1 Henry Oliver

 

“Lucky Beggar – Back from a break but has been doing plenty of work at home and has gone well fresh in the past. Having 77th career run and at the age of 9 this is his level now. But returns on a fair mark (60) as ran well in the 70’s last season. Course winner at the track and David Allen knows him well so in this Class 6 (drop in grade) can go well. 18 other runners though and very competitive for the grade, but feel we head here fit and well and with a decent chance. Each-way.” 1st 6/1 Dave Griffiths

 

“Sands Chorus – Only second run for us. Fluffed the start a bit last time, but still ran okay to be 10th (of 16) at Donny. That was his first run back for a while so has certainly come on for it too. Up in trip here too (1m2f) but has won over this trip, so that’s fine. 3lbs lower helps and ease slightly in grade too. Open race but is certainly well-handicapped on old form – rated 90+ just a few years ago) so off 78 and with Theo’s 5lb claim then can’t be ruled out. Fell we can run much better than last time over this longer trip – small each-way. 1 1/2 stars.” 3rd 28/1 Scott Dixon

 

“Tulfarris – Has joined the yard from France. He has quite a high mark but I have been very happy with his work and conditions are perfect. We’ll learn a lot today, but feel he’ll run better than odds suggest. 1 1/2 stars.” 3rd 33/1 Charlie Fellowes

 

“College Oak – Is a nicely-bred type, who has been working well at home prior to this racecourse debut. Should have a chance here but will improve for the run both mentally and physically 2nd 10/1 Jamie Snowden

 

“Comeonfeeltheforce – New horse for us for some new owners so that’s nice. Not had the horse long – came to us from the Adam West yard – so we’ll find out more here. Going okay at home though and a bad grade race helps. 11 race maiden that has shown bits of form to suggest she can go well here, but we’ll be more confident after finding out more this time. Rossa Ryan is heading to Newbury now, so we are in the process of finding a new jockey to ride too!! 1 1/2 stars.” 1st 8/1 Lee Carter

 

“King Ottokar – Is a lovely horse who I rate very highly. This is a very tough race today, with the Godolphin horse setting the standard, but he is well-drawn (3) and will love conditions. Certainly, a horse to note this season though. 1 1/2 stars.” 1st 14/1 Charlie Fellowes

 

You can see the best of our recent quotes here

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MUSSELBURGH: It’s Scottish Sprint Cup Day North Of The Border……

MUSSELBURGH HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/ITV)

1.50 – Easter Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-95) 7f ITV4

Two previous runnings
Lualiwa (Kevin Ryan) won the race in 2018
Twin Appeal (David Baron) won the race in 2017
Last two winners from stalls 3 & 4
Last two winners carried between 9-3 and 9-4
Last two winners priced between 11/2 and 6/1
Trainer Garry Moss has a 50% record (5 from 10) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Rebecca Bastiman has a 19% record (15 from 78) with her 4+ year-olds at the track
The average winning SP in the last 2 runnings is 6/1

TQ VERDICT: Only two previous renewals – with the winners coming from stalls 3 and 4. Three Saints Bay (3) and Hayadh (4) are the horses coming out of those berths, while the last two winners carried 9-3 or 9-4. The Garry Moss yard (50%) and the Rebecca Bastiman (19%) camp also do well at the track with their 4+year-olds, so with that in mind the Moss-trained PORTH SWTAN and HAYADH catch the eye. Porth Swtan is a proven CD winner at the track and comes here having won well last time out at the track too. A 3lb rise looks fair for that last win he can be involved. Hayadh is also a past CD winner and was only 1 ¾ lengths behind Porth Swtan but gets in here on slightly better terms and with that run also coming off a 157-day break can be expected to come on for it. Of the rest, Raselasad and Lake Volta can be ruled out.

 

 

2.25 – Royal Mile Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 1m ITV4

Only 4 previous runnings
Trainers William Haggas, John Quinn, Richard Fahey and Mark Johnston are the past winners
All previous winners carried between 8-0 and 8-12
All previous winners rated between 81-86 (inc)
All previous winners came from stalls 2-6 (inclusive)
All previous winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
3 of the last 4 winners won this off a 5+month break
3 of the last 4 winners returned between 6/1 and 11/1
3 of the last 4 winners won last time out
No winning favourite yet
Trainer Mark Johnston has a 22% strike-rate (21 from 94) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey has a 21% strike-rate (17 from 81) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Iain Jardine is just 1 from 42 with his 3 year-olds at the track.
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 10/1

TQ VERDICT: The William Haggas yard have a decent 32% record with their runners at the track and also won this race in 2014. Therefore, it’s hard to ignore their POLITICISE here. This 3 year-old has been gelded since his last run at Windsor, but with just three career runs should have more to come. He won well at Newbury last September over 7f but should be a much stronger horse with another winter on his back and it’s interesting the Newmarket yard are sending him so far north. Of the rest, the Richard Fahey yard (21%) and Mark Johnston team (22%) boast decent records at the track, so their Coolagh Forest and Reggae Runner have to enter the mix too, while On The Line has been running well for the Hugo Palmer camp and shouldn’t be far away either.

 

 

3.00 – Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 5f ITV4

14/15 – Won over 5f before
12/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 5
12/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/15 –  Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15 – Carried 9-1 or less
10/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/15 – Had won between 2-5 times before
9/15 – Came from a double-figure stall
8/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
6/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Bryan Smart
2/15 – Trained by Mick Appleby
Line Of Reason (11/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 16/1
Trainer Mick Appleby has a 29% (6 from 21) record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 4 from 62 with his older horses at the track

TQ VERDICT: The 9 year-old Line Of Reason won this prize in 2017 and showed he retains much of his ability with a fine second at Beverley last time out. He’s 3lbs lower than that win too and with just 8-12 in weight can go well at a nice price. 12 of the last 15 runners had run in the last 4 weeks too, so the likes of Marine James, A Momentofmadness, Final Venture, Copper Knight, Savalas, Harome & Eeh Bah Gum will have that to overcome. The Mick Appleby yard have a good record in the race and also have a 29% record with their 4 year-olds or older at the track. With that in mind, their SAAHEQ (e/w) gets the nod. This 5 year-old gets in here with just 8-3 in weight and with 9 of the last 15 winners also coming from a double-figure stall then draw 15 looks in his favour too. He’ll be fitter than most after a spell on the AW this winter and having won 2 of his 6 runs on the turf then his record on the green stuff isn’t bad either. Of the rest, CD winner PRIMO’S COMET (e/w) ticks a lot of the main trends too so might also be worth a small interest off it’s light weight.

 

 

3.35 Queen’s Cup Stakes (A Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4 yo+) 1m6f ITV4

Only 4 previous runnings
Trainers, Jim Goldie, Brian Ellison, John Patrick Shananhan & Archie Watson are the past winners
All 4 winners returned a double figure price (10/1 to 16/1)
All 4 winners DIDN’T win last time out
All 4 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
No winning favourites as yet
3 of the last 4 winners draw between 3-4 (inc)
3 of the last 4 winners carried 8-12 or less in weight
Trainer Archie Watson has a 60% (3 from 5) record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Karl Burke has a 33% (3 from 9) record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 12.5/1

TQ VERDICT: Just the four past runnings of this race to go on, but all four returned a double-figure price, were aged between 5-7 years-old and failed to win last time out. It’s also interesting that despite being run over 1m6f, three of the last 4 winners came from stalls 3-4 (inc) so there is a small pattern building up here too. Mirsaale has stall 3, while Kellys Dino has the 4 draw. However, it’s hard to get away from the 60% strike-rate that the Archie Watson yard have with their 4 year-olds + at the track, so their ULSTER (e/w) is the call. This 4 year-old carrying only 8-10 in weight and heads here fit from the AW after two wins and two seconds of late. Yes, this will be his first run on the grass, but there is no reason to suggest it won’t suit. The consistent Austrian School can get involved too, but has become a hard horse to win with – trainer Mark Johnston also has Hochfeld and LUCKY DEAL (e/w) in the race and of that pair the last-named can do best. He’s another that ticks a lot of the main stats and will be fit from the AW too. His turf record is decent too, with 10 runs and 7 top three finishes (2 wins).

 

 

HAYDOCK: Four Races From The Berkshire Track…………

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/ITV)

2.05 – Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 1m7f ITV4

Three previous runnings
Trainers Nigel Twiston-Davies, Tom George and Donald McCain have won the race before
All 3 previous winners carried 10-4 or less in weight
All 3 previous winners returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
All 3 winners ran 1 ½ months or less ago
All 3 winners rated between 115-119 (inc)
All 3 winners DIDN’T win last time out
2 of the 3 winners were ridden by conditional claiming jockeys
Trainer Donald McCain is just 6 from 58 (10%) with his hurdlers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 8/1

TQ VERDICT: It’s interesting that all three previous winners of this race all won with a light weight, so the three at the foot of the weights – Peterborough, Tim Rocco and Teaser – who all carry 10-5 or less are worth a second look. Of that trio, the Oliver Greenall-trained TIM ROCCO (e/w) looks worthy of some support with jockey Paddy Brennan booked to ride. He’s won two of his last three and despite being a tad disappointing last time the Ludlow track might not have suited and back at a more galloping and open venue he should like it more – his recent wins came at Donny and Newcastle, which are both left-handed tracks, like Haydock. Of the rest, the Henry Oliver runner HIJAN is another to have on side after coming here off the back off two good wins. 2 of the last 3 runnings of this race have also been won by conditional jockeys – Jason Dixon rides this 6 year-old and claims a handy 7lbs. A 6lbs rise for his recent 4 ½ length win at Ludlow looks fair and he can go well again. Richard Johnson riding Cubswin is sure to be popular, while the consistent trio of Arthington, Cause Toujours and Red Tornado are others that can get in the mix.

 

2.40 – Challenger Staying Chase Series Final Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m 1 1/2f ITV4

Three previous runnings
Trainers Lucy Wadham, Alan King and Tom George have won the race before
No winning favourite yet
All 3 winners aged between 8-10 years-old
All 3 winners carried between 11-0 and 11-10
All 3 winners ran within the last month
All 3 winners rated between 125-132
All 3 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Trainer Tom George is just 2 from 22 with his chasers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 12/1

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Tom George is only 2 from 22 with his chasers at the track so his Sumkindofking is overlooked based on that. Expect the front-running Loose Chips to take them along but at the age of 13 he’ll do well to stay there. It’s interesting that trainer Alan King runs two – Mahlermade and Salmanazar – both are consistent sorts, but don’t win enough at the moment for me. There was a sign that DUEL AT DAWN (e/w) was returning to some sort of form last time, when third at Exeter, so at a nice price he’s worth an each-way interest off a 2lb lower mark. Quarenta is another to like after his win at Warwick last time, but he only got home by a neck and a 5lb rise makes life harder. So, the safer call looks to be the only course inner in the field – THE PADDY PIE. This 6 year-old has finished in the top two in his last four and even though he could do with brushing up his jumping the step up to 3m should help on that score, with things happening a bit slower.

 

3.15 – Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV4

Three previous runnings
Trainers Nick Williams, Jonjo O’Neill and Stuart Edmunds have won this race before
No winning favourite as yet
All 3 winners placed in the top 3 last time out
All 3 winners ran within the last 2 months
All 3 winners aged 6 or 7 years-old
All 3 winners returned between 8/1 and 16/1
2 of the 3 winners carried 10-9 or less
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 12/1
Trainer Emma Lavelle has a 33% record (5 from 15) with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Ben Pauling has a 50% record (2 from 4) with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Henry Daly is 0 from 14 with his hurdlers at the track

TQ VERDICT: Tim’s TRIXTER (e/w) ran well for much of the way last time out at Sandown in a decent race and was actually only beaten 6 lengths. The longer trip looks fine and the better ground will certainly be a bonus. He’s off the same mark but in this slightly easier race feel he’s got more to come – all three of the recent winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old so this 6 year-old also ticks this trend. Of the rest, 2 of the last 3 winners also carried just 10-9 or less, so the three at the foot of the handicap here – Faithful Mount, Sliding Doors and Sunnytahliategan fit the bill on that score – it’s interesting that ALL three are also trained by Ian Williams! If the prices allow, it might be worth having a split stake interest in them all. Creep Desbois is another to note that’s been running well of late, while if you can forgive it’s last run then the Fergal O’Brien runner – Skidoosh – has certainly got the form to go well too – the Ben Pauling yard also have a decent 50% record with their hurdlers here and handle the last two mentioned. Finally, the other yard with a good record with their hurdlers at the track is Emma Lavelle (33%), so her BOREHAM BILL (e/w) is the other one to have on side. This 7 year-old was running well last time over a longer trip until just getting tired in the closing stages. The return to 3m will help and with only 9 runs over the sticks should have more to give.

 

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • MUSSELBURGH: It’s Scottish Sprint Cup Day…………
  • HAYDOCK: Three LIVE Races To Take In…………
  • Trainers Quotes: Fellowes On The Move & Dreaming Of Derby Delight……….


Hi,

It’s been a busy week for the ITV Racing team with action from Newmarket and Lingfield, but there is no let-up this Saturday as they are at both Haydock and Musselburgh to take in seven races.

North of the border at Musselburgh, we’ve got four LIVE races that are headlined with the Scottish Sprint Cup at 3pm. A race that 11 of the last 15 winners carried 9-1 or less in, while 10 of the last 15 winners returned a double-figure price.

Then at Haydock it’s jumping all the way as they host their Challenger Series Final day with some competitive hurdles and chase contests to take in.

As always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you and as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes………Fellowes On The Move and Dreaming Of Derby Delight………….

Firstly, congratulations to the Charlie Fellowes yard as they are moving across Newmarket to the historic Bedford House Stables, that were formerly housed by Derby-winning handler Luca Cumani. This will mean a step into a bigger location for Charlie and the team and hopefully more horses – onwards and upwards!

Oh, and after their King Ottokar dotted up at Newbury last Friday, the Fellowes camp are dreaming of their own Derby success from their new yard. Their 3 year-old won that Newbury conditions race by just over 1 ½ lengths over 1m2f and looks a really promising sort. He’s entered in the Dante Stakes at York in May too, which has always been a decent Derby Trial in recent years – he’s now around 25/1 in the Derby ante-post betting.

 

Here’s a snippet of what members were told this week…………………………

Ornate had a good winter on the AW and had a decent little break recently to get ready for the turf. In really good form at home and loves the track here at HQ. Fit and well, plus still well handicapped on past form – rated in the 100’s before. Open race but confident of a good run and looks a nice e/w price. 2 1/2 stars”

1st 10/1 Dave Griffiths (TQ VIEW)

 

“Northern Beau – Consistent mare that is never far away in her races, but this is a step up in grade here again. Will love conditions but we are also back down in trip here. Likes to race up with the pace so we’ll try and make use of her stamina, it’s just whether something with a bit more toe does us in the closing stages. 1 1/2 stars.”

1st 11/1 Michael Scudamore

 

“Majestic Moon – Has been in good form at Southwell this year so far and is on a good handicap mark. He is very well at home and has a good draw today too. Therefore, we would hope he runs his race again and has an each-way chance at the right price.”

2nd 9/1 Julia Feilden  (TQ VIEW)

 

“Got Away – She has managed to achieve some consistency in her last three runs, at last. She is a mare with plenty of ability and there have been circumstances surrounding her failures, to begin with it was her scant regard for fences followed by feet issues early this season. She would ideally prefer softer ground than this, in a perfect world she wants 2m 4-6f on soft ground or 3m on good, but because she’s had relatively little racing this season as long as it’s safe she will take her chance. She is so laid back she’s horizontal hence the cheek pieces, she is also wearing a tongue tie which she has worn the last twice. Hopefully the ground won’t dry out too much – looks an open race so could sneak into a place at a nice price. 2nd 14/1 Oliver Sherwood

 

“Thistle Do Nicely – Was progressive prior to finishing mid division in the County Hurdle at the Festival. Stepping up in trip here should suit well and he shouldn’t be far away in what looks a competitive race. Looks a fair e/w price.” 2nd 11/1 Jamie Snowden

 

“Full Of Rogue – Second in a point last month, on first ever run, but makes debut under rules here in a NH Flat race. A nice sort that is still learning and we help by claiming 7lbs off his back with Morgan riding – he rode him last time too. Hard to know much about the others, but the King horse is obviously feared. Any rain will help but track and conditions look fine. These races are not ones to get too involved in but still looking for a solid run and could easily sneak a place.” 2nd 12/1 Tim Vaughan

 

“Red has been in cracking form on the AW at Southwell recently, but is back on the turf here. Rated 6lbs higher than last run, but we are 3lbs lower than last turf outing. Theo gets on well with the horse and continues to claim a handy 5lbs, while the drop back to 5f will be fine. All-in-all the horse is well and her win record on the turf (4 wins) is actually better than the AW and she’ll head here fitter than most. Slight unknown is the track, as it’s her first run here but no obvious reason why it won’t suit. If taking to the course, then looks to have a solid each-way chance.” 1st 3/1 Scott Dixon  (TQ VIEW)

 

“Vue Cavaliere – Ran well enough on her first start in a 0-130 off an opening mark of 121. Dropped 12lbs since and mark now much more fair – track against her last time, but a long-striding mare and should be more at home on this flat track. Capable jockey and has place claims here today. Capt Guy Disney rides.” 3rd 18/1 Suzy Smith

 

“Louis Vac Pouch – Made a promising start to his career with us – winning twice. However, took a tumble last time at Wetherby when beaten (none the worse for that though), but still wasn’t too bad a run until falling as the winner – Top Ville Ben – is useful. That also came over 3m, but just found that longer trip stretching him that day too so the drop back to 2m4f will suit. Bit to find with the main two in the market, but certainly feel he can run better than odds suggest. 1 1/2 stars.” 2nd 12/1 Henry Oliver

 

“Lucky Beggar – Back from a break but has been doing plenty of work at home and has gone well fresh in the past. Having 77th career run and at the age of 9 this is his level now. But returns on a fair mark (60) as ran well in the 70’s last season. Course winner at the track and David Allen knows him well so in this Class 6 (drop in grade) can go well. 18 other runners though and very competitive for the grade, but feel we head here fit and well and with a decent chance. Each-way.” 1st 6/1 Dave Griffiths

 

“Sands Chorus – Only second run for us. Fluffed the start a bit last time, but still ran okay to be 10th (of 16) at Donny. That was his first run back for a while so has certainly come on for it too. Up in trip here too (1m2f) but has won over this trip, so that’s fine. 3lbs lower helps and ease slightly in grade too. Open race but is certainly well-handicapped on old form – rated 90+ just a few years ago) so off 78 and with Theo’s 5lb claim then can’t be ruled out. Fell we can run much better than last time over this longer trip – small each-way. 1 1/2 stars.” 3rd 28/1 Scott Dixon

 

“Tulfarris – Has joined the yard from France. He has quite a high mark but I have been very happy with his work and conditions are perfect. We’ll learn a lot today, but feel he’ll run better than odds suggest. 1 1/2 stars.” 3rd 33/1 Charlie Fellowes

 

“College Oak – Is a nicely-bred type, who has been working well at home prior to this racecourse debut. Should have a chance here but will improve for the run both mentally and physically 2nd 10/1 Jamie Snowden

 

“Comeonfeeltheforce – New horse for us for some new owners so that’s nice. Not had the horse long – came to us from the Adam West yard – so we’ll find out more here. Going okay at home though and a bad grade race helps. 11 race maiden that has shown bits of form to suggest she can go well here, but we’ll be more confident after finding out more this time. Rossa Ryan is heading to Newbury now, so we are in the process of finding a new jockey to ride too!! 1 1/2 stars.” 1st 8/1 Lee Carter

 

“King Ottokar – Is a lovely horse who I rate very highly. This is a very tough race today, with the Godolphin horse setting the standard, but he is well-drawn (3) and will love conditions. Certainly, a horse to note this season though. 1 1/2 stars.” 1st 14/1 Charlie Fellowes

 

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MUSSELBURGH: It’s Scottish Sprint Cup Day North Of The Border……

MUSSELBURGH HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/ITV)

1.50 – Easter Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-95) 7f ITV4

Two previous runnings
Lualiwa (Kevin Ryan) won the race in 2018
Twin Appeal (David Baron) won the race in 2017
Last two winners from stalls 3 & 4
Last two winners carried between 9-3 and 9-4
Last two winners priced between 11/2 and 6/1
Trainer Garry Moss has a 50% record (5 from 10) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Rebecca Bastiman has a 19% record (15 from 78) with her 4+ year-olds at the track
The average winning SP in the last 2 runnings is 6/1

TQ VERDICT: Only two previous renewals – with the winners coming from stalls 3 and 4. Three Saints Bay (3) and Hayadh (4) are the horses coming out of those berths, while the last two winners carried 9-3 or 9-4. The Garry Moss yard (50%) and the Rebecca Bastiman (19%) camp also do well at the track with their 4+year-olds, so with that in mind the Moss-trained PORTH SWTAN and HAYADH catch the eye. Porth Swtan is a proven CD winner at the track and comes here having won well last time out at the track too. A 3lb rise looks fair for that last win he can be involved. Hayadh is also a past CD winner and was only 1 ¾ lengths behind Porth Swtan but gets in here on slightly better terms and with that run also coming off a 157-day break can be expected to come on for it. Of the rest, Raselasad and Lake Volta can be ruled out.

 

2.25 – Royal Mile Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 1m ITV4

Only 4 previous runnings
Trainers William Haggas, John Quinn, Richard Fahey and Mark Johnston are the past winners
All previous winners carried between 8-0 and 8-12
All previous winners rated between 81-86 (inc)
All previous winners came from stalls 2-6 (inclusive)
All previous winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
3 of the last 4 winners won this off a 5+month break
3 of the last 4 winners returned between 6/1 and 11/1
3 of the last 4 winners won last time out
No winning favourite yet
Trainer Mark Johnston has a 22% strike-rate (21 from 94) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey has a 21% strike-rate (17 from 81) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Iain Jardine is just 1 from 42 with his 3 year-olds at the track.
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 10/1

TQ VERDICT: The William Haggas yard have a decent 32% record with their runners at the track and also won this race in 2014. Therefore, it’s hard to ignore their POLITICISE here. This 3 year-old has been gelded since his last run at Windsor, but with just three career runs should have more to come. He won well at Newbury last September over 7f but should be a much stronger horse with another winter on his back and it’s interesting the Newmarket yard are sending him so far north. Of the rest, the Richard Fahey yard (21%) and Mark Johnston team (22%) boast decent records at the track, so their Coolagh Forest and Reggae Runner have to enter the mix too, while On The Line has been running well for the Hugo Palmer camp and shouldn’t be far away either.

 

3.00 – Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 5f ITV4

14/15 – Won over 5f before
12/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 5
12/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/15 –  Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15 – Carried 9-1 or less
10/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/15 – Had won between 2-5 times before
9/15 – Came from a double-figure stall
8/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
6/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Bryan Smart
2/15 – Trained by Mick Appleby
Line Of Reason (11/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 16/1
Trainer Mick Appleby has a 29% (6 from 21) record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 4 from 62 with his older horses at the track

TQ VERDICT: The 9 year-old Line Of Reason won this prize in 2017 and showed he retains much of his ability with a fine second at Beverley last time out. He’s 3lbs lower than that win too and with just 8-12 in weight can go well at a nice price. 12 of the last 15 runners had run in the last 4 weeks too, so the likes of Marine James, A Momentofmadness, Final Venture, Copper Knight, Savalas, Harome & Eeh Bah Gum will have that to overcome. The Mick Appleby yard have a good record in the race and also have a 29% record with their 4 year-olds or older at the track. With that in mind, their SAAHEQ (e/w) gets the nod. This 5 year-old gets in here with just 8-3 in weight and with 9 of the last 15 winners also coming from a double-figure stall then draw 15 looks in his favour too. He’ll be fitter than most after a spell on the AW this winter and having won 2 of his 6 runs on the turf then his record on the green stuff isn’t bad either. Of the rest, CD winner PRIMO’S COMET (e/w) ticks a lot of the main trends too so might also be worth a small interest off it’s light weight.

 

3.35 Queen’s Cup Stakes (A Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4 yo+) 1m6f ITV4

Only 4 previous runnings
Trainers, Jim Goldie, Brian Ellison, John Patrick Shananhan & Archie Watson are the past winners
All 4 winners returned a double figure price (10/1 to 16/1)
All 4 winners DIDN’T win last time out
All 4 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
No winning favourites as yet
3 of the last 4 winners draw between 3-4 (inc)
3 of the last 4 winners carried 8-12 or less in weight
Trainer Archie Watson has a 60% (3 from 5) record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Karl Burke has a 33% (3 from 9) record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 12.5/1

TQ VERDICT: Just the four past runnings of this race to go on, but all four returned a double-figure price, were aged between 5-7 years-old and failed to win last time out. It’s also interesting that despite being run over 1m6f, three of the last 4 winners came from stalls 3-4 (inc) so there is a small pattern building up here too. Mirsaale has stall 3, while Kellys Dino has the 4 draw. However, it’s hard to get away from the 60% strike-rate that the Archie Watson yard have with their 4 year-olds + at the track, so their ULSTER (e/w) is the call. This 4 year-old carrying only 8-10 in weight and heads here fit from the AW after two wins and two seconds of late. Yes, this will be his first run on the grass, but there is no reason to suggest it won’t suit. The consistent Austrian School can get involved too, but has become a hard horse to win with – trainer Mark Johnston also has Hochfeld and LUCKY DEAL (e/w) in the race and of that pair the last-named can do best. He’s another that ticks a lot of the main stats and will be fit from the AW too. His turf record is decent too, with 10 runs and 7 top three finishes (2 wins).

 

HAYDOCK: Four Races From The Berkshire Track…………

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/ITV)

2.05 – Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 1m7f ITV4

Three previous runnings
Trainers Nigel Twiston-Davies, Tom George and Donald McCain have won the race before
All 3 previous winners carried 10-4 or less in weight
All 3 previous winners returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
All 3 winners ran 1 ½ months or less ago
All 3 winners rated between 115-119 (inc)
All 3 winners DIDN’T win last time out
2 of the 3 winners were ridden by conditional claiming jockeys
Trainer Donald McCain is just 6 from 58 (10%) with his hurdlers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 8/1

TQ VERDICT: It’s interesting that all three previous winners of this race all won with a light weight, so the three at the foot of the weights – Peterborough, Tim Rocco and Teaser – who all carry 10-5 or less are worth a second look. Of that trio, the Oliver Greenall-trained TIM ROCCO (e/w) looks worthy of some support with jockey Paddy Brennan booked to ride. He’s won two of his last three and despite being a tad disappointing last time the Ludlow track might not have suited and back at a more galloping and open venue he should like it more – his recent wins came at Donny and Newcastle, which are both left-handed tracks, like Haydock. Of the rest, the Henry Oliver runner HIJAN is another to have on side after coming here off the back off two good wins. 2 of the last 3 runnings of this race have also been won by conditional jockeys – Jason Dixon rides this 6 year-old and claims a handy 7lbs. A 6lbs rise for his recent 4 ½ length win at Ludlow looks fair and he can go well again. Richard Johnson riding Cubswin is sure to be popular, while the consistent trio of Arthington, Cause Toujours and Red Tornado are others that can get in the mix.

 

2.40 – Challenger Staying Chase Series Final Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m 1 1/2f ITV4

Three previous runnings
Trainers Lucy Wadham, Alan King and Tom George have won the race before
No winning favourite yet
All 3 winners aged between 8-10 years-old
All 3 winners carried between 11-0 and 11-10
All 3 winners ran within the last month
All 3 winners rated between 125-132
All 3 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Trainer Tom George is just 2 from 22 with his chasers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 12/1

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Tom George is only 2 from 22 with his chasers at the track so his Sumkindofking is overlooked based on that. Expect the front-running Loose Chips to take them along but at the age of 13 he’ll do well to stay there. It’s interesting that trainer Alan King runs two – Mahlermade and Salmanazar – both are consistent sorts, but don’t win enough at the moment for me. There was a sign that DUEL AT DAWN (e/w) was returning to some sort of form last time, when third at Exeter, so at a nice price he’s worth an each-way interest off a 2lb lower mark. Quarenta is another to like after his win at Warwick last time, but he only got home by a neck and a 5lb rise makes life harder. So, the safer call looks to be the only course inner in the field – THE PADDY PIE. This 6 year-old has finished in the top two in his last four and even though he could do with brushing up his jumping the step up to 3m should help on that score, with things happening a bit slower.

 

3.15 – Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV4

Three previous runnings
Trainers Nick Williams, Jonjo O’Neill and Stuart Edmunds have won this race before
No winning favourite as yet
All 3 winners placed in the top 3 last time out
All 3 winners ran within the last 2 months
All 3 winners aged 6 or 7 years-old
All 3 winners returned between 8/1 and 16/1
2 of the 3 winners carried 10-9 or less
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 12/1
Trainer Emma Lavelle has a 33% record (5 from 15) with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Ben Pauling has a 50% record (2 from 4) with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Henry Daly is 0 from 14 with his hurdlers at the track

TQ VERDICT: Tim’s TRIXTER (e/w) ran well for much of the way last time out at Sandown in a decent race and was actually only beaten 6 lengths. The longer trip looks fine and the better ground will certainly be a bonus. He’s off the same mark but in this slightly easier race feel he’s got more to come – all three of the recent winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old so this 6 year-old also ticks this trend. Of the rest, 2 of the last 3 winners also carried just 10-9 or less, so the three at the foot of the handicap here – Faithful Mount, Sliding Doors and Sunnytahliategan fit the bill on that score – it’s interesting that ALL three are also trained by Ian Williams! If the prices allow, it might be worth having a split stake interest in them all. Creep Desbois is another to note that’s been running well of late, while if you can forgive it’s last run then the Fergal O’Brien runner – Skidoosh – has certainly got the form to go well too – the Ben Pauling yard also have a decent 50% record with their hurdlers here and handle the last two mentioned. Finally, the other yard with a good record with their hurdlers at the track is Emma Lavelle (33%), so her BOREHAM BILL (e/w) is the other one to have on side. This 7 year-old was running well last time over a longer trip until just getting tired in the closing stages. The return to 3m will help and with only 9 runs over the sticks should have more to give.

 

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team