TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 21st July 2018

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 21st July 2018

 

  • MARKET RASEN: It’s Summer Plate Day in Lincolnshire…….
  • NEWBURY: Four LIVE Races From The Berkshire Track…….
  • NEWMARKET: One LIVE Race From HQ……………
  • TQ: Jane Gives the Right ‘Intelligence’ To Members……..

 

Hi,

Well this decent weather is still holding up. I know some parts of the country have had a bit of rain, but not much and really this has got to be the best summer we’ve had for a long time – right? Hopefully I’ve not jinxed it!!

Anyway, moving on to this Saturday and plenty to look forward to again with the ITV cameras taking in seven races across three venues. We’ve four at Newbury with the Group Three Hackwood Stakes and also the lucrative Weatherbys Super Sprint the two features. We’ve also one race at Newmarket – the Listed Aphrodite Stakes – a contest trainers John Gosden and Luca Cumani have won five times between them in the last 14 years and both are represented again this year.

Plus, jumping fans get their fix too as Market Rasen stages their biggest day on the calendar with the Summer Plate and Summer Hurdles the main races. The Summer Plate has attracted another decent field – including last year’s winner, Alcala, who will be looking to become the first back-to-back winner of the race.

All-in-all, a fascinating day to look forward to with SEVEN races to enjoy from Newbury, Newmarket and Market Rasen – as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you and as always, we’ve got it all covered with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

 

Have a Great Weekend and enjoy the Sun!!

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes: Naval Intelligence Impressive at 33/1

Last weekend’s email went out before we had the chance to shout about Jane Chapple-Hyam’s top 33/1 winner – Naval Intelligence – at the end of last week at Newmarket. Her horse made it two-from-two after beating a decent Listed field at HQ over a mile and there should be more to come from this 3 year-old. He’s not got any entries at the moment but having now won over 7f and a mile then Jane will have options with him, plus his breeding suggests he might even get further in time. Exciting times for the yard, for sure!

After that we’ve also had another good week with winners for the Mark Loughnane, Mick Appleby, Michael Scudamore, Jamie Snowden and Harry Dunlop yards and at good prices too.

Scott’s San Souci Bay went in at 25/1 at Chester last Friday, while Michael Scudamore told us his Dinsdale would go well – he won at a tasty 9/1. The good form of the Jamie Snowden yard continued with his Lord Topper winning easily too – certainly a horse to note going forward, plus after a tough month for the Dunlop’s it was nice to see Harry get on the scoresheet with Flight of Fantasy at 6/1.

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!

Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

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You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

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Market Rasen: The July Cup Is The Standout Race at HQ

Market Rasen Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.05 – 188Bet Summer Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f ITV3

14/16 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
14/16 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
13/16 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/16 – Had won 2 or more times already over hurdles
10/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/16 – Had run at Market Rasen before
2/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/16 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 11 winners carried 11-5 or less
8 of the last 12 winners carried 11-0 or less
7 of the last 12 winners retuned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Evan Williams won this race 12 months ago so anything he runs should be noted. At this stage he’s got the improving Voodoo Doll entered, who has won his last three in gutsy fashion. He’s up in class here but also up another 6lbs in the ratings but is clearly a horse loving life at the moment and with only 10-7 can’t be overlooked. Court Minstrel could also run for Evan Williams. Now 11 years-old, this horse is well-handicapped on old form and the last time he ran off a mark of 142 he won! He’s a strong-travelling sort that should be a lot fitter for a recent run at Newton Abbot and despite his advancing years connections must still feel he’s got a race left in him. Course and distance winner L’Inganno Felice has won three of his four hurdles races, but this will be a lot more competitive, so you’d think more is needed, but it is worth noting the Iain Jardine yard are 3-from-9 (33%) with their hurdlers here. The Dan Skelton camp are going great guns at the moment too and boast a decent 31% record with their hurdlers at the track – they also won this race in 2016. Their Fair Mountain would be a big player for them after winning well at Bangor and Uttoxeter recently. Those were in novice hurdles though so this would be his first run into a handicap but connections seem to like him and he was a useful sort on the flat over in Germany. Parthenius and Mister Universum could be other entries for the Skeltons. However, another yard that have won well in this race is the Dr Richard Newland team. They won the prize in 2015 and have a strong hand with Hassle and ARTFUL ARTIST. The first-named was a good winner over course and distance in June and ran well on the flat last time when 8th (of 19) in the Ascot Stakes. He is rated 9lbs higher than his last win though so more is needed. So, the call is Artful Artist. This one is the mount of Sam Twiston-Davies and has won very well the last day at Southwell. He gets into this handicap with only 10-5 in weight and that will be a huge help in conditions. Trip and ground look ideal and he looks a type that has been laid out for the race.

 

3.15 – 188Bet Summer Plate (Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m6f110y ITV3

16/16 – Had run within the last 3 months
14/16 – Had won over at least 2m3f (chase) before
14/16 – Aged 7 or older
12/16 – Had won 2 or more chases before
11/16 – Carried 10-13 or less
10/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/16 – Had run at Market Rasen before
9/16 – Won their previous race
6/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
4/16 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/16 – Ran at Stratford last time out
3/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Ran at Ffos Las last time out (2 of the last 7)
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill won the race in 2009 and 2014
8 of the last 10 winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
Alcala won the race in 2017

TQ VERDICT: A cracking renewal. The hero from 12 months ago – Alcala – will be looking become the first back-to-back winner of the race and is only rated a pound higher this time. The Paul Nicholls-trained runner should be spot-on for this too after a fair second to another possible runner and stablemate – Bagad Bihoue – at Newton Abbot last month. However, despite only being rated a pound higher does have 11-12 in weight to carry this time (carried 11-7 last year) and that might just be his downfall. Wadswick Court was less than a length back in second last year so would be respected from the Peter Bowen yard who has won this race five times before. Days Of Heaven also ran in last year’s race (7th) but is 6lbs lower this time and despite being pulled-up last time behind Bagad Bihoue this Henderson runner was still going well until making a bad mistake so can’t be discounted either. Geordie Des Champs, Shantou Village and Not A Role Model are others that a case can be made for but with the three I like here are TOO MANY DIAMONDS, SUMKINDOFKING and MORE BUCK’S. The first-named comes from the in-form Dan Skelton yard and has been a popular horse for summer jumping fans over the last few months after winning his last three. He’s up 9lbs again here but still only gets in with 10-0 in weight as this is a much better race. He’s won two of those three recent wins with 12-0 and 12-3 so this will feel like a featherweight. Skelton has a decent 27% record with this chasers at the track and brother Harry gets the leg-up. Sumkindofking hails from the Tom George yard that have a 38% record with their chasers here. He was a good winner over course and distance last time and a 4lb rise for that win looks fair. He’s also gets in with a light weight of just 10-6. Finally, as mentioned the Peter Bowen yard have won this race five times in the past so their More Buck’s is another to note. Formerly with Paul Nicholls, this 8 year-old won well on debut for his new yard up at Perth and with only 10-5 to carry is yet another that has a light burden. He stays a bit further than this trip so that will be made full use of and so far, has finished in the top three in 8 of his 13 races over fences.

Newbury: It’s John Smith’s Cup Day on the Knavesmire…….

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.50 – bet365 Stakes (Registered as The Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV3

9/13 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
9/13 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
9/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/13 – Placed favourites
8/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or  more
8/13 – Had run at the track before
8/13 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/13 – Had won a Group race before
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won 3 of the last 8 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

TQ VERDICT: The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin have won three of the last 8 runnings of this race and with two entries it looks like they are going for it again. Their first runner, Emirates Flyer, was a fair fourth last time out at Chelmsford over a mile and the return to 1m2f looks sure to suit – however, for me, their other runner – EMOTIONLESS – looks to have a better chance. This 5 year-old returns from around 6 months off but had gone well in better races than this over in Meydan so should enjoy the drop in grade. William Buick rides and coming from the in-form Charlie Appleby yard then we can expect him to be fully tuned-up for this return to the track. Of the rest, it won’t be easy for First Sitting to give weight away, so this Chris Wall horse is overlooked. Course winners, Spark Plug and Desert Encounter, can’t be discounted on past form, while Autocratic is another that is weighted to go well but simply doesn’t win enough for me. I’ll be sticking with Godolphin here in a race they clearly love to target.

2.25 – JLT Cup Cl2 (3yo+) 2m ½f ITV3

No previous runnings
Trainer Hughie Morrison is just 3 from 37 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer John Gosden has a 17% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track

TQ VERDICT: All eyes here will be on a rare runner at the track from the Willie Mullins stable – Stratum – who we last saw running third in the Ascot Stakes over 2m4f last month. Jockey Robert Winston keeps the ride and the fact we know he stays further than this 2m trip could be a big asset. The ground will be fine too, and he’s had a month to get over those Ascot exertions. He looks a big player but is also likely to be poor value based on his connections. Owner Hamdan Al Maktoum has two in the race so the fact their number one stable jockey – Jim Crowley – opts to ride the Owen Burrows-trained Quloob would lean you to thinking this is the better of his runners – Almoghared is their other entry, who hails from the John Gosden team and is ridden by Andrea Atzeni. However, I suspect the choice might have been a tough one for Crowley as both head here off the back of only average recent runs – his choice would probably be made based on which one would have come on more for that last outing. Both look to have good, but similar chances, to me. Amazing Red is another to consider with Frankie riding. He actually beat Quloob by almost 7 lengths at Newmarket two starts back over 1m6f and can be expected to have his measure again. Yes, Quloob will be better for the run (first for 295 days) and the longer trip will suit but it’s still a fair bit of ground to make up. Amazing Red has since flopped in the Northumberland Plate but that was on the AW at Newcastle and might not have totally suited. So, I prefer to take a chance on two of the bigger-priced runners. The Hughie Morrison-trained BUZZ heads here on a three-timer after wins at Kempton and looks interesting upped to 2 miles. Those wins came over 1m3f and 1m4f so stamina is an unknown, but connections clearly feel he’s up to it. He gets in with just 8-11 in weight and regular pilot – Liam Keniry – continues in the saddle. Percy World is another unexposed sort that can’t be overlooked but over this trip we’ve only one proven distance winner in the field – step forward COEUR DE LION. This Alan King runner was a decent sixth in the Ascot Stakes so doesn’t have much ground to make up with Stratum but the slight drop in trip will help and he’s also run well here at Newbury this season, when a close second back in April. 8-9 on his back means he gets weight from most of the others and that will help in conditions, plus – as mentioned – we know he’s got the proven stamina for this gruelling trip.

3.00 – bet365 Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f8y ITV3

13/14 – Won over 6f before
11/14 – Aged 5 or younger
11/14 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had won 4 or more times before
10/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Placed favourites
6/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/14 – Had won a Group race before
6/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winners from stall 8
2/14 – Trained by Hughie Morrison
2/14 – Trained by William Haggas
2/14 – Trained by Charles Hills (2 of last 3)
2/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
1/14 – Winners from stall 1
8 of the last 11 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2

TQ VERDICT: It might be worth giving another chance to the Charles Hills-trained EQUILATERAL here. The yard has a top record in this race – winning two of the last three – and this 3 year-old wasn’t disgraced when sixth in the Group One Commonwealth Cup at Ascot last time. This drop into a Group Three will make life easier and with only four career runs should have a lot more to come. William Buick rides for the first time but, don’t forget, he went into many a notebook after bolting-up at Doncaster back in May by 8 lengths so clearly has plenty of ability. Course winners Bacchus and Never Back Down are considered based on their proven track form, while the 112-rated pair of Projection and Invincible Army set a good standard. Of that pair, Invincible Army was ninth in the Commonwealth Cup but only beaten 4 lengths so is closely-matched with the selection and will also find this ease in grade more to his liking. Projection will also have his supporters as he ran a blinder to be fifth – only beaten just over 2 lengths – in the Group One Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Ascot which is form that would probably make him the one to beat. However, he’s a horse that despite running well in better races than this is now 10 races without a win so that resolve to get the job done is a slight question mark for me.

3.35 – Weatherbys Super Sprint (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 5f34y ITV3

13/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
12/14 – Had won over 5f before
10/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/14 – Won 1-2 times before
9/14 – Favourites placed in the top 4
8/14 – Won by a Feb or March foal
7/14 – Irish bred winners
6/14 – Raced at Ascot last time out
6/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Won by a filly
4/14 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
3/14 – Winners from stall 1
4/14 – Winning favourites
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2013, 2015 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/1

TQ VERDICT: A lucrative prize up for grabs here for these 2 year-olds. The Richard Fahey yard love to target the race and have won it in three times since 2013. They’ve several entered – Primeiro Boy, Zebzardee, Good Tyne Girl, Society Queen & Essenza, but their RED BALLOONS looks one of their better chances. This 2 year-old won well at Nottingham last time and prior to that wasn’t disgraced when 14th in the Queen Mary. That Ascot form has since been franked and now she’s got off the mark confidence should be sky-high, plus she’s also the mount of Paul Hanagan, who partnered Richard Fahey’s 2013 winner of this race. Society Queen looks next best of the Fahey runners after winning easily at Ayr last time out. Snazzy and the Richard Hannon-trained It’s The Only Way are others that can go well but the ratings and past form suggest Little Kim, Tin Hat and Kinks are big players too. Little Kim was a decent Group Three winner in France last time and only beaten two lengths in the Queen Mary. However, she does have to give weight away with that Group-winning penalty and that might not be easy. Tin Hat was fifth in the Windsor Castle last time and should in in the mix but the other one I like here is KINKS. This Mick Channon runner ran well to be sixth in the Norfolk Stakes at Ascot last time and actually beat Tin Hat earlier this season at Bath off level weights. However, he gets in here receiving 4lbs off Tin Hat this time and also gets a massive 10lbs off Little Kim. He was only beaten around 3 lengths the last day too and that effort was made to look even better as he didn’t get the best of runs in the closing stages too.

 

 

Newmarket: Plus, One LIVE Race From HQ……………..

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.45 – Smarkets Betting Exchange Aphrodite Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f ITV3

13/14 – Won over at least 1m2f or further before
12/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
9/14 – Won between 1-2 times before
6/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/14 – Winning favourite
5/14 – Ran at Haydock last time out
4/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by John Gosden
2/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani (2 of last 3 years)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

TQ VERDICT: This has been a good race for the Luca Cumani yard in recent years – winning it in 2015 and 2017 – so it might pay to stick with them. They run ALWAYSANDFOREVER this year, who is a 4 year-old that has already run some solid races. She was a fair second in a Listed race at Pontefract last time out but seemed to have the job done that day until idling in front. She got chinned on the line that day but the first-time visor is on this time and that looks to be a good move by connections. It won’t be easy giving 11lbs away to the 3 year-olds but the trip and ground are fine, plus with just five career runs then we can expect more from this filly, who is yet to finish out of the first three. Melodic Motion sets the standard on the ratings (102) but despite winning the Group Three Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood last season hasn’t built on that. She was a poor last of 8 on her return run at York too so even though she’s the highest-rated in the field does have a lot to prove at present. Queen Of Connaught is a proven course and distance winner at the track and can’t be ruled out with the Michael Bell horses in cracking form at present. Trainer John Gosden also has a good record in this race – winning it in three times in the last 14 runnings – so his Highgarden is another to note. However, she’s not really built on the promise she’s shown since winning on debut at Newbury last October. Yes, this drop in grade will help after running in the Musidora and Ribblesdale Stakes but she’s still not caught the eye and needs to show more for me.

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team