TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 24th Nov 2018

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 24th Nov 2018

 

  • HAYDOCK: It’s A ‘Must-See’ Betfair Chase…….
  • ASCOT: The Coral Hurdle Takes Centre Stage…….
  • TQ UPDATE: TQ View In Flying Form……………….

 

Hi,

A cracking Saturday of jump racing ahead with top LIVE ITV cards from both Ascot and Haydock to take in. At the royal track we’ve three races that include the Grade Two Coral Hurdle – a race that punters generally get right with ALL of the last 16 winners returning 7/2 or shorter. The 1965 Christy Chase is, also at Ascot, promises to be a cracking affair too with some leading names entered – but with 14 of the last 15 winners aged 8 or younger then this is a key trend to take into the contest.

Then at Haydock, we’ve potentially got the jumps race of the season so far when a stellar cast line-up for the Grade One Betfair Chase. Only five runners, but what the race lack in quantity it makes up for in quality!! Not only have we got last season’s Gold Cup first and second in Native River and Might Bite, but the 2016 King George hero – Thistlecrack – is also making his return to the track in this race. Oh, add in last year’s runaway winner of the race – Bristol De Mai – and the improving Clan Des Obeaux, who represents the Paul Nicholls yard that have won this race six times, then it’s certainly a ‘must-see’ contest for jump racing fans.

So, plenty to look forward too and, as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend!

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes: TQ View Followers In Flying Form………

More decent winners over the last week, including Gay’s Global Spectrum (1st 16/1), who dotted-up on debut at Kempton on Wednesday. Gay told members she thought the horse was probably the best she’s got so there’s plenty to look forward to with this one over the next year or so.

It was also all-smiles for the Michael Scudamore yard over the last week or so as their Dawnieriver won her second race inside five days, so we’ll certainly be looking out for her in her hat-trick bid in the coming weeks.

However, the week belonged to Gary Moore as his popular and very consistent Baron Alco landed the BetVictor God Cup at Cheltenham last Saturday – the flagship race of the three-day meeting and another feather in the cap for the Moore yard as this horse hasn’t been the easiest to train – their patience paid off!

Their good form continued into Sunday with Tazka (1st Evs) winning, plus Cheque En Blanc (1st 13/2) won well as the TQ View pick on Monday at Plumpton – all-in-all, it’s been a top week for Gary and this yard – well done!!

Here’s just a sample of recent winners…………………

 

“Outrage – Loves the track and it suits his running style. He has gone very close in this grade before, including over 6f here. His best form is over 5f, which he gets today, so looking forward to seeing how things pan out.”
1st 5/1 Daniel Kubler

 

“Global Spectrum – We really like this horse – I think he could be my best one but is first time out here and drawn 11 not ideal. Whatever he does here though he’ll improve for it and certainly has a future.”

1st 16/1 Gay Kelleway

 

“Dawnieriver – Won as we expected at Newcastle on Friday – another 3 runner race here so turned out quickly. Has come out of that contest well and in good form with herself but this does look tougher. Another bold bid expected and should go well again.”

1st 11/10 Michael Scudamore

 

“Cheque En Blanc – Disappointing first run back but is better than that and that came over a trip on the sharp side. Up in distance this time will help and hopefully he can put that behind him today – seems to have come on for it too. Should have good e/w chance with Jamie riding.”

1st 13/2 Gary Moore

 

“TAZKA put in a pleasing performance at Kempton recently but she pulled rather too much which did not help her cause. The slightly further distance will probably actually suit TAZKA better as long as she settles today which she should after that first run. Jumping needs to be tidier today but having had racecourse experience and with a generous fillies’ allowance I am hoping TAZKA will go close.”

1st Evs Gary Moore

 

“Stosur – Dropping down the ratings a bit and only a pound higher than last win so a chance based on that. Luke a plus in the saddle but does need to bounce back from two below-par recent runs. Had a small break though and seems better for it. Slim e/w chance.”

3rd 16/1 Gay Kelleway

 

“Tan – Lost his way a bit after winning three back in May and June. Still a bit to prove off this mark but has actually not been getting beaten far in recent races – better than the form figures next to his name suggest. However, draw 11 makes life hard so will need a lot of luck from there.”

3rd 12/1 Mick Appleby

 

“Darlyn – Seems to have a habit of coming fourth at the mo – last seen here back in July when coming – you guessed it – 4th! Has been in good form at home though and is 3lbs lower this time. Not a great race and with good track form then hopeful of a solid e/w run today.”

1st 11/2 Henry Oliver

 

“Big Country – Lincoln winner – Addeybb sets the standard but I think it’s his first run on the AW so that gives us a bit of hope. BC is a tough customer though and has already had another top year. First run at Lingfield but is 3-from-4 on the AW tracks so that’s a plus and seems well after a 55 day break. A lot depends on how the fav performers but we’d like to think we’ve got a solid e/w chance.”

2nd 7/1 Mick Appleby

 

“Hakam – Nice prize on offer here for the time of year. We weren’t beaten far last time (4th of 14) at Newcastle and get in here off the same mark. Stepping up from 6f to 1m here though but only two tries over the trip (when a 3 year-old) saw him run third. If all 8 run then place claims in a race that all 8 seem to have a chance.”

1st 16/1 Mick Appleby

 

“This race has been the target for BARON ALCO who has put in solid performances around here. Ground a slight worry as it is looking quicker than the going suggests – however, I hope to see BARON ALCO hopefully back to his best which should give him solid each-way claims. Likes the track – never been out the first three over fences here – and overall chase form is solid – 7 runs and yet to be out the top three too!”

1st 8/1 Gary Moore

 

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

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Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

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You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

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HAYDOCK: A ‘Must-See’ Betfair Chase…………………..

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.50 – Betfair Best Odds On ITV Races Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m3f ITV

7 previous runnings
6/7 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
6/7 – Irish bred
6/7 – Had won between 1-2 times before
6/7 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/7 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
5/7 – Had won over at least 2m2f before
5/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
2/7 – Winning favourites
3/7 – Ridden by a conditional claiming jockey
Limited Reserve won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 7/1

TQ VERDICT: Only seven previous runnings but with six of the last seven winners having finished first or second last time out then this is a decent stat to take into the race. Chti Balko, Garo De Juilley & Admiral Barratry, are the only ones the fit the bill. Of that bunch course winner, Chti Balko blew away the cobwebs with a fine second at Ayr on his return run three weeks ago and can go well. He was fourth in the race last year too, but it’s worth pointing out he was beaten around 20 lengths that day and is also rated 9lbs higher this year. ADMIRAL BARRATRY (e/w) was another that was a fair second in his return run (Kempton) and off a pound lower mark has been given a good chance – he’s the first one for the shortlist. The shorter trip here will help as he pulled a bit hard that day too and Lizzie Kelly takes off a handy 3lbs too – he can go well. Of the rest, course winner Ch’Tibello is starting to look well-handicapped off a mark of 147 as he was running in much better races last season. His form tailed off a bit though last season so does need to bounce back – on a plus, the Dan Skelton yard are in decent order. The Paul Nicholls-trained Cliffs Of Dover is another that is sure to be popular, while the top-weight Cyrus Darius is having his first run for the in-form Colin Tizzard yard and can’t be ruled out with form in better races than this last term. Mr Antolini should be fitter for his return run last time and is another to consider based on last season’s form, while Richard Johnson catches the eye riding for the Harry Fry-trained Black Mischief. This 6 year-old was going well in a race won by Jersey Bean last time at Newbury when falling late on and with that form looking solid should be in the mix too and rates the main danger to the selection.

2.25 – Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV

12/13– Aged between 5 and 7 years-old
12/13 – Had won between 1-3 times (hurdles UK) before
11/13 – Carried 10-9 or more
11/13 – Rated between 132 and 143
8/13 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (no winners)
7/13 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
7/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/13 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/13 – French bred
5/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/13 – Trained by David Pipe
2/13 – Trained by Nick Williams
Sam Spinner won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/2

TQ VERDICT: It’s hard to get away from the hat-trick seeking FIRST ASSIGNMENT here, who is clearly thriving at present. This Ian Williams-trained 5 year-old has won his last two at Cheltenham in cracking fashion and as long as this race doesn’t come too quickly then he can go well again off just 5lbs higher. It would be foolish to ignore the Gordon Elliott runner – Folsom Blue – that makes the trip over but at the age of 11 he’s overlooked with 12 of the last 13 winners aged between 5 and 7 years-old. Of the rest, we can expect the Paul Nicholls-trained Captain Cattistock to have improved for it’s last run as it was his first off a break. Paisley Park is the clear top-rated in the field and won well at Aintree last time to make him a player but is up 7lbs for that and it might not be easy having to give 12lbs to the improving First Assignment.

 

3.00 – Betfair Chase (Registered as The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f ITV

13 Previous runnings
11/13 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
11/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/13 – Officially rating of 168 or higher
10/13 – Won by and Irish (3) or French (7) bred horse
10/13 – Placed in the top three in their last race
10/13 – Won a Grade One chase previously
9/13 – Raced at Haydock previously
9/13 – Favourites placed
8/13 – Aged 8 or older
7/13 – Raced at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out
7/13 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
6/13 – Won by a previous winner of the race
6/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Won their latest race
3/13 – Raced at Aintree last time out
The average winning price in the last 11 runnings is 11/2
The Paul Nicholls yard has won the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2014
Ruby Walsh has ridden the winner in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2012

TQ VERDICT: Only five runners, but what the Betfair Chase field lacks in quantity it certainly makes up for in quality! The jumps race of the campaign so far that sees last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup first and second in Native River and Might Bite do battle again, while the 2016 King George hero – Thistlecrack – is also making his return. Add in the current champ in Bristol De Mai, that destroyed a good field in this race last season – oh, and is also unbeaten (3-from-3) at the track over fences, plus the Paul Nicholls-trained Clan Des Obeaux, then it’s a ‘must-see’ race for all jump fans. Nicky Henderson’s Might Bite looks likely to go off favourite and it’s easy to see why – he’ll be looking to give the champion trainer his first success in this race. He’s a class act and despite getting beaten in the Gold Cup he bounced back to land the Betway Bowl at Aintree last time out and looks set for another big season. However, he’s no real value here, especially as he’s actually rated 4lbs inferior to NATIVE RIVER – the horse that beat him 4 ½ lengths in the Gold Cup. If this turns into a slog then the Tizzard-trained Native River could have Might Bite’s measure again – he stays further than this and could easily grind things out from the front with Bristol De Mai. I also suspect that the Henderson team will not want to give Might Bite too hard a race if things develop into a grind or a battle. Plus, it’s hard to ignore the chance of Bristol De Mai – after all, he’s the current champ and he’s yet to lose a race over fences here at Haydock (3 runs) – he simply loves it here! Yes, he will probably need the ground to get a bit softer and he’s also rated 11lbs lower than Native River and 7lbs inferior to Might Bite, but his ‘horses-for-courses’ profile here makes him hard to rule out – if any rain comes his chance will greatly increase. Tizzard also introduces his 2016 King George winner – Thistlecrack – to the track after a troubled time off, but despite having the form to take this I’d rather take a watching brief to see if he retains his old ability. Clan Des Obeaux makes up the five and even though it would be a shock if he’s good enough in a field like this, he’s only 6 years-old so has time on his side and the Nicholls camp have a fantastic record in the race – winning it six times from 13 runnings. On a plus, he’s a course winner and could easily improve for the step up in trip but does have just over 10 lengths to find with Might Bite based on their Aintree runs in the Betway Bowl back in April. All-in-all a fascinating race that is not to be missed. Might Bite is the one to beat, but with Native River having already taken his scalp this year, plus the course specialist – Bristol De Mai – on our side then I’m happy to take on the Henderson horse at the short price.

 

3.35 – Better Value On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase Cl2 3m24y ITV

11/11 – Aged 9 or younger
10/11 – French (4) or Irish (6) bred
9/11 – Carried 11-1 or more
9/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Had won 2-3 times over fences before
8/11 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
7/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/11 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
4/11 – Carried 11-11 or more in weight
4/11 –Winning distance – head or shorter
4/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/11 – Winning favourites
Chase The Spud won the race in 2017

TQ VERDICT: A course winner that can go well too is CAPTAIN REDBEARD (e/w). This 9 year-old is another that ticks a lot of the main trends and should be a lot fitter for his return run, when third at Carlisle three weeks ago. His form at the track reads an impressive 3-1-2-1-2 so looks sure to be in the mix. It’s hard to ignore those track stats so this Stuart Coltherd runner gets the thumbs-up. Of the rest, Takingrisks was a good winner last time out at Ayr and can’t be ruled out, while the Paul Nicholls-trained Braqueur D’Or won easily at Taunton recently so heads here full of confidence too and looks an improving staying chaser. The consistent Vintage Clouds can go well too but this Sue Smith-trained runner just doesn’t win enough for me and looks booked for one of the places once again. Buywise and the normally prominent Delusionofgrandeur make up the six runners.

 

 

Ascot: Three Live Races From The Royal Track………

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.05 – Christy 1965 Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f8y ITV

14/15 – Aged 8 or younger
13/15 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
12/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
10/15 – Favourites placed
10/15 – Won by a French-bred horse
10/15 – Had won over this trip (fences) 2m5f or further before
10/15 – Ran at Aintree (3) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
9/15 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
9/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
8/15 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
6/15 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
6/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Aged 5 years-old
3/15 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Won by trainer Alan King
2/15 – Won by trainer Philip Hobbs
2/15 – Went onto win at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Albertas Run & Vautour, RyanAir Chase 2009 & 2016)
Top Notch won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2

Note: The 2002 running was at Wincanton and the 2004 renewal at Windsor

TQ VERDICT: The Paul Nicholls-trained POLITOLOGUE bypassed the Betfair Chase to run over this shorter trip and in this slightly easier grade and looks the one to beat. He had a big season last term, with his neck beating of Min in the Melling Chase at Aintree the highlight. He’s also won first time out for the last two seasons and is a course and distance winner at the track – he’s got a lot going for him and at the age of 7 should have more improvement to come. Charbel is a classy sort on his day too and rates a live threat, especially after beating Baron Alco last time out – that form has since been franked with the second landing the BetVictor Gold Cup. The Moore camp, who train Baron Alco, have a line on that form with their 6 year-old Benatar entered. He was pulled out at Cheltenham last Saturday but was well-fancied that day and a recent spin at Newton Abbot, when he pulled too hard, should have blown away the cobwebs. He is rated 19lbs lower to the selection though so despite getting 3lbs does still have a bit to find. Gold Present and Hammersly Lake are others to note, but in a race the Paul Nicholls yard have won six times in the last 15 years then Politologue is the call.

 2.40 – Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV

16/16 – Priced 7/2 or less
14/16 – Won over at least 2m 1/2f (hurdles) previously
14/16 – Won a Grade 2 (or better) hurdle race previously
13/16 – Won by and Irish (10) or French (3) bred horse
12/16 – Favourites placed
10/16 – Won their latest race
10/16 – Won by a horse aged 7 or older
10/16 – Won a Grade 1 hurdle race previously
10/16 – Had their last race 3 months or longer ago
9/16 – Favourites that won (2 joint)
9/16 – Won between 3-5 times over hurdles previously
6/16 – Went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle after winning this (1 won)
5/16 – Went onto race in the Champion Hurdle that same season (4 of 5 finished 4th or better, Faugheen won both in 2014-15)
5/16 – Won a hurdles race at Ascot previously
4/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
4/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/16 – Won by the Willie Mullins stable
4 of the last 12 winners were Irish-trained
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/4
Lil Rockerfeller won the race in 2017
Note: the 2004 & 2005 renewals were at Windsor

TQ VERDICT: The Harry Fry IF THE CAP FITS was a fair second at Wincanton on his return run and only just ran out of steam in the closing stages. He’s a strong-travelling sort and the extra distance should also be more in his favour – the form of that run has since been upheld by Verdana Blue, who ran well in the Greatwood Hurdle with plenty of weight and gets the call, especially getting a bit of weight. Another horse that can be expected to have improved for it’s return run is the Nicky Henderson-trained We Have A Dream. This 4 year-old was third at Aintree last time out but was bang-there until the closing stages and should be a lot fitter this time and can go well with Geraghty coming in for the ride. In what looks a bit of a shootout between the two already mentioned I just feel the Fry horse might just have a bit more scope for improvement – we’ll see. The consistent and versatile Old Guard is another to note after running a solid third in the Greatwood Hurdle last time out and should not be far away, while we can expect Rayvin Black to make the running but will probably get outclassed in the second half of the race.

3.15 – Gerard Bertrand Hurst Handicap Chase Cl2 2m192y ITV

11/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Aged between 6 and 9 years-old
11/12 – Had won over fences over this trip (or further) before
9/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/12 – Carried 11-0 or more
9/12 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
8/12 – Rated 142 or higher
7/12 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/12 – Ran at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
6/12 – Had raced at Ascot before
6/12 – Placed favourites
4/12 – Placed horses from the Paul Nicholls yard
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Aged 6 years-old
2/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/12 – Trained by Gary Moore

TQ VERDICT: An open race. We can expect the front-running Speredek to make this a test from the front but in the process, he might just set the race up for something else. The Henderson-trained Theinval ticks a lot of boxes and looks set to have another decent season ahead. However, he’s a horse that has often needed his first run back, so he’s overlooked here. Duke Of Navan can go well in this grade but at the age of 11 he’s not getting any younger, while 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9 years-old. Gardefort would be interesting if tuned-up for this return, while the generally consistent Caid du Lin gets in with a fair weight that would make him dangerous. However, this is a race the Paul Nicholls team have targeted with a degree of success in recent years – winning two of the last 12 and having 4 placed horses during that time too. The McManus-owned Modus will be one of his that will be popular with Geraghty riding and he’s closely linked in with Duke Of Navan after beating that horse a head last time out at Cheltenham. He’s won 4 of his 7 chase starts too and rate a big player. But he’s raced twice over hurdles here at Ascot and been beaten both times so that’s a small concern. Nicholls also has SAN BENEDETO (e/w) though and he looks the more interesting. A course and distance winner that was a fair third in the Haldon Gold Cup last time at Exeter and should be spot-on now after two runs this season. Bryony Frost also gets on well with the horse and gets the leg-up. Ozzie The Oscar is another that will be popular and is yet to finish out of the first three from six runs over fences (3 wins). He was second in the Haldon Gold Cup so closely-matched with San Benedeto but with 11-12 to carry here things won’t be easy for this Philip Hobbs runner.

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team