TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 26th Jan 2019

Galway Plate Chase Free Tips and Trends
  • SATURDAY LIVE RACING: Weather Takes It’s Toll………
  • LEOPARDSTOWN: Irish Champion Hurdle Trends and Tips…..
  • TQ UPDATE: In-Form Oliver Hits Back………….

Hi,

So, parts of the country have had the snow that’s been promised all week, so it looks like being a bleak weekend in terms of the jumps racing with Wetherby, Musselburgh and Sandown all looking doubtful to race.  In case they’ve got it wrong then we’ve still listed the main trends for the proposed live races – you never know!!

If not, then Lingfield and Kempton, plus an extra meeting at Chelmsford, will fly the flag on the AW and to be fair they’ve actually got decent cards, especially Lingfield as it’s their Winter Derby Trial day.

Plus, over in Ireland there’s plenty to enjoy as we’ve the two-day Dublin Racing Festival to take in from Leopardstown. Many big names on show as they take in another prep race before Cheltenham – the Irish Champion Hurdle (trends below) is a race trainer Willie Mullins will be looking to win for a seventh time, while Gordon Elliott will be eyeing his first success in the race – he’s got his prolific-winning mare Apple’s Jade entered. Oh, add in last year’s winner Supasundae, plus the 2017 hero Petit Mouchoir then even though we’ve a small field it’s a fascinating renewal.  

So, still a fair amount to look forward too and, as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend!!

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes: In-form Henry Oliver Let’s Winners Do The Talking………..

It was all kicking off last weekend with the BHA slapping a £140 fine on our very own Henry Oliver for waving his arms at one of his runners at the start in a bid to get the horse to begin its race. Crazy stuff, and even though Henry’s not going to appeal the decision he had several big names – like Alan King, AP McCoy and Nicky Henderson leap to his defence. In Henry’s words, the cash penalty isn’t going to make much difference to his life, but it just seems ludicrous considering on the flat some horses are pushed into the stalls against their free-will so they can start the race.

Anyway, the BHA seem to have come off worse and although rules are rules, surely it would have been better to just have a quiet word and move on from there.

Oh well, Henry had the last laugh this week anyway with three winners since last Saturday – The Crazed Moon (11/4), Hijran (11/2) and Another Theatre (15/8)

Here’s just a sample of recent winners…………………

“Global Goddess – Has been a bit frustrating with no wins from 9 now but has been placed in the top three four times. Tried a longer trip last time but didn’t see it out so the drop back to 7f a plus and we are also 5lbs lower here with the drop in the ratings and William’s claim. Draw 6 fine and has run well here before. Another that needs things to fall right but dropping mark must give us a chance. Each-way.”

2nd 16/1 Gay Kelleway

“Sea Shack – Showed improve form last run when in cheekpieces and the tongue tie, plus also making the running. He has come out of that race in good form too and even though these apprentice races are hard to predict he certainly has the ability to be thereabouts in a race like this.”

2nd 12/1 Julia Feilden

“Clearance – Quite a promising run over hurdles last time at Newbury. Hopefully that gave him a bit of an interest which should see him run well today back on the flat. Dropped a pound since last run on the level and the step up to 1m6f will be fine. Each-way. “

1st 10/3 Gary Moore

“Limerick Lord – Has shown his best form at Southwell but he seems to have got a bit sick of the kick-back there lately. Therefore, we think a change of scenery here at Wolves will be best for him and he has run a couple of times here in the past – finishing 3rd and 4th with top-weight in a Class 6. We think he has a great e/w chance here at a good price.”

1st 16/1 Julia Feilden

“Theligny – Second run back after a wind op so we are looking for a better run. 2lbs lower this time too and back down to a mark that he ran well at last season. Acts on most ground and despite being first run at Newcastle no reason why it won’t suit. Small bit to answer over this trip but we feel he stays it well – we have been lucky at the track before so hoping we’ve got a fair e/w chance here in an open contest.”

3rd 9/1 Tim Vaughan

“Arthur Mac – Second runner up at Newcastle today and another that won well last time out. Lovely horse that is a big rare baby, but the penny is staring to drop. Stepping up in trip will suit and the ground is fine too. We’ve a bit to find with Nestor Park on the ratings though as we race off level weights and that horse is rated 12lbs higher than us. Still feel we’ve got a fair e/w chance though with the horse going the right way and little depth to the race.”

2nd 9/2 Henry Oliver

“Another Theatre – Nice winner for us last time out at Catterick – into a handicap for the first time here so we’ll learn more about her mark here but is well and has come out of that last race nicely too. The horses seem to be running well at the moment too and Jason helps by taking 7lbs off the saddle. A horse going the right way though. Track, trip and ground are fine so looking for a solid run – but, as I say, just hard to assess her opening mark against the oppo as 11st 10lbs to carry (less Jason’s claim).”

1st 15/8 Henry Oliver

“Lord Murphy is becoming a little frustrating as we seem to be getting no luck in-running through the race. We are once again given a wide draw, so will be forced to drop in & ride for luck! Having said that, the horse is in good form in himself and is capable of picking up a race of this nature, so it will all depend on the splits through the race. 1 1/2 stars.”

2nd 10/1 Jamie Snowden

“Hijran – Won well at Hereford two runs back but failed to follow-up last time at Leicester. The ground there was probably a bit too lively for him though and on this slightly softer surface then a better run is expected. Jascon remains in the saddle and claims 7lbs again. Only 5lbs higher than last win and seems well after a break. Open contest but feel we’ve got fair e/w claims. “

1st 11/2 Henry Oliver

“KING COOL has had a break and back over hurdles again having won a chase at Plumpton last May but off a considerably lower mark than today over hurdles. Possible that KING COOL might find it tough off this mark but switched from Fontwell yesterday as the ground looked very testing there yesterday and hoping for considerably better ground today.”

1st 9/2 Gary Moore

“Rosy World – Looks between the Nicholls and Hobbs runners but we head here with a fair each-way chance too. Will be a lot better for her recent run at Plumpton after a break and we at least get 7lbs from the main players. That was also her first run over hurdles so would have learned a lot. Well for a small break too and any rain a plus – with just 4 career runs will have more to come. Each-way. “

3rd 10/1 Suzy Smith

“The Crazed Moon – CD winner that heads here in great form after two recent wins. Up 7lbs for the last of those but remains in good heart at home. Ground is ideal so every chance of landing the three-timer. Jason continues in the saddle and claims a handy 8lbs too.”

1st 11/4 Henry Oliver

“Mr Scaramanga – Starting to get better handicapped and ran well here at his favoured track last time on his return from a break. Seems in top form and could easily go well at a big price if they go hard up front.”

1st 20/1 Simon Dow

“Redbridge Gold – Was second to Mega Yeats on her bumper debut and that form looks the best of offer here. She’s not had a clear run since but now she’s back on song and should run well as long as the ground doesn’t dry out too much.”

1st 5/1 Jamie Snowden

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 8 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

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LIVE ITV RACING: Sandown, Wetherby and Musselburgh Provide The Action………….

Sandown Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.15 – 888Sport Bet £10 Get £30 Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f119y

12/12 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
12/12 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
11/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/12 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/12 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
9/12 – Aged 9 or younger
9/12 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
7/12 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/12 – Had run over fences at Sandown before (3 won)
6/12 – Winners that went to race in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
5/12 – Carried 10-10 or less
5/12 – Raced at Sandown last time out
5/12 – Came from outside the top 4 in the betting
4/12 – Aged 7 years-old
4/12 – French bred
4/12 – Had an official rating of exactly 125
3/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/12 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2

BEST BET: GINO TRAIL
Danger: DOLOS

1.50 – 888Sport Contenders Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV4

8/8 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/8 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
8/8 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
7/8 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Won between 2-5 times (hurdles)
7/8 – French bred
5/8 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/8 – Winning favourites
5/8 – Rated 161 or higher
5/8 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/8 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/8 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/8 – Won last time out
Buveur D’Air won the race in 2017 and 2018

BEST BET: BUVEUR D’AIR
Danger: VISION DES FLOS


2.25 – 888Sport Scilly Isles Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV

15/15 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
15/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/15 – Won no more than 3 times over fences before
15/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
13/15 – Aged 7 or younger
13/15 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
10/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/15 – Winning favourites
9/15 – French bred
6/15 – Aged 7 years-old
5/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/15 – Had run over fences at Sandown before
4/15 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 5 in the RSA Chase
4/15 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob (last 4 winners)
3/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning  SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/4

BEST BET: DEFI DU SEUIL
Danger: LOSTINTRANSLATION


3.00 – 888Sport Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m7f98y ITV

13/13 – Had run in the last 8 weeks
13/13 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
12/13 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
11/13 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
10/13 – Officially rated 135 or lower
10/13 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles previously
10/13 – Winners that went to race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
9/13 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
9/13 – Priced 13/2 or less
8/13 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
8/13 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/13 – Favourites placed
4/13 – Raced over hurdles at Sandown previously (3 won)
4/13 – Won their last race
5/13 – Favourites that won
4/13 – Won by a French-bred horse
4/13 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/13 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/13 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/13 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/13 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (Ryanair Chase, 2007 Taranis)

BEST BET: KEEPER HILL
Danger: BALLYMOY



3.35 – 888Sport Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y ITV

14/15 – Carried 11-5 or less
13/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
11/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before
10/15 – Rated 136 or lower
9/15 – Favourites placed in the top 4
8/15 – Had raced at Sandown before (4 won)
8/15 – Placed last time out
8/15 – Irish-bred
7/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/15 – Raced at either Sandown (3) or Haydock (3) last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/15 – French-bred
3/15 – Winners that went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
2/15 – Trained by Lucy Wadham (2 of last 5)
2/15 – Trained by Venetia Williams (2 of last 5)

BEST BET: BELAMI DES PICTONS
Danger: SHANROE SANTOS



Wetherby Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.40 – William Hill Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

13/14 – Aged 8 or younger
12/14 – Had never raced over fences at Wetherby before
11/14 – Priced 3/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/14 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
10/14 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
9/14 – Aged 7 years-old
9/14 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
9/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (1 winner, Blaklion 2016, plus all finished 6th or better)
2/14 – Trained by Ian Williams

Musselburgh Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.05 – bet365 Scottish County Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f124y

11/12 – Returned 15/2 or less in the betting
10/12 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
11/12 – Had won over this trip before (hurdles)
9/12 – Aged 6 years-old
8/12 – Former flat horses
8/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/12 – Carried 11-0 or less
7/12 – Rated between 120-130
7/12 – Favourites placed in the top 4
2/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Won last time out

3.15 – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase Cl2 4m176y

Only two previous runnings
2/2 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
2/2 – Priced between 6/1 and 10/1 in the betting
0/2 – Winning favourites
Trainer Sandy Thompson won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 60% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tim Vaughan has a 27% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Sandy Thompson has a 26% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Full Jack won the race in 2018
Dancing Shadow (6/1) won the race in 2017



Leopardstown: Mullins Eyes Seventh Irish Champion Hurdle Win……..

3.10 – BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) (4 yo+) 2m

14/15 – Placed in the top three last time
14/15 – Raced within the last 2 months
13/15 – Had won at Leopardstown before
12/15 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Rated 159 or higher
12/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
11/15 – Irish bred
11/15 – Went onto finish in the top six of that season’s Champion Hurdle
11/15 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/15 – Won last time out
10/15 – Winning favourites
10/15 – Raced at Leopardstown last time out
6/15 – Trained by Willie Mullins (6 of last 8 runnings)
3/15 – Went onto win the Champion Hurdle
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 5/2

Willie Mullins has won this race six times, so he’ll be pinning his hopes on Melon to try and make it ‘Seventh Heaven’ for the popular Irish handler. However, despite being the top-rated in the field he’s a horse that’s won just one of this last eight and also flopped in this race when only fifth last year. He’s a classy sort but simply doesn’t win enough for me. Supasundae won the prize last year and looks set to go well again. The Jessie Harrington-trained 9 year-old powered to a 2 ¼ length win last year and it will be a brave man to say he won’t go close again here. However, there is one fly in the ointment ahead of his chance – a certain APPLE’S JADE. This popular mare is a winning machine that’s won 8 of her last 10 starts and 13 of her 19 career runs in total. More importantly she’s got three big factors on her side. Firstly, she’s 3-from-3 at Leopardstown, secondly, she gets a handy 7lbs from Melon and Supasundae, and finally the last three times she’s race against Supasundae she’s won each time! Okay, the drop back to 2 miles might not be ideal as she’s been doing all her running over 2m4f and 3m since 2016, but she’s still only 7 years-old so should still have plenty of pace for this and the fact we know she also stays further could be a lethal combination at a track we know she loves.

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team