TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 28th July 2018

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 28th July 2018

 

  • ASCOT: It’s King George Day at the Royal Track……..
  • YORK: LIVE Racing From the Knavesmire…………
  • TQ: A Juicy Appleby Double At Nottingham………

 

Hi,

Some nice winners last weekend with Emotionless (1st 11/4) and More Buck’s (1st 6/1 from 9/1) going in, plus Coeur de Lion (3rd 17/2) was a nice place return – we’ll be hoping for more of the same this Saturday!

No Frankie Dettori at Ascot this Saturday as the pocket Italian picked up a six-day ban at Newmarket’s July Festival so it won’t be the same at the Berkshire track without him but there is still plenty to look forward to with the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes the clear highlight.

The Group One race is one of the highlights on the calendar and we’ve a fascinating renewal with three Royal Ascot winners in Crystal Ocean, Poet’s Word and Kew Gardens set to lock horns.

In total we’ve four LIVE races to take in from Ascot, while there are three at York, that include the SkyBet Dash and Group Two SkyBet York Stakes.

All-in-all, a fascinating day to look forward to with SEVEN races to enjoy from Ascot and York – that – as mentioned – include the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. So, as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

 

Have a Great Weekend and enjoy the Sun!!

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes: Apple Lands Juicy Nottingham Double!

We’ve had plenty to shout about again this week, including a top 9/1 winner for the Michael Scudamore yard with Lawmaking going in at Newcastle on Tuesday, plus Thundercloud (1st 13/2), for Scott Dixon and Bondi Beach Boy (1st 7/1), from the Dave Griffiths yard, winning for the sixth time at his beloved Beverley.

However, the Mick Appleby camp stole the show up at Nottingham too with a decent 5/1 and 5/2 double after his Channel Packet and Eponina went in under up-and-coming jockey Theo Ladd. Mick’s yard continues to grow from strength-to-strength and have now bagged an impressive 56 flat winners (and counting) in 2018.

Here’s just a taster of some of the recent successes………………

“Jackfinbar – Might turn into a trappy little race with only 5 runners. Our colt ran well over in France last time – beaten just a short-head over 1m4f, but ran as is this step up to 1m6f will suit. Jim Crowley a plus in the saddle and despite being the outsider of five think he’ll run better than odds indicate.” 1st 25/1 Harry Dunlop

“Lord Clenaghcastle – Has been too keen early on but hopefully he’ll settle more today over this longer trip (1m) and give a better showing of himself. The in-form Duke Of North looks the clear one to beat. “ 1st 6/1 Gary Moore

“Eponina – Very trappy little race with only 3 runners. Our horse is better than what she showed last time here after running far too freely and using up too much in the early stages. Same mark but we put a 7lb claimer on this time and in this better race we’ve only 8-10 to carry (had 10-0 last time). Needs to bounce back and more needed in this harder race, but the lighter weight will help and if she can settle better should go well – with only two others to beat anything is possible.” 1st 5/2 Mick Appleby

“Channel Packet – Yet to win a race from 11 starts but has hit the crossbar a few times. Handles this quick ground well and racing off a career-low mark, plus we are dropped in grade. Not a great race and certainly one of the more easier chances he’s had. More needed but think once he gets his head in front that will give him more confidence. Solid Each-way claims and looks one of my better chances on the day.” 1st 5/1 Mick Appleby

“Jack Nevison – Likes to race up with the pace and that will be the plan again here from stall 5. Is much better for a recent run at the track after 3 months off and also weighted to go well off a 2lbs lower mark and back down to last winning rating. We are one of just a few proven course and distance winners in the field so that helps too. Should go well in an open race but looks fair e/w value.” 3rd 12/1 Mick Appleby

“Lawmaking – Got home by a short head at a big price at Kempton last time out. Only up 3lbs for that, which seems fair. That came in the first-time blinkers but we are mixing it up with the first-time visor here but the headgear seemed to work last time. Still looks well treated on old form (78) as rated in the 90’s before. First run at the track but should be fine and has had 4 weeks to freshen up after that last run. Should go well and looks to have fair e/w claims in an open and competitive race.” 1st 9/1 Michael Scudamore

“Bondi Beach Boy: Loves the Beverley track – not at his best at Doncaster last time when running fifth but the time before was a solid second here on his first run for us. Bringing him back to his beloved Beverley off the same mark but this is a slightly harder grade. Dave Allen is back in the saddle though so that helps. In good form at home and a bold bid expected from draw 5 – looks to have a fair each-way chance. “ 1st 7/1 Dave Griffiths

“Havisham – Won well on handicap debut but struggled off his revised mark. Back in a novice here but he’s got to improve to beat the favourite but should be placed and if the hot favourite disappoints then we would have every chance.” 2nd 14/1 Jamie Snowden

“Thundercloud – Has returned from her break in good order – winning once and running third the other twice. Same mark as last time but this is a drop in grade so that helps. If running to the form of her recent third over course and distance then in this slightly easier race must have a decent each-way chance.” 1st 13/2 Scott Dixon

“Loch Ness Monster – Delighted with his debut run when second at Pontefract earlier this month. Has come out of that race really well and we feel he’ll take the beating here with that experience under his belt.” 1st 4/7 Mick Appleby

“Buckland Beau – Has not been easy to win with on the turf but I am certain he has it in him. Fit and well at home so if he takes to Haydock then he’s well-handicapped here and would have a decent each-way chance.” 3rd 10/1 Charlie Fellowes

“Medrano – Had no chance the way the race panned out last time. This looks a very competitive race but Medrano (2) has a decent draw and if they go a decent pace should be able to get involved. “ 2nd 20/1 Daniel Kubler

“Deia Glory – Highly-tried last time in the G2 Queen Mary at Ascot so will find this a lot easier. Prior to that run had shown a lot of promise with three good runs, including a close second at Beverley in early June in the Hilary Needler. The winner of that race has since franked the form so all is in place for a big run. Trip, track and ground are all fine and we get a handy 7lb from the Ellison horse in the race – Little Legs. Looks a straight shootout between us and that horse but we are hoping the experience of that last run in a much better race will see her home in front.” 1st 10/11 Scott Dixon

“Jonnysimpson – Top jockey booked in Oisin Murphy and the horse is well after a few months out. Will go forward from stall 7 and be up there on the pace. Last win came off just 2lbs higher but did it well that day at Kempton last October over 5f so the extra furlong will be fine. Looks a poor race too and we are 3lbs lower than last time and also down in grade – both factors should help him get more competitive and looks a fair e/w option to me.” 3rd 10/1 Lee Carter

“Might be a tough ask to get the better of the Hills and Guest horses here. We return from around 4 months off the track so likely to need the run and the horse is also running in the highest grade she’s contested to date.” 2nd 33/1 Gay Kelleway

           

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

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Ascot: The King George Takes Centre Stage……..

ASCOT Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

 

1.50 – Princess Margaret Keenland Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV

13/15 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Had won just once before
12/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/15 – Foaled in either Feb or March
10/15 – Won over 6f before
9/15 – Winning favourite
6/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Won by the Hannon yard
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
6 of the last 12 winners were Irish bred
8 of the last 12 horses from stall 1 were placed
4 of the last 6 winners came from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
Nyaleti (2/1 fav) won the race 12 months ago

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newbury

TQ VERDICT: The Ed Walker-trained Royal Intervention was impressive last time out at Newmarket in a Listed race so on that form certainly deserves to take her chance in this Group Three. She won by an easy 4 ½ lengths at the line and clearly loves the quick ground. Top French jockey, Gerald Mosse continues in the saddle and she looks a massive player here, but if there is a slight niggle it’s the form of the yard – at the time of writing (Thurs 26th) the Ed Walker camp are just 1 from 21. Looking at the 2 year-old track stats then trainers Ralph Beckett (0 from 18) and Richard Fahey (0 from 28) have poor records with their juveniles here, so Scintilating and Nicki’s Angel are overlooked. The Mackem Bullet and Aquarius were both good winners last time out but you feel would need more in this grade, so the call is ANGEL’S HIDEAWAY, who has shown a good level of form at Group Two and Three levels already. She was the horse Frankie was riding at HQ last time that was responsible for his recent six-day ban after hanging right in the closing stages. Prior to that she was a close fourth in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot which was another solid effort. The Gosden camp also boast an impressive 23% record with their two year-olds here, plus jockey Robert Havlin also rides the juveniles well here – he’s operating at a 25% record.

 

2.25 – Porsche Handicap Cl2 1m ITV

Only 7 previous runnings
6/7 – Carried 8-8 or more
5/7 – Winners between stalls 9-15
5/7 – Had won just once before
3/7 – Won last time out
5/7 – Unplaced favourites
3/7 – Returned 10/1 or bigger in the betting
3/7 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/7 – Irish bred
1/7 – Winning favourite
D’Bai (8/1) won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Charlie Appleby won the race in 2017
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2016
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2014
Trainer Hughie Morrison won the race in 2012

TQ VERDICT: This is a race trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a fair record in – winning it in 2016 – so his Moqarrar will be trying to improve that record. However, he was below-par in the Britannia Stakes last time out at Royal Ascot so needs to bounce back on that effort. Jockey William Buick has ridden the winner here in two of the last three seasons, so he’ll be trying to improve that record with the Brian Meehan-trained Petrus and is another to consider. Five of the last seven winners came from stalls 9-15 so of the 15 runners that is a plus for seven – George Of Hearts, Sam Gold, Rum Runner, Orange Suits, Escalator, Crack On Crack On and Simply Breathless. Of that bunch, Sam Gold is might be worth giving another chance too as he’s since been gelded after his poor Royal Ascot run and before that looked a progressive miler. ESCALATOR looks interesting though after two good wins at Doncaster and Newmarket. Yes, he’s up 10lbs here and in a better grade but did it well last time out to suggest there is more to come. Clive Cox (1 from 40) and Richard Hannon (6 from 130) have poor records with their 3 year-olds here so Simply Breathless and Rum Runner are given a wide berths. The other interesting one, despite having a lower draw, is AQUARIUM. This 3 year-old was a good winner just 8 days ago at Nottingham and that was made to look even better as he fluffed the start too. He’s a Mark Johnston horse that is clearly in good order at the moment and stayed on really well to beat a fair horse in Maypole by just over 2 lengths that last day. The icing on the cake is a certain Ryan Moore that’s been booked to ride.

 

3.00 – Gigaset International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

15/15 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
15/15 – Had raced at Ascot previously
15/15 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
12/15 – Won over 7f previously
12/15 – Favourites unplaced
11/15 – Carried 8-9 or more in weight
11/15 – Won between 2-4 times previously
10/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
10/15 – Winners that came from outside the top three in the market
10/15 – Aged 4 years-old
9/15 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
6/15 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/15 – Won their last race
4/15 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/15 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/15 – Ridden by Jimmy Quinn
1/15 – Winning favourites
Trainer Richard Fahey has won the race three times in the last 8 years
9 of the last 11 winners ran at either Ascot, Newmarket or Haydock last time out
8 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure stall
7 of the last 11 winners finished in the top 5 last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 24/1

Note: The 2005 running was staged at Newbury

TQ VERDICT: Plenty of decent trends to go on here, like 12 of the last 15 winners having won over this 7f trip in the past. Of the 29 runners, there are a few that fall down on that stat – Louie De Palma, Firmament, Brian The Snail, Cardsharp and Mubtasim. ALL of the last 15 runners were aged 5 or younger so of the remaining distance winners we are left with 18. A double-figure draw has been key in recent years too, with 8 of the last 11 winners fitting this bracket, while it’s worth noting any Richard Fahey runner as he’s trained three of the last 8 winners – he runs Clubbable, Zap, Right Action, Gallipoli and Brian The Snail. 11 of the last 15 winners also carried 8-9 or more in weight so taking all these key trends into account the Ryan Moore-ridden MAKZEEM catches the eye. This 5 year-old was a close fifth to another runner here – Burnt Sugar – last time at Newmarket, but after a 54 day break and only his third run of the season can be expected to be better for that last run. Draw 26 looks ideal and has run well many times at the track in the past. Of the rest, the consistent Ripp Orf, who seems to always finish his races off well can get involved under Hayley Turner, while SPANISH CITY, who ran second in the same Newmarket race Burnt Sugar won is another that heads here in decent order. Both also tick a lot of the main trends and look decent each-way options too in a very tough race.

 

3.40 – King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f ITV

16/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
16/16 – Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
15/16 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
14/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Placed last time out
12/16 – Previous Group 1 winner
12/16 – aged 4 years-old
9/16 – Had run Ascot before
9/16 – Won their previous race
8/16 – Favourites that won
7/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
5/16 – Won at Ascot before
3/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner in 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2017
2 of the last 4 winners were that season’s Epsom Oaks winner
Galileo (2001) was the last horse to do the Derby/King George double
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1981, 1983, 2002, 2009 & 2010
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor won the race in 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999 & 2004
Trainer Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2001, 2007, 2008 & 2016
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 7/2

TQ VERDICT: A decent King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes renewal that trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a very strong hand in this year. His recent Royal Ascot scorers – Crystal Ocean, who landed the Hardwicke Stakes by an easy 2 ½ lengths, and the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes winner Poet’s Word will be looking to give the popular handler his sixth win in the race. If he can grab a sixth win then he’d also overtake Saeed Bin Suroor and Dick Hern as the most-winning trainer of this race. Both have big chances too. CRYSTAL OCEAN powered away to win the Hardwicke Stakes by an easy 2 ½ lengths and despite stepping up from Group Two company into a Group One he looks well up to the task. His only run at this level was a close second in the St Leger last season but he’s a much better horse this season and with that last course and distance victory also coming on quick ground then he’ll get his conditions too. William Buick, who rode the winner of this race in 2011, takes over from Ryan Moore in the saddle and of the Stoute pair he gets the vote for me. The yard’s other runner – Poet’s Word – lowered the colours of Cracksman last time out at Royal Ascot, with that win taking his prize haul over the £2m barrier. He’s a high-class 5 year-old at this level but the main difference here will be the trip. He’s up from 1m2f to 1m4f and even though he’s won over this distance, it’s worth pointing out that came in a Group Three. Ground and track are fine and off a mark of 126 he’s the highest-rated in the field and also at a mark 4lbs higher than his stablemate Crystal Ocean. However, a tiny worry for Stoute fans might be that at the time of writing (Weds) they’ve had just one winner from their last 24 sent to post. The already-mentioned Cracksman did have a few excuses last time though and with the rain coming just in time for him then he can’t be overlooked. Off a mark of 125 he’s rated just a pound behind Poet’s Word, but I feel he actually did well to get within 2 ¼ lengths of the winner last time out, considering his antics before the race. He was still just over 8 lengths ahead of Hawkbill but before the race he got a bit worked up and being a colt, it was clear his mind wasn’t solely on the job at hand. Gosden reported that after and said he’d be a much better horse in the second half of the season. Whether this race is going to come a bit too soon based on that comment we’ll have to see but back up to 1m4f should help and prior to that Ascot flop let’s not forget he’d won three Group Ones on the spin. The rain came on Friday and looks to be around on and off during Saturday so if back on-song he looks a big player. The only other two to mention with a chance is Coronet, but we’ll have to see if this John Gosden runner takes his chance, and another O’Brien runner in Hydrangea. Coronet is a proven Group Two winner but yet to win at the highest level from seven tries. He’s a proven course and distance winner at the track on quick ground for Olivier Peslier, who rides again. He’s likely to go well but looks set to be placed rather than win. Hydrangea is another course and distance winner after landing the Group One Champions Fillies and Mares here on Champions Day last October. He since flopped at Ascot in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes but that was over a mile and the step back up in trip looks a plus. Prior to that last run, she’d finished in the top two in four previous races at Group One and Two level so can’t be totally dismissed. However, in a fascinating renewal I’m happy to stick with Crystal Ocean making the leap up into Group One company and having won five and finished in the top three in all nine of this runs to date he’s turning into a reliable sort that would give his all here – he’s taken to give Stoute his sixth win in the race.

 

York: Three LIVE Races on the Knavesmire…….

YORK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

 

2.05 – Skybet Britain’s Most Popular Online Bookmaker Handicap Cl2 7f ITV

10/10 – Carried 9-3 or more
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
9/10 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Had won over 7f before
8/10 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/10 – Had won at York before
4/10 – Rated between 73 and 80
4/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
4/10 – Returned 4/1 in the betting
2/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/10 – Won by the David O’Meara yard
2/10 – Trained by Michael Dods
1/10 – Won last time out
Get Knotted (11/2) won the race in 2016 & 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

TQ VERDICT: The Michael Dods-trained GET KNOTTED has won the last two runnings of this so there is every reason to think this 6 year-old can go in again. He heads here in good form after two seconds at York and is rated just a pound higher than when taking this race 12 months ago. Connections have booked the promising Callum Rodriguez to claim 3lbs this time though so actually gets in with a lighter weight than 12 months ago, and with recent York form that reads 1-3-2-2 then its evident he loves this place too. Of the rest, Godolphin’s Culturati can’t be overlooked despite a 400+ day absence from the track. He’s another course winner and even though he’s a horse that has had issues and a long lay-off has also been gelded since his last run and could easily go onto bigger and better things. Starlight Romance and Lualiwa are other proven course and distance winners in the race to note but I’m happy to stick with the current champ of the last two runnings – Get Knotted.

 

2.40 – Sky Bet Dash (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

14/14 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/14 – Had won between 2-6 times before
12/14 – Carried 8-12 or more
12/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Aged 5 or younger
11/14 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
9/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Raced at either Hamilton, York, Newmarket or Ascot last time
8/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/14 – Had run at York before
6/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/14 – Won last time out
8 of the last 12 winners carried 9-0 or more
Flying Pursuit (12/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

TQ VERDICT: Another tough race to unravel with 19 runners heading to post. Flying Pursuit won the pot last year and tries again. This Tim Easterby runner is rated 4lbs higher this time though and also won’t have a 3lb claimer riding. All of the last 14 winners raced in the last 5 weeks, while 12 of the last 14 carried 8-12 or more in weight. It’s also not been a bad race for punters with 11 of the last 14 winners coming from the top three in the market, plus we’ve seen six winning favourites during that time. Horses from stalls 10 or lower have won 11 of the last 14 renewals too. Taking all those trends into account then Flying Pursuit, Golden Apollo, Baron Bolt, Tommy Taylor, Enjazaat, Foolaad and Intisaab all catch the eye. All seven command respect but the one that stands out for me is the Owen Burrows-trained ENJAZAAT. This 3 year-old ran a blinder in a much better race last time (Group Three) to be a close fifth but looks well-treated on that run now back into a handicap. Jim Crowley, who has won on him in the past, comes in for the ride and after just three runs this season should be spot-on for this now. Draw 7 is fine and is already a Listed grade winner (Ripon) that has won two of his eight races to date – he looks a horse that should have more to come.

 

3.15 – Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV

11/12 – Aged 6 or younger
11/12 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
10/12 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
9/12 – Had won over 1m2f before
9/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/12 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/12 – Horses from stall one that finished in the top two
8/12 – Rated between 112 and 117
6/12 – Ran at Sandown last time out
6/12 – Had run at York before
6/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Aged 6 years-old
2/12 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Success Days (3/1 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

TQ VERDICT: Success Days landed this decent prize 12 months ago and coming over from Ireland again can’t be discounted. Rated 113, which is the joint second highest in the field then his chance is there for all to see. We last saw her running down the field in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh so would need to bound back. The drop back into a Group Two will help as his last two runs in this grade read 1-2, but it is worth noting he’s a horse that seems best with some cut underfoot so might find things happening a bit too quick here. Thundering Blue is the other course and distance winner in the field and wasn’t disgraced when second here in the John Smith’s Cup earlier this month. Trip, track and ground are all fine, but this is a big leap up from handicap company into a Group Two. Smart Call was a good winner on the AW at Newcastle last time out at Group Three level so commands respect but would have a bit to find on these terms (rated 108) with several, plus it might be something of nothing, but at the time of writing (Weds) the Stoute team are just 1 from 24. A yard, however, that are in better form is Michael Bell so their royal runner – FABRICATE – looks interesting. The horse was below par at Ascot last time in the Wolferton Stakes so is on a recovery mission but prior to that was a fair fourth in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes and also close second to the useful Crystal Ocean, who is well fancied for today’s King George. With the Bell camp in much better form then he can’t be overlooked on bits of his form this term. Forest Ranger was a good winner of the Huxley Stakes at this level back in May at Chester but has since run last of seven in the Eclipse so is another that needs to bounce back – the ease in grade should help on that front though. So that leaves us with ELARQAM. This Mark Johnston runner really should take the beaten based on the fact he’s the highest-rated in the field at 115 and also gets a handy 3 year-olds allowance from the older horses. Jim Crowley heads here, instead of Ascot for the ride, plus was a course winner over 7f last season. This campaign he’s run fourth in the English 2,000 Guineas and then sixth in the Irish version so also brings solid top-level form into this Group Two. Yes, he was well-fancied in the Irish version and flopped that day but is worth sticking with as he’s a horse that is clearly better than that showing. The trip is the only unknown as he’s up to 1m2f for the first time but this Frankel colt has given the impression he’ll get the extra yardage and if he does could also have enough speed to see off these rivals.

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team