TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 29th Dec 2018

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 21st July 2018

 

  • NEWBURY: It’s Challow Hurdle Day ………….
  • CHELTENHAM: New Year’s Day Key Trends………..
  • TQ UPDATE: A Top Festive Period For the Yards……..

So, that’s another Christmas over and we are now in the weird in between period with New Year’s Eve the next focal point. We hope you had a good one, but it’s almost back to normal now!

Yes, after a pre-Xmas lull in the racing action we are back in full swing and there’s a lot on the horizon in the coming days with a decent card at Newbury this Saturday that includes the Challow Hurdle, while on New Year’s Day we’ve a top card at Cheltenham to enjoy.

So, plenty to look forward too and, as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend and a cracking New Year!

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes: A Top Festive Period………

Here’s just a sample of recent winners…………………

“Star Of Southwold – Only second run for us after coming from the Richard Hannon camp. Fair third last time out here over 1m4f but the drop back to the extended mile will suit after not quite seeing it out last time. 2lbs lower too so hopeful of a solid run and should be in the mix.” 2nd 10/1 Mick Appleby

“Sellingallthetime – Better for recent run at Southwell and the drop back in trip will help here. Also an ease in grade so expected to find this company a lot easier. Often runs well but has become a hard horse to win with.” 2nd 11/2 Mick Appleby

“SUSSEX RANGER appeared to have his confidence dented when he ran in the Triumph Hurdle last season. Hopefully this lesser contest at a track he has won at just may help his cause.” 1st 7/2 Gary Moore

“CHIVERS ran a sound race over fences at Plumpton last week even though he has only ever ran on the flat he looks to be taking to this sphere ok. Attractive weight and came out of his last race well so every chance.” 1st 4/5 Gary Moore

“Back to basics with Ruby Yeats to hopefully spark a revival in form. Probably best watched back over hurdles but I would like to see Ruby Yeats run with more enthusiasm than on her recent outing over fences before I could be confident.” 3rd 8/1 Gary Moore

“Lostnfound – Had some half-decent novice form. She ran well on seasonal debut over fences when out of her depth over fences. Back over hurdles off a nice mark after a wind op and she’d certainly have a chance here.” 2nd 12/1 Jamie Snowden

“Whenapoet – till to win from 8 runs but ran much better last time to be a close third at Wolves. Light weight here but much higher grade so might be a tall order but the horse is well and hopeful of a solid run again.” 2nd 8/1 Mick Appleby

“Dark Alliance – CD winner and we’ve a good draw here in 2. Going well at home and with Megan claiming a handy 5lbs then we are looking for a big run here today. Bit of money this morning and not hard to see why. Should go well.” 2nd 11/2 Mark Loughnane

“Robero – In top order after a recent win at Southwell – up 6lbs for that but the horse is still fairly well-handicapped on old form as once rated in the 90’s. Draw 4 a plus and track fine. Should go well with Toby riding again.” 1st 3/1 Gay Kelleway

“Monbeg Theatre – Was a prolific winner through the spring and autumn. This is a qualifier for the Cheltenham Festival so we’d be opening up options for us if we run well today. Should be thereabouts. Page rides and claims 3lbs e/w.” 3rd 9/1 Jamie Snowden

“LE CAPRICIEUX looks to have solid claims in this race today he is a horse that deserves a win. I think strong each-way claims today.” 2nd 6/1 Gary Moore

“SAN PEDRO DE SENAM shows a liking for the track and won well here a few weeks ago. Top weight but with Niall Houlihan taking off a whopping 10 pounds he is getting all the help he can. Should go well again.” 2nd 6/1 Gary Moore

 

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Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

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You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

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NEWBURY: Champ A Knockout Bet In The Challow Hurdle……….

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

1.50 – Betway Heed Your Hunch Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+) 2m4½f ITV4

6/6 – French (2) or Irish (4) bred
5/6 – Favourites placed
5/6 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
5/6 – Had won over the trip (2m4f) before
5/6 – Aged 5 years-old
5/6 – Had won 2 or more times before (hurdles)
5/6 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
3/6 – Had raced at the track before
2/6 – Ran at Newbury last time out
2/6 – Winning favourites
2/6 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 9/2
Brave Eagle (11/4) won the race in 2017

TQ VERDICT: Unblinking and Coeur Blimey are the two recent winners in the race that command respect but you feel a bit more is needed here. The Nicky Henderson camp have won two of the last six runnings of this, including twelve months ago so their DRAGON D’ESTRUVAL is certainly one to have on your radar too. He’s won two of his last four starts and despite flopping last time here at the track that run came over 3m and he didn’t really see it out. The drop back to 2m4f looks ideal and with that last run also coming off a break then he should be a lot better for it. I’m A Game Changer and John Constable are others to consider on their best form but the consistent Subcontinent might give the selection most to think about coming from the Venetia Williams yard that have been amongst the winners over the festive period.

2.25 – Betway Mandarin Handicap Chase (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-135) 3m2f ITV4

7/7 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/7 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
7/7 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
6/7 – Aged between 6-9 years-old
6/7 – Had won between 1-2 times before (fences)
6/7 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
6/7 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
5/7 – Irish bred
5/7 – Unplaced favourites
3/7 – Had raced at the track before
2/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Ran at Fontwell last time out
2/7 – Trained by Charlie Longsdon
Daklondike (6/1) won the race in 2017

TQ VERDICT: The Pipe stable took this race last year and will be trying to follow-up – this time with Aurillac, but the horse will need to overcome a 654-day absence, so it would be a top training feat. Sandy Beach is the only course winner in the field and is a consistent sort that punters are sure to latch onto, while proven distance winners Reikers Island, who won well last time out at Wincanton, and Carole’s Destrier can’t be ruled out. However, with the Charlie Longsdon stable targeting this race with success twice in the last seven years their BALLYDINE (e/w) is the call. He’ll be a lot fitter for his return fifth last time at Newcastle but wasn’t beaten far and the winner of that race has since franked the form by going in again. Soft ground is fine too and he’s won over 3m in the past so this slightly longer trip looks within range.

 

3.00 – Betway Challow Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m4½f ITV4

12/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/12 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
12/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/12 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
11/12 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/12 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
9/12 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Wichita Lineman, 2006)
8/12 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
8/12 – Had won over 2m4f or further (hurdles) before
8/12 – Won last time out
8/12 – Had won a Grade 2 Hurdle race before
6/12 – Aged 5 years-old
6/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/12 – Trained by Nick Williams
2/12 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

TQ VERDICT: Some interesting sorts on show here but it’s hard to get away from the Nicky Henderson-trained CHAMP, who hugely impressive last time at Newbury and looks destined to go onto bigger and better things – he’s currently a leading fancy for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March. He beat fourteen other rivals that day by 4 ½ lengths and with that proven course experience then he’s got a lot going for him. He’s a strong traveller too that acts well in soft conditions and will have the added assistance of Barry Geraghty riding. Of the rest, Coolanly and Brewin’Upastorm were good winners last time out, while the in-form Paul Nicholls yard have the hat-trick seeking Getaway Trump in the race and he looks as if he’s got more to come too. Kateson is another CD winner in the field that has done little wrong, while Alsa Mix, from the Alan King team has also caught the eye with smooth wins at Exeter and Sandown but all those others mentioned have a bit to find on the current ratings with the selection so I’ll take Champ, who is named after a certain AP McCoy, to continue his winning ways and maintain his trainers excellent 28% strike-rate with this hurdlers at the track.

 

3.35 – Betway Novices’ Handicap Chase (Class 3) (4yo+) 2m6½f ITV4

10/10 – Won between 0-1 times over fences
9/10 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
8/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/10 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
7/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Venetia Williams
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Colin Tizzard, who has a 24% record with this chasers at the track, has two in the race – Golden Sunrise and Mount Rushmore – but both were pulled up last time out so are on a bit of a recovery mission. Walt bounced back to form last time with a nice win at Taunton, but this looks harder and he’s also 11lbs higher this time. Course winner Wilde Blue Younder would be interesting if his jumping holds up but he’s taken a tumble in both his last two races, so I’d rather see it on the track first. So, the two that stand out are Polydora, who was a good winner at Newcastle last time out and will be popular with the champion jockey – Richard Johnson riding. He’s up 11lbs though so more is required but can still make his presence felt and the Tom Lacey yard boast a decent 43% (3 from 7) record with their chasers at the course. However, the call here is to side with the Nicky Henderson-trained WENYERREADYFREDDIE. This improving 7 year-old was has won his last two and despite being up 3lbs here looks as if he’s got more up his sleeve. He did tend to jump left the last day but that hopefully won’t be an issue around this left-handed track and he looks the sort to improve again now upped in trip too – the Henderson team last took this race in 2008.

CHELTENHAM: New Year’s Day Key Trends………..

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

1.25 – BetBright Dipper Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f166y ITV

16/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Went onto run in a Cheltenham Festival race (1 winner)
13/16 – Came from the top three in the betting
13/16 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
13/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/16 – Had won over fences at 2m3f or further before
12/16 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
7/16 – Returned 5/4 or shorter in the betting
7/16 – Ran at either Sandown or Cheltenham last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Aged 7 years-old
2/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
1/16 – Went onto win the Arkle Chase (My Way De Solzen, 2007)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

2.00 – Download The Betbright App Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f166y ITV

16/16 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
15/16 – Raced within the last 2 months
14/16 – Had won at least twice over fences before
14/16 – Either French (5) or Irish (9) bred
13/16 – Had won over 2m4f or further (fences) before
13/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
13/16 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Rated 138 or higher
11/16 – Aged 8 or older
11/16 – Carried 11-0 or less
11/16 – Unplaced last time out
10/16 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
10/16 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
9/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
8/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard
1/16 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
Ballyhill (9/1) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

2.35 – Simplify Horse Racing Selections With Betfinder At Betbright Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m ITV

14/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
12/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
11/15 – Had won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
11/15 – Had won a hurdles race over at least 2m4f before
10/15 – Rated 130 or higher
10/15 – Unplaced last time out
9/15 – Went onto run in a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
9/15 – Carried 10-9 or more
9/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
8/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
6/15 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
5/15 – French bred
4/15 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Winning favourites
1/15 – Won by a mare
1/15 – Went onto win the World Hurdle later that season (Big Buck’s, 2009)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/2


3.10 – Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle Cl2 2m4f110y ITV

13/14 – Went on run in a race at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
13/14 – Won by either a French (5) or Irish (8) bred
12/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
10/14 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
9/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Had won at Cheltenham before
9/14 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
8/14 – Went onto run in the World Hurdle later that season
6/14 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
6/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/14 – Trained by the Pipe stable
Wholestone (9/4 fav) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team