TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 2nd March 2019

TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 8th Dec 2018

 

  • NEWBURY: Can Nicholls Land Another Greatwood Gold Cup?…..
  • DONCASTER: National Clues In The Grimthorpe Chaes
  • KELSO: One LIVE ITV Race From Scotland……
  • TQ UPDATE: More Winners Around the Yards……….

Hi,

Less than two weeks now till the tapes go up for another Cheltenham Festival, so this time of year is always a bit dire in terms the quality of racing.

However, let’s be thankful we’ve not got a repeat of last year as this coming weekend was a wipe-out for jumps racing twelve months ago when the ‘Beast From The East’ battered the country.

We’ve still seven LIVE ITV races to take in across three venues – Kelso, Newbury and Doncaster so even though we don’t want to go mad and dent our Cheltenham betting banks there’s still some fair races to get stuck into.

At Donny, we might get a few more Grand National clues in the Grimthorpe Chase – four of the last 14 winners went onto run in the ‘big one’ at Aintree later that season. While down at Newbury the Greatwood Gold Cup takes centre stage – a race the former champion trainer – Paul Nicholls – has had plenty of success in recently. He’s bagged the winner 8 times in the last 15 runnings!

So, loads more to look forward too and, as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

 

Have a Great Weekend!!

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes: In-Form Snowden Continues to Delight Punters…..

A lot to shout about again this week as we’ve had top winners for the likes of Michael Scudamore, Henry Oliver, Tim Vaughan, Gary Moore, Gay Kelleway, Gary Moore and Jamie Snowden – but it’s the Snowden camp that get a special mention this week with two more successes – Hogan’s Height and Early Moring Rain – and that takes them to 27 winners this jumps season. There will be more to come too with Jamie’s string increasing by the month and he’s got plenty to look forward to a Cheltenham too as his Fact Of The Matter heads for the Cross Country race on the Wednesday.

Here’s just a sample of recent winners…………………

“Purple Rock – Won well last time out and is a proven course and distance winner. Up 3lbs for that and has come out of the race well enough to suggest he can go close again here. Danny Muscutt keeps the ride.”

1st 15/8 Gay Kelleway

“Landsman – Hoping we’ve found a good opportunity here to get off the mark over hurdles. Former Tony Martin runner that was third on debut for us earlier this month at Huntingdon. This race looks easier than last time and after returning from a 5 month break last time has improved for that outing. Step up to 2m4f is a slight unknown as this will be the furthest he’s gone but we feel it will suit and the flat track and better ground will also help on that front. “

1st 13/8 Tim Vaughan

“Gleno – Won his bumper last year on heavy ground and has not figured much in his novice hurdle races. More chances now qualified for handicaps, but I have slight ground concerns that conditions may be quick enough today. “

1st 4/1 Gary Moore

“Louis Vac Pouch – Very useful sort and a nice recruit to the yard. Had his issues but delighted with his win on stable debut last time out – travelled and jumped really well that day at Ludlow and has come out of it really well. Slight step up in trip will be fine and will be okay on the quicker ground. We’ve 10lbs in-hand with the nearest rival – Niven – so really we’d be disappointed if we can’t follow-up here.”

1st 1/16 Henry Oliver

“Hogans Height – Was a decent Novice Chaser last season and won his Novice Hurdle at Catterick last time out, so running here again a plus. Will appreciate this step up in trip and looks to have a decent chance if defying his penalty. Tim’s the obvious danger in what looks a straight shootout!”

1st 11/10 Jamie Snowden

“Northern Beau – Decent and consistent mare that was second last time out at Leicester. That came off a break so will be better for it and we are also 2lbs lower here. Tongue-tie remains on but we are also putting the cheekpieces on today to eke out a bit more. Only 4 runners and really looks between us and two others. Ground fine and taster of the track last time will also hopefully help. Another bold bid expected.”

1st 7/4 Michael Scudamore

“Early Morning Rain – Improved on her debut run to be a fine second last time out – this looks slightly weaker on paper but Anthony’s horse could be anything and is, therefore, feared.”

1st 5/1 Jamie Snowden

“Tarada has run with great promise in both of his races to date, a bumper at Carlisle and a hurdle at Chepstow. The form of both those races has worked out really well. Tarada is an enormous horse who has been given plenty of time by his owner, he clearly has ability and I hope the ground does ride on the soft side because this track could be a bit on the sharp side for him. It’s been an impossible time recently and with no rain falling or forecast I’m having to run some of these horses in less than suitable races on ground that will hopefully be safe. The Hobbs and Nicholls horses are the obvious dangers but feel we come here with a big chance. Tarada is a gentle giant, he’s good to ride and easy to deal with.”

1st 9/4 Oliver SherwoodYou can see the best of our recent quotes here

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 8 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!

Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

YOUR direct line through to the UK’s TOP Trainers – EVERY time they have a horse running…

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Get involved and tap into top daily info from 19 leading yards, below – Just drop us a line here and we can discuss any offers we’ve got on at the moment.

 

You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

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NEWBURY – It’s Greatwood Day at the Berkshire Track……

 

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4/RUK)

2.05 – William Hill Supporting Greatwood Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 3 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y ITV4

8/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
8/9 – Aged 10 years-old
7/9 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
5/9 – Favourites unplaced
5/9 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
4/9 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
2/9 – Won their last race
1/9 – Winning favourites
Trainer David Pipe won the race in 2015 and 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 6 renewals is 6/1

Some old favourites here for this vets race, including The Last Samuri, who could be on his way to another tilt at the Aintree Grand National. However, it’s interesting that 8 of the last 9 winners of this race have gone to 10 year-olds, so all the runners of this age have to be respected. With that in mind, the Rebecca Curtis-trained JOE FARRELL (e/w) might be worth chancing. This 10 year-old has not been seen since winning the Scottish National last April, but he’s a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past and is also a proven course winner. Stamina is assured and with just 15 career runs he’s very lightly-raced for an old-timer so having less miles on the clock is sure to be a plus. Of the rest, the Dr Newland-trained Abolitionist will be popular and heads into the race as the form horse after winning well at Aintree back in November, while if fit after a long break the Alan King-trained Ziga Boy would be interesting too.

 

2.40 – William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV4

14/15 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
13/15 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
13/15 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
12/15 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
12/15 – Won over this trip previously
11/15 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/15 – Officially rated 139 or higher
9/15 – Favourites placed
8/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
8/15 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
7/15 – Won by a French-bred horse
6/15 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/15 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/15 – Favourites  to win (1 joint)
2/15 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/15 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
1/15– Won their last race
Thomas Crapper won the race 12 months ago
Sametegal won the race in 2016
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

 

Another tough renewal of this race, but many key trends to note. 14 of the last 15 winners carried 11-5 or less in weight, so the top five on the card would have this stat to overcome – Dolos, Warriors Tale, Master Dee, Mercian Prince and Javert. Having run in the last five weeks is another plus, as is previous experience of running at Newbury. Plus, horses aged 8 or younger have also gone well. The likes of War Sound, Gala Ball and Happy Diva certainly tick a lot of boxes and are sure to be popular, especially HAPPY DIVA, who rarely runs a bad race. This 8 year-old mare gets in with 11st to carry, plus connections also take 3lbs off with the jockey’s claim. He won well last time at Huntingdon and prior to that was third to the classy Cyrname – form that has been more than franked since. The other key trend to note here is the good record of the Paul Nicholls yard – they’ve won this race a staggering 8 times in the last 15 years. He runs three – Dolos, Warriors Tale and SAN BENEDETO (e/w) and even though the first two of those mentioned fall down on the weight stat, coming from the Nicholls camp means they can’t be ruled out either. San Benedeto looks the better value though and this 8 year-old gets in with 11st 5lbs too – just on the weight bracket. Jockey Nick Scholfield has a good record in this race and has also won on this horse before. His falling mark of 147 makes him interesting too as has been as high as 157 not so long ago – all three of the Nicholls runners are respected, but San Benny certainly looks the best value.

 


DONCASTER: The Grimthorpe Chase Takes Centre Stage………

 

DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4/RUK)

1.50 – 888Sport Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m96y ITV4

Only 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Aged 9 or younger
6/6 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
5/6 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
5/6 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
5/6 – Finished 4th or better last time out
5/6 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
5/6 – Irish bred
4/6 – Favourites place in the top two
4/6 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
4/6 – Ran at Doncaster (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
2/6 – Aged 9 years-old
2/6 – Favourites
2/6 – Won last time out
Brydon Boy won the race in 2017

Only six previous runnings of this race but with all those winners aged 9 or younger then this will hopefully rule a few out. Having run in the last 6 weeks is another plus, as is running well (top 4) last time out. The one that catches the eye is BORDEAUX BILL. This Bran Ellison-trained 8 year-old is only 4lbs higher than when winning at Kelso last time out and if settling a bit better over this longer trip then should have more to come. With only 10-12 in weight in this better race and the drying ground in his favour too then he heads here with a lively chance. Gunfleet and Knock House have the form to go close, plus Who’s My Jockey, who returned to form last time out, can go well too. Finally, course and distance winner – Three Ways – is another to respect from the in-form Jamie Snowden team, who had winners in the week.

2.25 – 888Sport Bet £10 Get £30 Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV4

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
6/7 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
4/7 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
4/7 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
3/7 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
2/7 – Trained by Brian Ellison
2/7 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 4/1

Another race the Paul Nicholls yard does well in so anything they run should be noted – at this stage they’ve COPAIN DE CLASSE engaged. Yes, the horse has not fired of late but is certainly better than recent runs suggest. This does look easier than the races he’s been taking in too and is also down a few pounds so in a race the yard like to target he might be worth chancing. The hat-trick-seeking and very consistent Cracking Find is another to note and is a proven course and distance winner here, while Movie Legend rarely runs a bad race so it’s hard to put you off this one either.

 

3.00 – 888Sport Take ‘Em On Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m96y ITV4

5 previous running
5/5 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/5– Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/5 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
4/5 – Favourites placed in the top 2
4/5 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
3/5 – Won by the favourite (1 co-fav)
3/5 – Irish bred
The average winning SP in the last 5 years is 9/4

Mares only race here. Bonza Girl is yet to taste defeat, so punters are sure to latch onto her once they see a string of wins next to her name, but this is another step up and certainly her hardest task to date. Hidden Dilemma and Shantung all contenders too that have shown a good level of form, but the official ratings suggest the Sherwood-trained Papagana and the Paul Nicholls runner DANSE IDOL are the ones to focus on. The pair were second and third in the same race at Sandown last a few weeks ago but with Danse Idol coming out on top that day then I expect her to uphold that form on the same terms.

 

3.35 – 888Sport Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f ITV4

14/14 – Aged 8 or older
13/14 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
12/14 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
11/14 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
10/14 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
10/14 – Aged 9 or older
10/14 – From the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Rated 131 or less
8/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/14 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
6/14 – Won their last race
6/14 – Irish bred
4/14 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/14 – Favourites
8 year-olds have won 3 of the last 4 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

ALL of the last 14 winners of this race were aged 8 or older so if the 7 year-olds – Beau Du Brizais and Dingo Dollar run then this pair would have this stat to overcome. 10 of the last 14 winners also carried only 10-12 or less so this also knocks a fair few out – but is better news for the likes of Acdc, Lough Derg Jewel, Doing Fine and Chidswell. 8 year-olds have won 3 of the last 4 runnings so the Kim Bailey runner – Rocky’s Treasure – has this as a plus. He’s improved loads this season and is a past course winner. He does have a lot of weight though (11st 12lbs to carry) and the bubble did burst on his progress last time when third at Warwick, albeit to the useful Ok Corral. Looking Well and Barney Dwan can’t be ruled out but one that ticks a lot of boxes re the trends is CHIDSWELL (e/w). The former is a proven CD winner too and both head here off the back of solid runs. With only 10-7 and 10-4 to carry then they get in with low weights and that will be a bit help over this 3m2f trip. He gets in here with just 10st 4lbs and will be full of confidence after a nice win at Kelso in January. A 4lb hike for that looks fair and more is needed in this better race, but the low weight makes him very interesting.

KELSO: A Rare Visit North Of The Border For ITV……….

KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RUK)

3.15 – Edinburgh Gin Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV4

9/10 – Aged 7 or younger
9/10 – Favourites placed in the top three
9/10 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
8/10 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/10 – Won last time out
5/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Had raced at Kelso before
3/10 – Winning favourite
3/10 – Ran at Musselburgh last time out
2/10 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

Some promising sorts here but the ratings suggest this will be between the Nicholls-trained GETAWAY TRUMP and the Harry Whittingham runner – Rouge Vif. The first-named was a solid fourth in the Betfair Hurdle last time out – beaten just over 6 lengths to the useful Al Dancer. That could turn out to be solid form with the winner well-touted for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. The longer trip should help him as he seemed to get a bit outpaced that day, while it’s interesting that connections are sending him this far north to a track they are 2-from-4 at with their hurdlers.  Rouge Vif is certainly no back-number though and has done little wrong in his last four runs over hurdles (2 wins, 2 seconds). I just feel over this slightly longer trip that it will suit the Nicholls runner a bit more and the form of his recent fourth in the competitive Betfair Hurdle edges it. Windsor Avenue can do best of the rest.

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team