TQ Weekend Wrap – Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 3rd Nov 2018

Galway Plate Chase Free Tips and Trends

 

  • WETHERBY: A Top Field Line-Up For The Charlie Hall……
  • ASCOT: Jumping Returns To The Berkshire Track……
  • BREEDERS’ CUP: Main Four Races Covered…………
  • TQ UPDATE: Another Top Week For The Yards…….

 

Hi,

So, that’s pretty much it for the turf flat season – plenty of highlights that include Cracksman’s Champion Stakes win, plus Enable’s defence of the Arc – but everything switches to the jumps this weekend and we get going with a bang with two top LIVE cards from Wetherby and Ascot.

At Wetherby we’ve three live races to enjoy, which are headlined by the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase – a race that trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies won for the fifth time last year with his popular grey Bristol De Mai. This 7 year-old will be running again and if he does win he’ll be the first horse to defend his Charlie Hall crown since See More Business (1999 & 2000).

Then at Ascot we’ve got four more LIVE races to enjoy as jumping returns to the Berkshire venue – the Sodexo Gold Cup in the feature event.

That’s not all as it’s also Breeders’ Cup weekend across the pond as Churchill Downs stage the even for the ninth time. There is plenty of European interest again this year so we take a look at the four main races from a trends angle – we it helps!

So, plenty to look forward too and, as always, we’ll be hoping to find plenty more winners for you with free tips and all key trends for the LIVE races. Enjoy!

Have a Great Weekend!

 

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This Week At Trainers-Quotes: Plenty More To Shout About This Week

Our jumping yards are starting to find their feet, plus there’s a lot to like about the way our AW stables are performing at the moment too. Lee Carter’s Ross Raith Rover was a nice winner at Kempton on Wednesday night after being upped to 1m4f and the yard still feel he’s well-handicapped and now they know he stays the longer trip feel it’s opened up a lot more doors – a horse to follow. It was also nice to see Julia’s Boxatricks win a race up at Newcastle on Thursday night – a great ride from Shelley Birkett.

Our jumping yards were headlined by nice winners for Michael Scudamore (Some Chaos), Oliver Sherwood (Cheeky Rascal), Gary Moore (Knocknanuss) and Jamie Snowden (Our Reward) so there’s plenty to look forward to from out National Hunt stables too.

Here’s just a sample of recent winners…………………

“Ross Raith Rover – Looks our best chance on the day. Won well last time at Chelmsford three weeks agao and is only 3lbs higher. Up from 1m2f to 1m4f here and tries this distance for the first time. But ran on well the last day to suggest it’s within range so hoping there is more to come. Is a horse that settles well too so that will help with the longer trip and Paddy continues in the saddle to claim a handy 5lbs again. Track is fine – we think it actually suits him better than Chelmsford. Trip is the big question mark as you never really know until you try it – but hopeful on that score and if he does get it then should be bang-there!”
1st 6/1 Lee Carter

Boxatricks – Seems to be improving now handicapping – he went up 2lbs for his second place last run so wouldn’t get into this grade of race again. Well-in here as Shelley takes off another 3lbs too – only downside is he hangs right and is drawn 1, which isn’t ideal but if Shelley can work some magic then must be going close. 1st 3/1 Julia Feilden

“Our Reward – Has run some good races this summer without winning and some poor races. His mark has dropped as a result and he’s run better than this finishing position suggests back over hurdles the last two times. He should be capable of being very competitive in this grade.”
1ST 3/1 Jamie Snowden

“Knocknanuss – Ran too freely at Plumpton latest when falling. Bit to find on these terms with the Nicholls horse, but the horse is well and if settles a bit better today, should have a good chance. Jamie rides.” 1st 9/4 Gary Moore

“Krystallite – Is a much better filly over this CD. Drifting to an attractive price and despite the wide draw always should be feared over this track and trip.” 2nd 14/1 Scott Dixon

“Westbury won a bumper at Huntingdon on his only outing last spring, he’d always gone well at home but it was very satisfying to see him win in such good style on debut. Westbury is a good looking son of Westerner, he’s done plenty of schooling but in the absence of rain I thought I’d give him another spin in a bumper. The Tom George and Paul Nicholls runners could be fairly useful so might not be easy giving them weight with the penalty but Harry’s 7lb claim helps a bit on that score. Should not be far away. 3rd 7/2 Oliver Sherwood

“Some Chaos – Had a few niggles – hence to long absence from the track, but had some very good Point form back in Ireland and bit and pieces of form in bumper novice hurdles. First run for us though so we’ll learn more here but goes chasing now and should be better over the bigger obstacles being a winning pointer. Goes nicely at home and is Fit and ready to run – goes without saying after such a break will improve for this but should still go well. One to note going forward though and with an injury-free spell should be winning races like this – should be thereabouts here today.”
1st 11/2 Michael Scudamore

“Congress Place – Looks a bit of a shootout race between Collect Call and Winter Light but if one (or both) have an off day then our filly could sneak a place. Only 7 runners so just the two places up for grabs though for the e/w but she’s done well from here two starts to date and seems to be going the right way. Kevin claims 5lbs here too but is drawn 7 of 7 so will need a tiny bit of luck from there. Small place claims if the main pair cut each others throats.”
2nd 33/1 Mick Appleby

“Escalator – Highly-tried last time in a Listed race at Ayr so will find this drop back into a handicap company more to his liking. Stays a bit further than this mile but being a stiff finish that will help. Is well after a break too and despite being 6lbs higher than last win (2 runs ago) seems to have more going for him this time. Nice price we we head here as one of the main players.” 1st 7/2 Charlie Fellowes

“Lady Alavesa – Gutsy last time out to win here in a Seller. Into a Claimer this time and on these terms we’ve every chance again. CD winner at the track and Josie rode last time too so is back in the saddle. Weight of 8-13 helps so if running to the level of last time then hopeful we’ve got decent claims and probably my best chance on the day.”
1st 11/4 Gay Kelleway

“Cheeky Rascal arrived from the Richard Hannon yard a couple of weeks ago where he had some good form behind him on the flat (rated in the 70’s) and his owners wanted to see how he would enjoy jumping. He’s schooled extensively since he arrived, he jumps well and most importantly he seems to enjoy it too. Apparently Cheeky Rascal lived up to his name as a 2yo but he’s been a complete star since arriving at Rhonehurst he’s very easy to deal with. Teaser looks the danger but if his jumping holds up then we should have a decent chance. Leighton will give him every assistance from the saddle.”
1st Evs Oliver Sherwood

“Treasure Me – Looks our better chance on the day. Is 2-from-4 on the AW so that’s a plus. First run here at Kempton but should be fine on that score. Ran in a better race last time but got a bit worked up before the race that day. Seems well after a month off and draw 6 is perfect. Open race but if form of her wins from 2 and 3 runs back would see her go well.”
3rd 6/1 Charlie Fellowes

“Little Miss Kodi has been largely disappointing for her last few runs. We hope the step back up to 7f in a moderate race will help her to get involved and she has a good draw, which should help her. Difficult to recommend but small e/w chance if re-capturing her old form.”
1st 12/1 Mark Loughnane

“Wicker – We were confident of a good run until we got handed the 12 draw. The filly is very well though and Ray takes off a handy 5lbs. Been second at the track before too so that helps but due to the draw downgraded to a place chance. Each-way.”
2nd 9/1 Jane Chapple-Hyam

“Diakali – First run back after a shortish break. Seems to be working well at home though. A good clear round could see him go close with Josh riding.”
1st 9/4 Gary Moore

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Don’t forget the TQ VIEW daily selection is what the team feel is the ‘best quote’ of the day. With over 5 years’ experience speaking to all the trainers they are in no better place to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Yet again more proof that our TQ info that – don’t forget comes direct from the yards each day – is a must-have for any serious punter!

Also, a lot of our members use the TRAINERS-QUOTES info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!! Or even back other horses in certain races with the trainers also taking about other horses in races they’ve heard good words about!

 

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You can check out all the latest winning quotes on the main site here………..

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WETHERBY: It’s Charlie Hall Chase Day……………..

Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.05 – OLBG.com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

11/11 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
10/11 – Had between 2-5 previous hurdles wins to their name
9/11 – Never raced at Wetherby before
9/11 – Having their first run of the season
7/11 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/11 – Placed favourites
6/11 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
6/11 – Had won a NH Flat race previously
4/11 – Ran at Punchestown last time out
5/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by John Quinn
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/2

A decent mares’ only contest here and the Fergal O’Brien yard could have a say with – OSCAR ROSE – was a very easy winner at Worcester last week. This is a big step up in grade and she’s a bit to find on these terms with several, but she won with bundles in-hand so might be worth giving a chance to in this better contest. Whatzjazz and Irish Roe are others that should not be far away, but LADY BUTTONS was a fine second in this race last year and can go well again. She only went down by two lengths 12 months ago and is sure to be well tuned-up for another big run. She’s also a course winner so we know the track suits and off a mark of 137 is certainly one of the main players.

 

2.40 – bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

14/16 – Were having their first run of the season
14/16 – Rated 151 or higher
13/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Had won over at least 3m over fences before
11/16 – Aged 8 or older
11/16 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
10/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Ran at either Ayr (3), Aintree (5) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
9/16 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
6/16 – Had run at Wetherby before (2 won)
6/16  – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/16 – Trained by Evan Williams
Bristol De Mai (6/1) won the race in 2017
Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race in 1992, 1994, 2005, 2007 & 2017
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 15/2

No Thistlecrack – so that’s a shame – but connections feel the ground isn’t going to be soft enough and they don’t want to risk him. The ground has also seen last year’s winner – Bristol De Mai – being pulled out and we are left with just five runners! Definitly Red, who was third last year, will have an easier chance this year and is a proven course winner. Despite his form tailing off last season he still recorded top wins at Aintree and Cheltenham in the Cotswold Chase and with last year’s winner not in the race now then he must have a better chance. Double Shuffle made a name for himself with a fine second in the King George last season but failed to back that up with flops at Aintree and Sandown after. On a plus, he’ll love the better ground but he’s a horse that just doesn’t win enough for me – he’s recorded only one win from his last 14. He has also been second on his first run back for the last three seasons so might be one for the forecast players, while he does get a handy 6lbs from Definitly Red. Nicholls has a fair record in the race too – winning it three times – so his runner BLACK CORTON are feared and gets the nod in what doesn’t look the best renewal. This 7 year-old shot up the ranks last season with five wins and won first time out last season too. He’s sure to make a bold bid from the front again and on this quicker ground might be hard to peg back. Virgilio is another that will like the better ground and has done well over the Summer by winning twice. This is a much harder race though so despite having conditions in his favour would need to find a tiny bit more. Regal Encore makes up the field and is the oldest in the line-up at 10. He’s only won three times over fences but seems to save his best for Ascot these days.

 

3.15 – bet365 Hurdle (West Yorkshire Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m26y ITV4

16/16 – Had won over at least 2m3f over hurdles before
15/16 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
14/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
13/16 – Failed to win their last race
12/16 – Officially rated 149 or higher
12/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Aged 6,7 or 8 years-old
8/16 – Ran at either Aintree (5) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
9/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
6/16 – Had won at Wetherby before
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

Clyne is a consistent performer that can go well but you feel the ground would need to be a tad softer for this horse to be at his best. Old Guard will be popular too as he can expected to be better for a recent second at Kempton, but this is a big step up in trip and the only time he’s tried 3m he’s been well beaten. So, really the ratings suggest this race will revolve around the 158-rated WHOLESTONE. This 7 year-old has hit the top three in 13 of his 16 hurdles starts and won 5 times. He’s the clear top-rated in the field and this looks a decent race to start his season off again. He’s a regular in the top staying hurdle races at the main festivals but should find this company slightly easier. The Twiston-Davies yard are going well too, while he was only beaten 2 lengths in this race 12 months ago – it would be a shock if he’s not involved again. Of the rest, the Jamie Snowden yard are also going well so their MONBEG THEATRE (e/w) is also interesting at a price. He’s a proven course and distance winner that battled well to beat Nautical Nitwit last time out here. Yes, he’s got more to find but he seems to be a horse going the right way and from 13 hurdles starts has been placed in the top three 10 times so rarely runs a bad one.

 

 

ASCOT: Jump Racing Returns To The Berkshire Track…….

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.50 – Ascot Underwriting Chase (A Novices´ Limited Handicap) Cl3 2m3f ITV4

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Irish bred
4/5 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Aged 6 year-old
3/5 – Yet to win over fences
2/5 – Had run over hurdles at Ascot before
0/5 – Winning favourites
Trainer Oliver Sherwood has a 33% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 23% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 23% record with his chasers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 6/1

Trainer Paul Nicholls often does well with his chases here at Ascot (23%) and with his horses in decent order during this early part of the main jumps season, then anything he sends to post should be respected. At this stage he’s got AMOUR DE NUIT entered and after two good recent wins will head here fitter than most. The yard had three entries for the race so the fact this one gets the nod is a good sign – he gets the call. Nicky Henderson is another trainer that does well over fences here so his runner – Wenyerreadyfreddie (Henderson) are respected and is sure to be popular but also doesn’t look much value. The Hobbs-trained Sternrubin was an easy winner at Exeter last week and can’t be ruled out either but this will be harder. Finally, the Gary Moore yard won this race 12 months ago so their LARRY (e/w) is another to consider. He ended last season with two nice wins over hurdles and could make into a better chaser with another summer on his back. Peppay Le Pugh and Caid du Lin are others to consider – especially the first-named that comes from the in-form Dan Skelton yard and gets in here with just 10-4 in weight – that would make him dangerous to overlook too.

 

2.25 – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f ITV4

12/15 – Aged 8 years-old or younger
11/15 – Irish (5) or French (6) bred
10/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences before
9/15 – Having their first run of the new season
9/15 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
8/15 – Rated 130 or lower
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
5/15 – Aged 8 years-old
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Ran at either Ascot (2) or Aintree (2) last time out
3/15 – Won carrying 11-12
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

SHANTOU ROCK is a consistent performer that looks a safe bet to run his race. He’s yet to finish out of the top three from five starts over fences and went well fresh last season when winning first time at Newton Abbot. The trip and ground are perfect, and the Skelton yard have made a cracking start to the season already – he can go well and gets the thumbs-up here. The improving Champagne At Tara is another leading players that catch the eye and could have more to come. Ink Master is interesting with 10-7 but fell last time out so would need to bounce back from that, while Vosne Romanee and Rock On Rocky make up the rest of the five runners.

 

3.00 – Bet With Ascot Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m ITV4

14/14 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
14/14 – Had won over at 2m or 2m1f over hurdles before
12/14 – Never raced at Ascot before
11/14 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
9/14 – Having their first run of the season
9/14 – Unplaced last time out
8/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Winning favourites (1 co, 2 joint)
6/14 – Ran at Huntingdon (3) or Aintree (3) last time out
5/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
4/14 – Won by a French bred horse
3/14 – Ridden by a conditional jockey
2/14 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Won by trainer Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

A decent renewal with some leading handicap hurdlers on show. The powerful Nicholls and King yards have won four of the last 14 runnings between them so their runners, Divin Bere (Nicholls) and Fidux (King) are all sure to be popular. Of that lot, Nicholls’ DIVIN BERE, who was a close second in the 2017 Fred Winter, has been given a confidence booster when winning easily on the flat at Bath the other day and looks well-handicapped off 138 – a pound lower than that FW second. He disappointed last season but the Nicholls yard have taken their time with him and at just 5 years-old should have more to come – he’s one for the shortlist with this better ground a plus for him too. Verdana Blue is the only course and distance winner in the field and returned to the track with a nice win at Kempton last month – beating the useful Old Guard by 7 lengths. A 3lb rise for that looks fair and he can’t be ruled out, but it won’t be easy with topweight of 11-12. GLOBAL CITIZEN did well during the early part of last season but flopped in at Aintree in the Top Novices’ Hurdle. The better ground will suit here though, and he can be expected to be a lot better for the break. The Pauling yard have also been having winners recently too, so he’s another that can go well. Simply The Betts seems to be going the right way after wins at Warwick and Hexham, but this looks harder. Sussex Ranger and the lightly-weighted Jumping Jack are others to note in a very competitive contest.


3.35 – Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4

13/13 – Had won a chase race over at least 2m4f before
10/13 – Didn’t win last time out
10/13 – Had run at Ascot before (4 won)
8/13 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
9/13 – Unplaced favourites
8/13 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
8/13 – Having their first run of the season
8/13 – Unplaced in their last race
8/13 – Carried 10-10 or more
8/13 – Aged 8 or older
8/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
6/13 – Officially rated 135 to 138 inc
5/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/13 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/13 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
Go Conquer won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

The Pipe yard have won well in the race over the years too – they have Ramses De Teilee entered at this stage but is on a bit of a recovery mission after a two below-par recent runs. Kings Lad heads here in form after a good win last time out so is sure to be popular but more is needed in this harder race. Traffic Fluide was a solid second on his return run too and represents the Gary Moore yard that won this in 2016 – he can go well off just a 2lb higher rating than last time. However, it’s hard to get away from last year’s winner – GO CONQUER. Now with the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard this 9 year-old took this race by just over 4 lengths last time and despite being 5lbs higher is a horse that goes well fresh. The good ground will help too, and TD yard have been in good order over the last few months. Nicholls runs two – Art Mauresque and Adrien Du Pont – so can’t be dismissed, with jockey bookings suggesting Adrien Du Pont, with Harry Cobden riding, being their main one. Skelton’s Too Many Diamonds did well summer jumping a few months ago so has improved a lot. The yard are going well and in this higher grade he gets in with a handy weight.

 

BREEDERS’ CUP: Churchill Downs Hosts This Years Event……..

6.04 – Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Turf) 1m3f

Past Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Winners

2017 – Wuheida
2016 – Queen’s Trust
2015 – Stephanie’s Kitten
2014- Dayatthespa
2013 – Dank
2012 – Zagora
2011 – Perfect Shirl
2010 – Shared Account
2009 – Midday
2008 – Forever Together
2007 – Lahudood
2006 – Ouija Board
2005 – Intercontinental
2004 – Ouija Board

Key Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Trends

14/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/14 – Won by either a UK (6) or US (8) based yard
14/14 – Had raced in the last 10 weeks
12/14 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower (note, different tracks)
11/14 – Previous Group/Grade 1 winners
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/14 – Had won no more than 6 times
6/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
6/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Drawn in stalls 5,6 or 7 (note, different tracks)
4/14 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 6 runnings went to trainer Chad Brown

The boys in blue of Godolphin took this race 12 months ago and they look to have another great chance this year – this time with WILD ILLUSION. Since running second in the Epsom Oaks back in June she’s progressed to land the Group One Nassu Stakes and Group One Prix de l’Opera. She beat Magic Wand by a length the last day too so should have the measure of that O’Brien runner again and can cap-off what’s already been a cracking season for the horse and the Godolphin camp. Of the rest, the Frankie-ridden Eziyra, from the Dermot Weld yard, is feared too, while from the US horses Sistercharlie is their main hope and fits a lot of the key trends.

 

7.36 – Breeders´ Cup Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) 1m

Past Breeders’ Cup Mile Winners

2017 – World Approval
2016 – Tourist
2015 – Tepin
2014 – Karakontie
2013 – Wise Dan
2012 – Wise Dan
2011 – Court Vision
2010 – Goldikova
2009 – Goldikova
2008 – Goldikova
2007 – Kip Deville
2006 – Miesque’s Approval
2005 – Artie Schiller
2004 – Singletary

Key Breeders´ Cup Mile Trends

14/14 – Had won over at least a mile before
14/14 – Had won at least 4 times before
13/14 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/14 – Aged 4 or older
10/14 – US-trained winners
10/14 – Had won a Group/Grade1 race before
7/14 – Drawn between stalls 8-11 (note, different tracks)
7/14 – Winning favourites (including 7 of last 9)
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – French-trained winners
0/14 – UK/IRE-trained winners
Trainer Mark Casse has won 2 of the last 3 renewals

Plenty of European interest here with Aidan O’Brien having four runners – Clemmie, Gustav Klimt, I Can Fly and Happily – jockey bookings suggest the Ryan Moore-ridden Gustav Klimt is their main hope. Frankie rides Expert Eye for Stoute, while the William Haggas team send over One Master, who is improving all the time after two good recent wins. The French raider – Polydream – is another that sets a decent standard after winning the Group One Maurice de Gheest at Deauville back in August. She’s since flopped on Arc day at Longchamp though with ONE MASTER (e/w) beating her just over 3 lengths. With that in-mind the Haggas horse has to be one for the shortlist but might need a bit of James Doyle magic from stall 1. It is worth noting it’s not been a great race for the foreign raiders though. So, the other interesting runner is the US-trained OSCAR PERFORMANCE. This 4 year-old ticks a lot of the main stats and was a top winner of the Grade One Woodbine Stakes last time out. Draw 5 looks ideal and the only time he’s raced on yielding ground he dotted-up by 6 lengths.

 

8.56 – Longines Breeders´ Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) 1m4f

Past Breeders´ Cup Turf Winners

2017 – Talismanic
2016 – Highland Reel
2015 – Found
2014 – Main Sequence
2013 – Magician
2012 – Little Mike
2011 – St Nicholas Abbey
2010 – Dangerous Midge
2009 – Conduit
2008 – Conduit
2007 – English Channel
2006 – Red Rocks
2005 – Shirocco
2004 – Better Talk Now

Key Breeders´ Cup Turf Trends

13/14 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
13/14 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
13/14 – Had won at least 3 times before
11/14 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Had won a Group/Grade 1 before
10/14 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher (note, different tracks)
10/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
10/14 – European-trained winners
9/14 – Placed favourites
4/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/14 – US-trained winners
1/14 – Winning favourites
4 of the last 7 runnings went to trainer Aidan O’Brien

This really should be ENABLE first the rest playing for places. The John Gosden-trained Arc heroine is the clear form pick and the highest-rated horse in the field and should take all the beating again here. Those against her might look to her having a hard race last time at Longchamp but she’s had a month to get over that and let’s not forget it was only her second run this year! She’s entitled to have come on for that and Frankie continues in the saddle. Of the rest, jockey Ryan Moore has a great record in this race – with 4 wins – so his mount – Magical – can’t be ruled out. She gets 4lbs from Enable and also bounced back to form with a top win in the Group One Fillies and Mares race on Champions Day at Ascot last time out. Waldgeist, who was fourth in the Arc, is another to consider, while the US challenge is lead by the Bill Mott-trained Channel Maker.

 

9.44 – Breeders´ Cup Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Dirt) 1m2f

Past Breeders’ Cup Classic Winners

2017 – Gun Runner
2016 – Arrogate
2015 – American Pharoah
2014 – Bayern
2013 – Mucho Macho Man
2012 – Fort Larned
2011 – Drosselmeyer
2010 – Blame
2009 – Zenyatta
2008 – Raven’s Pass
2007 – Curlin
2006 – Invasor
2005 – Saint Liam
2004 – Ghostzapper

Key Breeders´ Cup Classic Trends

14/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/14 – Had won over at least 9f before
13/14 – Raced in the last 9 weeks
13/14 – Previous Group/Grade 1 winners
13/14 – USA-trained winners
13/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Had won at least 5 times before
10/14 – Won last time out
9/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Had raced at Belmont Park last time out
2/14 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 4 winners were trained by Bob Baffert
In the 32 runnings to date of the Breeders’ Cup Classic – 4 year-old horses have the best record – winning 14, while 3 year-olds have taken 12 and 5 year-olds have won 8.

With three of the last 4 winners of the Classic trained by Bob Baffert then it’s hard to ignore his runners – West Coast and Mckinzie – both look evenly matched and can go well. Of the two MCKINZIE just gets the nod though. He’s won four of his 5 starts and there should be more to come. Being a 3 year-old he gets an allowance too and draw 6 looks ideal. The US runners over the years also have a cracking record in the race – winning 13 of the last 14 – so others to note are Accelerate, Catholic Boy and Mind Your Biscuits, while the European challenge is spearheaded by Mendelssohn, Thunder Snow and the prolific ROARING LION (e/w). Yes, the last-named has had a tough season but is unbeaten (4-from-4) over this 1m2f trip and that’s hard to ignore. He got up in the closing stages over a mile at Ascot but is a better horse over this trip, while his gutsy attitude will also be a big asset.

 

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THAT’S YOUR LOT!!!

Have a GREAT Weekend

TQ Team