York Ebor Meeting Free Tips and Trends – DAY FOUR (Sat 25th Aug 2018)

York Ebor Meeting Free Tips and Trends - DAY FOUR (Sat 25thAug 2018)

The York Ebor Festival concludes on Saturday 25th August 2018, as the four-day meeting heads into it’s final day.

Four more LIVE ITV races to take in, including the Group Three Strensall Stakes but the final day is always spearheaded by the Ebor Handicap – Europe’s most valuable handicap – did you know that ALL of the last 16 Ebor Handicap winners carried 9-4 or less in weight, while 13 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure stall?

As always, we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races – use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners.

Enjoy!

 

DAY FOUR – Saturday 26th August 2017

 

1.50 – Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m208y ITV

15/15 – Had won over at least a mile before
15/15 – Had won at least twice in the their career
14/15 – Had between 2 and 4 runs already that season
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/15 – Had won over a mile before
7/15 – Won by Godolphin
6/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/15 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/15 – Had won at York before
Mustashry (5/2 fav) won the race in 2017
Note: The 2009 running was a dead-heat

TQ VERDICT: The 2017 winner of the race – Mustashry – is a good place to start and he’s the only proven course and distance winner in the field. This Sir Michael Stoute runner was a good winner at Sandown last time out and has been lightly-raced this season with another crack at this race having looked the firm target. He got the job done by ¾ of a length last year and with conditions to suit once more then it will be a shock if he’s not in the mix. However, this could be a good chance for the consistent LORD GLITTERS to get a much-deserved win for the season. This talented 5 year-old grey has been placed in the Queen Anne, Summer Mile and Sussex Stakes this season – all better-graded races than this so should find this Group Three company a lot easier. He’s also a horse that finishes his races off well so the step up to 1m2f here looks a great call by connections. He’s rated 116 and that the clear highest in the race – 4lbs higher than Mustashry. Of the rest, the Queen’s runner Seniority was pulled out of a race in the week to head here instead and was a nice winner at Goodwood last time out in the Golden Mile to suggest he’s worth a crack in this higher grade – he is still rated 12lbs lower than the selection. The Andrew Balding team are going well so their Morando is another to consider, plus Frankie is an interesting booking for the consistent Zaaki – Stoute’s second runner in the race. However, Threading looks a big danger too – mainly due to the fact she gets a whopping 10lbs off last year’s winner and Lord Glitters. The fillies and 3 year-old allowance means off a rating of 110 then she’s technically the one to beat and is also a proven course winner. SDS is booked to ride but she would need to bounce back from two below-par runs at Newmarket and Goodwood – capable, but a bit to prove is the best way to sum her up.

 

2.25 – Sky Bet Melrose Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f ITV

13/15 – Not raced at York before
13/15 – Had 4 or more runs that season
11/15 – Won carrying 9-0 or less
11/15 – Had won over 1m4f or further
11/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
11/15 – Had a top 5 finish last time out
9/15 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
4/15 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/15 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
Secret Advisor (5/1 fav) won the race in 2017

TQ VERDICT: With 11 of the last 15 winners carrying 9-0 or less then this might be deemed a negative for the top four on the card – Proschema, Making Miracles, Corgi & Berkshire Blue. 13 of the last 15 winners had raced four or more times that season while don’t be too worried if your fancy hasn’t raced at York before – only two of the last 15 winners had! It’s a race in-form jockey Jamie Spencer has won a few times in the past too and his mount – SUPERNOVA (e/w)certainly looks interesting after two nice wins at Goodwood and Doncaster. He’s up in trip here but has been staying on really well over 1m4f recently to suggest this step up in distance to 1m6f will suit. Yes, more is needed on a 5lb higher ratings too but with just four career runs this David Simcock runner probably hasn’t finished improving yet. With 8st 7lbs in weight he gets in with a low mark and Spencer knows the horse well, having ridden him in all his four career runs to date. The Charlie Appleby yard took this race last year and will be trying to add to that success with Ghostwatchthey’ve got a decent 21% strike-rate with their 3 year-olds here. Another yard that do well with this age group at the track is Sir Michael Stoute (23%) so his recent Chelmsford scorer – Mekong – can’t be overlooked either. With just 8st 2lbs then HEART OF GRACE (e/w) will be popular too from the William Haggas team. She’s lightly raced (3 runs) and it’s interesting that connections pitch her at this level on her handicap debut. She won with more in-hand than the neck winning margin last time and should be well suited by this step up in trip. Finally, Tom Dascombe boasts a 30% record with this 3 year-olds here so a case can also be made for his top-weight, Proschema.

 

3.00 – Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV

14/15 – Failed to win last time out
14/15 – Aged 5 or younger
13/15 – Drawn in stalls 4 to 8 (inc)
12/15 – Priced 7/1 or shorter
11/15 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
11/15 – Never run at York before
11/15 – Winning distance 1 length or less
10/15 – Had 4 or more runs that season
6/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/15 – Won by Andrew Balding
2/15 – Won by Sir Michael Stoute
1/15 – Placed horses from stall 1
Talaayeb (9/1) won the race in 2017

TQ VERDICT: We’ve several runners that performed in this race last year – Above The Rest (8th), Gordon Lord Byron (7th), So Beloved (5th), but it was SUEDOIS that did best after finishing third. He was only a neck and a short-head adrift 12 months ago and after a solid second in the Lennox Stakes last time out at Goodwood then he returns this year in flying form. The form of that Goodwood race has since been franked with the winner – Sir Dancealot – winning the Hungerford Stakes last weekend, so everything looks in place for a big run from the second-highest rated runner in the field. The one he’s got to beat though is Expect Eye, who is rated 4lbs higher than him and also sets the standard on form after a fine second in the Group One Sussex Stakes last time out. Before that he dotted-up in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and with Frankie riding he’s sure to be popular. He’s a big player but last year’s third looks the slightly better value in a race we know he’s gone well in before. Of the rest, Andrew Balding has won the prize in 2009 and 2014 so his course winner Donjuan Triumphant can’t be ruled out, while despite only managing 8th last year ABOVE THE REST (e/w) heads into the race in much better form this time – having won his last two – and can do best of those at slightly bigger odds.

 

3.40 – Sky Bet Ebor (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m6f ITV

16/16 – Carried 9-4 or less
15/16 – Aged 6 or younger
13/16 – Won from a double-figure stall
13/16 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
12/16 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/16 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/16 – Winning Distance – 1 length or less
9/16 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
7/16 – Had run at York before
5/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Irish-trained winners (4 of the last 9)
4/16 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/16 – Ran at Galway last time out
2/16 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/16 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/16 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013)
1/16 – Winning favourites
Just one winning favourite since 1999
Trainer Luca Cumani won the race in 1999, 2004 & 2007
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 22/1

TQ VERDICT: Last year’s Ebor winner – Nakeeta – will be looking to become the first horse since 1922/23 to land back-to-back wins in Europe’s most valuable flat handicap but is rated 4lbs higher this year and also being a 7 year-old now falls down on the key age trend – 15 of the last 16 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old. On a plus, draw 15 looks decent (he won from stall 18 last year), while he was only 3 ¾ lengths behind Stratum at Newbury last time out. The Willie Mullins camp took the race in 2009 and have another decent hand this year with Whiskey Sour and Stratum in the race. The last-named has been all the rage for this after dotting-up at Newbury last time out and ticks most of the main trends like age and weight. However, this has also been a graveyard race for favourites – with just one market leader winning since 1999 and unless you are on at much bigger prices he certainly looks no value in a race of this nature. He’s also been handed draw 4 and this looks a negative with 13 of the last 16 winners coming from a double-figure berth. WHISKEY SOUR (e/w) is a versatile horse that William Buick has been booked to ride. He’s just as good over hurdles as he is on the flat and will be spot-on for this after a fine fifth in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal Meeting in June and wasn’t disgraced when seventh in the Galway Hurdle last time. This 5 year-old ticks the main age trends and gets in with just 9st 3lbs in weight, while with 4 of the last 9 winners Irish trained this is another positive for him. Draw 18 looks ideal too. Jockey Jamie Spencer has won this race a few times in the past, so his mount Blakeney Point is another to note. The first-time blinkers are an interesting addition to this 5 year-old that has been running in better class races than this of late. Sea The Lion is another Irish raider that comes here on a four-timer but is also up 11lbs from his last win and at 7 years-old falls down on the age trend. Teodoro would be a contender but would need to prove he gets the trip as all his runs to date have been over 1m4f or shorter. Trainers Jedd O’Keefe (19%) and Ralph Beckett (20%) do well with their older horses at the track so their Lord Yeats, who flopped in the race last year, and Mountain Bell can be totally discounted. The Balding horses are going well – they run Montaly and Scotland – and they both certainly have the past form to go well. Muntahaa and proven course and distance winner Dylan Mouth can’t be ruled out but the other one I like here is WEEKENDER (e/w). Yes, with 9st 12lbs in weight then he’s got a bit to prove with this burden but he’s a classy sort that could easily turn out to be much better than a handicapper. He’s run well in Listed and Group races of late and has only finished out of the top three once from 9 starts. Frankie gets the leg-up and he’s been kept fresh for this after a close second in the Listed Grand Cup Stakes here over this trip last time. Draw 13 looks fine too for this 4 year-old and although it won’t be easy having to give 10lbs away to the Mullins favourite he certainly looks the better value – he’ll be looking to give trainer John Gosden his first win in this race.