York Ebor Meeting Free Tips and Trends – DAY ONE (Weds 22nd Aug 2018)

York Ebor Meeting Free Tips and Trends - DAY ONE (Weds 22nd Aug 2018)

The horse racing action steps up a few gears again on Wednesday 22nd August as the four-day Ebor Festival from York gets going. Bundles to look forward to with 10 Group races spread over the meeting that include the Juddmonte Stakes, Nunthorpe Stakes and the Yorkshire Oaks, while the meeting is always concluded with the Ebor Handicap on the final day – the most valuable flat handicap in Europe!

We get going on Day One with four LIVE ITV races, including the Group Three Acomb Stakes, where 13 of the last 15 winners won last time out, while we’ve also the Great Voltigeur – a decent St Leger Trial – but the opening day’s feature is the Group One Juddmonte International Stakes – a race that is worth just over £540k to the winner!

As always, we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races – use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners.

Enjoy!

 

DAY ONE – Wednesday 22nd August 2018

 

1.55 – Sky Bet Symphony Group Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 5f89y ITV

9/9 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the betting
9/9 – Carried 8-13 or more
8/9 – Had run 6 or more times that season
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
6/9 – Had run at York before (3 won)
7/9 – Had won 5 or more times during their career
5/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/9 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
2/9 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
0/9 – Winning favourites
Desert Law (14/1) won the race in 2017

TQ VERDICT: The Paul Midgley team took this race 12 months ago and with three runners again this year – Final Venture, Line Of Reason and Tanasoq they clearly mean business once more. All three are respected and there doesn’t seem to be much between then trio either. Another yard that has done well in the race in recent years is the Kevin Ryan camp – winning it in 2013 and 2014. They run TOMMY TALYOR (e/w), who deserves to win a big handicap like this after going close several times before. He returns to York, which was the scene of his last career win, and being a Listed winner at the track then this drop back into a handicap gives him an obvious chance off a mark of 97. Yes, the trip might be a tad on the sharp side, with all wins coming over further, but we know he’ll be finishing his race off well and that will be a plus in the closing stages if able to keep tabs on the others during the early part of the race. The consistent EL ASTRONAUTE (e/w) can be expected to be in the mix again and rarely runs a bad race. From 34 turf starts he’s been placed in the top three 19 times. He’s a course winner too and even though he looks to be in the handicapper’s grip off 101 it’s interesting connections put on the talented Rossa Ryan to claim a handy 3lbs – that brings him back down to his last winning mark. Godolphin’s Culturati is another course winner that is sure to be popular, while Tis Marvellous is the highest-rated in the field and bounced back to form last time when beating Gracious John, who was down the field in this race 12 months ago, at Ascot on Shergar Cup day a few weeks ago. Copper Knight and Fashion Queen are others that can’t be discounted.

 

2.25 – Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

14/15 – Had won at least once before
13/15 – Won their previous race
12/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Had won over 7f or further before
7/15 – Ran at either York (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
7/15 – Ran at either York (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out
2/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/15 – Ridden by James Doyle
3/15 – Had run at York before
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
1/15 – Winners from stall 1
6 of the last 9 winners were foaled in March or later
8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5-9 (inc)
Wells Farhh Go (10/1) won the race in 2017

TQ VERDICT: With 8 of the last 11 winners coming from stalls 5-9 (inc) then of the eight runners this is a plus for Ventura Ocean, Phoenix Of Spain, Watan and Swissterious. We could have an Aidan O’Brien runner in the race too – Broome – who was a good winner at Galway last time out. However, that came over 1m 1/2f, so this drop back to 7f might not be ideal, plus it also came of softer ground than he’s likely to get here. Trainer Charles Hills, who won this race in 2014, runs two – Pogo and Phoenix Of Spain and of that pair the last-named looks to have more potential with just two career runs. James Street was a gutsy winner at Nottingham last time out but the second has since flopped so that form does look a bit suspect to me. So, the two I like here ate PERSIAN MOON and WATAN. The first-named is the only proven course and distance winner in the field and heads here on a three-timer after wins at Yarmouth and here at York. Another step up will be needed in this Group race but it’s a race the yard has won a few times recently and the champion jockey – Silvestre de Sousa – has been booked to ride. Watan is interesting too as this colt is the least exposed in the race. He won well on debut at Goodwood in what looked an above average maiden. Yes, the second has since been beaten at odds-on but this Hannon horse looked to have more to come at Goodwood last time and also has some fancy Group One entries for later in the season.

 

3.00 – Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m4f ITV

14/16 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
13/16 – Had won at least twice already in their career
13/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (3), Godolphin (2) or John Gosden (4)
7/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Went onto be placed in the St Leger
2/16 – Went onto win the St Leger (Lucarno, Rule of Law)
3/16 –  Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/16 – Winners from stall 1
Cracksman (4/6 fav) won the race in 2017
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 3 times before (2001, 2003 & 2016)
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has won this race 7 times before (1982, 1994, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2011 & 2013)
13 horses have won this before going onto win the St Leger

Note: The 2008 renewal was run at Goodwood

TQ VERDICT: The Aidan O’Brien-trained Kew Gardens was a nice winner of the Queen’s Vase over 1m6f at Royal Ascot in June and backed that up with a Group One victory in France last time out. He stays further than this 1m4f trip and is a big player. However, as a proven Group One winner then he’s got to give 5lbs away to the rest and that might not be easy in this St Leger trial. He’s rated 114 but has to give 5lbs away to the 115-rated CROSS COUNTER, who was an easy winner of the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last time out. This Godolphin runner powered away to beat a good field by just over 4 lengths that day and with only six career runs should have more to give – he gets the call, with William Buick riding. Wells Farhh Go is another with a big chance though after his easy win in the Bahrain Trophy at HQ last time out. He ran from the front that day, so we can expect similar tactics here and we know he stays further than this 1m4f trip. He also likes it here at York – he’s 2-from-2 at the course and landed the Acomb stakes at this meeting last season. Old Persian and Sevenna Star are others to note from those at bigger prices but would need be bounce back from poor last time out runs.

 

3.35 – Juddmonte International Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV

14/16 – Previous Group 1 winners
14/16 – Had 3 or more previous runs that season
13/16 – Had not run at York before
13/16 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
12/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/16 – Aged 4 or older
11/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
10/16 – Had won 5 or more times before
8/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – Ran at either Ascot (5) or Sandown (3) last time out
4/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/16 – Won the Epsom Derby that season
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 winners in total)
5 of the last 10 winners were Irish-trained
Ulysses (4/1) won the race in 2017

Note: The 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket

TQ VERDICT: The clear one to beat here is the 103-rated Poet’s Word, who was a gutsy winner of the King George at Ascot last time out. He’s back from 1m4f to 1m2f here but seems equally as effective over both these middle-distance trips – he’ll be looking to follow-up Sir Michael Stoute’s win in the race from last year and provide the yard with their seventh success in the contest. However, he did have a very hard race last time at Ascot and it’s not going to be easy giving 7lbs away to the 3 year-olds – one of which is ROARING LION. This year’s Coral-Eclipse winner got the better of Saxon Warrior in a battle up the Sandown hill last time out but was also a tidy winner over course and distance when taking the Dante Stakes here in May. He’s 2-from-2 over this trip and even though he’s rated 8lbs lower than Poet’s Word the 7lbs he receives from that horse brings them very close. Surprisingly, trainer John Gosden is yet to land this race, but he looks to have every chance here with a horse that is making this 1m2f trip his own this season – he just gets the nod. Of the rest, the 2,000 Guineas winner – Saxon Warrior is top class too, however, is also yet to win over further than a mile – he’ll be looking to give trainer Aidan O’Brien his fifth win in the race since 2008. Godolphin’s Benbatl and Thunder Snow can be given squeaks off their 123 and 124 ratings but the last-named hasn’t been seen since March so will need to be spot-on for this return. Irish Derby winner – Latrobe is another with a chance and is yet to finish out of the first two from his five career starts, but this would be by far his biggest test to date. Without Parole flopped in the Sussex Stakes last time over a mile and the form of his Group One St James’s Palace Stakes win at Royal Ascot is starting to look suspect with the runner-up – Gustav Klimt – running poorly in the Hungerford Stakes recently. The step up to 1m2f might eke out a bit more and on breeding the longer trip looks within range for this Frankel colt – if you can forgive that last flop then he might not be one to rule out just yet – especially with Frankie Dettori back in the saddle. Finally, Thundering Blue has improved again this season too and is proven here over this course and distance – but this is a big step up and being rated 109 has 21lbs to find with Poet’s Word.