York Ebor Meeting Free Tips and Trends – DAY TWO (Thurs 23rd Aug 2018)

York Ebor Meeting Free Tips and Trends - DAY TWO (Thurs 23rd Aug 2018)

The York Ebor Festival continues on Thursday 23rd August 2018, as the four-day meeting heads into it’s second day.

Four more LIVE ITV races to take in, including the Group Two Lowther Stakes, plus the Group One Darley Yorkshire Oaks – did you know that 16 of the last 17 Yorkshire Oaks winners came from stalls 4 or higher, plus were ALL of the last 17 winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old?

As always, we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races – use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners.

Enjoy!

 

DAY TWO – Thursday 23rd August 2018

 

1.55 – Skybet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV

15/16 – Had won over 5 or 6f before
15/16 – Had won at least once before
14/16 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
14/16 – Had not run at York before
14/16 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
13/16 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/16  – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
12/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/16 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/16 – Trained by William Haggas
Threading (9/2) won the race in 2017
Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket

TQ VERDICT: The Aidan O’Brien yard have never won the Lowther Stakes, so their FAIRYLAND will be looking to break that record here and looks to have a big chance of doing just that. This 2 year-old was a close third to the classy Main Edition at Ascot in the Albany Stakes and with the winner since franking that form to land the Sweet Solera Stakes then everything points to a big run. The horse has ben kept fresh with two months to get over that last run and that looks to be an advantage. Her biggest danger looks to be the recent Keenland Stakes winner – Angel’s Hideaway – who landed that Group Three with ease last time. Frankie is back in the saddle, but this horses two career wins have been with Robert Havlin riding so even though Frankie riding is not a negative it’s still something to note. Of the rest, trainer Richard Fahey won this in 2016 and his Flawless Jewel really could be anything after dotting-up by 16 lengths at Pontefract last time out. This is, however, a big step up in class and is also up from 5f to 6f here. The Andrew Balding and Brian Ellison yards are in decent form at the moment, so their runners Firelight and The Mackem Bullet can’t be totally overlooked but would both need to improve on what they’ve shown to date. The same can be said for the Kevin Ryan-trained Queen Jo Jo, who will need to kick on again from her recent Beverley win in this higher grade.

 

2.25 – Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes (CLASS 2) (2yo) 6f ITV

16/16 – Had 2 or more career runs
16/16 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
16/16 – Had 1 or 2 career wins to their name
15/16 – Foaled in Feb or later
11/16 – Won from stall 10 or higher
11/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Foaled in Feb or March
6/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Brian Meehan
3/16 – Trained by William Haggas (inc 3 of last 5 winners)
2/16 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon (last two)
2/16 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/16 – Placed horses from stall 1
Tangled (15/2) won the race in 2017
Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket
2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 renewals were run at Doncaster

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Richard Hannon has won the last two runnings of this race and clearly means business again with Masaru, Magical Wish, Big Baby Bull and He’Zanarab entered to run. Of that quartet the Ryan Moore-ridden He’Zanarab is sure to be popular and heads into the race as the only proven course and distance winner in the field after scooting-up by just over 2 lengths here at the end of last month. Prior to the recent Hannon winners in the race it was a prize the William Haggas team did well in too – they won the 2013, 2014 and 2015 renewals! They also boast the best strike-rate at the track with their 2 year-olds (25%) so with that in-mind their FANAAR (e/w) looks worth an interest. This colt was only just touched-off at Yarmouth last time out after a 2 month break but the introduction of the blinkers for the first time looks interesting and if that ekes out a bit more improvement then I expect a much better run for a yard that often do well in the race. Godolphin’s Jfoul and the Kevin Ryan-trained Celebrity Dancer are others to consider but from what we’ve seen on the track so far, the one to beat looks to be KODYANNA. This course winner was only beaten two lengths in a Group Three in France last time out and before that won well here over 5f. She ran on well that day so the 6f trip is fine and also gets a handy 3lbs from the main Hannon runner – He’Zanarab.

 

3.00 – Clipper Logistics Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

14/15 – Had won 2 or more times before
13/15 –  Winning distance of 2 lengths or less
12/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/15 – Returned 15/2 or bigger in the betting
11/15 – Ran at either Ascot (4), Sandown (2), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
11/15 – Won from stall 12 or lower
10/15 – Carried 9-0 or less
10/15 – Had 4 or more runs already that season
10/15 – Unplaced last time out
2/15 – Won by the Hills (Barry/Charlie) stable
1/15 – Winning favourites
Flaming Spear (10/1) won the race in 2017

TQ VERDICT: With 12 of the last 15 winners aged 3 or 4 then this age group looks the one to focus on. We’ve no 3 year-olds in the race but plenty of 4 year-olds – 11 of the 20 runners. 11 of the last 15 winners also came from stalls 12 or lower, while 10 of the last 15 carried 9-0 or less in weight. The four year-olds that are drawn 12 or lower are Sharja Bridge, Original Choice, Silver Lane, Kynren and Sea Fox. All five are respected but for the purpose of sticking my neck out the two that catch the eye are KYNREN (e/w) and SEA FOX (e/w). The first-named has only finished out of the frame once from seven runs on the turf and that came in the ultra-competitive Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot two runs ago. He bounced back with a fine third here in the John Smith’s Cup last month and is only a pound higher. The drop back to a mile is fine but we also know he stays further than this, which will be a plus in the closing stages. Sea Fox heads here on a three-timer after wins at Lingfield and Newmarket – there could be more to come. Yes, this is a step up in grade and he’s also 4lbs higher but he’s an improving 4 year-old that could still be ahead of the handicapper. He gets weight from all the others and even though his best runs have been over 7f of late has run well over further in the past. Gabriele Malune, who claims 5lbs, continues in the saddle. Of the rest, the Queen’s Seniority, who landed the Golden Mile at Goodwood last time out, will be popular with Ryan Moore riding, while the course and distance winner – Afaak – is another to note as he hails from the Charles Hills yard that have a good record in the race. Finally, Firmament was the 2016 winner of this race so is another to consider but hasn’t sparkled this season and is 2lbs higher than that success of a few years ago.

 

3.35 – Darley Yorkshire Oaks (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) ITV

17/17 – Aged 3 (11) or 4 (6) years-old
16/17 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
16/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
15/17 – Had at least 3 previous wins to their name
14/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
12/17 – Previous Group 1 winners
11/17 – Had won over 1m4f before
7/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Had run in that season’s Epsom Oaks (2 winners)
4/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (Won it 8 times in all)
2/17  – Trained by Jim Bolger
Enable (1/4) won the race in 2017
Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket

TQ VERDICT: A decent renewal of this Group One that has an open feel to it. Aidan O’Brien, who has won this race four times, is mob-handed as usual with three of the 8 runners and of his trio the 113-rated Magic Wand probably edges it. She was a good winner of the Ribblesdale Stakes at Ascot in June but is on a bit of a recovery mission after flopping as an odds-on favourite in the Irish Oaks last month. The horse that beat him that day – SEA OF CLASS – is also in opposition again here and even though Magic Wand clearly ran below-par last time out she’s still got just over 9 lengths to make up. The Haggas team are yet to win this race but seem to have a cracking chance with Sea Of Class and being one of five 3 year-olds in the race also gets a handy 9lbs from the older horses. Coronet was a fair second in the race last year and even though she’s not got a horse of Enable’s class to deal with this time, she was still 5 lengths adrift. Frankie rides though and based on this is sure to be popular and is also the only proven course winner in the field – she should be thereabouts. Laurens can give the favourite most to think about after winning her last two in decent fashion – both were Group One races – so she’s proven at the grade. However, the big question mark is the step up in trip from 1m2f to 1m4f. She’s held on gamely over the shorter trip but this will be the furthest she’s gone to date and with the others sure to exploit this unknown I’d rather be with a prove performer over the trip. Of the rest, EZIYRA (e/w) is an interesting runner for the shrewd Dermot Weld yard. They don’t have many runners over here so the ones they do make the effort to send over should always be noted. She’s won 5 of her 9 starts and is yet to finish out of the first three. She’ll need to step up from winning at Group Three level last time but did it well and don’t forget she was a fair third to Enable in the Irish Oaks in 2017 – William Buick booked to ride is the final icing on the cake. Finally, Horseplay landed the Lancashire Oaks last time out at Haydock and with only eight career runs is a horse that we might not have seen the best of yet.