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25th September 2021

2021 Ebor Handicap Betting Trends & Free Tips

Run over 1m6f the Skybet-sponsored Ebor Handicap is open to horses aged 3 or older and is run at York racecourse in August at their 4-day Ebor Festival Meeting. We’ve only seen one winning favourite land the prize in the last 22 years, so be wary of the market leaders, while with 18 of the last 19 winners were aged 6 or younger then you might want to avoid any older horses in the race.

We look back at past winners and give you the key trends ahead of Europe’s most valuable flat handicap race – run this year on Saturday August 21st 2021.

 

Key Ebor Handicap Betting Trends

18/19 – Aged 6 or younger
17/19 – Carried 9-5 or less
16/19 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
15/19 – Won from a double-figure stall
13/19 – Winning Distance - 1 length or less
12/19 – Carried 9-1 or less
12/19 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/19 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
10/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Had run at York before
6/19 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Irish-trained winners (5 of the last 11)
4/19 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/19 – Ran at Galway last time out
2/19 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/19 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013)
2/19 – Winning favourites
Just two winning favourites since 1999
Since 1980 only one winner aged 7 or older
6 of the last 7 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 20/1

Past Skybet Ebor Winners

2020 – Fujaira Prince (11/2)
2019 – Mustajeer (16/1)
2018 – Muntahaa (11/1)
2017 – Nakeeta (12/1)
2016 – Heartbreak City (15/2)
2015 – Litigant (33/1)
2014 – Mutual Regard (20/1)
2013 – Tiger Cliff (5/1)
2012 – Willing Foe (12/1)
2011 – Moyenne Corniche (25/1)
2010 – Dirar (14/1)
2009 – Sesenta (25/1)
2008 – All The Good (25/1)
2007 – Purple Moon (7/2 fav)
2006 – Mudawin (100/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (11/1)
2004 – Mephisto (6/1)
2003 – Saint Alebe (20/1)
2002 – Hugs Dancer (25/1)

Note: 2008 renewal at Newbury over 1m3f

 

TQ VERDICT: 24 runners here for the competitive Ebor Handicap so a case can certainly be made for many. 6 of the last 7 winners, however, have been aged 5 or 6 years-old, while we’ve only seen one winner aged 7 or older since 1980. The 7+ year-old trend would be a negative for Mt Leinster, Fujaira Prince, Shanroe, Euchen Glen and On To Victory. 17 of the last 19 winners also carried 9-5 or less in weight - so the top 14 on the card also have this stat to overcome. If we go back to the positive age trend that’s seen 5 and 6 year-olds doing well in recent years, then of those with 9-4 or less in weight - SEXTANT, MAKAWEE, MIRANN, TRIBAL CRAFT and GLOBAL STORM are the ones that tick a lot of boxes. You also can’t rule out Godolphin’s 4 year-old - Live Your Dream - who has won his last two in decent fashion, but is up another 7lbs here and is 3lbs worse off with another Godolphin runner - Global Storm - here - who he only beat ¾ of a length last time at HQ. With that in mind, GLOBAL STORM (e/w) gets the first pick and looks the better value to reverse that recent Newmarket form. Yes, he’s up 4lbs in the ratings, but has been running well over this 1m6f trip this season to suggest he’ll be thereabouts again. The other to have onside is the already mentioned - TRIBAL CRAFT (e/w) - who ran a blinder in the G2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood last time out. This Andrew Balding-trained 5 year-old was only 2 lengths behind the classy Wonderful Tonight in that race and now dropped into a handicap will be finding the opposition a lot easier. He’s also a proven CD winner and jockey David Probert is riding at the top of his game. Of those at the head of the weights, Euchen Glen, and Fujaira Prince, who won this pot last year (6lbs higher now) are the class acts in the field, but have 10-2 and 10-0 to carry, which will make life very hard despite their ability, while the Haggas pair of Ilaraab and Hamish are interesting - especially the later who showed ability a few seasons ago but also returns from a 428-day break. The Irish have won the race 3 times in the last 7 runnings and are well-represented here, with Sonnyboyliston, Mt Leinster and Mirann three leading runners from across the Irish Sea to respect.

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