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23rd March 2023

2021 Irish Derby Free Tips and Trends

The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby is a Group One contest run over 1m4f at the Curragh racecourse.

In recent years, the race has been dominated by one trainer – Aidan O’Brien, who has landed the lucrative pot a staggering 14 times since 1997, including 11 of the last 13 renewals, and you can expect the Ballydoyle handler to be mob-handed once again. He also won the race in 2019 with 33/1 shot Sovereign, so don’t be afraid to back any of O’Brien’s bigger-priced runners.

Did you know?  Top jockey, Ryan Moore, is yet to win the Irish Derby.

We take a look back at past winners, plus give you all the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal, this year run on Saturday 26th June.

Recent Irish Derby Winners

2020 – SANTIAGO (2/1 fav)
2019 – SOVEREIGN (33/1)
2018 – LATROBE (14/1)
2017 – CAPRI (6/1)
2016 – HARZAND (4/6 fav)
2015 – JACK HOBBS (10/11 fav)
2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 - CAMELOT  (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR (4/1)

Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

18/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
16/18 – Won by an Irish-based yard
16/18 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
14/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Won a Group race before
14/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/18 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
13/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/18 – Failed to win their last race
12/18 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
12/18 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
11/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won the race 14 times in total)
7/18 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (3 winners, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
4/18 – Previous Group 1 winners
4/18 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
Ryan Moore has NEVER won the Irish Derby
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 6/1


TQ VERDICT: The Aidan O’Brien yard have won the Irish Derby a staggering 14 times and with five of the 11 runners this year, they’ve a strong hand in making it win number 15. Of course, anything that jockey Ryan Moore picks to ride for O’Brien should be noted - but surprisingly Moore has NEVER ridden the winner of the Irish Derby! Yes, it’s hard to believe with all the O’Brien winners, but he’s taken to break his duck in the race this year with the 115-rated HIGH DEFINITION. This well-bred Galileo colt was doing all his best work at the finish in the Dante Stakes over 1m2f, so this step up to 1m4f should be just the trick. He’s also a proven course winner here at the track when winning here twice last season. Hurricane Lane won the Dante Stakes earlier this season, so beat the selection that day, and has since run well to be third in the Epsom Derby - he’ll be no pushover and it’s worth pointing out he lost both front shoes in the Derby. But I’ll take the O’Brien runner to reverse that Dante form over this longer trip. O’Brien also has Arturo Toscanni, Matchless, Van Gogh and Wordsworth in the race with the last-named looking their next best chance with Seamie Heffernan riding - he’s ridden four Irish Derby winners for O’Brien too. Of the rest, it’s hard to ignore Epsom Derby second Mojo Star too, who comes over from the Richard Hannon yard, while Irish 2000 Guineas winner - Mac Swiney, who was also fourth in the Derby, can’t be ruled out but the trip again here would be the question mark for me.