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30th July 2021

2021 John Smiths Cup Trends and Tips

Run over 1m2f at York racecourse the John Smith’s Cup (originally the Magnet Cup) is one of the first races the well-known brewery decided to sponsor back in 1960, and having stuck loyal to the contest ever since means this is now the longest running association with a flat race in the world.

We take a look back at past winners and highlight some key John Smiths Cup trends to look out for ahead of the 2021 renewal, this year run on Saturday July 10th.

 

Did you know - 17 of the last 19 John Smith’s Cup winners were aged 5 or younger, while 13 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 9 or higher………………..?

 

Recent John Smith’s Cup Winners.......

2020 – Sinjaari (11/1) William Haggas
2019 –
Pivoine (14/1) Andrew Balding
2018 – Euchen Glen (20/1) Jim Goldie
2017 –
Ballet Concerto (8/1) Sir Michael Stoute
2016 – Educate (18/1) Ismail Mohammed
2015 –
Master Carpenter (14/1) Rod Millman
2014 –
Farraaj (6/1) Roger Varian
2013 –
Danchai (10/1) William Haggas
2012 –
King’s Warrior (10/1) Peter Chapple-Hyam
2011 –
Green Destiny (6/1) W Haggas
2010 – Wigmore Hall (5/1) M Bell
2009 – Sirvino (16/1) T Barron
2008 – Flying Clarets (12/1) R Fahey
2007 – Charlie Tokyo (11/1) R Fahey
2006 – Fairmile (6/1 jfav) W Swinburn
2005 – Mullins Bay (4/1 fav) AP O’Brien
2004 – Arcalis (20/1) J Howard Johnson
2003 -  Far Lane (7/1) B Hills
2002 – Vintage Premium (20/1) R Fahey

John Smith’s Cup Key Trends

18/19 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
17/19 – Aged 5 or younger
17/19 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
14/19 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
13/19 – Came from stall 9 or higher
13/19 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Carried 9-3 or less
11/19 – Top 4 finish in their previous race
11/19 – Aged 4 years-old
10/19 – Officially rated between 99-105
9/19 – Had run at York before
6/19 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
3/19 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
3/19 – Trained by William Haggas
2/19 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (2 of last 8)
2/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Since 1960 just one winner older than 6
9 of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 11.5/1

TQ VERDICT: 17 of the last 19 winners were aged 5 or younger, so the older runners in the race - Johnny Drama, Nicholas T, Cockalorum, Data Protection, Victory Chime and What’s The Story - have this to overcome - in fact, there’s been only one winner older than 6 since 1960! 12 of the last 19 winners carried 9-3 or less, so the top three on the card - Palavecino, Al Zaragaan and What’s The Story - fall down here. CD winner - Surrey Pride - is up 6lbs for a recent win here and with that also coming off a 188-day break can be expected to improve again. He gets in with the same racing weight too and should go well. The drop back to 1m2f will help Aaddeey, who hasn’t quite been getting home over 1m4f in recent runs. But the Stoute runner - ASTRO KING - is the most interesting of those at the head of the betting. He was a decent second in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot last time and gets in here off the same mark. He won his race that day on his side of the group and the step up in can eke out a bit more improvement. Of the rest, I think the Owen Burrows runner - DAWAAM (e/w) - can run well too. This 5 year-old wasn’t disgraced in a better race at Ascot last time (Listed Wolferton Stakes) so will find this drop in grade easier. Draw 19 and being aged 5 tick those trends and top jockey Jim Crowley rides him over the other Shadwell Estate runner - Al Zaragaan.

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