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21st October 2021

2021 Northumberland Plate Free Tips and Trends

Run at Newcastle racecourse over 2 miles the Northumberland Plate is one of the richest staying handicap races in the world.

Formerly known as the ‘Pitmen’s Derby’ the contest was first run in 1833 and being over 2 miles can often attract plenty of horses trained by National Hunt stables, while sponsors Betfair have supported the race now since 2019.

We’ve seen four winning favourites in the last 9 years.

We take a look back at past winners and highlight the key trends and statistics to look out for when going through the race– this year run on Saturday 26th June 2021

 

Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2020 – Caravan Of Hope (9/2 fav)
2019 – Who Dares Wins (12/1)
2018 - Withhold (5/1 fav)
2017 -  Higher Power (11/2)
2016 – Antiquarium (16/1)
2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Key Northumberland Plate Trends

18/19  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
18/19 – Finished fifth or better last time out
16/19 – Came from stall 14 or lower
16/19 – Aged 6 or younger
15/19 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
15/19 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
11/19 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/19 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
7/19 – Won by a National Hunt yard
5/19 – Won their previous race
5/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 13 winners)
3/19 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/19 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/19 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 6)
1/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 12.5/1
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 15 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Ten winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 4 of the last 9
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

TQ VERDICT: Onto the main race at Newcastle this Saturday and the first thing to note is that horses aged 9 or older don’t have a great record - this is bad news for Nicholas T, Watersmeet and Sir Chauvelin, who are all 9+ year-old. The class act in the race is clearly the Alan King runner - TRUESHAN - who was last seen running the useful Japan to ¾ of a length in the G3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester. He stays this 2m trip well too and despite having a big weight 10-4, connections are helping by booking Rhys Clutterbuck to ride and claim 5lbs. He’s also won before carrying a big weight (9st 12lbs) and is 1-from-1 on the AW having won at Wolverhampton back in 2019. It won’t be easy with having to give the weight away, but I’ll take his class to see him through. The main dangers look to be Dubious Affair, who was very unlucky (2nd) at Ascot last time out over 1m6f, but the 2m trip would be a slight concern for this Charlie Fellowes runner. Reshoun won the Ascot Stakes over 2m4f so staying will be fine, but he’s up 5lbs more here for that success. Australis was runner-up in this 12 months ago and can go well again, but it’s worth pointing out he’s rated 10lbs higher now. Themaxwecan, Watersmeet, Lucky Deal, Hochfeld and Mildenberger represent the Mark Johnston yard that are always respected in races like this and of that bunch their LUCKY DEAL (e/w) could go well at a price. He’s been out of sorts recently, but the return to the AW might spark him back to life. He’s a CD winner here at the track too and his overall AW record is not too shabby with 12 runs, 5 wins, and 8 top three finishes. Andrew Breslin helps by taking off a handy 5lbs too. Grandmaster Flash comes over from the powerful Joseph O’Brien yard and will be interesting in the market, but it’s another Alan King runner - RAINBOW DREAMER (e/w) - that is the final one to have onside. Jim Crowley has been booked to ride and with 6 wins from 11 starts on the AW the return to Newcastle will suit. He was also a fair 5th in the race last season and is only 3lbs higher this time - he was a bit keen that day, so if settling a bit better will have a stronger chance of getting home this time.

 

 

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