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24th April 2024

2021 Vertem Futurity Trophy Free Tips and Trends

The Vertem Futurity Trophy is staged each year at Doncaster racecourse and is for 2 year-olds only.

The Group One race is run over a distance of 1m and is an excellent guide and trial to the following year’s Classics, in particular the 2,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby - backed up in recent years with High Chaparral, Motivator, Authorized and, most-recently, Camelot all winning the Vertem Futurity Trophy before going onto take the Epsom Derby the next season, while recent winners – Saxon Warrior, Magna Grecia and Kameko - went onto land the 2,000 Guineas the following season.

Jockey Andrea Atzeni has also been having a cracking time in the race in recent years – winning it 4 times in the last 8 years, while trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 9 times.

Here at TQ we take a look back at recent winners and highlights the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 23rd October.

Vertem Futurity Trophy Winners

2020 - Mac Swiney (12/1)
2019 – Kameko (11/2)
2018 – Magna Grecia (2/1 fav)
2017 – Saxon Warrior (13/8 fav)
2016 – Rivet (11/4)
2015 – Marcel (33/1)
2014 – Elm Park (13/8 fav)
2013 – Kingston Hill (7/2 fav)
2012 – Kingsbarns (15/8 fav)
2011 – Camelot (10/11 fav)
2010 – Casamento (2/1 fav)
2009 – St Nicholas Abbey (13/8 fav)
2008 – Crowded House (7/1)
2007 – Ibn Khaldun (11/4 fav)
2006 – Authorized (25/1)
2005 – Palace Episode (20/1)
2004 – Motivator (6/4 fav)
2003 – American Post (5/6 fav)
2002 – Brian Boru (11/8 fav)

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Newbury
Note: The 2019 renewal was staged at Newcastle


Vertem Futurity Trophy Betting Trends

17/19 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
16/19 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
16/19 – Placed favourites
16/19 - Foaled in February or later
15/19 – Finished in the top two last time out
15/19 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/19 – Had raced at least twice previously
12/19 – Winning favourites
12/19 – Foaled in either Feb or March
12/19 – Ran at either the Curragh or Newmarket last time out
11/19 – Won their last race
10/19 – Had won over a mile in the past
8/19 – Won by an Irish-based yard
6/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/19 – Won by a Montjeu-bred colt
4/19 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (won 4 of the last 8)
4/19 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas (inc the last 3 winners)
3/19 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
1/19 – Went onto win the St Leger
Five winners have gone onto win the following season’s Epsom Derby
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 9 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017 & 2018
The average SP in the last 19 runnings is 13/2



TQ VERDICT: A race the Aidan O’Brien yard have farmed in recent years - winning the prize a staggering nine times. With that in mind, their LUXEMBOURG is the call here to make it win number 10 in this end-of-season Group One. The vibes coming out of the Ballydoyle camp are strong for this juvenile, who heads here 2-from-2 after easy wins at Killarney and the Curragh. The last of those was a smooth 4 ¾ length success in a G2 over a mile so it might take a good performance from one of the others to stop him remaining unbeaten. Of the rest, the Johnston runner - Royal Patronage - continues to improve and heads here having won the G3 and G2 Acomb and Royal Lodge Stakes. He’s a bold front runner, but you feel that he might just be setting the race up for something with a bit more stamina. Bayside Boy and Imperial Fighter are others to respect, but it’s interesting the Donnacha O’Brien yard, from Ireland, also send over SISSOKO (e/w). This 2 year-old was a nice 6l winner at the Curragh last time out over a bit further and that proven stamina will be a plus in what could turn out to be testing conditions.