2021 Scottish Grand National Trends For Punters To Profit
You might still be celebrating having the recent Grand National winner at Aintree or contemplating what could have been if you felt your selection was unlucky.
However, the Grand National bandwagon continues in April as we get set for the final one on the jumps horse racing calendar – the Coral-sponsored SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL – this year run on Saturday April 17th at Ayr racecourse.
As, we all know the main National is the one at Aintree, but the Scottish version is up there as a close second with the Irish and Welsh renewals so it’s still a fascinating race.
Run over 4m, which is around 2 furlongs shorter than last weeks, but with 27 fences to jump too then it goes without saying stamina will still very much be the order of the day.
There will be a maximum of 30 runners too so – just like all the other Nationals a certain amount of luck is also required for runners and riders to avoid any fallers or loose horses.
However, being first run in 1858 and having a long history then there are also plenty of trends for punters to take in and hopefully use to find the best profiles of past winners.
For example…………………Did you know that ALL of the last 17 winners ran within the last 57 days, while 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 8 or older?
So, to help we’ve got the main ‘plus and minus’ 17 year trends to apply to the Scottish Grand National runners – by just following these simple rules you’ll at least have the make-up of past Scottish Grand National winners on your side when placing your bets.
Weight Watchers: The main cut-off point here is 10st9lbs. We’ve seen 12 0f the last 16 winners carry 10-9 or less in weight. However, it is worth noting that 3 of the last 6 winners carried 11-3 or more, while last year’s hero – Joe Farrell – won with 10st 6lbs.
Staying Power: Stamina is an absolute must-have when scanning down the entries – after all the race is over 4m! This is backed-up with 10 of the last 16 winners having won previously over 3m1f or further, while 5 of the last 16 had won over 3m7f or longer in their careers.
Recent Form: Coming into the race off the back of a fairly recent run, plus a decent finish last time out is another thing to look for. In the last 16 years a massive 14 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 6 in their most recent race, while 5 of the last 16 won last time out.
Age Concern: Experience is often seen as a big plus in any staying race but it’s not so key here. Yes, you really need to be 8 or older as we’ve seen 14 of the last 16 winners aged between 8 and 11 years old. We have, however, seen a few 7 year-olds take the race more recently (2013 and 2016) so you can’t totally rule out this age group but with just one 12 year-old (or older) winning since 1947 then really we can put a line through any of the older statemen in the race.
Who’s Your Favourite: The betting on the Scottish Grand National is always a competitive race and this year is expected to be no different. However, with just 1 winning favourite in the last 16 runnings then it’s not always been a kind race for punters that like to support the market leaders.
Market Toppers: We’ve already talked about the actual favourite, but this Scottish Grand National stat can be taken a bit further when you actually drill down into recent runnings. So, despite not many market leaders winning we’ve still seen 10 of the last 16 winners hail from the top 7 in the market, while 3 of the last 16 winners actually returned 15/2. We have had 12 of the last 16 winners return a double-figure price though (75%), including last year’s winner – Joe Farrell (33/1) - but if this is linked into the fact most have come from the top 7 horses in the market then really the price range to focus on is more like 10/1 to 16/1.
Fitness First: Probably the biggest trend in recent years, and a really easy way to whittle the 30 strong field down in one easy swoop, is just check how many days ago your fancy last ran. With ALL of the last 16 winners having raced in the last 57 days then we can quickly rule several out here. Yes, it’s always wise to give this stat a 2 or 3 day leeway for obvious reasons but we should still be able to knock out a fair few.
Recent Scottish Grand National Winners
2020 – No Race (Covid)
2019 – TAKINGRISKS (25/1)
2018 – JOE FARRELL (33/1)
2017 – VICENTE (9/1 jfav)
2016 – VICENTE (14/1)
2015 – WAYWARD PRINCE (25/1)
2014 – AL CO (40/1)
2013 – GODSMEJUDGE (12/1)
2012 – MERIGO (15/2)
2011 – BESHABAR (15/2)
2010 – MERIGO (18/1)
2009 – HELLO BUD (12/1)
2008 – IRIS de BALME (66/1)
2007 – HOT WELD (14/1)
2006 – RUN FOR PADDY (33/1)
2005 – JOES EDGE (20/1)
2004 – GREY ABBEY (12/1)
2003 – RYALUX (15/2)
Scottish Grand National Trends and Stats
17/17 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
15/17 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
15/17 – Aged 8 or older
14/17 – French or Irish bred
13/17 – Carried 10-9 or less
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/17 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
12/17 – Finished in the first three last time out
12/17 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
11/17 – Had won over 3m1f or further
11/17 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
10/17 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
7/17 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/17 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
2/17 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 4 winners)
1/17 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 8 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 21/1
TQ VERDICT: The 8 year-old – Aye Right – will be popular here after his decent third in the Ultima Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s a course winner too and will be fine on the ground. Prior to that last run he was also a solid second in the SkyBet Chase at Doncaster, but even though he’s a very consistent chaser, he’s still only won the once from 8 runs over fences. He’s also got a fair amount of weight – 11st 11lbs. Vintage Clouds was the winner of the already-mentioned Ultima Handicap, but is 7lbs worse off with Aye Right here and – if running – is another that would have a lot of weight (11st 12lbs) – 13 of the last 17 winners carried 10-9 or less. The Paul Nicholls camp have a decent recent record in the race – they’ve won 2 of the last 4 runnings. They had three entered earlier in the week but pin their sole hopes on SOLDIER OF LOVE (e/w). He was pulled up last time out at Cheltenham (Nov), but before that ran the useful Galvin to 7 lengths and has been kept fresh for this. He’ll love the better ground and has gone well off a break in the past. Any ran would be a negative, but he’d probably be pulled out if there was a lot of the wet stuff anyway. However, if the ground continues to dry out then his chance will increase further and even though the trip is a bit of an unknown, he’s won over 3m2f twice to suggest it’s within range. Eider Chase winner – Sam’s Adventure – is another to respect, but an 8lb hike in the ratings makes life a lot harder here, while he might prefer a slightly softer surface. With 15 of the last 17 winners aged 8 or older, then (if running) the Alan King-trained 7 year-old would have this trend to overcome - the Newland-trained Engarde and the Irish radier - Mister Fogpatches are the only two 7 year-olds in the race. Others to respect are Dingo Dollar, who is now with the Sandy Thomson yard, and was a nice winner at Newcastle last time out. Mighty Thunder is another that race well in the Midlands National (2nd) and even off a 5lb higher mark has to be respected. But the other of interest is the Nicky Richards-trained CHAPEL STILE (e/w). This 9 year-old was a nice winner at Carlisle last time out and even though he's up 6lbs for that gets into this better race with just 10-8 to carry. The yard won this race the last time it was run too, while the better ground is fine and he's a proven winner at the track. The only slight unknown in the longer trip, but having won in heavy ground at Carlisle, which is a stiff track, last time suggests he's worth a crack over this distance on this better surface. Ryan Day rides.