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25th September 2021

2021 Sovereign Stakes Free Tips and Trends

Staged at Salisbury racecourse the Sovereign Stakes is a Group Three race run over 1m, with just over £42,000 on offer to the winner.

First run in 2000 the contest is the highest-classed race run at Salisbury and in recent years trainers Richard Hannon and Andrew Balding are the yards to follow – they’ve won the race three times each since 2001.

We take a look at the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Thursday 12th August. Did you know 16 of the last 18 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting?

 

Recent Sovereign Stakes Winners

2020 - REGAL REALITY (7/1)
2019 – KICK ON (9/2)
2018 - PLUMATIC (3/1)
2017 - BALLET CONCERTO (5/2)
2016 – ZONDERLAND (4/1)
2015 – KODI BEAR (11/4 fav)
2014 – CAPTAIN CAT (11/2)
2013 – AFSARE (9/4 fav)
2012 – TULLIUS (11/4)
2011 – SIDE GLANCE (2/1 fav)
2010 – SEA LORD (7/2)
2009 – MAC LOVE (25/1)
2008 – ORDNANCE ROW (5/1)
2007 – PRIDE OF NATION (5/2 fav)
2006 – BELENUS (11/10 fav)
2005 – LAYMAN (9/2)
2004 – NORSE DANCER (3/1)
2003 – PASSING GLANCE (6/1)

Sovereign Stakes Betting Trends

16/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Had won over a mile (or further) before
16/18 – Aged 5 or younger
13/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/18 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/18 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/18 – Had won at least 4 times before
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
10/18 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
9/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/18 – Raced at Ascot (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Had raced at Salisbury before (3 won)
5/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/18 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/18 - Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 5/1
Richard Hannon has won the race in 2001, 2002 & 2008
Andrew Balding has won the race in 2003, 2011 & 2012

TQ VERDICT: With 16 of the last 18 winners aged 5 or younger that is not ideal for Oh This Is Us (8) and Accidental Agent (7), while with 12 of the last 18 winners aged 3 or 4 this is better news for Mums Tipple, King Vega, Megallan and Perotto. Of that bunch, the interesting one is the Gosden runner - MEGALLAN. Yes, he flopped in the French Derby last time out, but that was on soft ground and a hot G1 contest. Prior to that he was a close second in the G2 Dante Stakes to the useful Hurricane Lane, who has since franked the form by running third in the Derby and landing two Group One’s. Being a 3 year-old he also gets a handy 7lbs off the older horses and 10lbs off Oh This Is Us. Of the rest, the Stoute yard have done well in this race over the years, so their Solid Stone has to be considered and is the top-rated in the field too. The other to have on side though is the William Knight runner - SIR BUSKER, who deserves to win at Group level after a string of places. He ran the classy Palace Pier to 2 ½ lengths at Royal Ascot in the Queen Anne Stakes and on that form he’d be hard to keep out of the shake-up.

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