AINTREE Free Tips and Trends – DAY ONE (Thurs 7th April 2022)

A top week for horse racing fans as the three-day Aintree Grand National Meeting kicks-off on Thursday 7th April 2022 with the ITV cameras showing five races LIVE each day.

We get started on DAY ONE with the Betway Bowl, Aintree Hurdle and the Foxhunters’ Chase are some of the key highlights so there is plenty to look forward to.

As always with the big meetings here at TQ we've all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Let’s get cracking…………………….

 

Aintree Trends (ITV/Racing TV)

2.20pm – Jewson Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle 4yo Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo) 2m1f ITV

15/18 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
15/18 – Placed in the top three last time out
12/18 – Raced in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
12/18 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
8/18 – Winning favourites
7/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Won by trainer Alan King (4-from-7 since 2007)
4/18 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/18  - Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (2 of last 3)
2/18 – Irish-trained winners
12/16 winners were placed at worst at the Cheltenham Festival
French-bred horses have won 12 of the last 22 (55%) runnings – including 5 of the last 6
14/21 winners raced in the Triumph Hurdle earlier that season
Just 5/31 winners hadn’t won at least twice over hurdles before

Brazil just got up to land the Boodles Juvenile Hurdle last time out - beaten a fair looking sort in Gaelic Warrior. But the run of PIED PIPER, who was third in the Triumph, looks slightly stronger form. The winner that day - Vauban - looks well above average so to be beaten just under 3 lengths still wasn't a bad effort. Of the rest. the Jonjo O'Neill runner - PETIT TONNERRE (e/w) - can go best of the rest having caught the eye when winning well at Market Rasen last time.

2.55pm – Betway Bowl Chase Grade 1 (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m1f ITV

16/18 – Didn’t win last time out
14/18 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
11/18 – Ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) last time out
10/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
6/18 – Aged in double-figures
6/18 – Winning favourites (5 of the last 6)
4/18 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/18 - Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
4/7 – Won that season’s King George
4/7 – Were the top-rated horse in the field
10 of the last 12 (83%) winners aged 9 or younger
9 of the last 11 winners returned 7/2 or shorter
Trainer Willie Mullins is 2-from-4 in the race
26/37 (70%) winners ran in that season’s King George
25/37 (68%) winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
14/24 (58%) winners were placed fourth or better in that season’s King George VI Chase
Just 4 of the last 25 winners were Irish-trained
9 of the last 11 winners were favourite or second favourite
2nd or 3rd favourites have won 13 of the last 28 (46%) renewals and 6 of the last 11 (55%)
5 of the last 10 winners had run in this race before
No last-time out winner since 2010

Some old faces on show here. The last two winners of the race - Clan Des Obeaux and Kemboy - have cases but are not getting any younger at 10. Conflated was a nice winner of the Irish Gold Cup back in Feb, but fell in the Ryanair Chase last time at the Festival so needs to bounce back. Eldorado Allen has improved this season and rates a player on his third in the Ryanair, but the two I like here are PROTEKTORAT and ROYALE PAGAILLE (e/w). The former was last seen running third in the Gold Cup at the Fesitval, but returns to Aintree - a track he's 2-from-2 at. This Dan Skelton runner is still only 7 and should have more to come. Royale Pagaille might like a bit more rain, but a recent 5th at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup was another solid effort and looks the sort to enjoy the Aintree track.

3.30pm – Betway Aintree Hurdle Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

17/18 – Aged 8 or younger
14/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
11/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/18 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle last time out
10/18 – Irish-trained winners, plus 20 of the last 44
5/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
4/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (4 of the last 10)
23 of the last 27 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
14 of the last 27 (52%) winners trained in Ireland
30 of the last 44 (68%) winners ran in that season’s Champion Hurdle
7 of the last 11 winners (64%) were placed in the top 4 of that season’s Champion Hurdle
12 of the last 15 winners (including last 9) had won a Grade 1 before
9 of the last 20 (45%) winners had won at this meeting before
Only 5 Champion Hurdle winners since 1999 have run – but 3 won
Every past British-trained winner had raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just 2 winning 5 year-olds in the last 32 runnings
Just 1 of the last 18 Champion Hurdle runners-up to race have won

Monmiral won on this card last year but hasn't really kicked on this season. CD winner - Brewin'upastorm - has a chance and wears the first time cheekpieces. But Champion hurdle third - Zanahiyr - and second EPATANTE - looks the two to focus on, with the call the last-named. This 8 year-old former Champion Hurdle winner gets the handy 7lbs mares' allowance again here and that can be the difference. She is stepping up to 2m4f here for the first time too, but it looks likely to suit on this flatter track. Of the rest, this season's Betfair Hurdle winner - GLORY AND FORTUNE (e/w) - can got well at a nice price after running an 8 3/4 length 5th in the Champion Hurdle, with the longer trip a plus.

4.05pm – The Randox Health Fox Hunters´ Chase (Class 2) (6yo+) 2m5f ITV1

18/18 – Aged 9 or older (Just 2 of the last 35 winners were younger than 9)
14/18 – Aged in double-figures
13/18 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/18 – Won last time out
7/18 – Ran in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/18 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
14 of the last 16 (88%) winners were aged 10 or older
Irish-trained runners have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
4 of the last 7 winners were placed in the top 4 in last season’s race
19 of the last 28 (68%) winners went off favourite or second favourite
23 of the last 28 winners had won a race earlier that season
Only 2 of the last 37 winners were aged younger than 9
22 of the last 28 (79%) winners came from the top 4 in the market and returned at single-figures in the betting.
10 of the last 16 winners had run over these National-style fences before
Ex-handicap horses have won 13 of the last 19 (68%) renewals

JETT was a fine 8th in the Grand National last year and despite now being an 11 year-old has done well in Hunter Chase races this season and looks to have an obvious chance here. This Robert Waley-Cohen runner is the top-rated in the field and after not staying 3m2f last time at Fontwell, the drop back to 2m5f will help. We know the fences are fine and he'll have the experienced Sam Waley-Cohen, who has won this race in the past, in the saddle. Of the rest, last year's winner - Cousin Pascal - has to be considered, while Cat Tiger, Porlock Bay and Latenightpass are others to note. But MIGHTY STOWAWAY (e/w) is another that should like the shorter trip here after running well for a long way in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham, but fading late on (3rd). He was also 10th in this race last year so that experience of the fences is a bonus.

4.40pm – Red Rum Handicap Chase Grade 3 (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV

17/18 – Aged 9 or younger
16/18 – Carried 11-1 or less
13/18 – Carried 10-13 or less
13/18 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Unplaced last time out
10/18 – Aged 7 or younger
9/18 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
4/18 – Winning favourites (1 co)
4/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Irish-trained winners
14 of the last 19 winners returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
17 of the last 21 winners were rated 139 or lower
Only 2 winners older than 9 years-old since 1988
4 of the last 13 winners were ridden by conditional jockeys
The top 5 in the betting have won 16 of the last 23 (69%) runnings
19 of the last 21 (90%) winners carried 11-2 or less
7 of the last 22 (32%) winners ran in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (Cheltenham)
6 of the last 7 winners DIDN’T run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
5 of the last 6 winners were Irish-bred
Respect trainer Henry De Bromhead – winner 2019 and 3 placed horses

A tricky race to end, with many chances. Grand Annual winner - Global Citizen - did it well the last day but is up 7lbs for that and the quicker ground will be a different test here. Before Midnight and Gunsight Ridge have consistent profiles, while Sky Pirate should find this better ground more to his liking and is dropping back to a fair mark. Dolos and the only CD winner in the field - The Last Day - are noted, but the two here are KING D'ARGENT (e/w) and FRERO BANBOU (e/w). The former returned to form last time with a fine second at Donny to Bun Doran, who he takes on again. But was only a neck down that day and is expected to reverse that form. Frero Banbou was third in the Grand Annual to Global Citizen but kept on well that day and is only up a pound in the ratings. This Venetia Williams-trained 7 year-old has run 12 times over fences (4 wins) and only been out of the top three twice.

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